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Discussion in 'The Dark Knight Rises' started by Thread Manager, Aug 8, 2012.
This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]389753[/split]
This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]388807[/split]
The gross will be somewhere in the 380-390m range after the weekend and will cross 400m next week.
Cool to hear. Very proud of how well the film is doing.
Bourne Legacy is at 50 % on RT right now with total 16 reviews (8 fresh, 8 rotten) so far.
The RT score can go up (or down) but it is not a good start for this movie and with Total Rekall at RT rating of 30 %, can TDKR stay at No. 1 position for the fourth week ? If it does it would be quite an achievement.
Still don't think it will beat Bourne Legacy, but should have a $20 million weekend....
No chance of it beating Bourne. TDKR is headed for a $17-20m weekend, while Bourne is headed for a $35-45m weekend.
The Campaign is a comedy movie, I hope that it does not take second position from TDKR.
Yeah $430m is about a lock but I can't see it going any higher than that unfortunately.
It'll go higher than that.
1. Bourne Legacy (36-40 million weekend)
2. The Campaign (23-27 million weekend)
3. TDKR (18-22 million weekend)
4. Total Recall (12 million weekend)
This is how it should go down this upcoming weekend.
Is the campaign tracking that high?
It will be about 20 or so million higher. its at 363 right now and with a potential of 20 million this weekend. after 24 days it will be around 390-394 million.
if i had to put a number on it right now 475 is the max it will get to with 450-455 (domestic)million being the number I think it will get to and the number WB is shooting for right now.
right around those numbers. should edge out TDKR for second.
I'm imagining around 18-20m tops for the whole of next week (about 2m per day Mon-Thurs and around 10-12m for the weekend) which would put it at 410m after next week. From there I can see it hitting 430m with a week and two days time but after that it'll be crawling and I can't see it getting all the way to 450m by the time it completely closes in theaters. I'd put the high at 445m. I could be underestimating its legs but I don't think I am given how its performed thus far.
The pace right now...
By this 4th weekend it will take in another $36.3 million for the whole week.
5th weekend about another $19.7 million.
6th weekend another $11 million.
7th weekend Labor Day $7.5 million.
8th weekend about $3.5 million.
9th weekend about $2 million.
10th weekend about $1.2 million.
So after it's 10th weekend, TDKR would make about another ~ $80.1 million.
Based on estimates, the total should be up at about ~ $435 million after September 23.
I've been basing my projections on how it stacks up next to pirates 2 as their dailies have been extremely similar. As of now it's been consistently $30m ahead of where pirates 2 is at mainly due to its larger opening weekend.
If things hold it should finish around the 450m mark as pirates 2 finished with $423m.
^ The dailies have been very close the TDKR ahead of it ever day actually, but Pirates 2 had really good weekends in it's 7-10th weeks and I'm not sure if TDKR will age as gracefully.
As of now TDKR has actually held better from the 2nd to 3rd wknd drop than TDK did so i think its legs are pretty decent.
I predict bourne opening this weekend will be another total recall and see a lot of ppl sticking to TDKR although i don't think it will win the weekend. I and most experts at the moment are predicting 450m so unless there are some trand changes it seems most likely.
To me, the Bourneless Bourne smacks of mediocrity even more so than Total Remake.
So when's TDKR gonna hit $1b?
I'd say in another 3-4 weeks.
Hey bird, did you know why the forums were taken out at BO?
They're just undergoing maintenance. Shouldn't be too long before they're back up.
The analysis I wrote in a different forum: