Well I don’t think the three best pictures of the year were not nominated, but that’s not the point of this thread.
Best picture: Of the nominees for best picture, my list of favorite goes:
1. Juno
2. There Will Be Blood
3. Atonement
4. Michael Clayton
5. No Country for Old Men
BUT HOW IT WILL GO DOWN:
Best Picture: The vastly overrated No Country for Old Men, will win.
Best Director: So many great works and names ignored. Reitman being up here is strange. I disagree. While I loved Juno, it was the culmination of many ingredients of small stature coming together to make the perfect brew. While that is what a director is supposed to do, its visual narrative and auteur stamp are too small for him to deserve the win, and his name is not well known enough to win. Gilroy being nominted is odd. Anderson deserves the win, but:
Who will win: Coens.
Best Actor: DDL is simply phenomenal in everything, but as Daniel Plainview he really outdoes himself. To say he deserves the Oscar is an understatement. With that said if it were not for Lewis, I think this should be Viggo Mortenson’s year, as his criminally underrated performance in Eastern Promises is mezmorizing, unflinching and best of all authentic. But he would never win. If not for Lewis, this would go to Clooney. Clooney is a good movie star who turns his image on his head and is quite good in the role of the understated Clayton. But he is surrounded by such a compelling cast, script and direction it lifts up his performance beyond what it should be considered as. Depp was really good as well, but he and Burton are notoriously hated (okay, maybe just Burton) by the Academy. I’m surprised something so unconventional was even nominated. I also think that Tommy Lee Jones being nominated over James MacAvoy in Atonement is ridiculous.
Who will win: The much deserving Daniel Day Lewis
Best Actress: I haven’t seen but two of these, so I cannot fairly comment, but I liked Page a lot. However, I do not think it was the Oscar winning role. I have to add though that Blanchett being nominated for the melodramatic trite that was Elizabeth “2” shows nothing but the Academy’s love for Blanchett, period dramas and under the table bribes from Miramax.
Who will win: Julie Christie.
Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem deserves the win. But what an amazing category this year. Casey Affleck was simply unforgettable and awe inspiring in The Assassination of Jesse James. Bardem barely edges him out. Tom Wilkenson was equally impressive as the scene stealing lawyer who flipped his lid and had a moment of conscious clarity in Michael Clayton. As good as Hoffman is in Charlie Wilson’s War I’m not sure he deserved the nomination over Paul Dano’s very underrated turn in TWBB. Hal Hallbrook was good in Into the Wild and extremely touching. He stands the most likely to upset Bardem, but it would be a career achievement vote over who clearly deserves this.
Who will win: Javier Bardem.
Best Supporting Actress: I really liked Amy Ryan in Gone Baby Gone. I think she really earned this. But Cate Blanchett could easily upset her as Bob Dylan. While I think she was quite good the casting and subsequent praise is over novelty more than anything (IMO), but I know the Academy sure loves novelty. Both the little girl in Atonement and Tilda Swinson were memorable and striking in how they went from sympathy to hatable in their movies (tragically in the former’s case). Ruby Dee was very good in her strong small role in American Gangster, but she has no chance of winning and this is a career achievement nomination. Good to see the recognition though.
Who will win: Amy Ryan, I hope.
Best Screenplay original: This is where I’d choose to award Michael Clayton. It was extremely well written and very intelligent and I think soars most from this aspect. But I think Juno’s hype will get it the win here and only here (unfortunately on both counts).
Best Screenplay adapted: Atonement should win this and I think probably will. There Will Be Blood is so smally based on previous material I don’t think it deserves the win. Though this could be the place where the Academy boringly and wrongingly chooses to continue to flaunt the Coens worship they adore so much.
Best Cinematography: The Assassination of Jesse James hands down deserves this win by a landslide as far as I’m concerned. With that said, I KNOW No Country for Old Men will win it.
Best Editing: Into the Wild or There Will Be Blood, both deserve it.
Best Set Design: Probably the only place Sweeney Todd will be acknowledged.
Best Costume Design: Sweeney Todd should win, but Atonement will. Which is okay. I could see the Academy’s love for period pieces, particularly those set in Elizabethan or Tudors times letting the gaudy Elizabeth sequel be the winner.
Best Score: Atonement will and should win (TWBB not being nominated here, really shocks me).
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