EXCLUSIVE EARLY FRIDAY & 3-DAY ESTIMATES: Weakest 'Ocean's' yet w/$12M Friday - $34.3M for the weekend; 'Surf's Up' soft w/$5M Friday - $15.2M OW; 'Hostel' tanks w/$3M Friday - $7.3M OW
by Steve Mason
The fourth three-quel of the summer is anything but a charm for Hollywood, as Oceans Thirteen (Warner Bros) has opened to an underwhelming $12M Friday, which should translate to a disappointing $34.3M. If the number holds, this will be the worst opening of the Oceans franchise, trailing Oceans Eleven ($38.1M) and Oceans Twelve ($39.1M).
Although not a disaster, this is well below industry expectations. My sources have been telling me that the picture scored solidly in industry tracking with Un-Aided Awareness of 11% and a Total Aware of 95%. Definite Interest is a very strong 50% (Males Under 25 at 53%, Males 25 Plus at 50%, Females Under 25 at 43% and Females 25 Plus at 52%) and 16% of moviegoers surveyed described Oceans as their First Choice this weekend (Males Under 25 at 17%, Males 25 Plus at 16%, Females Under 25 at 11% and Females 25 Plus at 19%). $40M has been a foregone conclusion, and more than a few industry types, including yours truly, were looking for a $50M opening.
Maybe moviegoers are already burned out on sequels. Or possibly, people have a bad taste in their mouth from the poorly received Oceans Twelve. Several of my sources has pointed out that the marketing campaign feels very been there, done that. Was there really much innovation in the posters, trailers, commercials, etc.? The campaign certainly didnt break any new ground. And, theres always the possibility that guys like George Clooney and Brad Pitt are cooler in LA and NY than they are in Red State America. Maybe their lavish lifestyles and liberal politics have alienated folks in the middle of the country. Guys like Bill OReilly have certainly done their best to demonize even a likable lib like Clooney.
Despite the weaker-than-expected opening, Oceans Thirteen is still the 3rd-best opening of director Steven Soderberghs career.
Unfortunately for the film industry, the other two new releases are also major disappointments. Sonys Surfs Up has managed only an estimated $5M to start the weekend, and the 3-day will likely be approximately $15.2M. Its no small feat to release a computer-animated talking animal movie in the heart of the summer season and deliver numbers this soft.
Surfs Up is Sonys third recent animated release, and the weakest of the trio.
Meanwhile, the once-highly-anticipated Eli Roth project Hostel II (Lionsgate) is a flat-out bomb. Originally set for release in January, Lionsgate now probably wishes that they had stuck with the original plan. This picture is getting slaughtered in the marketplace (which seems somehow fitting) with just $3M on Friday and a likely $7.3M for the weekend.
On the bright side, Pirates of the Caribbean 3: At Worlds End (Buena Vista) finished 2nd on Friday with an estimated $6.2M and, with an expected $21.4M for the weekend representing a decent 52% drop, itll surpass $250M by Monday morning. Knocked Up (Universal), fueled by strong word-of-mouth, added $6M Friday and that will likely translate to a very solid $19.4M for the weekend. Thats a great hold, down just 37%, and itll put the hilarious Judd Apatow comedy over the $50M mark. Finally, Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) grabbed $4.2M to start the weekend, and its probably headed for a 4th place finish with $15.6M down by just 44%.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. Oceans Thirteen (Warner Bros) - $12M [$12M cume]
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: At Worlds End (Buena Vista) - $6.2M [$238.5M cume]
3. Knocked Up (Universal) - $6M [$52.2M cume]
4. Surfs Up (Sony) - $5M [$5M cume]
5. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $4.2M [$270.3M cume]
6. Hostel II (Lionsgate) - $3M [$3M cume]
7. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $1.25M [$322.5M cume]
EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Oceans Thirteen (Warner Bros) - $34.3M [$34.3M cume]
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: At Worlds End (Buena Vista) - $21.4M [$253.7M cume]
3. Knocked Up (Universal) - $19.4M [$65.6M cume]
4. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $15.6M [$281.7M cume]
5. Surfs Up (Sony) - $15.2M [$15.2M cume]
6. Hostel II (Lionsgate) - $7.3M [$7.3M cume]
7. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $4.43M [$325.7M cume]