The TDKR Box Office Thread IV

Wednesday will be a big day for the film over here in the UK. Wonder what the numbers will be then.

 

How in the world you just joined the Hype and got the name 007, is just jaw dropping.

 

the reviews & positive word of mouth will give the film strong legs for the next few weeks

 

Seconded.

 

and its exclusive IMAX for 2 months wont hurt either...

 

You're alive?!?! I thought the fan boys sent you to that underground prison!

 

So no new record on the opening weeked. More of that, the difference is kinda striking. Almost 50 millions.

I think, people are stuffed with super-hero movies. Avengers, then Spidey, now TDKR. +Avengers were in 3D.

 

Those fan boys can kiss my arse.

 

Thats the spirit.

 

People also stayed away from the theatres this weekend in case you forgot.

 

The things that gets me is that word of mouth reaction i'm getting from everyone seems to be amazing. That should bode well for legs.

I actually do predict strong weekday numbers.

 

I think its going to be like Avatar now... not make as much obviously, but it will make a ton gradually.

And yea, 'Hype' wise, the reactions are good to great, with some just meh... while the general audience, from what I have seen, think it is one of the best movies in a long long time.

 

Yeah I'm hoping it does well with that exclusive window.

 

Man...

 

I can confirm that in Mexico at least it goes out until this Friday. That's a great thing since I get to go to a second premiere!

 

We don't know what the legs will be. Will it have the legs Avatar had? I doubt it, and probably has less than TDK. I think 500M domestic is in serious jeopardy right now, unless it has 40% ish week 2 drop.

 

The Hollywood Reporter states that "'The Dark Knight Rises' earned a glowing 'A' CinemaScore"- and that is usually a good predictor for legs.
However, here are some excerpts from an article in my hometown paper (The Pittsburgh Post Gazette) today:

"Audience anxiety in the wake of the recent shootings in Aurora, Colo., came to a head on Sunday in West Homestead, where a crowd watching 'The Dark Knight Rises' made a panicked dash for the emergency exits when a fight broke out in the theater."

"Homestead police Chief Jeffrey DeSimone, whose officers were called in to provide crowd control, said it's possible that moviegoers were extra jumpy because of the Colorado attack"

"Dionne Okafor, 26, of Highland Park, said she was hesitant to go see the Batman movie at all and chose an afternoon showing on Sunday that gave her a sense of safety."
"'After what happened, it makes it a little more frightening,' she said. 'It's always in the back of your mind.'"

And these were people who went to the movie, for goodness sake. If audiences are this jittery, and theater attendance- particularly for this film- is depressed for some time, we may not be seeing a 15 percent or-so drop in only the opening weekend box office, but for the entire run.

 

Saw it second time today in IMAX.

All Monday afternoon and evening showings were sold out, if that means anything.

 

If they were only IMAX showings its not that big of a deal.

 

The problem is there's alot of new movies coming out in the next few weeks, and even TDK had a 52% drop, which is about standard for Superhero flicks. I think the original audience estimates were way off the charts and probably drastically overestimated. However if you immagine that the same audience from TDK goes to see this film, I could potentially see and under 50% drop.

But I think next week you start at 78M and possibly as high as 85M. Monday will be the big indicator, if there's any kind of recovery. TDK had a -44% drop from Sunday. Of course TDK had a bigger Sunday than DKR. I think if there's any kind of recover, the Monday number needs to be closer to -40%.

 

It didn't make it's predictions for the weekend. However, TDKR seems like a more consistent movie in the BO than any other flick (besides obviously Avengers) that we've had this year. Many people will still see this movie, multiple times.

 

I think this movie will be more of a weekend flick like TASM than TDK. The long runtime will hurt it with working adults. Teenagers on Twitter are reporting that their parents won't let them watch it, either because of paranoia or boycotting the film (blaming it for the tragedy). Families with small kids certainly aren't showing up after the tragedy. Basically that means the only audience it has during the day and late at night is college kids who are off from school. Working people won't be going to any weekday shows later than 7 PM or so.

TASM was pretty weak during the weekdays, but had nice increases on the weekends. It performed quite a bit different from what we saw with TDK, which had massive weekdays ($80m on its first Monday-Thursday). That kind of cash made the second weekend drop a bit bigger than it would have been otherwise.

Another thing to keep in mind about weekdays compared to TDK is that "Discount Tuesday" was nowhere near as big of a deal in 2008 as it is now. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if this has a really big drop on Monday and then increases on Tuesday a bit. TDK had spillover on Monday from all the Sunday sellouts and it didn't have Tuesday ticket prices that were significantly discounted compared to Monday.

 

Not bad at all. No one should be disappointed. It made 13m less than Harry Potter on Thurs midnight yet only made 8m less for the weekend. That midnight number could have meant a worse number since the two movie share the "last of the series" fanboy frontloading.