The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread

[spiderman2]

Avengers: Infinity War feels like it will push or exceed the box office of the original Avengers, at least domestically. The YouTube views for the trailer were just silly 2 days after it dropped.

On a personal level, MCU fatigue has set in (it was always there save for a few films) and I'll wait until interest dies down before I see it. I'm really looking forward to Black Panther, though.

Things like MCU, CBM fatigue is 100% fake its all about how good the movies are not how often they come out. Me I am not has big of a MCU fan has a lot of people because I find most of the MCU movies to be much worse then most people think. Its a unpopular opinion but a lot of the MCU movies I find to be ok/bad. Even with that said though I fell like MCU movies are getting better has the better ones I fell like have came out in just the last few years with movies like Doctor strange and the last 2 Cap movie and Spider-Man HC. They are by far the best MCU movies to me and those 4 have all came out in just the last like 4 years or so. Also Black Panther looks amazing and so does Avengers Ifitit war.

 

[spiderman2]

With something like Star Wars the first few weeks would have gigantic numbers anyway. What shows how good the word of mouth truly is are it's legs. Unfortunately, the film's box office gross is starting to show the mixed reactions. People are talking so much about the mixed reactions because they haven't come from a single source.

Let's be real, Last Jedi is making an obscene amount of money. More than most other franchises would dream of. But just like Age of Ultron, it's not being as universaly liked as it's predecessor and seems to be making a bit less because of that. The franchise isn't doomed or anything and the film technicaly is a massive success.

I doubt a Star Wars film will touch Force Awakens's gross for a long time. Which makes me wonder which film will finaly top Titanic post-3D re-release or even get near Avatar. Only real contenders are Avengers 3/4 or one of the Avatar Sequels.

Hard to say but I don't think Avatar Sequels are really going to do it I see them dropping a lot. For a movie that was so successful Avatar gets a lot of hate and a big reason it did so while was its 3d effects and with 3d being something that like goes up and down in popularity I see the Avatar sequles doing a lot less and a lot of people are saying why to a Avatar sequel. Who knows maybe some movie will come out and be a big surprise out of like now where. I don't think any one thought Avatar would do even close to the kind of numbers it did.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Any idea what day that will be? Yesterday was day 12 and TFA took 12 days to reach a billion the fastest to do so. A few days ago I was guessing this movie would take 15 days to do so. For it to do that it would have to hit that number by the end of Friday. Is that a little to soon? Maybe Sat day 16 is more likely? Or even Sunday day 17? Any idea what its wed numbers are yet?

I’d say Sunday, give or take a day. Haven’t seen Weds. numbers yet but I’m expecting it to drop.

 

[InCali]

I’d say Sunday, give or take a day. Haven’t seen Weds. numbers yet but I’m expecting it to drop.

I know this is an unusual time of year, but wouldn't a usual Tues-Wed drop be in the range of about 30%? Maybe tomorrow will be softer because of people being out of school, and the weekend upswing would also be less dramatic. Seems reasonable to me anyway.

IF that's the case, a 30% drop from Tuesday numbers would still put TLJ comfortably over 20M. If that's the case, I think we could expect at least 3 of the next 4 days to also be over 20M. That puts TLJ well over 525M with New Year's Day yet to come.

We'll know more in 5 days, but that's sort of how I see things playing out.

What say you to that?

 

[dataSlave]

The good news is that the studio gets a higher percentage of the domestic gross box office than overseas ticket sales. So TLJ skewing less overeseas and more N America will give Disney higher revenue than the raw global number would suggest. That is even more true with the front end loaded BO since the split starts high and goes down as the movie continues to run.

The bad news is that the holds based on calendar aren't looking good. TFA did +15% from Christmas Day to 12/26. Rogue One was +24%. TLJ's +1% continues the under performance following the huge opening W/E. At this point calendar days are starting to trail RO though TLJ is one day further from the opening day. 12/26 was $27.7 mil for TLJ vs $31.2 mil for RO. It will do better than Rogue One but that looks mainly due to opening week.

 

[Warlock]

I'm predicting sub 1.2 billion now.

I don't understand why there are so many articles released in the last couple of days claiming it will still make over 1.6 and be top 5 of all time worldwide.

Like this:
http://www.slashfilm.com/star-wars-the-last-jedi-box-office-update/

and this:
https://www.**************.com/sci-...nd-its-theatrical-run-with-16-billion-a156585

It won't beat Beauty and the Beast to be the top film of 2017.

 

[Flemm]

Who knows maybe some movie will come out and be a big surprise out of like now where. I don't think any one thought Avatar would do even close to the kind of numbers it did.

Cameron has a history of that sort of thing, so I think it's difficult to predict. He also seems to relish trying to surpass expectations. It took a long time to get Avatar made, and now a long time for the sequel.

So I suppose he is probably trying to make a big splash again, rather than simply delivering an "ok" second installment.

I think it's anybody's guess, really.

 

[TheVileOne]

I'm predicting sub 1.2 billion now.

I don't understand why there are so many articles released in the last couple of days claiming it will still make over 1.6 and be top 5 of all time worldwide.

Like this:
http://www.slashfilm.com/star-wars-the-last-jedi-box-office-update/

and this:
https://www.**************.com/sci-...nd-its-theatrical-run-with-16-billion-a156585

It won't beat Beauty and the Beast to be the top film of 2017.

It's going to far surpass the domestic takes of Beauty and the Beast and Rogue One though.

 

[spiderman2]

I'm predicting sub 1.2 billion now.

I don't understand why there are so many articles released in the last couple of days claiming it will still make over 1.6 and be top 5 of all time worldwide.

Like this:
http://www.slashfilm.com/star-wars-the-last-jedi-box-office-update/

and this:
https://www.**************.com/sci-...nd-its-theatrical-run-with-16-billion-a156585

It won't beat Beauty and the Beast to be the top film of 2017.

Not sure if it will do 1.6 billion but I don't see how it will not do at least 1.2 billion. If it doesn't you really have to wonder what Disney is thinking has that is a crazy drop from TFA and if it only does like say 1.1 billion that is hardly more then RO and RO was a spin off. Really 1.1 would be like puthectic really.

Cameron has a history of that sort of thing, so I think it's difficult to predict. He also seems to relish trying to surpass expectations. It took a long time to get Avatar made, and now a long time for the sequel.

So I suppose he is probably trying to make a big splash again, rather than simply delivering an "ok" second installment.

I think it's anybody's guess, really.

That is true about Cameron but still.

 

[Warlock]

It's going to far surpass the domestic takes of Beauty and the Beast and Rogue One though.

I completely agree. I'm guessing 615-625 domestic but more like 560-575 OS.

 

[Aximili86]

Yeah, I didn't think much of Avatar outside of on a technical level, but anyone would be a moron to doubt Cameron. Guy's a one-of-a-kind freak, sure there's probably something major up his sleeves in terms of appealing to people, that second Avatar movie's still probably going to do Star Wars money.

 

[spiderman2]

I completely agree. I'm guessing 615-625 domestic but more like 560-575 OS.

I think you are really low balling this movie big time a 625 domesticly would be a multiplier of just 2.8 and for a December movie that is really really bad shouldn't be hard to get to a 3 meaning a 660 domestic told. OS for it to only get to 575 that would mean it would have to only get another 155 and the movie still hasn't came out in China. Yes it sounds like it is not going to do much in China but even if it only does like 45 million in China that would mean it would have to only do 110 the rest of the OS market and the movie has only been out for just under like 2 weeks and still has a holliday week this week and schools being out.

 

[TheVileOne]

It's got no real strong competition coming out other than Insidious, which is a horror film.

 

[spiderman2]

Yeah, I didn't think much of Avatar outside of on a technical level, but anyone would be a moron to doubt Cameron. Guy's a one-of-a-kind freak, sure there's probably something major up his sleeves in terms of appealing to people, that second Avatar movie's still probably going to do Star Wars money.

While even a big drop from the first avatar you could still see some big money has the amount it made espically WW is pretty crazy. I mean it did make about 2.8 billion WW so even a 1 billion drop would be 1.8 billion.

 

[Warlock]

I think you are really low balling this movie big time a 625 domesticly would be a multiplier of just 2.8 and for a December movie that is really really bad shouldn't be hard to get to a 3 meaning a 660 domestic told. OS for it to only get to 575 that would mean it would have to only get another 155 and the movie still hasn't came out in China. Yes it sounds like it is not going to do much in China but even if it only does like 45 million in China that would mean it would have to only do 110 the rest of the OS market and the movie has only been out for just under like 2 weeks and still has a holliday week this week and schools being out.

I'm comparing it to Rogue One, which had 64% of it's final domestic total by day 12 and also had great word of mouth. To say the WOM on TLJ is mixed would be fair. Thus I predicted it would not have as good legs from here on out. However we will have a better idea in another 2 weeks, so we shall see, I think any 1.4+ predictions are patently absurd..

 

[spiderman2]

625 USA sounds to low just like 3-4 days ago deadline had it at 750 now yes that number could fall but 125 fall from that prediction is a lot. Plus if you look at RO 625 would only be 92 million more then it and right now if you look at the same point in its run this movie is already 64 million ahead. So to get to 625 it would only need to gain another 28 on RO and if you look at Tuesday's numbers TLJ made a solid amount more then RO. We real need to see where this movie is at by the end of this weekend though. Also if you look at JW a movie that made 652 in USA at the same point in time after its 2nd Tuesday it is only about 4 million behind told and had a much much higher 2nd Tuesday then JW and also still has another holliday later in its run in MLKD where the only holliday that JW had was 4th of July weekend.

 

[TheVileOne]

Yeah even I won't discount the box office potential for Cameron and Avatar 2. I think it's insane it's taken this long just to get one sequel. But I still think by the time it comes out it will still make a lot of money. Doubting James Cameron is always a mistake.

 

[spiderman2]

I'm comparing it to Rogue One, which had 34% of it's final domestic total by day 12 and also had great word of mouth. To say the WOM on TLJ is mixed would be fair. Thus I predicted it would not have as good legs from here on out. However we will have a better idea in another 2 weeks, so we shall see, I think any 1.4+ predictions are patently absurd..

While 1.6 may be high but 1.1-1.2 also sounds absurd to me. I could see like 1.3-1.5. When you talk about % of its domestic total by day 12 do you know what % of its WW told it had and how that compares to TFA? TFA had about half of its WW told by day 12 but that was with crazy legs. If this movie did that it would end at about 1.7 but I don't see it have those kind of legs of course. But yeah a like 800 million drop from TFA would be a big big time drop like to big of a drop. If you look at TLJ and its current USA number it took RO 17 days to get to what TLJ took 12 days to get to so a extra 5 days and also had part of its 2nd holiday weekend already which this movie has not had yet. That 92 million difference that the movie would need to make compared to TLJ to get to 625 may already be that much by the end of the holliday weekend.

 

[Warlock]

@Spiderman2 - I mistakenly put 34% initially when I meant 64% because sometimes I'm a bit special.

And as for the OS totals I''m not certain because I don't have that info. I was using boxofficemojo.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Why are we even talking about 1.2 billion? That's the doomsday scenario, nothing has indicated we are heading that way. Rock bottom right now is 1.35.

 

[spiderman2]

Because the numbers do keep kind of going down fells kind of the opisite of TFA in that way to.

 

[Warlock]

While 1.6 may be high but 1.1-1.2 also sounds absurd to me. I could see like 1.3-1.5. When you talk about % of its domestic total by day 12 do you know what % of its WW told it had and how that compares to TFA? TFA had about half of its WW told by day 12 but that was with crazy legs. If this movie did that it would end at about 1.7 but I don't see it have those kind of legs of course. But yeah a like 800 million drop from TFA would be a big big time drop like to big of a drop. If you look at TLJ and its current USA number it took RO 17 days to get to what TLJ took 12 days to get to so a extra 5 days and also had part of its 2nd holiday weekend already which this movie has not had yet. That 92 million difference that the movie would need to make compared to TLJ to get to 625 may already be that much by the end of the holliday weekend.

I spoke too soon. TFA had 48.25% of it's foreign total after the second weekend (546/1131M), thus if TLJ followed exactly the same legs which is highly doubtful, then it would make 788M (380.3/0.4825). Which if it did get to 660M Domestic would result in a 1.45Billion total. I am dubious at best.

I think the above scenario requires too many optimal variables, hence my 1.2 billion prediction, but definitely 1.2-1.3 IMO, no more.

 

[spiderman2]

I spoke too soon. TFA had 48.25% of it's foreign total after the second weekend (546/1131M), thus if TLJ followed exactly the same legs which is highly doubtful, then it would make 788M (380.3/0.4825). Which if it did get to 660M Domestic would result in a 1.45Billion total. I am dubious at best.

Didn't realize that TFA had less on its money from OS at one point in time then USA that is interesting.

 

[Warlock]

Didn't realize that TFA had less on its money from OS at one point in time then USA that is interesting.

No TFA had 540 Domestic vs 546 OS after it's first weekend (day 10 totals). Previously I was talking about Rogue One's domestic total at 532 million. I'm confusing myself too.

 

[TheVileOne]

There was a moment once where I really thought that Force Awakens could make a billion domestic