Thor: Box Office and Predictions

[TheVileOne]

You think it’s got another $300 million in it at the box office?

Yes.

 

[Superhero 101]

I can see Another 150 million ish domestically and maybe another 150 million more internationally

 

[InCali]

You think it’s got another $300 million in it at the box office?

Time will tell. It’s really going to depend on whether it can hold up like Doctor Strange did. I suspect it will not. The bottom line is that nobody knows yet. 68% drop isn’t completely out of the ordinary though

 

[HammerDown]

This weekend saw Thor: Love & Thunder in the top spot with $7.16M, bringing the cume to $31.88M.

Thor: Love & Thunder is still at the top spot with $1.46M, bringing the cume to $5.39M.

 

[Iceman]

Doing really well in Australia.

 

[HammerDown]

BO……… TLT 2wkn — Rag 2wkn — Rag Total

U.K……….. 24.9M —— (27.3M) —— (40.9M)
Australia…. 21.8M —— (15.4M) —— (26.9M)
S. Korea…. 21.0M —— (25.7M) —— (35.1M)
Mexico…… 19.0M —— (16.8M) —— (21.2M)
India……… 14.5M —— (9.9M) —— (11.8M)
Brazil…….. 13.2M —— (18.9M) —— (30.4M)
Indonesia.. 10.6M —— (9.8M) —— (11.7M)
Germany… 10.3M —— (13.2M) —— (19.0M)
France…… 8.1M —— (7.7M) —— (21.2M) *
Italy………. 7.7M —— (8.0M) —— (9.8M)
Japan……. 7.3M ——(6.9M) —— (10.1M)
Spain……. 6.6M —— (7.2M) —— (10.6M)

* 1st weekend comparison.

In green the countries where TLT is so far outperforming Ragnarok.

 

[Legendver2]

There's always the competition of just not going to the theater. Or watching something on streaming. I'm not sure that competition in theaters means all that much these days besides how many screens are occupied.

FWIW, I think TLT is doing fine. It's still likely the summer weekday choice for kids for most of the rest of the summer. Unless, Super-Pets is a lot more charming than anyone thinks. Yes, it's not going to challenge Top Gun: Maverick, Doctor Strange 2, or Jurassic World: Dominion at the worldwide box office. It's probably going to finish somewhere on par with The Batman. It's probably going to have to "settle" for being the most successful Thor movie at the box office.

How is it the most successful Thor movie when it settles for The Batman's 770m while Ragnarok make 854m?

 

[Filmfreak]

How is it the most successful Thor movie when it settles for The Batman's 770m while Ragnarok make 854m?

Probably because it technically doesn't have China and Russia to add to the box office this time around. I still think that a sequel coming out after Ragnarok, also featuring Guardians of the Galaxy, should be much more successful than one that came out after The Dark World. But again, it's all a matter of perspective, I guess.

 

[Shuri]

L&T box office run is a bit disappointing. I haven't seen the movie yet, but most people on social media are not that enthusiastic about it. I hope Wakanda forever will be well received or marvel might start losing some of the goodwill they worked so hard to get.

 

[HammerDown]

Thor Ragnarok

Worldwide = 853M (718M - China & Russia)
Domestic = 315M
International = 538M (403M - China & Russia)
(China = 112M + Russia = 23M)
—— // ——

Thor: Love and Thunder (10 days)

Worldwide = 497M
Domestic = 233M
International = 264M

 

[writer0327]

L&T box office run is a bit disappointing. I haven't seen the movie yet, but most people on social media are not that enthusiastic about it. I hope Wakanda forever will be well received or marvel might start losing some of the goodwill they worked so hard to get.

To many, they already have. Phase 4 has been a slog and a mess.

 

[Filmfreak]

Honestly I don't have a good feeling about Panther 2. Between losing the main star, the constant rewrites and the troubled production, I'll be shocked if it's a legit acclaimed movie. Then again I don't think that any of their films coming next year is a safe bet either at the moment.

 

[TheVileOne]

Honestly I don't have a good feeling about Panther 2. Between losing the main star, the constant rewrites and the troubled production, I'll be shocked if it's a legit acclaimed movie. Then again I don't think that any of their films coming next year is a safe bet either at the moment.

At least they aren't making Morbius, Kraven, and Madame Web. And El Muerto.

 

[Shuri]

Honestly I don't have a good feeling about Panther 2. Between losing the main star, the constant rewrites and the troubled production, I'll be shocked if it's a legit acclaimed movie. Then again I don't think that any of their films coming next year is a safe bet either at the moment.

Black panther might surprise us, I trust Coogler.

 

[HammerDown]

Should be really interesting to see the BO results for yesterday so we have a better idea of how it will perform post 2nd weekend and moving forward.

 

[Prison Mike]

I was thinking when this movie will hit Disney+. They just announced that Lightyear will come out on August 3rd on the service which is 47 days after it was released in theaters. DS2 also came out on D+ after 47 days. If they do the same with Thor then it will be on August 24th or they could wait another 2 weeks and release on Disney+ Day, which they did for Shang-Chi last year. Could go either way IMO.

 

[BigThor]

Some people are having a field day with these "disappointing results".

 

[HammerDown]

11th day

SM: H - 5.4M
Thor: L&T - 5.3M
DS: MOM - 4.8M
GOTG - 4.7M
Ragnarok - 3.6M

Seems to me that it could be stabilizing, it’s once again doing better than DS:MOM on dailies which is good, since that stabilized too and ended up gathering a hefty sum domestic.

So yeh right now TLT is playing very much in line with Spider-Man: Homecoming. At the same time in each box office run, TLT is at 239M while SM: H was at 212M.

SM: H scored 22M on its 3rd weekend and finished with a 334M domestic total.

 

[Prison Mike]

How is it doing internationally? Are the international results similar to SM: H too?

 

[HammerDown]

How is it doing internationally? Are the international results similar to SM: H too?

I don’t know if I can find direct daily or weekly comparisons but I think overall SM:H and Ragnarok for example had similar results.

 

[HammerDown]

11th day

SM: H - 5.4M
Thor: L&T - 5.3M
DS: MOM - 4.8M
GOTG - 4.7M
Ragnarok - 3.6M

12th day

SM: H - 7.5M
GOTG - 6.6M
Thor: L&T - 6.4M
DS: MOM - 5.2M
Ragnarok - 4.4M

 

[Evil Twin]

How is it the most successful Thor movie when it settles for The Batman's 770m while Ragnarok make 854m?

Because as others have pointed out, it's likely to make more at the domestic box office and maybe more overseas sans China and Russia. And who knows how much they really got back from China.

Regardless, if Ragnarok was a success, this should be considered a success too. Although it also shows that unlimited growth isn't in the cards for Thor or the MCU.

I would agree that TLT and Ragnarok do seem to represent the peak. At least without some MCU event tie in to boost the gross. And, the standard caveats apply that we're extrapolating based on solid weekdays and a decent final multiplier.

 

[HammerDown]

Because as others have pointed out, it's likely to make more at the domestic box office and maybe more overseas sans China and Russia. And who knows how much they really got back from China.

Regardless, if Ragnarok was a success, this should be considered a success too. Although it also shows that unlimited growth isn't in the cards for Thor or the MCU.

I would agree that TLT and Ragnarok do seem to represent the peak. At least without some MCU event tie in to boost the gross. And, the standard caveats apply that we're extrapolating based on solid weekdays and a decent final multiplier.

I don’t think that they are the peak at all. TLT could and would‘ve made 1B had things played out better.

 

[Sithborg]

I understand why you are comparing the dailies to those other Marvel movies, but comparing the weekday totals to movies released outside of the summer is a bad idea.

And while the second weeks numbers aren't bad, I would be concerned that Thor is pulling in less numbers than Jurassic World and Minions in their second week. Still not a failure, but I think we are seeing some weakness in its audience.

 

[Evil Twin]

I understand why you are comparing the dailies to those other Marvel movies, but comparing the weekday totals to movies released outside of the summer is a bad idea.

And while the second weeks numbers aren't bad, I would be concerned that Thor is pulling in less numbers than Jurassic World and Minions in their second week. Still not a failure, but I think we are seeing some weakness in its audience.

Not being as successful as Jurassic World and Minions isn't really much of a criticism.

I don't know if we're seeing weakness, as much as the fact that Thor isn't Spider-Man or Iron Man as portrayed by RDJ. Hemsworth isn't Tom Cruise as a box office draw. And Thor isn't suddenly going to become more popular on his 4th sequel. Especially on a film that's gotten more criticism than the normal Marvel film. It may be that the range of the MCU these days is between $600 million and $1 billion.

Unless Black Adam and Shazam 2 outperform Thor, I wouldn't be particularly concerned about the MCU at the box office. The MCU is still likely to have 3 of the top 8 from Hollywood at the box office this year. The failure of Lightyear should be much more concerning to Disney.