TMNT Box Office Predictions and Discussion

I read on the main page a month or two back that TMNT would have to make $100 for them to make another one. I hope it does that. I think if it makes 80 million we'll get another one. Anyone know what the cost of this movie was?

I voted for 50-100 million. I really want it to finsih 1st place opening weekend. They would get a lot of media buzz.
 
Yes, in Sci-Fi Magazine, the director said in an interview that if the movie doesn't make atleast 100 Million they won't do a sequel.
 
What is it with the WB all of the sudden putting these type of expectations on their movies?

First Superman Returns had to break 200 mil for a sequel...now TMNT has to break 100 mil?!?! What is their problem? :dry:
 
I still question if Superman Returns will actually get a sequel. I'm still not sure that it was a gamble that paid off.
 
It's NOT gonna be the break-out smash of the first film. That's for sure. How can it be? The Turtles phenomenom is no longer at its peak, it's not the first film, it's not live action (which will automatically deter someone), and it doesn't have enough originality (tied to the last points, and others). I think they'll turn a profit -- but they'll be lucky to get *much* past breaking even. I don't think enough people are that jazzed up about it. Part of this is due to market conditions, but a lot is to down to the approach (IMO).

The film looks too inconsequential and too juvenile by half. I argued this on IMDb and got beaten to death, but it's the truth. The original succeeded for a number of reasons, and one of those reasons is that it entertained and appealed to adults -- or certainly *young* adults -- as much as it did kids. In fact, the film's writers, director and producer ALL made that point. They consciously crafted it that way for reasons of ART and COMMERCE combined. By giving the material an adult inflection, it uplifted and enriched somewhat-staid plot elements (sorry, but to work as a feature film, you need more sophistication and complexity than your average comic), AND it ensured that they'd turn a larger profit (children's tickets are cheaper -- you need adults to show up and pay full price for themselves for big bucks).

Steve Barron took on the original film because, in his own words, he'd never seen it done before. Live action Turtles? It was the one medium left to conquer. Cinema had had Superman and Batman -- human or human-like figures -- but never strange anthropomorphic *creatures* that dwelled underground. It was an exciting project and he was spurred on by that very uniqueness. The original was highly innovative, using animatronic techniques never invented before, and combining disparate elements (e.g. rap music and noir-like cello strings in the soundtrack) into a dark, kinetic, frenzied, violent, pulsating, rhythmic whole. We're just not getting that same level of innovation here, and art needs innovation to survive. The trailers and pre-release material just haven't been fresh enough; they're competent, but nothing out of the ordinary. Word of mouth will ground this film. It'll probably do alright, but it's not going to take flight.
 
Agree 100% Cryogenic. The movie also looks kinda crappy, so it'll hurt the B.O. as well.
 
Agree 100% Cryogenic. The movie also looks kinda crappy, so it'll hurt the B.O. as well.

That's what I was hinting at, in slightly more verbose terms. :woot:

It looks like they've just made a conventional action-adventure movie ... with Turtles.

But that's not enough of a sell. You need to push the boat out and do something different. Something that people couldn't have anticipated; something intriguing, alluring and almost ... sexy. Something to pique people's interest and get their attention. We live in a fickle world, especially today's net-based / MP3-driven / 100-channel-cable-saturated society, where information and distractions compete for every neurone of our being. A routine film about characters that also now feel "routine" -- because of all their previous exposure -- just won't cut it. Like Splinter said in the first movie: "Our domain is the shadow. Stray from it reluctantly, for when you do, you must strike hard and fade away, without a trace." The first movie struck hard, alright, but the Turtles didn't stray reluctantly or fade away; in many people's eyes, they thoroughly outstayed their welcome. The average moviegoer thinks they've seen and heard it all, and this new movie isn't doing anything to change that.

I was 50/50 on that very first trailer: I could take it or leave it. While the CG and noir-like, Germanic style was interesting, it wasn't enough to enthrall me; the presence of Matrix-like framing / action / music only served to turn me off. There wasn't enough UNIQUNESS there. I'm sure it was the same for many people. I'm not talking hardcore TMNT fanatics, since they're bound to love anything with a hint of quality about it; I'm talking about the average person who MIGHT be interested ... if only they're shown something INTERESTING ENOUGH. But the first trailer didn't cut the mustard. However, it wasn't a complete failure; the theatrical could still have turned things around. But what was the theatrical trailer? Just your average Hollywood action trailer, replete with dumb voiceover, silly quips, stupid text-bites, a fantastical plot, bland percussive-driven music etc. Yawn. The film set its fate at that moment. Nothing released since has really deviated from that image. But all it takes is a few good ideas. Or even ONE good idea. Take the original movie's trailer. Although the film was destined to be huge regardless, they actually went for a subversive balletic feel (e.g. pop version of Strauss' "Blue Danube"). The clever structure sold it. And how about the trailer for "The Matrix"? "Unfortunately, no one can be told what The Matrix is ... you have to see it for yourself." BRILLIANT! That was an open invitation to check the film out. Even something like the trailer for "Ice Age", with the squirrel character going to absurd lengths for an acorn, was witty and funny. Everything concerning this latest TMNT film is the opposite of that -- bland and predictable.

We saw what happened when filmmakers go the "safe" route (i.e. "Superman Returns"). I was 50/50 on the first trailer, as with TMNT, and I felt dejected watching the second trailer, as with TMNT. The filmmakers did nothing of true value and earnt nothing of true value. He who dares, wins (well, sometimes), but he who sits in the corner ... just sits in the corner. I mean, the filmmakers were so lacking in balls that they even castrated themselves by drawing on past glories (i.e. recycled lines, just like TMNT). To pick up the metaphor of my earlier paragraph, people just weren't "turned on". History is now in the process of repeating itself.

P.S. Don't believe all that marketing speak from Thom Gray. He speaks like a true producer -- i.e with a forked tongue. Remember: After overseeing the original film, this is the same guy that was responsible for destroying the franchise with II and III. What reputation does he have left? Note: According to people like Judith Hoag and Robbie Rist -- i.e. April and Mikey -- Steve Barron was locked in a constant struggle with him over quality. Let's suppose that isn't true, but why would they lie? And look at the evidence: Gray's first idea was to film the original in Hong Kong on a shoestring budget. His resume is also dominated by the Turtles films; he's a one-trick pony with little taste or talent. In other words, **** Gray. Making the film in live action wouldn't be as expensive as he's said; he's just constructed a strawman argument to justify the cheaper (i.e. CG) approach. Then again, it probably would cost MORE, even adjusted for inflation, than in 1989. Why? Because that entire brand of artistry has been kicked into the ground as cinema has been raped to death with cheap photography, bland production design and digital environments and characters. But just look what The Jim Henson Company did on "Farscape" -- they made a TV show look like a feature film!!! :wow:
 
You make some good points and everything. But I like the CG animation route this time.

I did like Farscape, but it didn't always look that impressive to me. More than anything the actors sold it all very well even when it looked cheap.
 
You make some good points and everything. But I like the CG animation route this time.

I'm not fundamentally opposed to it ........... but Steve Barron consciously strove to take advantage of live action and made the Turtles meaningful. The first motion picture is quite a powerful coming-of-age tale. The CG just isn't working towards something truly awe-inspiring and different here.

I did like Farscape, but it didn't always look that impressive to me. More than anything the actors sold it all very well even when it looked cheap.

That's true. Sometimes, it looked like ass. But that's because they were doing complex things on a TELEVISION budget and timescale. A movie is a different proposition. Anyway ....... anyone who doubts the brilliance of the Henson people should just watch the Farscape ep. "The Way We Weren't".
 
If Ice Age got a sequel, this should easily get one. The humor of Ice Age never really got a chuckle out of me.
 
I'm surprised at how low some of your predictions are...I mean 19 million opening? C'mon... :dry:

Considering the fanbase (NEW & OLD) and the track record of CGI animated films at the box office (give or take 2 or 3 flops) I predict an opening in the mid-40s to low 50s and an overall take of maybe 90 mil domestic.
 
Regardless of B.O. takes, I do expect a very entertaining film.
 
I'm surprised at how low some of your predictions are...I mean 19 million opening? C'mon... :dry:

Considering the fanbase (NEW & OLD) and the track record of CGI animated films at the box office (give or take 2 or 3 flops) I predict an opening in the mid-40s to low 50s and an overall take of maybe 90 mil domestic.
We'll see. Once again, not much surprises me at the BO anymore.

And having a fanbase does not guarantee big money or that everyone will go and see the movie. Look at Eragon.
 
LOL!

I feel the same way. I just don't think anyone is dying to see this movie. It's just seems like another CG been there done that kinda film. Just another tame pixar movie that no one likes, like Flushed Away.

Idk though, it may surprise me and end up being good. I'm still disputing on whether to see this in theaters or not. I use to love the turtles but they died out and we growed up.

But remember when they were at their peak :D
 
We'll see. Once again, not much surprises me at the BO anymore.

And having a fanbase does not guarantee big money or that everyone will go and see the movie. Look at Eragon.

But you're comparing a 4 year old "franchise" to one that's been around for close to 20 years and has been in action figures, video games, movies, cereal, comic books, concert tours, cartoons etc. etc. Their two very different "animals". :cwink:

Fans alone may or may not be enough to guarantee a hit movie, but TMNT for sure has the odds in their favor.
 
But you're comparing a 4 year old "franchise" to one that's been around for close to 20 years and has been in action figures, video games, movies, cereal, comic books, concert tours, cartoons etc. etc. Their two very different "animals". :cwink:

Fans alone may or may not be enough to guarantee a hit movie, but TMNT for sure has the odds in their favor.
I still don't think brand recognition or a pre-existing fanbase guarantees that they will go see the movie.
 
That's like saying Star Wars fans wouldn't go see a new Star Wars movie.

Like I said, its not a guarantee that they will go out to see it...but its more than likely.
 
Yeah but you know, Ninja Turtles ain't Star Wars.
 
Maybe 1 or 2. None of which were very popular. TMNT on the other hand have some that are regarded as classics...

Seriously, you just can't compare the Ninja Turtle franchise to Eragon...its no contest which one has the bigger fanbase on the whole.
 

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