TMNT Box Office Predictions and Discussion

[TheVileOne]

Well the movie does come out in less than two months. The filmmakers have stated that in order for the franchise to start anew and to get a sequel that WB is looking for $100 million domestic.

Now just to let you know, the last time a Ninja Turtles movie made that kind of money was when the original live action movie came out in 1990. Though I suppose Secret of the Ooze making around $80 million in the early '90's is like $100 million today.

I'm hoping this will make a good chunk because I'd like the more comic/movie oriented version of the turtles we are getting here and would like to see more turtles movies like this one.

These days just about any CG animated movie is instant money at the box office, even the ones that are garbage and terribly mediocre end up making $120-150 million or more at the US BO. Turtles? I dunno, I hope it will, but I'm going with a prediction of $50-100 million. It's kind of smack dab in a crowded pre-summer release schedule.

 

[Dread]

There also is the fact that TMNT is one of several franchises to return to the big screen after over 10 years (the abysmal turd TMNT III was in theatres in 1993, approx. 13-14 years ago) and some audiences have had mixed responses (BATMAN BEGINS did well domestically, but not the overly budgetted SUPERMAN RETURNS; ROCKY BALBOA made a profit although had the benefit of not being terribly expensive to begin with). I mean there are plenty of "mainstream" old school fans who felt the 2003 cartoon was "redundant" and refuse to accept it over the original that ran for 10 seasons from 1987-1996. But many moviegoers groan at the concept of a franchise returning to the screen after more than 10 years so there is that stigma of "not again!" from some.

HOWEVER, amung the target group, kids, they've had 5 seasons of TMNT on the small screen between TMNT and FAST FORWARD, and the merchandise as of 2005 grossed a billion worldwide. While not as big as they were in 1990, The Turtles have bounced back better than some faded kiddie franchises, like RUGRATS or MASTERS OF THE UNIVERSE.

I think it could make that $100 million domestic gross easily. But, I wouldn't be surprised if it shattered it due to some of our cynicam expectations. Kids should like it and many old school fans will at least be curious.

 

[Catman]

If the movie is good and gets good buzz I think it'll do well. However, don't expect a HUGE hit or anything. Maybe a modest hit.

 

[TheVileOne]

Excellent commentary and points as always Dread.

Thing is as popular as the new turtles is, I wonder as abundant as this new wave of CG animated films will people still feel that this one is worth seeing? Watching a series and buying the toys is one thing. Going out to see the movie a lot of times is another.

 

[Dread]

Excellent commentary and points as always Dread.

Thing is as popular as the new turtles is, I wonder as abundant as this new wave of CG animated films will people still feel that this one is worth seeing? Watching a series and buying the toys is one thing. Going out to see the movie a lot of times is another.

That is true. However, unlike a TV show in which someone has to get up before 11 a.m., a movie could attract not only those kids who watch the new show (and their parents), but some curious older fans. I mean, TRANSFORMERS also will have that crossover appeal.

There is a bit of a general maliase with CGI films, at least if you read critics, because they're hardly a novelty anymore and many have fallen prey to the same problems that dogged, surprise, 2D animated films. Shoddy, shallow writing and miscast actors. The Turtles themselves here aren't big names so that could be a sign they went for the best actors; since they have some minor "star power" with Patrick Stewart, Sarah Michelle Geller and Chris Evans (and Stewart should put in a good performance as a lock). Hopefully they buck this trend.

It's possible that TMNT could see $100 million domestic, only I wouldn't expect it to make it there in under a month. I could see it banging out maybe $15-$20 million to debut and then would need some staying power like, say, NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM (still earning within the Top 5 Box after 6 weeks).

I could be wrong. Frankly I just want it to be good and enjoyable. I mean it would have to be pretty horrid to not be better than TMNT III but I still would like it to rock as a film.

Cons: Stigma of "Not another 10+ year old franchise dusted off/Not another CGI kid flick/Omigod weren't the TMNT SO 1991"

Pros: Kids, merchandise, curious older fans, non-Disney so the expectations are lower, and the aforementioned "any CGI kiddie flick makes something" logic.

 

[TheVileOne]

More specifically for a PRO, TMNT still has a significantly large new and younger fanbase as well as a tie-in animated series that's been on for several years.

Very few action/adventure cartoon shows last beyond 2-3 seasons if even that much. So obviously it does get some strong viewership.

The CON to that is that TV audiences don't always translate to movie audiences. But, it worked in 1990.

 

[Dread]

More specifically for a PRO, TMNT still has a significantly large new and younger fanbase as well as a tie-in animated series that's been on for several years.

Very few action/adventure cartoon shows last beyond 2-3 seasons if even that much. So obviously it does get some strong viewership.

The CON to that is that TV audiences don't always translate to movie audiences. But, it worked in 1990.

Exactly. Unless one was there like many of us were, you can't imagine how big TMNT was in the late 80's and in 1990-1991. They were like the Pokemon of the generation. The movie theatres were jam packed and they would EXPLODE in kid cheers every time the Turtles made their first appearence in the movie. I remember how jarred everyone in the theatre was with me as an 8 year old when Shredder was MUCH harder and scarier there than he was in the cartoon. It was great. Hell, I still have a bazillion toys in boxes somewhere. The Technodrome still sits atop some milk crates and I still have TMNT MAGAZINE posters of Casey Jones and The Shredder on my wall (along with Silver Surfer, two Wolverine's, one Spider-Man, and one I drew of The Tick).

I think a lot of us are being conservative in estimates to be realistic, but it is possible for TMNT here to shatter expectations. They have a healthy fresh fanbase, an older fanbase, and a new medium (CGI movie vs. Live Action that officially ran it's course with drival like NEXT MUTATION and TMNT 3).

 

[Cinemaman]

My guess is $115m.

 

[TheVileOne]

I'd say my estimates are pretty conservative, since there are so many pros and cons you can debate for this flick, there's really no telling exactly how well it will do until it happens.

I mean it's not like Spider-man or Pirates 2 which you knew with very little doubt would be huge. Or basically any Star Wars or Pixar animated film.

 

[Darthkush]

I'm gonna say it makes about 60 million but ihope it it makes far more. I too was around during the initial turtle mania(i saw all 3 flicks in theatres and i was in elementary school at the time) but i just don't think we're there anymore.

Honestly, i think a live action film would perform BETTER than this cgi one we're getting but i pray i'm wrong especially if it's good. The filmmakers saying they need to bank 100 million is being overly optimistic to me, though. I think if it gets a sequel it will be due to it making back some buck on dvd sales.

 

[chosen1]

Trust me its gonna make over 250 million. Why?


in a word... children.

 

[TheVileOne]

That's a pretty bold prediction. But honestly, I wouldn't even rule it out.

But I imagine with the darker look and violence of the movie it might some of the Ice Age type demographic away.

 

[blind_fury]

opening weekend = 18 million

total domestic gross = 54 million

It just looks too cheesy.

 

[TheVileOne]

Yeah but CG animated movies beyond cheesy and bad will still make over $150-200 million at the BO.

 

[Prognosticator]

I see it doing business in the mid-50s as well.

I think the biggest setback is it suffers from too much "let's dust off an origin-based story again." Why would that bring back repeat viewers? It likely won't.

TMNT lacks a lot of supporting characters that fans probably want to see, and it'll deter them from coming right out to give it a try.

I'm a fan from way back, and glad they're doing this...but it feels like a retread of a retread Maybe that's just me, but it stalls my excitement level.

But I hope I'm wrong here. It'd be refreshing to see something like this bloom (although they've already had TWO successful long-running series).

 

[TheVileOne]

Umm...this isn't an origin story at all.

And what supporting characters is it lacking?

 

[Prognosticator]

Well, if what you say is true, I may have read a dark article...

Which would be good news!

Do we have the link to the new site yet?

 

[amazingfantasy15]

Well now that Ghost Rider has passed the $100million mark and 300 made $70million in it's opening weekend, do you think these successes will help TMNT's box office. I know little kids are really excited, my 4-year old niece told me she wants to see it and my cousin's two young sons are big fans of the new series. These two movies show movie goers are still excited about comic franchises even if they are a little chessy (Ghost Rider). I really think it looks like a slightly darker version of the Incredibles.

Prognosticator, the latest TV spots make it seem like the movie takes place after the Turtles broke apart for a while and they've got to reunite to stop the new threat.

 

[pickleweed]

well, i dont know what kind of hold the turtles have on the youngsters anymore, but its safe to say that their is already a pretty good installed fanbase. the new show has been on for a couple years (which is something in itself) not to mention older fans like myself. the trailers arent really doing it jusice (or maybe it is ) but that hasnt stopped me from wanting to see it. id imagine im a pretty normal turtle fan. basically it breaks down like this for me: big fan base vs crappy trailers. not to mention that the ad campaign is generally lacking (some people dont even know the movie exists and we're 2 weeks away).

im predicting a lackluster BO, but am praying for a good movie nonetheless.

 

[Brainiac 8]

If it's good and I like it, who cares if it makes it huge in the B.O.

I'll still be enjoying it.

 

[LostSon88]

I don't know, I mean i'm sure it will be successful but for whatever reason, I can't see it doing Pixar type numbers at the B.O.

I can't explain why its just a feeling...i'm thinking maybe 80-90 mil domestic? Pretty low I know but...I just don't see it being a mega blockbuster ala The Incredibles or Ice Age.

Hopefully, i'm proven wrong. t:

 

[pickleweed]

and why is ice age a blockbuster? or happy feet for that matter. those were the two biggest loads ive seen in a long while. best animated feature my ass *muthasonofa*****uck....*

 

[Orko Is King]

My guess is somewhere in the $120 million ballpark.

 

[LostSon88]

and why is ice age a blockbuster? or happy feet for that matter. those were the two biggest loads ive seen in a long while. best animated feature my ass *muthasonofa*****uck....*

Ice Age wasn't bad...Happy Feet was stupid.

"You're not a pengwin unless you can sing."

They lost me right after that line. Just like this movie lost Peter:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJoMMt1nSMc

 

[TheVileOne]

I don't see 300 and Ghost Rider having an effect, because it's not the same fanbases or audience.

TMNT will be going more for younger kids than those films. But I agree with LostSon, I don't quite see it doing Pixar numbers either. Maybe more along the lines of Open Season numbers.

But it seems almost any CG animated picture no matter what the quality is pretty much guaranteed $100 million or more these days. Except Happily N'ever After garbage.