The Real Deal Oscar Predictions

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]344439[/split]

 

[lime]

I believe that now is the best time to start with the real and serious Oscar predictions. We are at the end of November, and most of the big contenders are either out, or reviewed.

I know there’s a thread for this somewhere, but I think it’s good to start clear and fresh.

 

[lime]

Is the Oscars thread from 2009 still alive? You know, the 'Slumdog' year?

 

[J'adore]

Why would it be?

 

[lime]

Why would it be?

Well I'm interested to browse in it a little. After all two of my all time favorite movies was at that Oscars.

 

[DACrowe]

I don't really think people talking about a film later necessarily makes it better. Way more people talk about Star Wars nowadays, but Annie Hall really was the better of the two of 1979. And Shakespeare in Love was a helluva lot better than Crash and Slumdog Millionaire, horrible categorizing. I'll never understand why that movie gets such a horrible rap. Well, I do kinda, but eh, still a great film that deserved everything it got.

Star Wars and Annie Hall were 1977.

That is a tough one because Annie Hall is Woody Allen's best movie and the only time he won Best Picture. However, Star Wars I think is the far more important film of the two. That one is difficult.

But others are not so ambiguous. Most are clear cut. Yeah Rocky has one of the most heartwarming endings ever. But it beat not just Taxi Driver, not just Network, but ALSO All the President's Men. Any of those three were far more important and better movies. But the Academy went with emotion.

I actually like Rocky though. But it beating Taxi Driver and Network is a joke. Same goes with Shakespeare in Love. I like that movie and it is a whole lot better than Crash or Slumdog Millionaire. However, it beat one of the best films of that decade, Saving Private Ryan. As charming as Shakespeare in Love was, SPR was a film that almost everyone remembers and still will watch and talk about every year. It is also a movie that recreated what the war film was and there is a very clear before and after effect that SPR had on cinema. SIL was a charming, period comedy.

It gets a bad reputation because most people sneer at it beating the obviously superior film that year. The same way Dances With Wolves gets a lot of criticism, not because of its quality (it's actually a very good movie), but because it beat such an iconic and game changing film like Goodfellas, people tend to kick at Costner's one good directorial contribution. A Beautiful Mind is an excellent movie, but it also came out the same year as Memento, Fellowship of the Ring and Moulin Rouge! So, a lot of people now groan about it winning Best Picture.

I do think historical importance is necessary. When people look back at the movies that won Best Picture throughout the years, they're likely to know that the movies that really stood the test of time (Citizen Kane) should have won compared to the movies that didn't (How Green is My Valley).

If The King's Speech beats The Social Network, Inception, and Black Swan, it too will be one of those choices that are derided for all the years to come.

 

[hugekent]

If The King's Speech beats The Social Network, Inception, and Black Swan, it too will be one of those choices that are derided for all the years to come.

I'd agree with that. I can't believe The King's Speech is even in the running. It's a solid if underwhelming film in a year filled with some of the most exciting films in years. Besides the three you mentioned it's also got a better chance than two excellent movies loved by the public (The Fighter, True Grit) and I have no idea why.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

But others are not so ambiguous. Most are clear cut. Yeah Rocky has one of the most heartwarming endings ever. But it beat not just Taxi Driver, not just Network, but ALSO All the President's Men. Any of those three were far more important and better movies. But the Academy went with emotion.

DA, you're breaking my heart.

Okay, I would put Taxi Driver above, and maybe Network, but I honestly would not put All the President's Men above Rocky but that's my opinion. I think you're undermining the importance of Rocky though. Rocky invented the modern era underdog film that's been used in many films (especially sports films) to this day. I'd find that pretty influenced.

But from a purely technical point of view, I understand where you're coming from.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

And if The King's Speech wins, it will be one of the most underwhelming wins in the history of the Oscars. The Social Network should win it. It's the better movie and the more different of the two films. If it wins, it furthers the Academy's fetish with biting to Oscar bait.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

And if The King's Speech wins, it will be one of the most underwhelming wins in the history of the Oscars. The Social Network should win it. It's the better movie and the more different of the two films. If it wins, it furthers the Academy's fetish with biting to Oscar bait.

Agreed.

My sis and I saw The King's Speech yesterday and we both agreed that Firth is very good but that the movie is just okay. There is nothing new or exciting about it what-so-ever. That PGA win gave it a huge shot in the arm though so I'm doubting The Social Network's ability to win best picture now. That Golden Globe win could just be pointing to The Social Network losing, like it did with Avatar last year. I didn't think so atfirst but now I'm having doubts.

I respect all of the people's opinions who love the film but if The King's Speech wins I'm going to gag because it will represent the Oscars obsession with costume dramas.

The Social Network is so young and fresh and cool and just a damn great film. It would be awesome to see a film like that win, if only to show us that the Oscars aren't only made up of a bunch of old fuddy-duddies voting in their best film that reminds them of the good old days.

I never really have any faith in the Oscars so I wouldn't be surprised if the brit costume drama won out.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

If The King's speech wins (and I can't believe I'm saying it because I was really disappointed at the Academy for it), I'd be more upset that this won than when Crash won.

 

[DACrowe]

DA, you're breaking my heart.

Okay, I would put Taxi Driver above, and maybe Network, but I honestly would not put All the President's Men above Rocky but that's my opinion. I think you're undermining the importance of Rocky though. Rocky invented the modern era underdog film that's been used in many films (especially sports films) to this day. I'd find that pretty influenced.

But from a purely technical point of view, I understand where you're coming from.

I suppose. And I do think Rocky has the most emotionally satisfying ending of one of those underdog movies ever. You can't watch it and not be moved in some way....but it really is hurt by having literally five sequels. Many of which were pretty laughable (Rocky wins the Cold War in one, gets a pet robot and then loses all his money before punching a Don King-type out in the street in the next movie).

I would definitely put Network and Taxi Driver far ahead of it. ATPM was an important political film that defined how people saw journalists for a generation (until around the time of the Monica Lewenski thing and the rise of cable news BS) and kind of articulated the climax of the tumultuous period that was the 1960s and early 1970s. But fair enough.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

If The King's speech wins (and I can't believe I'm saying it because I was really disappointed at the Academy for it), I'd be more upset that this won than when Crash won.

I have to think about that for a minute because Crash was a really, really vapid, pathetic excuse for a pandering movie. One of the dumbest films of 2005. Although I think that The King's Speech is a pretty hollow, kinda boring movie (I thought about leaving 10 to 15 minutes in and going to see Green Hornet with my neices and nephews and I have no interest in seeing it at all) it did get better as it went along and had it's charms. I've seen better flicks on the Masterpeice theater though.

Eh, I guess at the end of the day I would be more pissed off if The Kings Speech wins but thats only because I dug The Social Network so much. I just loved how young, fresh, hip and smart it is. The acting is fantastic too. It's a nearly perfect film to me. The King's Speech is like a 7 out of 10 movie to me. It's not anything special.

 

[jmc]

TKS speech my be bait, but I do believe it's a worthy bait as opposed to some other films over the years. You can't argue that it doesn't tick off all the boxes, directing, story, acting, cinematography, art direction, etc, it's a solid film and to be honest a worthy film. Comparing it to Crash winning I believe is completely disrespectful to the film and the makers, and to be honest sounds like nothing more than TSN fanboy whining, and I say that as someone who loves TSN.

 

[lime]

Hey, the nominations are due in about 4 hours, right?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

TKS speech my be bait, but I do believe it's a worthy bait as opposed to some other films over the years. You can't argue that it doesn't tick off all the boxes, directing, story, acting, cinematography, art direction, etc, it's a solid film and to be honest a worthy film. Comparing it to Crash winning I believe is completely disrespectful to the film and the makers, and to be honest sounds like nothing more than TSN fanboy whining, and I say that as someone who loves TSN.

I knew you were going to say something to that effect because you said you loved the movie but it's not fanboy whinning coming from my end. I quite honestly just found The King's Speech to only be an okay costume drama. After all that hype about the film, the only thing that was worth while to me was Firth's performance. Sure the movie looked nice and was slickly produced but alot of movies look nice and are slickly produced, that doesn't mean that they deserve the industries highest honor. I'm not trying to change your opinion of Speech, I was just saying that I don't think that it deserves to win best picture.


It would be fanboy whinning if we were talking about Inception. I'm talking about a 40 to 50 million dollar film that isn't supernatural in any way shape or form.

Hey, the nominations are due in about 4 hours, right?

Yep. 8am my time I believe. There are always some noms that annoy me so I'm expecting...interesting things.

 

[jmc]

I was responding more to Parker than you, the notion that TKS speech winning is comparable to Crash winning is absolutely absurd, Crash was a deplorable decision and a film that had no right being nominated in the first place . I got no problem if people think TSN should win, one of my top films of the year so I don't have an issue if it were to take home the gold, my issue is comparing it to a politically motivated Best Picture win.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I understand and respect that you have a problem with my assessment that it would be a politically motivated win if Speech came away with the best pic Oscar but thats what I honestly believe and I'm just not going to back away from that opinion.

The Academy Awards have a right to choose whichever film they want to win that award but I for one am tired of the usual suspects winning 80% of the time. Especially when better movies lose out to those maybe oscar-baity films. It's just old hat at this point.

 

[lime]

Any live streams to the nominations other than the official site?

I'm asking because the official site will be no doubt overloaded.

 

[lime]

Any live streams to the nominations other than the official site?

I'm asking because the official site will be no doubt overloaded.

???

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

If you are in America you can just watch it on one of the morning shows or E! at around am I don't really know anything about the streaming thing.

I bet either Inception or The King's Speech get the most noms.

 

[lime]

I'm in Bulgaria so the TV is not an option for me.

And yeah, Inception and TKS probably will be the nominations leaders

 

[lime]

Aaaaah the tension is killin me!!!

I hope the academy don't screw 127 Hours. For me the movie was times better than True Grit, The Town and even The Fighter.

 

[kvz5]

About to start...

 

[redfirebird2008]

Nolan just got screwed in the Best Director nominations.