The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread

[Silver Surfer]

I think $1.6B would have been a good target before the film came out. As long as it doesn’t make less than say $1.4B then all is still fine.

It can't come under Ultron, that has to be the breaking point. I'm hopeful it passes TA1 due to the positive bump it got yesterday.

 

[Iceman]

It can't come under Ultron, that has to be the breaking point. I'm hopeful it passes TA1 due to the positive bump it got yesterday.

Yeah, that would be a bad look given the difference between their prior films.

 

[Shadow Moses]

1.2b. just around civil war.

 

[TheVileOne]

Only 31 movies have ever made over $1 billion worldwide.

 

[cristianegan]

Overseas number is already behind domestic number. Maybe Rogue One all over again with DOM>OS

 

[Iceman]

There're only a handful of types of films that would have even aimed for a billion up to now. But some of those would expect to sleepwalk to that number.

 

[TheVileOne]

There're only a handful of types of films that would have even aimed for a billion up to now. But some of those would expect to sleepwalk to that number.

So it didn't do it in a week, but isn't a billion in this time period basically sleepwalking over it?

 

[gerrym51]

Overseas number is already behind domestic number. Maybe Rogue One all over again with DOM>OS

In the movies defense-Christmas day overseas is actually treated as a holiday. Most theaters were closed . I read this on BOT.

Overseas fell behind because of that.

 

[cristianegan]

In the movies defense-Christmas day overseas is actually treated as a holiday. Most theaters were closed . I read this on BOT.

Overseas fell behind because of that.

That's true but the Tuesday's OS number is also $4 million behind that of DOM.

 

[Iceman]

So it didn't do it in a week, but isn't a billion in this time period basically sleepwalking over it?

Yes. This is one of the examples I was referring to of a film that should expect to and will sleepwalk to a billion.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

I'm gonna say this movie will end its global run between Avengers 1 and 2.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Disney, themselves, said they weren't expecting TFA numbers.

 

[cristianegan]

I'm gonna say this movie will end its global run between Avengers 1 and 2.

Didn't you vote $2 billion+ in the poll?

 

[Romannen]

The numbers wouldn't be this high if word of mouth wasn't good. The hate for TLJ is overblown.

 

[Flemm]

Different films have different expectations. For some franchises, a billion dollars is the dream scenario. For many others, it's essentially impossible.

In the case of this movie, and maybe a couple of other things, like Avengers, it's basically a given. That does make it a little hard to evaluate also, as there aren't many points of comparison.

Something like Infinity War could do well over a billion and still disappoint. So it's not *only* Star Wars. But there are only a couple of other things in the same ballpark.

 

[Agent Orange]

Avengers: Infinity War feels like it will push or exceed the box office of the original Avengers, at least domestically. The YouTube views for the trailer were just silly 2 days after it dropped.

On a personal level, MCU fatigue has set in (it was always there save for a few films) and I'll wait until interest dies down before I see it. I'm really looking forward to Black Panther, though.

 

[Iceman]

Yes IW/A4 have a chance of pushing out further depending on how things go from now till release.

 

[fancyarcher]

Avengers: Infinity War feels like it will push or exceed the box office of the original Avengers, at least domestically. The YouTube views for the trailer were just silly 2 days after it dropped.

On a personal level, MCU fatigue has set in (it was always there save for a few films) and I'll wait until interest dies down before I see it. I'm really looking forward to Black Panther, though.

It's highly unlikely it'll have the legs of Avengers though. If anything it's primed to open big and collapse the weekend after. I'm thinking around 550m for Infinity War myself, so not as much as The Avengers. The trailers are big, but I doubt legs are great, regardless of quality.

 

[Lord]

The numbers wouldn't be this high if word of mouth wasn't good. The hate for TLJ is overblown.

With something like Star Wars the first few weeks would have gigantic numbers anyway. What shows how good the word of mouth truly is are it's legs. Unfortunately, the film's box office gross is starting to show the mixed reactions. People are talking so much about the mixed reactions because they haven't come from a single source.

Let's be real, Last Jedi is making an obscene amount of money. More than most other franchises would dream of. But just like Age of Ultron, it's not being as universaly liked as it's predecessor and seems to be making a bit less because of that. The franchise isn't doomed or anything and the film technicaly is a massive success.

I doubt a Star Wars film will touch Force Awakens's gross for a long time. Which makes me wonder which film will finaly top Titanic post-3D re-release or even get near Avatar. Only real contenders are Avengers 3/4 or one of the Avatar Sequels.

 

[TheVileOne]

Maybe Avatar 2

 

[Lilbaz]

Maybe Avatar 2

Avatar was unique. First proper use of new technology, director had just made a fantastic film that was very popular with women, was a sci fi so also popular with men, also was child friendly. Biggest budget ever.

It basically had universal appeal. There are quite a few people who don't like super hero movies or star wars.

 

[Romannen]

With something like Star Wars the first few weeks would have gigantic numbers anyway. What shows how good the word of mouth truly is are it's legs.

But isn't "legs" everything after the OW and onward? In that case, it's doing very well too.

 

[spiderman2]

Just $156 million to go!

http://deadline.com/2017/12/star-wa...-results-international-box-office-1202232602/

Any idea what day that will be? Yesterday was day 12 and TFA took 12 days to reach a billion the fastest to do so. A few days ago I was guessing this movie would take 15 days to do so. For it to do that it would have to hit that number by the end of Friday. Is that a little to soon? Maybe Sat day 16 is more likely? Or even Sunday day 17? Any idea what its wed numbers are yet?

 

[spiderman2]

Only 31 movies have ever made over $1 billion worldwide.

That may be true but like I have said and like I am sure other people have said a billion is not has impressive has it used to be. It used to be if you made like 900 million to like a billion you would be the number one boxoffice movie that year now that may not be good enough to get you number 1. Then look at how many of those movies that have done a billion + have came just sinces like 2011 the begging of this decade. Sinces the start of that year there have been 20 movies to do it. When TLJ get there that will be 21. Point being a billion is not what it used to be. In another few years most likely the big movies each year will start making more like 1.2-1.5 billion.

 

[spiderman2]

1.2b. just around civil war.

Man if it does that would be a big time disappointment. That would be like a 800 million drop that is a lot no matter how impressive or big TFA may have been having that kind of drop is not good at all.

Overseas number is already behind domestic number. Maybe Rogue One all over again with DOM>OS

Wow you are right that is not good at all. I know its over all numbers are not has high has this movie but I think Spider-Man HC OS daily numbers didn't drop behind Domestic numbers in till the movie had been out for like 4 weeks or something and this movie is already kind of doing that and has only been out for 13 days and with China being the only place yet to have the movie and not looking like it is going to make big numbers or any thing there its not like those OS numbers have some yet to be big boost coming up or any thing soon.