Thor: Box Office and Predictions

[BigThor]

Its still a clear disappointment and underperformance.

Thor Dark World was a bigger one and you see that didn't stop anything.

 

[Fosterson]

Thor Dark World was a bigger one and you see that didn't stop anything.

TDW improved on Thor 1's performance financially by more than $200mn. This will make less than Ragnarok.

 

[InCali]

A worse second weekend than Ragnarok is embarrassing. Regardless of my own feelings, this movie simply isn't resonating with most people, and I worry that this poor performance may make Marvel more reluctant to greenlight a fifth movie.

They’ll make a fifth movie. I’m 99% sure of that. It looks like it’s certainly going to underperform my expectations, but it’ll make money. After seeing it I said I thought it was kind of uneven and I really lay that at the feet of the Director. I really think that he’s kind of unidimensional. Not to say that everything he makes is the same but there’s sure a map that he doesn’t seem to deviate from. Other directors seem to be able to step out of that box and be comfortable making movies that are a little different. Overall, I like the movie but like I said, it was really uneven in spots and I can see why it got the mixed reception it did

 

[Comicbookguy339]

TDW improved on Thor 1's performance financially by more than $200mn. This will make less than Ragnarok.

Yup, even if we don't count the money Ragnarok made in Russia and China (714.8M without those two markets), Love and Thunder might still make less than that.

 

[HammerDown]

Yeah, good holds or not, no way this reaches a billion. Especially considering Multiverse of Madness, with its cameos and name recognition of Sam Raimi, didn't. Maverick was a breath of fresh air amidst all the comic book movies we've been getting, whereas Thor is another Marvel movie, and there's been no shortage of those. Not to mention the very mixed reception Love and Thunder has received.

If TLT had a good reception then it would more than likely cross 1B.

DS:MOM had a lukewarm reception as well and it’s already up to 955M. That also did so well because off all the multiversal cameo bait, that was there to get people in theaters basically, otherwise it wouldn’t have performed nowhere near as good as it has.

 

[HammerDown]

People here almost trying to make it sound like, If it doesn’t make Ragnarok money, it won’t be successful… Ragnarok made over 4 times it’s budget at the BO and they profited a lot with it.

TLT is on track to do over 3 times it’s budget and that’s plenty profitable. Sure TLT won’t make what it could have made but that’s a lot on how it was executed and received of course. It’s a question of not making the same mistakes again that are also different than the ones done with TDW.

Thor is still one of the MCU fan favorites and one of the very few remaining corner stones of the MCU, he’s here to stay and I can easily see more films being made with the character in it, both avengers and solo movies. Also there’s a lot of stuff set in the MCU and the Thor franchise that point to a continuation of the character’s story. Not to mention that Feige and CH have said as much.

 

[Iceman]

Box Office: ‘Where the Crawdads Sing’ Hits $2.3M Note, ‘Paws Of Fury’ Sees $505K – Deadline

Hmm, not too great.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

People here almost trying to make it sound like, If it doesn’t make Ragnarok money, it won’t be successful… Ragnarok made over 4 times it’s budget at the BO and they profited a lot with it.

TLT is on track to do over 3 times it’s budget and that’s plenty profitable. Sure TLT won’t make what it could have made but that’s a lot on how it was executed and received of course. It’s a question of not making the same mistakes again that are also different than the ones done with TDW.

Thor is still one of the MCU fan favorites and one of the very few remaining corner stones of the MCU, he’s here to stay and I can easily see more films being made with the character in it, both avengers and solo movies. Also there’s a lot of stuff set in the MCU and the Thor franchise that point to a continuation of the character’s story. Not to mention that Feige and CH have said as much.

Love and Thunder has a budget of 250M. I don't know how much they spend on marketing nowadays (as a general rule, marketing used to double the budget but I don't think they managed to spend 250M on marketing in just 3 months) but you can easily add another 100M on top of the production budget. Best case scenario, the break-even point is 700M.

 

[HammerDown]

Love and Thunder has a budget of 250M. I don't know how much they spend on marketing nowadays (as a general rule, marketing used to double the budget but I don't think they managed to spend 250M on marketing in just 3 months) but you can easily add another 100M on top of the production budget. Best case scenario, the break-even point is 700M.

Where did you see that the budget was 250M?

Edit: Nevermind I found it myself. I thought it was a bit lower, regardless it will at the very least break even and Marvel/Disney makes a ton of money with movie related merchandise, not to mention that I will add to their D+ library which is of course subscription based… they’ll be just fine.

 

[-Arya-]

Thor 5 will happen. MCU movies will continue to make money despite low or mid tier quality in the short term. Transformers has proved general audiences don’t particularly care one way or another, up to a point. If the quality continues to be consistently mediocre, I could a see Transformers 5 situation happening with the MCU where they will make half the money they used to.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

Where did you see that the budget was 250M?

Box Office: 'Thor: Love and Thunder' Scores $69.5 Million Opening Day - Variety

As is the case with any Marvel Studios film, “Love and Thunder” cost a pretty penny, carrying a $250 million production price tag.

As far as I know, this is the latest information concerning the budget.

 

[HammerDown]

Box Office: 'Thor: Love and Thunder' Scores $69.5 Million Opening Day - Variety

As far as I know, this is the latest information concerning the budget.

Where did you see that the budget was 250M?

Edit: Nevermind I found it myself. I thought it was a bit lower, regardless it will at the very least break even and Marvel/Disney makes a ton of money with movie related merchandise, not to mention that I will add to their D+ library which is of course subscription based… they’ll be just fine.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Have to wonder if L&T's reception and box office performance will make Feige (and Chapek) reconsider their strategy with the MCU going forward. Obviously something isn't resonating as strongly with this year's crop of MCU films with both fans and critics.

 

[HammerDown]

Marvel is stretching themselves too thin with the D+ content/series and theatrical releases. I’ve stopped following the MCU so closely as i once did, it’s all a bit too much at this point and post AEG it’s all too scattered to make much sense and attempt to have a common thread.

I’m sure some of what is being set up is going to play a part later on, but for now it’s all a bit random and disconnected. Some stuff that has been set up in the series isn’t even connected properly with the films and it’s basically sort of a waste. Nowadays I’ll gladly pick and choose what deserves my attention.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

Very curious to see how Wakanda Forever will do at the box office. If Chadwick was still alive then even a mediocre sequel would clear a billion but as things stand now, I think it might end up making the same as MoM or even less.

 

[HammerDown]

Also worth mentioning that a significant drop on the second weekend is not unheard of and that some MCU films eventually bounce back with good latter legs. I think that DS:MOM was a prime example of just that. Not to mention that the summer is barren with significant theatrical releases and TLT should capitalize on that.

 

[samsnee]

Very curious to see how Wakanda Forever will do at the box office. If Chadwick was still alive then even a mediocre sequel would clear a billion but as things stand now, I think it might end up making the same as MoM or even less.

I think it will be less of a cultural event like the first one as the plot involves Namor and isn’t just a primarily black cast.

 

[BigThor]

TDW improved on Thor 1's performance financially by more than $200mn. This will make less than Ragnarok.

ok.

 

[Mr. Peanut]

Have to wonder if L&T's reception and box office performance will make Feige (and Chapek) reconsider their strategy with the MCU going forward. Obviously something isn't resonating as strongly with this year's crop of MCU films with both fans and critics.

In general I feel there's just a much smaller sense of hype in this phase. No Way Home was a big exception since it was a culmination of every past Spider-man movie in an epic crossover event.

Right now the biggest feeling of hype for me comes from the idea of what'll happen with the X-men, which is a long way off. The stuff we're getting right now is good and I've enjoyed all of it, but it doesn't fill me with that same sense of rabid anticipation the way I felt when waiting to see how each movie in the first three phases would further develop the infinity stone saga. Like everything from Iron Man to Endgame is just a really fun build up and payoff, and there isn't that same sense anymore.

 

[writer0327]

Have to wonder if L&T's reception and box office performance will make Feige (and Chapek) reconsider their strategy with the MCU going forward. Obviously something isn't resonating as strongly with this year's crop of MCU films with both fans and critics.

This feels like the experimental phase of the MCU. Feige has already admitted they don't have a firmly set gameplan so I think they are seeing what works and what doesn't. Clearly about 75% of Phase 4 has been average at best, so I expect Feige to take whatever is working and fold that into X-Men, F4 and build up towards Secret Wars.

 

[writer0327]

Marvel is stretching themselves too thin with the D+ content/series and theatrical releases. I’ve stopped following the MCU so closely as i once did, it’s all a bit too much at this point and post AEG it’s all too scattered to make much sense and attempt to have a common thread.

I’m sure some of what is being set up is going to play a part later on, but for now it’s all a bit random and disconnected. Some stuff that has been set up in the series isn’t even connected properly with the films and it’s basically sort of a waste. Nowadays I’ll gladly pick and choose what deserves my attention.

Agreed. Didn't finish watching Ms. Marvel and feeling iffy on She Hulk. By cramming 13 shows/movies in an 18 month period, the MCU has lost its specialness.

 

[InCali]

Where did you see that the budget was 250M?

Edit: Nevermind I found it myself. I thought it was a bit lower, regardless it will at the very least break even and Marvel/Disney makes a ton of money with movie related merchandise, not to mention that I will add to their D+ library which is of course subscription based… they’ll be just fine.

It will definitely make money. There are other revenue streams than theater box office.

 

[psylockolussus]

The Friday numbers don't look great Xpecially compare to Minions.

But I always see Thor 4, as a bonus Thor movie. I just hope Marvel Studios doesn't greenlit a Thor 5 (regardless of its boX office numbers) - to make room for others.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

It will definitely make money. There are other revenue streams than theater box office.

Sure but I don't think Disney execs will be happy with an MCU movie barely breaking even theatrically.

 

[Prison Mike]

I think the current execs operate more on a wholistic basis, they see what kind of value the franchise brings to all revenue streams, not just theatrical. If this movie keeps or adds more Disney+ subscribers, then they would probably be okay with muted theatrical performance.