2008 Box Office Predictions & Discussions thread

[Excel]

TDK aint doing 400 million.

 

[Galactus]

Box Office Report have done some updates on their opening weekend predictions for May and added June-releaes:

May 02, 2008
Iron Man (Paramount) $67.0 m
Made of Honor (Sony) $12.0 m

May 09, 2008
Speed Racer (Warner Bros.) $47.0 m
What Happens in Vegas (Fox) $25.0 m

May 16, 2008
The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (Disney) $95.0 m

May 22, 2008
Indiana Jones 4 (Paramount) $110.0 m

May 30, 2008
Sex and the City (New Line) $35.0 m
The Strangers (Rogue) $6.0 m

June 06, 2008
Kung Fu Panda (Paramount/DreamWorks) $45.0 m
You Don't Mess With the Zohan (Sony) $35.0 m

June 13, 2008
The Incredible Hulk (Universal) $40.0 m
The Happening (Fox) $33.0 m

June 20, 2008
Get Smart (Warner Bros.) $37.0 m
The Love Guru (Paramount) $27.0 m

June 27, 2008
Wall-E (Disney) $65.0 m
Wanted (Universal) $42.0 m

 

[odiin]

TDK aint doing 400 million.

I was about to yell at you for insisting that TDK wasn't going to do at least 400 million worldwide.... until I looked at the other page and saw that the guy you were referring to was saying it would do 400 million domestically.

Yeah, that's... pretty crazy.

 

[Galactus]

Wow, people are actually voting in the poll on the main page that Iron Man will make $151-$160 million in the first three days. I wonder if they really belive that or are voting just for fun. I suppose the later seems more likely...

 

[Erzengel]

On IMDB, they did the same "what's going to be the biggest hit",

Indiana Jones - 9,840 votes (36.1%)
The Dark Knight - 9,188 votes (33.7%)
Harry Potter - 5,689 (20.9%)

Iron Man was #6 with 367 votes (1.3%).

 

[Excel]

Wow, people are actually voting in the poll on the main page that Iron Man will make $151-$160 million in the first three days. I wonder if they really belive that or are voting just for fun. I suppose the later seems more likely...

Yeah; thats a much more realistic total than opening weekend...i currently have it pegged at 65/200 ballparked.

Iron Man will be this summers break out...iron man 2 will do high 200's; howver expecting iron man to do over 225 million or so is setting yourself up for dissappointment.

 

[Erzengel]

Hold the phones here. Iron Man is like #3 on my list of movies to see but I think it's hysterical that you are already predicting Iron Man 2's gross when the first one hasn't even come out yet.

 

[Excel]

Eh, we've done this too many times. Test screenings are going great, the marketings going great...the film will open as high as it can and have good word of mouth...good word of mouth=big increase for the sequel.

It actually reminds me A LOT of the original Spiderman which got literally as much as it possibly could. Iron Man has to deal with comic book over exposure to the max and isnt nearly as well known or popular as Spidey, buth both films were audience crowd pleasers that had great marketing.

 

[Erzengel]

You are also posting on a comic book website.

 

[Excel]

And I also post (more often btw) on box office prediction websites....

worldofkj.com

check the forums, this stuff is all weve talked about for years. Im not even that big of a fan of Iron Man, Paramounts just dont a great job. Said in the iron man forums; the word from a buddy of ours who runs a theater chain in southern Cali is saying iron mans testing through the roof. Factor in superb marketing...

the best comparison overall would be mr. and mrs. smith. Expect this film to surprise with an opening weekend over 60 and multiplier over 3.3; both fantastic for the type of film it is.

 

[Erzengel]

And look at IMDB, Iron Man is a distant 6th?

 

[Excel]

Polls dont mean jack

 

[Cinemaman]

Right now I can say that Iron Man will make something between $65m and $75m

 

[Erzengel]

But hype on a messageboard does and IMDB is pretty solid place.

I'm not a fan of Iron Man but the movie does look really good and I am excited to see it, I'm just not going overboard on how much it may or may not make. And I'm definitely not saying how much the non-existent sequel is going to make.

 

[Excel]

Hype on a message board? I already told you why itll break out, its **** is lining up the same way Transformers, American Gangster, Mr. and Mrs. Smith, original Spider-man all did.

The marketplace is dead and will stay that way till it opens, I myself am a great judge of what sells and trust me when I say the marketing has been excellent, and word of mouth from the test screenings is through the roof. I don't need polls, I have the situation many times before and everytime you got a break out hit. Dead market+ good marketing will get people out on opening weekend, great word of mouth will fuel repeat viewings or get those interested to go see it.

Unless the tv spots totally die down, this films gonna hit 60 million opening weekend easy, which, excluding Spidey 3, would be the biggest May opener since 2003, and top a 3.0 multipler.

Tracking for it should be coming out on Monday, so well find outthen

 

[Erzengel]

Uh, you are all over the place dude.

Domestically, Mr. & Mrs. Smith made $119 Million, American Gangster $130 million, Transformers $329 and Spider-Man 3 $336.5 Million.

So you are talking of a $119 to $336.5 Million spectrum here?

Secondly, the marketplace is always dead around this time every year in anticipation for the May movies when business picks up again.

And how are you a great judge on what sells?

 

[bingy13]

These are my uneducated guesses because hey - this stuff is pretty unpredictable, especially this summer.

Iron Man - $215 million
Speed Racer - $110 million
The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian - $240 million
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - $290 million
Kung Fu Panda - $120 million
The Happening - $80 million
The Incredible Hulk - $140 million
Wall-E - $225 million
Wanted - $90 million
Hancock - $180 million
Hellboy II - $90 million
The Dark Knight - $310 million
X-Files - $60 million

 

[Excel]

Uh, you are all over the place dude.

Domestically, Mr. & Mrs. Smith made $119 Million, American Gangster $130 million, Transformers $329 and Spider-Man 3 $336.5 Million.

So you are talking of a $119 to $336.5 Million spectrum here?

Secondly, the marketplace is always dead around this time every year in anticipation for the May movies when business picks up again.

And how are you a great judge on what sells?

Mr. and Mrs. Smith made 185 million

This film is nothing like Spidey 3, never said it was. I compared it to Spidey 1.

The spectrum aint money, its performance. On a scale of 1-10, 10 being the best those films could have done and 1 being the worst...they all did 10's. Thats what Iron Man is looking to do. For a unknown hero with some huge movies coming up, it is gonna do the very best it could have.

You wouldnt know if I know or not, but I do as do the people at that website. I called 300 for Transformers back when the industry expected iot to be 2007s big bomb, called 45 million opening for American Gangster when everybody thought it would open mid to high 20's, and many more. You wouldnt know, you dont post at the website, but I have a legit feel for breakout hits and I am really feeling it with Iron Man and Im not a big Iron Man fan at all. Problem here is people dont realize that 65-70 opening weekend and 200 million total is HUGE for this kinda film.

 

[daniPHANTOM]

These are my uneducated guesses because hey - this stuff is pretty unpredictable, especially this summer.

Iron Man - $215 million
Speed Racer - $110 million
The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian - $240 million
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - $290 million
Kung Fu Panda - $120 million
The Happening - $80 million
The Incredible Hulk - $140 million
Wall-E - $225 million
Wanted - $90 million
Hancock - $180 million
Hellboy II - $90 million
The Dark Knight - $310 million
X-Files - $60 million

I think thats actually a fairly accurate estimate. Even though I was think TDK would be more in like $350 million and IJ would be somewhere around $340 million.

 

[Cinemaman]

Sorry me, but you're crazy, if you think TDK will make so much. I mean, yes, it's one of the most biggest events of this year, but it's not that kind of film, which would make $300m. I know that some people think so, because The Passion of the Christ made it, but only because of all these buzz and scandals with the Catholic Church.

My prediction is TDK will make about $270-280m, but not more.

 

[Erzengel]

Mr. and Mrs. Smith made 185 million

This film is nothing like Spidey 3, never said it was. I compared it to Spidey 1.

The spectrum aint money, its performance. On a scale of 1-10, 10 being the best those films could have done and 1 being the worst...they all did 10's. Thats what Iron Man is looking to do. For a unknown hero with some huge movies coming up, it is gonna do the very best it could have.

You wouldnt know if I know or not, but I do as do the people at that website. I called 300 for Transformers back when the industry expected iot to be 2007s big bomb, called 45 million opening for American Gangster when everybody thought it would open mid to high 20's, and many more. You wouldnt know, you dont post at the website, but I have a legit feel for breakout hits and I am really feeling it with Iron Man and Im not a big Iron Man fan at all. Problem here is people dont realize that 65-70 opening weekend and 200 million total is HUGE for this kinda film.

No offense dude but you know as much as everyone else here and you are essentially throwing darts and hoping to get the right answer.

All you have are guesses and sometimes they stick and sometimes they won't. But I wouldn't call you an expert on picking how much movies make just because you post at a website that discusses it.

 

[Galactus]

Another update on opening weekends-predictions from Box Office Report with July-movies added:

May 02, 2008
Iron Man (Paramount) $70.0 m
Made of Honor (Sony) $12.0 m

May 09, 2008
Speed Racer (Warner Bros.) $50.0 m
What Happens in Vegas (Fox) $20.0 m

May 16, 2008
The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (Disney) $92.0 m

May 22, 2008
Indiana Jones 4 (Paramount) $115.0 m

May 30, 2008
Sex and the City (New Line) $33.0 m
The Strangers (Rogue) $5.0 m

June 06, 2008
Kung Fu Panda (Paramount/DreamWorks) $47.0 m
You Don't Mess With the Zohan (Sony) $33.0 m

June 13, 2008
The Incredible Hulk (Universal) $42.0 m
The Happening (Fox) $30.0 m

June 20, 2008
Get Smart (Warner Bros.) $40.0 m
The Love Guru (Paramount) $25.0 m

June 27, 2008
WALL-E (Disney) $65.0 m
Wanted (Universal) $42.0 m

July 02, 2008
Hancock (Sony) $60.0 m

July 11, 2008
Hellboy II (Universal) $28.0 m
Journey to the Center of the Earth 3D (New Line) $18.0 m
Meet Dave (Fox) $15.0 m

July 18, 2008
The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) $85.0 m
Mamma Mia! (Universal) $22.0 m
Space Chimps (Fox) $8.0 m

July 25, 2008
The X-Files 2 (Fox) $30.0 m
Step Brothers (Sony) $24.0 m
The Longshots (MGM/Weinstein Co.) $10.0 m

 

[Electrofarce]

Movie Predictions In Their Opening Weekend:

Iron Man- $71 million
Speed Racer- $36 million
The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian- $80 million
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull- $96 million
Kung Fu Panda- $40 million
The Happening- $26 million
The Incredible Hulk- $46 million
Wall-E- $63 million
Wanted- $30 million
Hancock- $60 million
Hellboy 2- $30 million
The Dark Knight- $103 million
X-Files 2- $20 million

 

[terry78]

I'm waiting to see how TDK does. It'll get a lot more business than it was anyway due to the posthumous nature of people wanting to see his last film, and the fanboys wanting to see Joker on screen for the first time in almost 20 years.

 

[Excel]

Another update on opening weekends-predictions from Box Office Report with July-movies added:

May 02, 2008
Iron Man (Paramount) $70.0 m
Made of Honor (Sony) $12.0 m

May 09, 2008
Speed Racer (Warner Bros.) $50.0 m
What Happens in Vegas (Fox) $20.0 m

May 16, 2008
The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (Disney) $92.0 m

May 22, 2008
Indiana Jones 4 (Paramount) $115.0 m

May 30, 2008
Sex and the City (New Line) $33.0 m
The Strangers (Rogue) $5.0 m

June 06, 2008
Kung Fu Panda (Paramount/DreamWorks) $47.0 m
You Don't Mess With the Zohan (Sony) $33.0 m

June 13, 2008
The Incredible Hulk (Universal) $42.0 m
The Happening (Fox) $30.0 m

June 20, 2008
Get Smart (Warner Bros.) $40.0 m
The Love Guru (Paramount) $25.0 m

June 27, 2008
WALL-E (Disney) $65.0 m
Wanted (Universal) $42.0 m

July 02, 2008
Hancock (Sony) $60.0 m

July 11, 2008
Hellboy II (Universal) $28.0 m
Journey to the Center of the Earth 3D (New Line) $18.0 m
Meet Dave (Fox) $15.0 m

July 18, 2008
The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) $85.0 m
Mamma Mia! (Universal) $22.0 m
Space Chimps (Fox) $8.0 m

July 25, 2008
The X-Files 2 (Fox) $30.0 m
Step Brothers (Sony) $24.0 m
The Longshots (MGM/Weinstein Co.) $10.0 m

Does this website even look at the film schedule? Indiana Jones opens on a Thursday, there is no way it hits 115 especially if sith couldnt do it.