The Official Budget & Box Office Thread

[hopefuldreamer]

Also...
Superman Returns had a staggered release, which was an early Christmas present for the pirate DVD market, I had a DVD copy of Sr offered to me weeks before we got a release in the UK.

In the UK Superman returns was put up against POTC2 (which was suicide) it was also released in the middle of one of the hottest summers we've had in along long time (making folks less eager to sit in a hot movie theater)

In the UK Superman returns had some of the worst marketing I have ever seen for a movie.

Agreed with that.

I went to see it on the night it opened, and there were about 2 3rds of the seats still empty.

 

[Project862006]

is anyone else worried about MOS coming out 1 week later than "After Earth" it may be an m night film but it stars will smith and it is a big sci fi film

a breakdown of some will smith big blockbuster films

Independence Day $817,400,891
Men In Black $589,390,539
I Am Legend $585,349,010
Hancock $624,386,746

 

[DoomsdayApex]

M. Night...

Nuff said.

 

[matrix_ghost]

is anyone else worried about MOS coming out 1 week later than "After Earth" it may be an m night film but it stars will smith and it is a big sci fi film

a breakdown of some will smith big blockbuster films

Independence Day $817,400,891
Men In Black $589,390,539
I Am Legend $585,349,010
Hancock $624,386,746

If WB starts to promote this movie with money shots ( but not oversaturate the market a la spider-man 3) , it'll do fine regardless of the competition

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

M. Night...

Nuff said.

Starring Will Smith, the single biggest movie star in the world.

Nuff said.

 

[Rockstar]

Starring Will Smith, the single biggest movie star in the world.

Nuff said.

Yup. Will Smith alone will make this thing profitable. He has Box Office appeal. He's the Black guy for White people.

MoS is sandwiched between that big Will Smith blockbuster AND

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0816711/

"World War Z" starring Brad Pitt.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Starring Will Smith, the single biggest movie star in the world.

Nuff said.

...with M. Night directing. The name that has caused millions of people to laugh or groan by the mere mention of it in theaters all across America.

Nuff said.

Will Smith will be featured in MIB3, do you honestly think the film will make 500 million just because of Will Smith?

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

...with M. Night directing. The name that has caused millions of people to laugh or groan by the mere mention of it in theaters all across America.

Nuff said.

We get it. You hate M. Night. So do a lot of people - justifiably. But they'll look past it with Smith, not to mention his son, starring and the imagery/concept.

Will Smith will be featured in MIB3, do you honestly think the film will make 500 million just because of Will Smith?

I Am Legend did. Since the entire marketing centered on him. Nuff said.

Don't underestimate his appeal. Hell word on Men in Black 3 is its good. Screened about a month back and it killed.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

We get it. You hate M. Night. So do a lot of people - justifiably. But they'll look past it with Smith, not to mention his son, starring and the imagery/concept.

That I'm not so certain on. The name M. Night is a repellent. I'm not exaggerating either. I don't know anyone who paid to see his last two projects.

However, MoS could succumb to M. Night's film (crazier things have happened) but with Nolan's name attached to this project, and if the trailers and buzz are positive then I don't see it happening.

With that said, we've yet to see footage and promotions for both. So I sense it's better for me to wait until the marketing campaigns are launched.

I Am Legend did. Since the entire marketing centered on him. Nuff said.

Don't underestimate his appeal. Hell word on Men in Black 3 is its good. Screened about a month back and it killed.

Wha-?!

MIB3 was actually good?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Hell word on Men in Black 3 is its good. Screened about a month back and it killed.

I'm really shocked about this news. I hope that early word is right. I will be waiting for reviews though. I loved the first one and hated the second and don't plain on seeing the 3rd, unless it gets decent reviews.

 

[Micromind]

Yup. Will Smith alone will make this thing profitable. He has Box Office appeal. He's the Black guy for White people.

MoS is sandwiched between that big Will Smith blockbuster AND

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0816711/

"World War Z" starring Brad Pitt.

M. Night has made some decent movies earlier in his career, I liked Sixth Sense, Unbreakable and Signs, but he made some really bad movies too that caused last string of flop movies.

Every time a known director makes really bad movies means that some time he can bounce back (law of averages.)

If M.Night makes even a half decent attempt, his movie "After Earth" will make fair amount of cash, due to the star power of Will Smith.

So far none (okay, maybe a few) Will Smith movies have done badly at Box Office.

The other movie World War Z cannot be underestimated either, as Brad Pitt is the star Power here.

MOS is indeed sandwiched between these movies.

 

[Marvin]

At the same time, Night's films have been consistent bombs as of late, if any film has a chance of bombing next year it's that one. Moreover Smith is a big star no doubt but it's not like his films are making TF money. His films perform well and that's all.

As for Brad Pitt. It's great he's finally doing genre BUT, I hardly recall any of HIS films making all that much money. Both those films are the hard sells and both those films are the ones that have to look out for Snyderman.

 

[Prime]

Both those films are the hard sells and both those films are the ones that have to look out for Snyderman.

I agree. I also feel that even though MOS seemingly has a lot going against it, it also has a few things going for it and maybe even more.

The negative thing for MOS are (all IMO of course) :

1. The taint of Superman Returns and the general unpopularity of Superman from the GA - Though I don't know how they will respond when they see a trailer and see a Superman they never knew existed - in other words completely different from what they have in mind Superman is - basically what they've seen in either Reeve films or SR.

2. The release date - Maybe not the worst but not ideal either, but plenty has been written on that.

3. Zack Snyder - I may hold him in high regard and so does Nolan (and Cameron) but I mostly see negative comments about him coming from the GA. His last 3 films also either underperformed and in the case of Sucker Punch, flopped hard.

On the other hand, MOS has:

1. Christopher Nolan's name - The vast majority of people who disregard the idea of a new Superman movie get interested when they hear he is involved. If TDKR can match or surpass TDK and Nolan's name stays on the story/producer credits, and his name or ´´The creators of The Dark Knight trilogy`` this will benefit MOS, as Zack Snyder's name alone would be alarming.

2. The cast - While no single person is a big box office draw, together they may be the most impressive cast in a superhero movie to date. Plenty of Oscars and Oscar nomination, Golden Globes, Emmys etc between them. Appeals to a wide range of viewers. Who doesn't know Crowe and Costner? Shannon is getting more and more creed. Amy Adams. Lot's of people who know and like Meloni and Schiff from TV etc etc.

3. Action and VFX - I think MOS has the potential to be the most visually stunning movie of its kind. And while we don't yet know the scale of the action (how much destruction in Metropolis, how many - if any - Kryptonians will there be besides Zod and Faora, etc) even though it probably won't quite match the scale of something like Transformers or Avengers it will probably have the same effect on the audience and obviously insane action and great vfx = lot's of $$$ (not in all cases obviously).

The rest will fall on the marketing, which is not WB's strong point but they will have the benefit of having a finished movie on their hands before the real marketing frenzy starts, which means total freedom in selecting footage and no doggy cgi inside it.

And of course, word of mouth. If the movie gets bad buzz as being a typical bad Snyder movie it may be doomed - or the effects heavy action may save it.

And even though it is impossible to predict any numbers before we haven't seen anything, I see no reason why MOS couldn't do at least Iron Man numbers, or even Spider-Man (around 800mil worldwide) if all of the above works like it should. I know a lot of people think it is impossible but I don't think so at all. I think it could easily happen. Then again at this point I think MOS doing less than SR is also a possibility.

The teaser should give this topic some more boost. It will be one of the most important steps in the entire marketing of MOS. Because if the teaser fails to impress/generate interest, Zod help MOS.

 

[Marvin]

Strong movies today make more than strong movies in the past(a decade ago).

I believe if this is a big strong movie, it will make big strong numbers. The thing about Snyder is that on top of the "bad" word of mouth Watchmen got, who in the hell had any interest in a film that look that out there? It had to stand on it's merit alone.(GA merit that is.)

Superman is a different beast. There are at least double or triple the amount of people that have a passing interest in the base character. That and given that it won't be restricted, I see it not doing anything close to Watchmen numbers. I personally believe the strength of a reboot is that it's new and exciting. Who is this superman, who is this Pa Kent played by a great american actor, what's up with Crowe playing his father? Weta....anyone thinking this will do Returns numbers has got to be kidding.

A Superman film with actual set pieces?
A trailer with Superman of all characters in a modern fistfight?

let's not kid ourselves here.

 

[flickchick85]

Yeah, with Snyder's style/brand of action and this cast attached, it should be pretty obvious to all audiences, even from the first trailer, that this is a BRAND NEW cinematic take on Superman, and considering the character's longevity in pop culture, that should be enough to pique their curiosity and get them interested. Even more so if they use Nolan's name in the marketing (which, let's face it, is inevitable).

 

[matrix_ghost]

Strong movies today make more than strong movies in the past(a decade ago).

I believe if this is a big strong movie, it will make big strong numbers. The thing about Snyder is that on top of the "bad" word of mouth Watchmen got, who in the hell had any interest in a film that look that out there? It had to stand on it's merit alone.(GA merit that is.)

Superman is a different beast. There are at least double or triple the amount of people that have a passing interest in the base character. That and given that it won't be restricted, I see it not doing anything close to Watchmen numbers. I personally believe the strength of a reboot is that it's new and exciting. Who is this superman, who is this Pa Kent played by a great american actor, what's up with Crowe playing his father? Weta....anyone thinking this will do Returns numbers has got to be kidding. A Superman film with actual set pieces?
A trailer with Superman of all characters in a modern fistfight?

let's not kid ourselves here.

It's Snyder's job to make something that can be enjoyed by the general audience.
It's also the marketing departement task to promote the movie to such and extent that the general audience gets interested.

If one or both parties screw up , the BO numbers will be disappointing.

 

[flickchick85]

But I think Marvin's point is that this movie kinda markets itself better than SR. It's got the fresh take on the character, the Snyder action, the awesome cast, the Nolan name, and at first glance, a Superman who looks a lot more like Superman than SR's did.

The only thing working against this movie that SR didn't have working against it is, well...SR. I'm sure the shadow of that will hang over this one a little bit, but I think that factor is easily trumped by all those mentioned above. It WILL eclipse SR, I'm sure. As long as it's a decent movie, that is.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Weta....anyone thinking this will do Returns numbers has got to be kidding.

Other way around.

Such indifference to a new Superman movie that to earn $200M stateside would be viewed as a realistic, best-case scenario. History has proven you can't underestimate how people reacted to the previous film and Superman Returns was met with general indifference.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Other way around.

Such indifference to a new Superman movie that to earn $200M stateside would be viewed as a realistic, best-case scenario. History has proven you can't underestimate how people reacted to the previous film and Superman Returns was met with general indifference.

I agree, it isn't a slamdunk. I guess 7 years of inflation could help it but that usually doesn't. I think that they need a marketing plan that was as good as Star Trek.

I see Man of Steel and Star Trek as being in very similar situations as film franchises. Paramount took a dead franchise and made it cool again by allowing things to be mixed up and putting together a brilliant marketing plain to go along with their good film. I know some bulk at the mere mention of the word "cool" when it relates to Superman but the fact of the matter is the studio has to make the character seem cool again. I'm not talking about Poochie here, I mean real cool. You have to make the character seem less old school. That's what Abrams and co did, they made Star Trek seem cool to the vast majority of people who saw that film. Superman needs that.

 

[flickchick85]

I agree, it isn't a slamdunk. I guess 7 years of inflation could help it but that usually doesn't. I think that they need a marketing plan that was as good as Star Trek.

I see Man of Steel and Star Trek as being in very similar situations as film franchises. Paramount took a dead franchise and made it cool again by allowing things to be mixed up and putting together a brilliant marketing plain to go along with their good film. I know some bulk at the mere mention of the word "cool" when it relates to Superman but the fact of the matter is the studio has to make the character seem cool again. I'm not talking about Poochie here, I mean real cool. You have to make the character seem less old school. That's what Abrams and co did, the made Star Trek seem cool to the vast majority of people who saw that film. Superman needs that.

Agreed, that's a great analogy. For some reason, though, I have major confidence they'll be able to achieve that. I mean, I'm not really confident the actual movie's gonna be as much fun as Trek, but I do think from a marketing standpoint, with this cast/visuals/action, they should have no problem selling it as the "cool" version of Superman they were looking for.

 

[Showtime]

You made a Poochie reference?! Love it.

If Man Of Steel made around 230 - 240 million, which is Returns numbers adjusted for inflation, that is a big win for the studio. Avengers is blinding people into thinking these movies are bigger than they are box office wise, that is an exception. Think more along the lines of Thor, Captain, Last Stand, Wolverine, Begins, Returns.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Agreed, that's a great analogy. For some reason, though, I have major confidence they'll be able to achieve that. I mean, I'm not really confident the actual movie's gonna be as much fun as Trek, but I do think from a marketing standpoint, with this cast/visuals/action, they should have no problem selling it as the "cool" version of Superman they were looking for.

I too have a good feeling about the flick.

You made a Poochie reference?! Love it.

That's because we are Simpson freaks. Every time I bring up the word cool I get a few posters who misinterpret me and believe that I'm asking for Superman's to turn into something that he isn't.

If Man Of Steel made around 230 - 240 million, which is Returns numbers adjusted for inflation, that is a big win for the studio. Avengers is blinding people into thinking these movies are bigger than they are box office wise, that is an exception. Think more along the lines of Thor, Captain, Last Stand, Wolverine, Begins, Returns.

I agree expecting every comic book movie to do Avenger's or TDK numbers is silly, 230-240mil would be a great number. If it has enough action, I see 250-300+mil foreign grosses, maybe even more.

 

[Prime]

650mil worldwide. You heard it here first!

 

[Marvin]

You made a Poochie reference?! Love it.

If Man Of Steel made around 230 - 240 million, which is Returns numbers adjusted for inflation, that is a big win for the studio. Avengers is blinding people into thinking these movies are bigger than they are box office wise, that is an exception. Think more along the lines of Thor, Captain, Last Stand, Wolverine, Begins, Returns.

I disagree, those films performed at the remedial level. A good strong film with a big property ideally should aim for Spidey/TF numbers. A movie can be loved by fans as much as it wants to be but when it's not "hot" it's just not. Thor for example.

Avengers and TDK are a case of big storms yes, but 240 being SR adjusted is just a sign of an ok film that simply please many. The original IronMan is the exquisite example of what I'm talking about. No one can deny how solid that film was for the GA and it did it on it's quality alone. These other superhero films listed simply weren't that.

 

[Showtime]

I disagree, those films performed at the remedial level. A good strong film with a big property ideally should aim for Spidey/TF numbers. A movie can be loved by fans as much as it wants to be but when it's not "hot" it's just not. Thor for example.

Avengers and TDK are a case of big storms yes, but 240 being SR adjusted is just a sign of an ok film that simply please many. The original IronMan is the exquisite example of what I'm talking about. No one can deny how solid that film was for the GA and it did it on it's quality alone. These other superhero films listed simply weren't that.

I think Spidey(Raimi) and Iron Man numbers are very unrealistic for Superman, especially coming after Superman Returns and the aftermath of Avengers but I'm no box office guru. It's like gambling.

Only 40 films have made over 300 million domestic. That's select company. Only 83 films over 230 million.

I think if the studio makes around 240 domestic to restart a franchise, they will be very happy.