2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 2

[amazingfantasy15]

Neither.

I agree, Avengers will have a great opening weekend, most likely in the top 10, but it's not going to hit $200 million, if the final Harry Potter couldn't hit that, The Avengers won't. The Dark Knight Rises doesn't have a chance without that 3D boost.

 

[mclay18]

TDKR is definitely crossing $175 million. It really is going to depend on how many screens multiplexes are willing to show it that weekend and if the demand can fill most of them every showing. But Digital distribution of films has made that a long-shot possibility, I think.

Oh, I definitely think there will be huge demand to see TDKR opening weekend... and most of the digital-equipped theaters can easily load the movie onto all projectors if need be. We did exactly that for HP8 and The Hunger Games, and all the auditoriums were close to being completely full for the midnight show.

There's no question TDKR will crush last year's $169M opening weekend record, and I think it has a shot of getting to $180M. It doesn't have 3D working in its favor, money-wise, but intense demand will make up for it.

 

[rayc1971]

The one thing that might actually hurt TDKR's numbers is its lack of 3D showings. Not at I'd want to see it in 3D, but that would tack 4 dollars onto like half the tickets sold.

yeah i forgot about the 3d aspect spiderman is the only one of the comic book movies i want to see in 3d.avengers and batman dont wow me 3d wise

 

[Marvin]

don't be surprised if Hunger Games takes top 3 day this year

 

[Raiden]

TDKR could, but it's an outside shot. I don't think TA will. TA does have a decent shot at unseating HP8 for the record, though even that I don't feel is guaranteed. TDKR is definitely crossing $175 million. It really is going to depend on how many screens multiplexes are willing to show it that weekend and if the demand can fill most of them every showing. But Digital distribution of films has made that a long-shot possibility, I think.

I think you may be underestimating TA a bit and overestimating TDKR. TDK got the milestone not just because of Ledger, but the character Joker who is the most well-known villain in Batman's rogue gallery, and people were willing to go back and rewatch Joker's charisma and insanity over and over. Even if TDKR is the same quality as TDK, neither Bane nor Catwoman can really match Joker's popularity, and for this reason I don't really believe this sequel will outperform its predecessor drastically, not to mention the lack of 3D will impact its overall earning.

 

[CConn]

I still don't think the Joker factor is that big of a deal.

The property of Batman is big enough as it is.

 

[Bruce Malone]

3D is no longer a big factor in big domestic openings. The hunger games did amazing without it. Also i believe most people skip the 3d showings, i think only like 30% of people saw pirates 4 in 3d.

3d is still big overseas where the novelty hasn't worn off yet but domestically it's a long way from the avatar days.

 

[cherokeesam]

I still don't think the Joker factor is that big of a deal.

The property of Batman is big enough as it is.

Batman is unquestionably DC's biggest character nowadays (and Superman and his fans have never gotten over that), but the disparity in the box office between Begins and TDK prove that Bale isn't the reason people went to see the latter. If anything, Bale has become something of the butt of many jokes, with his laryngitis voice being endlessly parodied, and fanboys still arguing years later about just exactly what level of Stupid is reached or exceeded by the third reel of TDK with Bats inexplicably and voluntarily becoming "the bad guy" for Gotham.

 

[Gianakin_]

BB had lukewarm reaction because it followed B&R and CW. The franchise was all but dead. Word of mouth put BB on the map and TDK used that WOM, along with the Joekr and a couple of insane trailers to propel it to success. Further word of mouth and, of course, raving reviews got butts on the seats. Ledger's death had something to do, too, but nothing too critical.

I'm not one to say big words, predictions on these kind of things really leave me cold. We can have that discussion again in July and August and September.

 

[Thebumwhowalks]

Batman is unquestionably DC's biggest character nowadays (and Superman and his fans have never gotten over that), but the disparity in the box office between Begins and TDK prove that Bale isn't the reason people went to see the latter. If anything, Bale has become something of the butt of many jokes, with his laryngitis voice being endlessly parodied, and fanboys still arguing years later about just exactly what level of Stupid is reached or exceeded by the third reel of TDK with Bats inexplicably and voluntarily becoming "the bad guy" for Gotham.

Dude, Batman has been DC's most popular character since 1989, once a cb company starts making successful movies about a character, their popularity skyrockets, that's why Iron-Man sells as much merchandise as Spider-man nowadays.
That's why Batman Begins did well at the box office, despite the previous Batman movie being an absolute stinker, not to mention the fact that general moviegoers would have felt they had seen all Batman had to offer on the big screen due to the 89-97 series.

Bale's voice in TDK might get the piss taken out of it by fanboys on this site, and you might get the odd parody on some daft comedy show, but his performance as Batman is well respected amongst the general audience. Also, I have absolutely no idea how you think the ending to TDK is considered 'stupid' by people, where exactly has this been said? I have never once in my 4 years on this forum, since the film was released, seen anyone saying that ending with his self sacrifice was stupid.

All in all, it appears you are just making stuff up, and are nowhere near the pulse of the nation when it comes to Batman, apart from the blantantly obvious part about him being DC's most popular character, which is thanks to the movies.

 

[Doctor Jones]

So what are we predicting OW for Avengers now? I'm not saying pre sales being one and half more than all of the Marvel films combined guarantee it a record breaking opening weekend, but it's worth paying attention to.

 

[Thebumwhowalks]

So what are we predicting OW for Avengers now? I'm not saying pre sales being one and half more than all of the Marvel films combined guarantee it a record breaking opening weekend, but it's worth paying attention to.

I have no idea, what's your estimation? since you raised the question.

 

[cherokeesam]

Dude, Batman has been DC's most popular character since 1989, once a cb company starts making successful movies about a character, their popularity skyrockets, that's why Iron-Man sells as much merchandise as Spider-man nowadays.
That's why Batman Begins did well at the box office, despite the previous Batman movie being an absolute stinker, not to mention the fact that general moviegoers would have felt they had seen all Batman had to offer on the big screen due to the 89-97 series.

Bale's voice in TDK might get the piss taken out of it by fanboys on this site, and you might get the odd parody on some daft comedy show, but his performance as Batman is well respected amongst the general audience. Also, I have absolutely no idea how you think the ending to TDK is considered 'stupid' by people, where exactly has this been said? I have never once in my 4 years on this forum, since the film was released, seen anyone saying that ending with his self sacrifice was stupid.

All in all, it appears you are just making stuff up, and are nowhere near the pulse of the nation when it comes to Batman, apart from the blantantly obvious part about him being DC's most popular character, which is thanks to the movies.

You haven't been to the same threads I have, then. I've seen epic flamewars get shut down by mods fought over how the third act falls apart in TDK, over how lame and ridiculous Gordon's soliloquy is, over how Two-Face's character logic and motivation is completely thrown away, over how the whole premise of saving Dent's wrecked reputation makes no sense, over how Batman's misguided actions at the end actually *hurt* Gotham rather than *help* it.

 

[Gianakin_]

But that's on threads. The general public doesn't seem to share this view. I mean, all of this in case someone's trying to make a point that TDK was somehow saved by the Joker and Ledger.

 

[Thebumwhowalks]

You haven't been to the same threads I have, then. I've seen epic flamewars get shut down by mods fought over how the third act falls apart in TDK, over how lame and ridiculous Gordon's soliloquy is, over how Two-Face's character logic and motivation is completely thrown away, over how the whole premise of saving Dent's wrecked reputation makes no sense, over how Batman's misguided actions at the end actually *hurt* Gotham rather than *help* it.

Excuse me, but that is not what you were saying when I responded to you, apart from the end of your sentence, and even then, you are just talking baout on these boards. I was talking about you saying that people in general feel that Batman's self sacrifice was 'stupid'. But, of course, all of these 'epic flamewars' you propose as evidence, have convinently had thier threads shut by mods, and are inaccessible now, lol.

sure, you might get the odd poster here and there saying they felt Batman would ultimately be doing Gotham more harm than good with his self sacrifice, that he was being 'stupid', you are going to get that kind of difference of opinion now and then, but in general, even in the confines of this forum, never mind the 'real world', no, it is not generally held as a belief at all.

 

[Doctor Jones]

I have no idea, what's your estimation? since you raised the question.

It's tracking is as big as TDK so possibly around there or a bit lower. Not really the $130 mil I originally predicted.

 

[craigdbfan]

I believe it's actually tracking larger numbers than both TDK & Iron Man right now.

 

[Doctor Jones]

Tracking is usually accurate no?

 

[craigdbfan]

Usually yeah. Especially Nikki Finke's estimates.

 

[Doctor Jones]

I thought so. It has been so far.

So it's opening much bigger than I thought. Love it. Now we can end all of those stupid, "Since Cap and Thor didn't make as much as Iron Man, the less interest in those characters means it won't make as much" theories.

 

[Thebumwhowalks]

I thought so. It has been so far.

So it's opening much bigger than I thought. Love it. Now we can end all of those stupid, "Since Cap and Thor didn't make as much as Iron Man, the less interest in those characters means it won't make as much" theories.

Honestly, I have not read anyone saying anything like that, from what i have seen, on these boards anyway, everyone has been expecting it to make more money than the Iron-Man films, ie to be the most successful Marvel studios film yet, I mean, that makes the most sense. The movies all made decent money.

 

[craigdbfan]

Doctor Jones is right there were a considerable amount of people going on about how the BO from Thor and CA were testaments to the Avengers not making as much as Iron Man.

That entire notion has dissipated because at this point it's fairly obvious that they couldn't of been more wrong.

 

[Iceman]

I don't know if you guys pay any attention to HSX estimates (or how reliable they are) but they had Avengers at $157m opening weekend last night.

 

[Thebumwhowalks]

Doctor Jones is right there were a considerable amount of people going on about how the BO from Thor and CA were testaments to the Avengers not making as much as Iron Man.

That entire notion has dissipated because at this point it's fairly obvious that they couldn't of been more wrong.

Where were these discussions held? Over in the Avengers section, you would have had a whole pile of posters weighing in on you at once if you had said something like that, they would not have been difficult to notice.
A couple of posters here and there over the past year or so, of course you will get outisde opinions like that, but there has not been talk like that in any general significant way.
I think you are both exagerating. I have only seen one poster saying he thought Avengers would make as much as the Iron-Man films.

 

[Marvin]

3D is no longer a big factor in big domestic openings. The hunger games did amazing without it. Also i believe most people skip the 3d showings, i think only like 30% of people saw pirates 4 in 3d.

3d is still big overseas where the novelty hasn't worn off yet but domestically it's a long way from the avatar days.

You make it sound as if Hunger Games would have opened with weaker numbers had it been in 3D...it would have opened with at least 10 to 15 mill more.