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TMNT Box Office Predictions and Discussion

How much do you think TMNT will make in the US Box Office?

  • $0 - $50 million

  • $50 million - $100 million

  • $100 million - $150 million

  • $150 million - $200 million

  • more than $200 million


Results are only viewable after voting.
I agree you can't compare Eragon with TMNT, just I also agree you can't compare TMNT to Star Wars.

I just want this movie to open up #1 in for that weekend at the box office, that way people will talk about it more. If it comes in 3rd place the media is going to bury it and talk about how people how 0 interest left in TMNT which isnt true.

I think 300 will hold on to the#1 spot this weekend, then next weekend it will be a toss up. TMNT, is opening against Shooter (Mark Walhberg movie) that Adam Sandler Riegn Over Me (R rating will kill it) The Last Mimzy, Pirde, and The Hills Have Eyes 2. So there's a lot of 10-20 million opening ones there. Pride you never know could sneak in there which a strong showing from black people. Then again I guess TMNT could get a strong showing from Ninjas. Anywho, I don't know if they can do it, but maybe they can open at number 1..now I got to go find some Cheese Nips..
 
I think this movie will bomb. It looks as good as TMNT 3 and if it is, it really should bomb. But who knows.
 
Just from watching the clips, I can tell this will definitely be better than the third TMNT movie. It may even turn out as nicely as the first one. The new movie has received nothing but positive reviews from those who have seen it -- and the medium should lend itself well to the storytelling. For one, CGI lets you do more ridiculous things without looking so awful. Better to create your own world than try to measure up to the real one with a budget this low. I'm not sure whether the movie will be GREAT, but to state that it's only as good as that piece of obscenity is absurd. Visually, I think the new movie looks awesome -- just watch the Leo/Raph argument or the Leo vs. South American guerillas. Those are some wonderfully intense scenes.:woot:

The only thing that could keep the crowds away might be the very outlandish plot and the painfully unoriginal dialog. :dry: Not that the first TMNT movie lacked in either of these categories.
 
The only thing that could keep the crowds away might be the very outlandish plot and the painfully unoriginal dialog. :dry: Not that the first TMNT movie lacked in either of these categories.

Actually ............ IT DID.

Although the plot may have been somewhat outlandish and the dialogue somewhat silly, these elements were also grounded in a verisimilar reality. The plot kept fantasy to a minimum (e.g. master plot involved runaway teens) and the dialogue had a heightened sense of its own absurdity (e.g. "Bossa Nova?!"). On this latter point, notice that they saved "Cowabunga" till the end of the picture, and had Splinter announce that he had "always liked" it? It was clearly a wink at the audience. But in some of the pre-release footage for this new film, Michelangelo can be heard exclaiming it as he "surfs" down the sewers. This film is going to be held back by its lack of intelligence. What was once seen as silly and played as such, even when the Turtles were just hitting the big screen, has now been assimilated into the narrative of this new picture and treated as normal.

You may accuse me of over-intellectualising the property of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, but people do subconsciously pick up on these things and will consciously respond to those signals. The large fanbase may work equally for and against this film. Where the old filmmakers were trying to appeal to 20-somethings who probably didn't know much about TMNT, these new filmmakers are in the strange position of having the 20-somethings of today as VETERAN TURTLES FANS; on the one hand, these fans are drawn to the property because it's part of their childhood, but on the other, their standards are likely to be high, especially since the first film was so darn good and has stood the test of time. The box office will be VERY interesting to see.
 
I don't recognize any of Villains,who are they,where is Shredder?
 
This movie is in the continuity of the live action films so Shredder is dead. Think of this as part IV...

The villians I believe are:

Max Winters
Random Monsters
Karai--the new leader of the foot clan.
 
how much did this film cost to make though. considering its supposed to be on the cheap end of the cgi wagon it should'nt have to make 100 million to earn back its production cost . then again i'm not factoring in marketing cost either.

oh well, if ghost rider and wild hogs can make 100+ million TMNT should'nt have an issue
 
Well.... after seeing movie clips and reading some reviews, I am not so confident that TMNT will make it past the 100mil mark. Sorry Kevin Munroe, I know you had to fight through Hell and back to get a CG TMNT made, but this one might only be appreciated by fans or curious people who actually investigated some of the Ninja Turtles backstory, not only limited to the movies or TV shows.

There are some parts of the clips that are really awesome, others that leave me with a twisted face. The animation rocks at times, but then absolutely sucks. Some of the design is wonderful. Like one reviewer said, lots of noir-like shots. Very lovely. But I can't get over the fact that the human designs SUCK SUCK SUCK SUCK SUCK... I hate being blunt. And I know how difficult it probably was to hire an inspired design team, but that doesn't change the end product of the design.

I already know the movie won't be great. It's not that the dialog isn't Shakespeare, or deep. It's that it flows nicely when it's not copping out, and suddenly pulls the magic rug from beneath us, breaking the believability of the moment.

Take that nice argument between Leo and Raph which began strongly. All of a sudden, the dialog became almost irritatingly weak. It was like no one besides the director/scriptwriter got to take a look at it and point out that it was weak and could stand to be tweaked to give it more raw power. (For what it's worth though, I think the vocal performances were superb considering what they had to work with. Most of the energy from the scene came from the delivery.) Leo's line "I'm better than you" is supposedly the climax of the argument. What should happen is that Leo convey the message without stating the obvious. Raph makes an equally weak comeback.

I was led to expect, through the energy of the argument, that somehow this would resolve in such a way that would make my hair stand on end. But in the end, Leo did not truly insult Raph. That is, his "insult" was hardly an insult worth fighting over. My God. I've said smarter equivalents of the "And you know something? I'm better than you" line to my little brother when we had our superiority squabbles.

The bottom line of my impressions thus far: we're given all this momentum, and then it stops. Or it gets offset by something as weak as the preceding was strong. I really hope the rest of the movie isn't this way. That'll keep the crowds from coming, regardless of what the critics say.

I for one will see the movie. But I'm going in mainly for curiosity as a part-time TMNT fan, hoping there might be some fun action segments, knowing that the plot might not unite the whole "stick together as a family" theme with a toy commercial... "Every 3000 years the stars align, unleashing an army of monsters--" Come on. If you're going to have an outlandish plot, then use one that hasn't already been parodied to death. Actually, I swear that was the intro to one toy commercial I heard...

Okay, I really ought to keep the crude harshness down a bit. I've read up and heard of the director's enthusiasm, his knowledge that he had a tough project ahead of him. He was a TMNT fan who wanted to make a good movie.

I'm a little ticked cause I wished Munroe could have waited -- or that he'd gotten more support for this film. From the clips, it looks like there's a lot of strong stuff, scattered here and there. But the tension, the momentum builds and then stops without resolution or adequate climax -- I'm speaking on a small level here, from the individual snippets we've seen. But my prediction is that this is an indicator of the movie as a whole -- it will have its moments here and there, but will probably be disjointed and won't be fulfilling.

The first Ninja Turtles live action movie had on its side the great weapon of novelty and discovery. It was an introduction into the secret lives of creatures that might live beneath our feet. It played to our sense of curiosity-- what was that I thought I saw out of the corner of my eye down that alley? Those rooftops are pretty high up -- someone could be watching me and I'd never know it. The first movie was also more sure of its purpose and that's why I think it "delivered" for most people. Though I still didn't like it much, it at least gave what it promised. It didn't build my expectations and then betray "the big payoff" by giving less than it implied it would give. Kevin has promised something sort of new -- an edge on family. Tension, rivalry, and teamwork. Will he deliver?

For a franchise this old, this classic... I disagree that you should fudge something just for the hell of "whoopie, making another TMNT movie!!" Give us something new, but don't give us crap. This isn't the 90's. We want our "sequels" (yeah, I know this isn't a sequel, but it's still got something to measure up to, like it or not). I'm sure the director tried very hard not to give us the latter. I hope for his sake, as for the sake of the TMNT franchise, that this movie does better than I think it will.


And Cryogenic... I'm sorry for being so vague in my earlier comment but that's my irritating way. I know I've gotten many people angry or confused in the past. Hope this clears up my views somewhat. And I see nothing wrong with "intellectualizing the TMNT property." I particularly like what you said here:

Cryogenic said:
What was once seen as silly and played as such, even when the Turtles were just hitting the big screen, has now been assimilated into the narrative of this new picture and treated as normal.

When a TMNT movie ceases to be silly, it had better redeem itself in other categories. Action, dialogue, animation, VA, plot had better be damn good.

I don't think it'll be damn good in any of these areas except perhaps voice acting and maybe music, but whatever. I'll see for myself this weekend. I expect a mild, heartless, mindless, fun, culturally inaccurate action flick that will try to develop a brain and heart but will, most likely, get lost on the way to the Emerald City of catharsis.
 
I think ninjaspyder13 makes some great points. Some of which I agree with.

The clips have made left me pretty mixed. Honestly, some of which I was expecting. But I still plan on seeing the movie at least once and see if it will still hold together at a feature length.

I'll say the reel I saw at Comic Con, with the great narration and anecdotes with Mako as Splinter was awesome and very inspiring.

These clips, well they didn't quite do for me what the SDCC reel did, and that had a ton of unfinished footage.

I'm still trying to get over the absolute disgust I have for Evans as Casey Jones, who just looks and acts totally wrong as Casey Jones. On the other side of it, at least they seemed to get the turtles right. And their portrayals seem to be the strongest so far.
 
And Cryogenic... I'm sorry for being so vague in my earlier comment but that's my irritating way. I know I've gotten many people angry or confused in the past. Hope this clears up my views somewhat. And I see nothing wrong with "intellectualizing the TMNT property."

Thanks! And on the contrary ... you've communicated some great thoughts!

I actually agree with every word you just said. Let's take that rain scene. On paper, it's a fantastic idea, but in execution, it looks weak. Not only is the dialogue poorly written, but the way the Turtles emote is completely overdone. What's with all the pointing? The whole thing is so forced, but it should be one of the dramatic high points of the movie. The original movie actually underplayed a lot of things, from the deliberately understated performance of Danny, to the way that Raph was a cynical crazyman while Leo was the straight and quiet one. Scenes had the right ebb and flow. Performances didn't clash or overwhelm; they complemented and augmented each other. If there's one thing I like about the rain scene (besides the rendering), then it's Raph's voice -- he sounds a little like Alec Baldwin! Great new interpretation of the character. But the dramatics are shallow and overblown, IMO. You see the same thing when they argue in the apartment; more raised voices and more pointing. It's too much. Talking of that scene: the little moments don't gell properly. When Donnie says, "This has Winter's name written all over it!" and comes out with a goofy grin, it's really awkward. Add in Michaelangelo's silly quips and antics, an April that looks like a girl, is voiced by Sarah Michelle Gellar (!!) and can perform ninja, a very youthful Casey ... and on. Though more dignified than II and III, it looks like a very dumbed down movie to me.

But kids don't need to be patronised. The original movie didn't insult my intelligence at all. They didn't hold back. I remember the first time I saw April interviewing Sterns, the camera panning back to someone watching it on a TV screen -- no, multiple TV screens -- and then a dagger suddenly hitting the screen. "Find her! Silence her!" I was seven at the time and it scared me to death. But I kept watching. There had already been dark moments before that, and there were certainly more to come. It was a compelling film that drew me in. And it had that wonderful sense of camaraderie and wit. I knew I was watching something special, even as a little kid, but I just couldn't articulate it back then. Reality is not nice. It's ugly, repugnant and truly ****ed up. Why make a disposable entertainment when you can actually make something more meaningful? Behind the relatively safe and enjoyable front of the Turtles lurked a powerful family / crime drama, an adult screwball comedy and a touching coming-of-age story. Put simply: it had an intensity that I responded to. I still respond to it. The movie works the same way for me now as it always did; once a good movie, always a good movie. Why make crap? Why pander? Childhood shouldn't be denied, but neither should reality. The original managed to fuse both into an organic whole. I will always be grateful for that.

This new film has its head in the clouds. The fact that it might have a story about family and kinship is irrelevant. Execution is everything! And the execution here is lacking. I can see people accusing me -- whether directly or in their heads -- that I'm too attached to the original. I'm certainly attached to it, but not simply because it's a film I saw in my youth (I also saw "Power Rangers" and "Superman IV" and loved them at the time -- not now!). It's the way that the original pulled everything off. Because it really did! But even execution aside, the plot was inspired all by itself. Kids stealing stuff and doing whatever the hell they wanted? AWESOME! But wait! Their lives are actually messed up. They're being used. BULL****! That was a great thing to put out. The film directly appealed to the latent lusts and frustrations of its main demographic, but showed the price of those same feelings and desires. And it had real humanity all over the map. There was an honesty to everything it showed. It's "emotionally true". And that's where execution re-enters the picture: for every moment of humour or bombast, there was another of pathos and subtlety. That early scene of Donatello talking to Michaelangelo under the sewer grating is extremely touching: its emotional weight is predicated on glances and timing, not simply words and gestures. It's a very truthful moment. You watch as Donnie tries to break the ice by remarking "nice night", or stumbles for the words to begin a serious discussion with his brother, or the way Michaelangelo never even looks at him because he's too afraid to contemplate what he's being asked, or the way Donnie jerks his head back when Michaelangelo completely blanks him. It could be from any drama, except it's got that extra stylistic pull of Turtles and sewers. I haven't seen any footage from this new movie that remotely compares. It's limited by itself.
 
i think the activity on this board is a pretty good indicator. we're pretty much one of the major demographics and this place is dead. not looking good for the turtles.
 
After realizing what's opening the following week...Blades of Glory (Will Ferrell and Napolean Dynamite in one movie = Money in the bank) and Disney/Pixars "Meet the Robinsons"...I'm afraid to say that TMNT will most likely not break 100mil as I originally predicted.

I'm now thinking 70-75 mil domestic...I doubt that'll be good enough to warrant a sequel. :csad:
 
300turtlesxw0.jpg
 
Anyone comparing TMNT to Open Season gotta be kidding granted I don't think it's going to set box office records but I do think TMNT will do well enough to earn a second movie. I could see TMNT doing between 100 to 115 million because of the fan base they gained since the 2003 re launch and the old school fans. Like most people said on other threads the reviews coming in for the movie are mostly good so you won't get that one weekend net gain and quickly die off in the box offices.
 

Interesting pic...

So, is this a prediction that TMNT will be loved by the masses? Or will 300 totally rape TMNT's ass this weekend? Or neither and you just really wanted to show us this comparison of two super masculine sanguiphiles before a major fight in the rain?:cwink:
 
Ok here's my final prediction for the weekend, and it saddens me to put this:

1. 300: 22.4 Million (it's just too strong still)
2. TMNT: 16.3
3. The Hills Have Eyes 2: 14.1
4. Wild Hogs: 13.3
5. Shooter: 11.8
6. Pride: 9.9
7. The Last Mimzy: 9.3
8. Reign Over Me: 8.8

I
 
I don't think 300 will have a dropoff that low this weekend.
 
Kids wont care about the plot...all they'll see is a NEW Disney/Pixar movie. Their reputation alone (Pixar/Disney) just might be enough to fill dem' seats.
 
I based my predictions on what other movies like it did. Like the Hills Have Eyes 1 opened at like 15-16 million, I dont think it can open as strong because a lot of people that went to the first may not take the time to go to the second if they didnt just love it.

I went and looked at Mark Walhberg's "Four Brothers" to get a ideal on how much he made opening weekend with it, being R rated, but I had to cut some of the opening numbers out due to Four Brothers had a higher black percentage that went to see it, that would see shooter. Not being rasict, just pointing out reasons why I think Four Brothers will end up with better opening weekend.

Reign Over Me, - I went and looked at Sandler's last serious movie opening and it had 8 million or so. So thats how I got that number.

I agree, famlies and teenages will be looking for something to go see this weekend. Some theaters around here will let under 17 to see a R movie, so want, so a lot of people if going to the movies will be, I don't want to use this word, but stuck seeing TMNT.

I think Meet the Robinsons though will probably double what TMNT makes, esp if TMNT makes under 20 million this weekend. I can see why people working on TMNT moved it up a week.
 
The Friday estimate for TMNT is $ 8.7 million. It should have a good Saturday bump because of its appeal to kids, so it should have a weekend take in the mid to high 20's.

300 will be second (the Friday estimate is $ 6.1 million) and will likely have a weekend take in the $ 18-20 million range.
 
A $20-25 million weekend would be just great, I think. With Reign Over Me, Shooter, Hills Have Eyes, Pride and The Last Mimzy all opening, and 300 still going strong, no one movie was going to dominate.

With a budget of, I think, only about $40 million, we'll get a sequel. Turtles are back, no doubt.
 
should make at least 140 million worldwide.

that will be at least a 50 million dollar profit not including dvd sales which will be through the roof.
 
A $20-25 million weekend would be just great, I think.
Family friendly films with kiddie appeal tend to have good opening weekend multipliers, so I think it'll have an opening weekend in the range of $ 25-28 million. It could go even higher if the family demo turns out very strongly on Saturday.
 
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