2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 2

[Bruce Malone]

You make it sound as if Hunger Games would have opened with weaker numbers had it been in 3D...it would have opened with at least 10 to 15 mill more.

I believe the hunger games had a number of imax showings which helped it's box office as much as had it been in 3d imo.

Movies like the hunger games, even the last several cm book films show that 3d really doesn't do that much for the box office right now. Also the costs of converting the hunger games into 3d would have off-set any box office benefits from it.

 

[Tony Stark]

I believe the hunger games had a number of imax showings which helped it's box office as much as had it been in 3d imo.

Movies like the hunger games, even the last several cm book films show that 3d really doesn't do that much for the box office right now. Also the costs of converting the hunger games into 3d would have off-set any box office benefits from it.

I agree, 3D boost for most movies available in both formats is minimal. It obviously makes a difference in films like Avatar or Animated 3D, but it hasn't made a dent in the SH genre.

 

[Infinity9999x]

The origins came from the comics. It's pretty simple actually.

Sure there were alot of influences by Donner, like pulling open the shirt to reveal the spider-man logo.

The origin of Spider-man, and Iron Man, Cap, etc. straight out of the comics.

You're right that Batman '89 didn't follow the exact path (although it was revealed in flashbacks), Batman Begins did follow that formula though.

Yes, the origins came from the comic, but the way they've been presented in films has largely been based off the template Donnor used in his Superman film.

For example within all the heroes first origin story, we don't also see them defeat one of their main adversaries by the end of the first issue. Spider-man does not defeat the Green Goblin in Amazing Fantasy 15, Superman doesn't take down Lex Luthor in Action Comics number 1, ect. ect.

The films have followed specific beats that were established back when SM:TM was released, and that's what people are referring to when they're talking about the "origin story."

 

[DACrowe]

All superhero movies are guilty of that, including Batman. "Boo Hooo my parents died, now I will become a Bat and put fear into others"

You are putting down a film for following the origins of the comics!

So by Osbourne/Stane, I assume you mean Liam Neeson/Ras Al Ghul?

Well yeah. There's a lot of borrowing from Bruce's parents dying (Uncle Ben) or dead mentor imparting knowledge (Jor-El) throughout comics. I mean it is a medium that can be derivative of itself. But the entire story structure of IM1 is clearly modeled after the story structure of movies Favreau admit influenced him with Spider-Man and Batman Begins. I actually think that's one of the many reasons IM2 doesn't work, because they couldn't just model its plot after other movies as easily. I do think that after SM1 for a few years there were A LOT of superhero movies that used that dynamic, including Batman Begins. Since Marvel Studios has branched off into being its own thing and TDK was released, it seems they are trying to get away from it more.

And by Raimi formula you mean the Donner formula. Since SM1's origin hit pretty much the same beats that S:TM did.

I'd agree with that. I think STM created a formula that Raimi, Nolan and Favreau admired. I think Raimi was the first to modernize it for the 21st century and the more recent origin movies are closer to how he lays out the three act structure than the more operatic STM--not to mention the repeatedly used evil father figure motif that we've seen quite a bit since SM1--but STM is certainly the basis of it. It's just when I watch IM1 and a number of other superhero movies I feel like it is uneasily close to SM1. At least STM did things that are generally frowned upon now (slow, but grand prologue and the less-missed bumbling comic relief villains).

The only difference is that Luthor wasn't a mentor. Though I'd argue that in SM1 Norman/Pete didn't have enough screen time together for Norman to ever feel like a father figure to Pete, even though that's clearly what they wanted to have happen. (Which is why I hope that they introduce Norman in TASM2 and have him become Gobby in TASM3).

I thought that the good, but ambitious/prideful man turned evil version of GG (Stan Lee's) was done well enough in SM1. If there is a TASM2, I hope he is more the ruthless bastard he's been in the comics for the last 20 years or so. Completely unlikable and Machiavellian. Given that Oscorp plays a role in Peter's parents' death in that series, I imagine he will be. I also hope he's in TASM2 as GG, because I don't want the series to end on Gwen dying. That's more of an Act Two closer to me.

 

[Infinity9999x]

I thought that the good, but ambitious/prideful man turned evil version of GG (Stan Lee's) was done well enough in SM1. If there is a TASM2, I hope he is more the ruthless bastard he's been in the comics for the last 20 years or so. Completely unlikable and Machiavellian. Given that Oscorp plays a role in Peter's parents' death in that series, I imagine he will be. I also hope he's in TASM2 as GG, because I don't want the series to end on Gwen dying. That's more of an Act Two closer to me.

I wouldn't mind seeing that either actually. I also love TSSM's portray of Norman, which was very much in tune with the more recent incarnation of him. However, I wouldn't mind it if there is a few moments between Norman where he's serving as Pete's mentor so that it's even more of a shock when you realize how truly evil and ruthless this dude is when he goes back.

But I do agree that Gwen dying seems more of a 2nd movie thing to me as well. If I had my druthers I would have introduced Norman as a side character in TASM1 to start building his character so his turn to GG had more impact in TASM2.

And in general I agree with you about the S:TM template. I personally have never been a huge fan of the original Superman movies myself and I thought both SM1 and IM did the origin template better then S:TM did.

 

[DACrowe]

No, I don't think it's a good idea for him to do a musical movie inbetween Avengers movies, far too ambitious if he has not even begun writing one yet. He will most likely have something else on the go though, even if it just writing another movie.

As for the 'dated' part of your comparison of Firefly to Buffy, I think the quality of writing in Buffy is such that it is not at all dated, it is packed with real themes that will always mean something to people. Unlike Firefly, which which was more of a niche sci-fi adventure. It never really had a chance to get started, and I'm not sure if it would have been able to explore as many varied and universal themes as Buffy did, given it's set up.

I agree with Infinity in preferring Firefly. It's probably partially because Firefly never had time to get bad. It was one season. We basically got the overarching plot planned for S2 with Serenity, but we were in the heart of the show. Buffy went downhill at the end. Also, I discovered both after they were over and after one episode of Firefly, I was hooked. I had to be forced to watch Buffy and its '90s-teen turned me off of it at first.

Anyway, I know Joss is doing another Dr. Horrible styled Internet movie, this one based on Shakespeare's Much Ado About Nothing. After that I hope he writes/directs a mainstream movie (like Cabin in the Woods) that would only take a year. TA2 won't be out until at least 2015, so he has time to do something creatively rewarding and help establish his name better before returning to TA2. I doubt he'd do three, but I'm hoping he will do two.

 

[DACrowe]

I wouldn't mind seeing that either actually. I also love TSSM's portray of Norman, which was very much in tune with the more recent incarnation of him. However, I wouldn't mind it if there is a few moments between Norman where he's serving as Pete's mentor so that it's even more of a shock when you realize how truly evil and ruthless this dude is when he goes back.

But I do agree that Gwen dying seems more of a 2nd movie thing to me as well. If I had my druthers I would have introduced Norman as a side character in TASM1 to start building his character so his turn to GG had more impact in TASM2.

And in general I agree with you about the S:TM template. I personally have never been a huge fan of the original Superman movies myself and I thought both SM1 and IM did the origin template better then S:TM did.

I wish MJ and Norman were in TASM as well. I can understand leaving out Harry (that's one thing the Raimi trilogy did very well and would be hard to top). But develop both as side characters and then in TASM2 have Gwen die and MJ prove at the end to be more than shallow and basically have the ending of the comic story. Then Peter and MJ getting together likely at the end of TASM3 wouldn't seem as arbitrary if she is only introduced in that movie.

I actually prefer SM1 and BB over STM, as well. But I know it came from STM. IM1 is fun, but mostly for RDJ and how he bounces off Paltrow and Bridges. The plot feels too retreaded to me.

 

[Tony Stark]

I wish MJ and Norman were in TASM as well. I can understand leaving out Harry (that's one thing the Raimi trilogy did very well and would be hard to top). But develop both as side characters and then in TASM2 have Gwen die and MJ prove at the end to be more than shallow and basically have the ending of the comic story. Then Peter and MJ getting together likely at the end of TASM3 wouldn't seem as arbitrary if she is only introduced in that movie.

I actually prefer SM1 and BB over STM, as well. But I know it came from STM. IM1 is fun, but mostly for RDJ and how he bounces off Paltrow and Bridges. The plot feels too retreaded to me.

The first hour of the movie is straight out of the comics, so I can understand it feeling retreaded in the fact that all SH movies are like this. The last hour is about connecting the dots. Didn't feel anything like SM1 or BB.

Personally I felt it was the best origin style movie because it focused on Tony, everyone else was window dressing. SM1 was cutting away to different characters, dealing with Harry and his dad, etc. Osbourne was a bad guy because he took some formula. Stane was a bad guy because he wanted to make money and because he couldn't stand Tony. Ten Rings assasination plot, etc.

 

[:eek:]

Top 12 worldwide so far:

1. The Hunger Games $578,2 million
2. The Intouchables $328,5 million
3. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island $322,4 million
4. Dr. Seuss' The Lorax $290,9 million
5. Titanic $279,8 million ($2 123 million in total)
6. Wrath of the Titans $279,5 million
7. John Carter $269,7 million
8. Safe House $200,6 million
9. The Vow $181,8 million
10. 21 Jump Street $168,4 million
11. Underworld Awakening $160,1 million
12. Battleship $149,9 million

 

[Marvin]

Titanic added another 300 mill to it's cume.

 

[:eek:]

Boxoffice.com have now a $170 million opening weekend for Avengers (and $400 million in total domestically) and considering how much they, and pretty much anyone else, underestimated The Hunger Games... well, a new opening weekend record wouldn't be much of a surprise at this point.

 

[terry78]

I think all the buzz Avengers is getting overseas will prompt us on this end of the pond to go in droves, fans or not. The curiosity factor has been piqued for those that aren't hardcore Marvel Zombies.

 

[CConn]

Yeah, I definitely think Avengers is already feeling a WOM boost.

I'm actually really impressed by it. I was confident it was going to be good, but I really didn't expect it to be as good as everyone's praising it to be.

 

[Iceman]

I think all the buzz Avengers is getting overseas will prompt us on this end of the pond to go in droves, fans or not. The curiosity factor has been piqued for those that aren't hardcore Marvel Zombies.

Yeah good point. At least something positive could come from the delayed release.

 

[chaseter]

I think I guessed $350 domestic for Avengers. With the fantastic reviews, I do think it has a chance to get right under $400. $400 million domestic is still a bit too much imo.

 

[jmc]

I gotta watch Avengers again.

 

[Raiden]

I think I guessed $350 domestic for Avengers. With the fantastic reviews, I do think it has a chance to get right under $400. $400 million domestic is still a bit too much imo.

If Avengers can get over 150 mil OW I don't think 400 mil domestic is out of reach.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Well the hunger games opened with 150 million and is sitting at 360 million right now. If the avengers can match or do a little better than the hunger games in it's following 2 or 3 weekends near 400 is possible.

 

[Marvin]

Well the hunger games opened with 150 million and is sitting at 360 million right now. If the avengers can match or do a little better than the hunger games in it's following 2 or 3 weekends near 400 is possible.

That also depends on if it faces the type of competition HG faced.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

That also depends on if it faces the type of competition HG faced.

MIB3, apparently, is a film that is getting favorable ratings from advance screenings -- way more than Battleship.

That is surprising. I honestly thought it was going to be complete and utter ****.

 

[DACrowe]

I predicted like $355 million domestic and $750 million WW for TA. Given the crazy WOM, I guess I was wrong. Glad too, because Whedon deserves the success.

 

[Liam_H]

I'm surprised there is no major movie being released on Memorial Day weekend. MIB3 has it all to itself.

 

[DACrowe]

Studios fear Will Smith more than they probably should.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

I'm surprised there is no major movie being released on Memorial Day weekend. MIB3 has it all to itself.

Yep, MIB3 is going to make a killing (assuming it's as good as some say).

 

[Selim844]

Yup, Avengers has a real good chance of breaking the OW record, but I'ma be a bit more conservative and say $163m (TDKR will break it later though). It will also cross 400m, if only barely. I'm saying 400m domestic and 880m worldwide for Avengers.

And Big Willie always delivers. 180m domestic and about 500m worldwide for MIB 3.