2008 Box Office Predictions & Discussions thread

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Hotly anticipated sequel to a movie that did gangbusters on DVD, and features the last starring role of an actor whose death made headlines worldwide?

If anything, people are underpredicting.

You are acting like it's DVD did Pirates of the Caribbean numbers. I see record number in that actors homeland but here, I don't see Spider-Man, Pirates or Shrek numbers happening. Again if I'm wrong I won't pretend I didn't post this.

 

[Galactus]

Early opening weekend predictions from Box Office Report for releases in May:

May 02, 2008
Iron Man (Paramount) $65.0 m
Made of Honor (Sony) $10.0 m

May 09, 2008
Speed Racer (Warner Bros.) $50.0 m
What Happens in Vegas (Fox) $25.0 m

May 16, 2008
The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (Disney) $100.0 m
The Midnight Meat Train (Lions Gate) $6.0 m

May 22, 2008
Indiana Jones 4 (Paramount) $110.0 m

May 30, 2008
Sex and the City (New Line) $35.0 m
The Strangers (Rogue) $5.0 m

 

[Excel]

Iron Man, Narnia,. and Indy are too high.

Btw...leatherheads looked a breakout but where is its marketing???

 

[Hunter Rider]

^^^ I don't see how that figure for Indy is to high when you are so sure TDK is gonna top a $100M in it's opening weekend, and $65M seems a good bet for Iron Man, it's had great marketing and looks superb, i can see it doing $10M more than FF opening weekend easily.

 

[Jick]

I really can't see Indy doing this much in opening weekend

 

[Galactus]

I really can't see Indy doing this much in opening weekend

People said the same about other movies. And often Box Office Reports predictions for big summer movies have been less than the actual gross. If an X-Men movie can open with over $100 million I think both Indiana Jones and Narnia are capable of doing it. An $100 million opening weekend isn't that sensational anymore, with higher ticket prices and summer movies becoming more and more frontloaded.

 

[Jick]

People said the same about other movies. And often Box Office Reports predictions for big summer movies have been less than the actual gross. If an X-Men movie can open with over $100 million I think both Indiana Jones and Narnia are capable of doing it. An $100 million opening weekend isn't that sensational anymore, with higher ticket prices and summer movies becoming more and more frontloaded.

this is not something fresh anymore.
and take a look at the last Indy movie...it's opening weekend got $29,355,021. and it was the hype of the moment and in all it's glory.
and let us agree...the trailer is nothing spectacular. I was more excited to see this movie before I saw the trailer. it just decreased my expectations. and if they don't make something better...it won't attract the new public, just the old one.
I could see it making 60-65 million in opening weekend.

 

[Galactus]

this is not something fresh anymore.
and take a look at the last Indy movie...it's opening weekend got $29,355,021

You are aware that the last Indy-movie was released in 1989? $29,4 million was a lot more impressive back then. The movie ended with $197,2 million. Adjusted for inflation it means around $337 million. Let's say that the new Indy-movie makes $300 million or more in total, then I think a $100+ million is not out of the question.

And another thing: In '89 Indy opened in just 2327 theaters. The new Indy-movie will probably open in over 4000 theaters, which is common for big summer movies these days.

 

[GhostPoet]

Feel free to quote me as saying Iron Man will do incredibly well. On the level or close to Spider-Man.

 

[WorthyStevens]

1. The Dark Knight, $410 million
2. Indy 4, $350 million
3. Narnia, $275 million
4. Wall-E, $240 million
5. Iron Man, $210 million
6. Hancock, $185 million
7. Wanted, $170 million
8. Hulk, $160 million
9. The Mummy, $155 million
10. Speed Racer, $140 million
11. Step Brothers, $137 million
12. Tropic Thunder, $130 million
13. Get Smart, $125 million
14. The Pineapple Express, $120 million
15. The Happening, $115 million
16. X-Files 2, $110 million
17. Sex and the City, $100 million

 

[Iron_Stark]

No way does Dark Knight make $410 million domestically.

 

[Fanticon]

that whole list is very generous

8. Hulk, $160 million
9. The Mummy, $155 million
15. The Happening, $115 million
16. X-Files 2, $110 million

but these films won't fare so well

 

[Fanticon]

got lazy...not in order
The Dark Knight, $330 million
Indy 4, $305 million
Narnia, $275 million
Wall-E, $240 million
Iron Man, $210 million
Hancock, $155 million
Speed Racer, $140 millionTropic Thunder, $130 million
Wanted, $120 million
Hulk, $95 million
The Mummy3, $85 million
Step Brothers, $85 million
Get Smart, $110 million
The Pineapple Express, $100 million
The Happening, $90 million
X-Files 2, $50 million
Sex and the City, $120 million
HellBoy II, $60 million
Kung Fu Panda, 145 million
You Don't Mess With Zohan, 110 million
The Love Guru, 70 million
What Happens In Vegas, 45 million
Punisher Warzone, 45 million

 

[Excel]

^^^ I don't see how that figure for Indy is to high when you are so sure TDK is gonna top a $100M in it's opening weekend, and $65M seems a good bet for Iron Man, it's had great marketing and looks superb, i can see it doing $10M more than FF opening weekend easily.

Indiana Jones opens on a THURSDAY. Episode 3 couldnt do it, Indiana Jones 4 sure as hell wont. If it was a normal movie and opened on a Friday it would, but it isnt so it wont.

 

[Drizzle]

Early opening weekend predictions from Box Office Report for releases in May:

May 02, 2008
Iron Man (Paramount) $65.0 m

$65M seems a good bet for Iron Man, it's had great marketing and looks superb, i can see it doing $10M more than FF opening weekend easily.

That doesn't sit right with me. I'd bet anything that "Iron Man" makes AT LEAST $80 million during its opening weekend.

 

[Excel]

Called. What you wanna bet???

 

[Jick]

You are aware that the last Indy-movie was released in 1989?

yeah

$29,4 million was a lot more impressive back then.The movie ended with $197,2 million. Adjusted for inflation it means around $337 million. Let's say that the new Indy-movie makes $300 million or more in total,

last time I saw we were talking opening weekend.
I'm aware of the results.

then I think a $100+ million is not out of the question.

like I said, this is not something fresh, anymore. they're bringing an old franchise back. the old public won't fill enough sits to make 100 million in the opening weekend. if they don't give the new public something impressive to look forward to, don't expect the $100M mark.

And another thing: In '89 Indy opened in just 2327 theaters. The new Indy-movie will probably open in over 4000 theaters, which is common for big summer movies these days.

that's why I still say 60-65 million. maybe 70M, and not 30.

 

[Drizzle]

Called. What you wanna bet???

My dignity.

 

[Reek]

dont give up your dignity!

 

[WorthyStevens]

No way does Dark Knight make $410 million domestically.

We'll see. Pirates of the Caribbean did gangbusters on DVD, and it's sequel made $435 million.

 

[DieSmiling]

We'll see. Pirates of the Caribbean did gangbusters on DVD, and it's sequel made $435 million.

No chance The Dark Knight does $400 million. None. It's far from a given it will make $300 million, especially with a late July opening.

 

[WorthyStevens]

It's a mid-July release. Pirates 2 made $400 million, and it also opened in July. Not saying it definitely will.

And just like Pirates 2 was in it's year, Dark Knight is one of the most anticipated movies, if not the most anticipated, of the summer.

 

[Excel]

You are aware that the last Indy-movie was released in 1989? $29,4 million was a lot more impressive back then. The movie ended with $197,2 million. Adjusted for inflation it means around $337 million. Let's say that the new Indy-movie makes $300 million or more in total, then I think a $100+ million is not out of the question.

And another thing: In '89 Indy opened in just 2327 theaters. The new Indy-movie will probably open in over 4000 theaters, which is common for big summer movies these days.

That 29 million was the opening weekend record at the time, only 2 be beaten 3 weeks later by ghostbusters 2 (29.6), who record was destroyed the following week by BATMAN (42 million)

As I said, anything over 105 million is out of the question because it doenst open a Friday; its opening weekend will be very deflated. Itll still def. top 90 and come very c lose if not top 100 million for its opening weekend, ut itll burn off atleast 40 million bucks worth of tickets on thursday.

 

[Iron_Stark]

It's a mid-July release. Pirates 2 made $400 million, and it also opened in July. Not saying it definitely will.

And just like Pirates 2 was in it's year, Dark Knight is one of the most anticipated movies, if not the most anticipated, of the summer.

Batman is no Pirates though, I love Batman and I'm not hating, but there's noway in hell Batman makes Spider-man and Pirates money.

Pirates is a family friendly type movie with pirates, a love story and fantasy villains, Batman is more grounded adult oriented story that has a crazy psycho clown that cuts peoples faces and another dude that gets half his face removed by acid.

 

[Jick]

No chance The Dark Knight does $400 million. None. It's far from a given it will make $300 million, especially with a late July opening.

I think $400 million is hard to get...
but, imo, $300 million is a safe bet.