Summer predictions from Box Office Report:
Summer 2008 Box Office Predictions
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With the arrival of Iron Man and the start of the summer movie season, I have put together my list of early predictions for the summer. Some of the predictions will surely change in the weeks and months ahead when it comes to making final opening weekend predictions (especially for films opening in July and August), but this provides a picture of my thoughts going in. In years past I have usually used a cut-off point of 20 films, but this year I have decided to go with 25.
1. Indiana Jones & the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (May 22, Paramount) -- $320 m ($120 m 4-Day opening)
Last year the top five summer releases all finished within the $290 million - $340 million range, and given this year's schedule, I think we could be looking at a similar situation with the summer's top 4 films, as I don't see one breaking away from the pack at this point. Of the four films (all four of which I could see finishing in 1st for the summer), I like Indy's chances of coming out on top best. As a huge fan of the series, there may be some personal bias on my part here, but of any film this summer it is my feeling that Indiana Jones IV will best appeal to the widest range of demographics. With both younger moviegoers and older moviegoers (who've been waiting and waiting and waiting for the film) showing up, I'm expecting the film to come fairly close to the adjusted domestic takes of the first two sequels, which stand at roughly $370 million for Temple of Doom and $340 million for The Last Crusade.
2. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (May 16, Disney) -- $300 m ($90 m opening)
The online buzz for Prince Caspian hasn't been as high as I expected it to be a few months back, but at the same time, judging by the performance of The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe back in 2005, the Narnia series clearly plays extremely well with both younger moviegoers and with the Christian audience, two segments which are usually under-represented when it comes to the world of internet movie hype. While I'm not quite as confident in this prediction as in my predictions for the other three members of the big four, I feel that Prince Caspian will perform nearly on par with the first film (which had an adjusted gross of roughly $313 million) as the fans of the first film should turn out once again, albeit in a much more frontloaded fashion this time around. The weekend before Memorial Day weekend has become one of the year's biggest slots in the past few years, and I expect that to be the case once again this summer.
3. WALL-E (June 27, Disney) -- $290 m ($65 m opening)
Since reaching a box office peak with Finding Nemo back in 2003, Pixar's last three films, while still very successful in their own right, have experienced a steady decline at the domestic box office. As good as The Incredibles, Cars & Ratatouille have been as films, at the end of the day their respective box office takes suggest that they haven't appealed to kids to quite the same degree that Finding Nemo did. But with WALL-E, the first post-Nemo film from director Andrew Stanton, I think there is the likely potential for wider appeal both among children and the inner-children within adults. The fact that Hancock and the trio of July 11th releases aren't Transformers & Harry Potter 5 surely won't hurt either.
4. The Dark Knight (July 18, Warner Bros.) -- $280 m ($87 m opening)
While mine was clearly not the normal reaction, I was disappointed with Batman Begins. And yet, on a personal level The Dark Knight is still one of my most anticipated films of the summer. That says a lot to me about the film's potential to improve on the box office performance of the last film (its adjusted gross standing at roughly $220 million). I don't know if anyone can say for sure what effect the passing of Heath Ledger will have on the film's box office performance, so for the most part my box office expectations are the same as they were before Ledger's tragic death in January.
5. Iron Man (May 02, Paramount) -- $240 m ($85 m opening)
Cue the Black Sabbath!! While Iron Man may not be this superhero or that superhero within our collective consciousness, the ad-campaign has just worked, though I also think there is something to be said for solo superhero films being at a bit of a box office advantage in comparison to group superhero films. With a great trailer, buzz level and release date, I expect the film to do very well, especially with the same audiences that lined up for Spider-Man 3, Transformers, I Am Legend and 300 at various points last year.
6. Hancock (July 02, Sony) -- $210 m ($60 m 3-Day opening)
There seems to be a bit of an underwhelming wave surrounding Hancock, at least in comparison to many of Will Smith's other blockbuster outings. At the same time, it's almost impossible to bet against Will Smith at this point, especially after the recent better-than-expected performances of The Pursuit of Happyness & I Am Legend. It also has the Independence Day weekend slot to itself (at least when it comes to openers), though with Hellboy II and The Dark Knight in its horizon, legs could very well be an issue here.
7. Kung Fu Panda (June 06, DreamWorks/Paramount) -- $165 m ($45 m opening)
The non-Shrek computer animated films from DreamWorks have a history of opening in the $35 million - $50 million range, and I expect Kung Fu Panda to be no different, as there should be plenty of room for it in between Prince Caspian and WALL-E. While I don't think it will quite reach the heights of Madagascar, I do think it will represent a solid bounce back for DreamWorks after the so-so performance of Bee Movie this past November.
8. The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor (Aug. 01, Universal) -- $160 m ($57 m opening)
Seven years have passed since The Mummy Returns, which marks a sightly longer gap than the respective six year periods between sequels for the recent Mission Impossible and Rush Hour films, both of which failed to live up to pre-release box office expectations. I think this is likely going to be a problem for The Mummy 3 as well, though given the fantasy/adventure aspect of the series, I don't think it will feel as dated to quite the same degree that both MI3 and RH3 did.
9. Wanted (June 27, Universal) -- $135 m ($40 m opening)
Wanted has a strong chance of being the highest grossing non-animated June release this summer, in part because it doesn't have the box office baggage that both The Incredible Hulk & The Happening will bring with them going in. It also feels like the type of project in which Angelina Jolie's presence will really help at the box office. A lot here will also depend on the eventual reaction to Hancock, as the two films will be fighting for a similar audience. While neither film looks like my cup of tea, I personally feel that Wanted offers a much more exciting trailer at this point. While I can't imagine a scenario of Wanted actually outgrossing Hancock, it is quite possible that moviegoers could move towards either one and away from the other between now and their respective release dates.
10. Get Smart (June 20, Warner Bros.) -- $130 m ($37 m opening)
This is very similar to my Evan Almighty prediction going into last summer, which ended up as one of last summer's more disappointing performers. I expect a slightly stronger performance this time around for Steve Carell, as this feels like a safer bet, especially with the added presence of Anne Hathaway & Dwayne Johnson. While its opening weekend potential may be limited somewhat by the presence of The Love Guru, it feels as though moviegoers will choose Carell over Mike Myers by a fairly wide margin this summer, especially after opening weekend.
11. Tropic Thunder (Aug. 15, DreamWorks/Paramount) -- $125 m ($35 m opening)
Perhaps there is some personal bias here as well, as I think the trailer is far and away the best of any comedy this summer, but I think Tropic Thunder will win the late-Summer comedy battle between it, The Pineapple Express and Step Brothers. Despite opening up against The Clone Wars, I think it has the greatest break-out potential of the three comedies, especially with the lack of direct competition in the last half of August.
12. Sex and the City (May 30, New Line/Warner Bros.) -- $120 m ($42 m opening)
This is another film that isn't likely to be my cup of tea this summer, but regardless of that, I also think it's really being underestimated by some at this point. The post-Memorial Day weekend slot has been very strong the past two years with the launches of The Break-Up and Knocked Up, so I expect more of the same with Sex and the City, especially with the rush-out factor of the pre-established fanbase.
13. You Don't Mess With the Zohan (June 06, Sony) -- $115 m ($35 m opening)
Sandler's summer films the last two years have dropped off a bit from The Longest Yard's performance in 2005, so I think it's a real possibility that could happen once again this year, albeit just slightly from last summer's $119 million gross for Chuck and Larry.
14. The Incredible Hulk (June 13, Universal) -- $110 m ($47 m opening)
Do you get a second chance to make a first impression? While I still think Ang Lee's Hulk is an extremely underrated film, I think the fact that it made 47% of its total domestic gross in its first 3 days pretty much sums up what most people thought of it. Fans of the character will turn out again, but I have a hard time seeing the film breaking out with less frequent moviegoers, especially with opening weekend competition this time around from The Happening.
15. Mamma Mia! (July 18, Warner Bros.) -- $105 m ($22 m opening)
While I don't see it reaching quite the same box office heights as either The Devil Wears Prada or Hairspray, I think Mamma Mia! will more than hold its own. I see it skewing a bit older than both of those films and because of that, its opening against The Dark Knight, and the overall lack of late-summer releases skewing heavily towards women, I think this is a likely candidate to have the summer's best legs.
The rest of the my predicted top 25:
16. Speed Racer (May 09, Warner Bros.) -- $93 m ($35 m opening)
Being sandwiched between Iron Man and Prince Caspian will really hurt, though I still think children and fans of the cartoon and/or the Wachowskis will show up, at least opening weekend.
17. The Happening (June 13, Fox) -- $90 m ($33 m opening)
I think this is more Village than Lady in the Water at the box office, but I just don't see a complete rebound for Shyamalan here, especially given the competition this summer.
18. Star Wars: The Clone Wars (Aug. 15, Warner Bros.) -- $88 m ($30 m opening)
This is the toughest call of the summer for me. I could just as easily see it grossing $60 million as I could $120 million, so this is more of an average prediction at this point.
19. The Pineapple Express (Aug. 08, Sony) -- $85 m ($27 m opening)
I expect Seth Rogen & Judd Apatow to deliver a strong opening here, but I don't see it on the same level as Knocked Up or Superbad, especially with Tropic Thunder in its horizon.
20. The X-Files: I Want to Believe (July 25, Fox) -- $80 m ($33 m opening)
I see a similar gross to the first film, at least when not taking 10 years of ticket-price inflation into account. Should be tremendously front-loaded regardless of quality.
21. Step Brothers (July 25, Sony) -- $75 m ($25 m opening)
This could be a potential sleeper, at least in relation to my prediction, but it feels more like Anchorman than Talladega Nights to me right now.
22. Hellboy II (July 11, Universal) -- $68 m ($27 m opening)
I think it has one of the summer's better trailers, but I can't see it earning THAT much more than the first film given its proximity to both Hancock and The Dark Knight.
23. What Happens in Vegas (May 09, Fox) -- $65 m ($20 m opening)
I think it looks terrible (and that's putting it nicely), but Diaz+Kutcher+Vegas should serve well as an early summer alternative, at least until Sex and the City opens.
24. The Love Guru (June 20, Paramount) -- $60 m ($22 m opening)
I actually thought this sounded like a good idea on paper, then I saw the trailer... If this still surprises somehow, I will gladly admit I was wrong.
25. Journey to the Center of the Earth 3D (July 11, New Line/Warner Bros.) -- $58 m ($20 m opening)
As long as it's playing on enough screens, I think it will outperform Meet Dave that weekend. Then again, I don't think you get an award for that type of thing... But I could be wrong.
