2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 2

[EML420]

I feel bad for TASM the way things seem this summer it might just do Batman Begins numbers. But who knows maybe it will make tons of money and suprise us all.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It's probably going to make a ****load overseas though. I just don't see it performing domestically.

 

[kedrell]

I think it will. Should cross $300M domestic. Maybe not much more than that but it'll be fine. Probably $700M WW.

 

[Doctor Jones]

I think it will make more than BB domestically. SM3 wasn't on B&R levels. I think around $250 million.

It's pretty hilarious Avengers WW updated twice in the same day. First it said $75 million, then it said $178 million. Now it's 180 million.

Wow.

 

[EML420]

The Avengers opening weekend I really want to know how its going to do the May release date has been a real good thing for Marvel and with TA shaping up to be there biggest movie yet.

 

[Ultimatehero]

From what I recall it's got a bad date.

Huntsman has a good date, all it's really up against blockbuster wise is MIBIII and a MONTH later GI Joe. Plus it's out of Avenger's path by release, so in those terms it's well set.

 

[Chewy]

Huntsman has a good date, all it's really up against blockbuster wise is MIBIII and a MONTH later GI Joe. Plus it's out of Avenger's path by release, so in those terms it's well set.

And this little movie called Prometheus

 

[Ultimatehero]

Different demographics. Prometheus is being targeted towards older audiences and those who enjoy thrillers and suspense films. Snow White is being targeted towards all ages and the action fantasy rather than science-fiction crowd. Will there be overlaps? Yes. But they are not the same demographics overall. I should have been more clear by stating action/adventure blockbuster. 'Prometheus' is going to pull in great numbers, but as said - it's a different overall crowd than Snow White. Some overlaps, yes, but overall aimed differently. Also if done correctly, which I think it will be, it'll be too intense for some people. Basically just extraordinarily different in demographics, which I consider a good thing for 'Prometheus' which I see more as a sleeper hit like 'The Sixth Sense' a film for a more limited demographic (thriller) that entertains it's audience consistently allowing it to continue to rake in money throughout the summer.

 

[Marvin]

If Hunger Games and SWATH switched dates, that would be a sight.

Though i thought something else came out around huntsmen, my mistake. I do think between MiB and Aliens 5, Huntsmen's collateral audience will be seemingly picked clean.

 

[Raiden]

I think DS can open to around $50M-ish. Won't be nearly enough for #1 that weekend but I think it can get to $150M if it's good.

I agree. The problem with DS is that we've all seen the Burton/Depp gothic movie before, so this isn't something that is particularly new. I understand that WB wants it to be the counter-programming against TA, but with the kind of reviews that TA is getting, that plan may backfired. I think 150 mil will be the best that it can do, but I can also see it gross less than that.

 

[Ultimatehero]

If Hunger Games and SWATH switched dates, that would be a sight.

Though i thought something else came out around huntsmen, my mistake. I do think between MiB and Aliens 5, Huntsmen's collateral audience will be seemingly picked clean.

As said Prometheus is horror. It's different audiences unless you truly think families and the like will be going to Promeheus? If made right, it'll be way too dark for that. It's like Bond vs. Happy Feet.

MIBIII however is the same demographic. At least where men are concerned. Snow will have the female, but most likely lose part of the male demographic to MIBIII. Key demographic is men 15-28 in the industry. But it will be see what the female demo will and can do since for them at least one poll shows for girls it's their #1.

I'm also beyond curious to see what demo you think Prometheus is targeted at vs Snow. One is wider appeal than the other. While Prometheus is going to end the summer with more money due to consistent box office and winning it's particular demographic over. Also because Prometheus is so narrow it won't have any real competition over the rest of the summer (dark suspence thriller).

My numbers will even surprise people. Snow - 150mil or slightly more like 175. Prometheus 300 mil. Sixth Sense type $$$. It's narrow demographic is what's working in it's favor. Also chicks are usually the horror demographic. The thought provoking nature of it is another thing that'll help it perform like Sixth Sense, again - if made right.

 

[terry78]

They're going to push Prometheus to horror fans, which equates to 13-30-ish, women, considering the leads in Noomi and Theron, and your basic sci-fi fans who will turn out regardless considering how long some have waited for this flick to answer questions they've been theorizing about for decades.

 

[Marvin]

As said Prometheus is horror. It's different audiences unless you truly think families and the like will be going to Promeheus? If made right, it'll be way too dark for that. It's like Bond vs. Happy Feet.

MIBIII however is the same demographic. At least where men are concerned. Snow will have the female, but most likely lose part of the male demographic to MIBIII. Key demographic is men 15-28 in the industry. But it will be see what the female demo will and can do since for them at least one poll shows for girls it's their #1.

I'm also beyond curious to see what demo you think Prometheus is targeted at vs Snow. One is wider appeal than the other. While Prometheus is going to end the summer with more money due to consistent box office and winning it's particular demographic over. Also because Prometheus is so narrow it won't have any real competition over the rest of the summer (dark suspence thriller).

My numbers will even surprise people. Snow - 150mil or slightly more like 175. Prometheus 300 mil. Sixth Sense type $$$. It's narrow demographic is what's working in it's favor. Also chicks are usually the horror demographic. The thought provoking nature of it is another thing that'll help it perform like Sixth Sense, again - if made right.

I personally just can't see the audience(s) climbing into boxes in such a way. My GF want's to see Prometheus because she thinks liked Gladiator and was a fan of Sigourney Weaver. I honestly think it's a much more organic process, deciding to see a movie then simply claiming a demographic and sticking to it. Though I won't deny the impact of such things.

Charlize is in both films correct? Whose to say which factor that plays.

Prometheus has thus far been marketed as A list SciFi more than Horror, the fact that Alien films have been considered horror monsters in the past worth something though this isn't being linked to Aliens whatsoever. It's restricted so there's that. What I was referring to however is the large portion of the audience that would have seen this cool Lord Of the Rings Snow White in it's second week if there was nothing else opening. Alot of teens and adults would have given it a shot(the trailers rock).

As for it's demo, Looking at the cast and sci fi nature I'd say it's similar to Inception being a summer release. With the added boost of the Alien crowd. Again it's Restricted(which is dumb). I'm not sure but I think Women love horror films, the just bring dates along.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Women typically, that is correct, but as shown on that poll pages back and what is really surprising to me is it only came in like forth or third place with women I believe. That's what leads me to thinking sleeper among general audiences. And sci-fi fans are a demographic, but fanboy type ones are actually in the minority in concerns to general audience (majority). If fanboys were the majority the more fan-driven movies would always be breakthrough successes; which that universe? Would f-ing rock so hard!

Demographics do often play a role in movies competing. That's what the studios work off usually when placing. That's also what everyone who works within the industry is told to look for so it can cater more in that direction and get the most money possible.

Unless it's really enforced upon the audience that it's connected to 'Aliens' a majority wouldn't know until after the film is released. As said - strong legs.

Inception is sci-fi, true. But it wasn't intense. Horror movie narrows it. Some people dig horror movies, some stay away from them if it looks too scary. And as said, if this film is good - it'll be too intense for some viewers. I'd also say it being R would help a film like this. A lot of people complain about a lack of R rated horror films. So you have that, a great cast, great director, and everything else? As said - it's going to do great, top five films of the summer (or at least I think so) - I just think it'll be a sprint rather than a dash there -- not front-loaded. And as said, I'm looking and this number will surprise people - at around 300 mil by the end of August if not more. It's legs will and word of mouth will draw in the non-horror crowd like, as I said... this seems to have that real 'Sixth Sense' vibe working for it which is actually a very strong thing to have. It'll take time to get there, but in terms of genre it's standing alone which is great.

 

[Marvin]

I think this and Spidey are the dark horses this summer. Both could do well but there is absolutely nothing stopping them from walking the First Class path. Or even the apes path.

 

[Ultimatehero]

True. But, I still don't think Prometheus will be front-loaded, it'd be more one we'll know how it did by summer's end. As said horror is one demographic and a very narrow one. Inception was sci-fi, but not horror. Sixth Sense was horror and drew in the non-horror crowd over time from word-of-mouth which would be what Prometheus, if successful, would repeat. Which, personally hoping for because it'd be easier to sell smart horror then.

 

[Marvin]

The best sell these days(outside of the Cameron zeitgeist) is the after the fact "you gotta see the ..." water cooler talk device.

6th sense had it, Inception had it, and Prometheus may very well have it. What apes had was the "you gotta see the quality to this thing" device, and I'm sure Prometheus will have that.

 

[DACrowe]

So, I was watching TDKR trailer and for me it's truly epic. It looks like a great film that is barely even of the superhero genre. I could gush and gush about it (which sadly has made my excitement for TA this weekend almost vanish), but I was thinking....

Could this movie be too dark or rather too somber and meditative for a good swath of the mainstream audience? At this point it is impossible to tell whether it will be actually better than TDK, however the trailer seems to indicate that it will most definitely be darker. TDK was a very serious superhero movie, but it also had moments of levity and summer blockbuster goofy joy (the entire car chase in the middle of the movie that ends with a truck flip and Batman flipping his motorcycle or pretty much all of the Joker's scenes). TDKR looks much more like an opus. Bane is clearly not going to be as fun as Joker (nor should he be) and the tone is almost nihilistic.

This won't effect OW, but I honestly think it could turn off some people if it's as morose as the latest trailer. That could be the factor to keep it from crossing $500 million domestic like TDK or being as beloved. Just a hunch I have.

 

[terry78]

They're counting on Catwoman to kind of take that mantle this time around regarding any fun in the flick.

 

[Boom]

My "no guts, no glory" prediction: The Avengers makes the most money this summer.

 

[rayc1971]

I feel bad for TASM the way things seem this summer it might just do Batman Begins numbers. But who knows maybe it will make tons of money and suprise us all.

i agree i think it will only do about 250 mill domestic its budget is 220 mill.it will probably pull 400 to 450 os for a ww 0f around 700mill.that will be okay and i think the sequel is when it will make a lot of coin domestically.

 

[Iceman]

So, I was watching TDKR trailer and for me it's truly epic. It looks like a great film that is barely even of the superhero genre. I could gush and gush about it (which sadly has made my excitement for TA this weekend almost vanish), but I was thinking....

Could this movie be too dark or rather too somber and meditative for a good swath of the mainstream audience? At this point it is impossible to tell whether it will be actually better than TDK, however the trailer seems to indicate that it will most definitely be darker. TDK was a very serious superhero movie, but it also had moments of levity and summer blockbuster goofy joy (the entire car chase in the middle of the movie that ends with a truck flip and Batman flipping his motorcycle or pretty much all of the Joker's scenes). TDKR looks much more like an opus. Bane is clearly not going to be as fun as Joker (nor should he be) and the tone is almost nihilistic.

This won't effect OW, but I honestly think it could turn off some people if it's as morose as the latest trailer. That could be the factor to keep it from crossing $500 million domestic like TDK or being as beloved. Just a hunch I have.

I think it'll still get to $1BN with expanded overseas figures despite being darker. Everyone is going to want to see it at least once whatever they hear about it. The kind of people who are potentially going to watch TDKR more than once are probably more receptive to the darker style anyway so shouldn't be affected.

 

[chaseter]

I don't think TDKR will cross 500 domestic anyways. TDK was a perfect storm.

 

[Iceman]

I don't think TDKR will cross 500 domestic anyways. TDK was a perfect storm.

$450m would be a good target.

 

[Marvin]

I wonder if people even see the Batman stuff as Superhero material any longer. It may just come off as a crime thriller meets james bond tech(complete with a black Q). It's a good thing Marvel is around to serve up an alternative take.

I've honestly always championed this approach. The first Xmen had it, the first blade had it. Just a genre film that happened to have superhero's in it. Not that the alternative when done well is any less entertaining.

Green Lantern aside, it would be pretty neat if DC took this approach in the coming battle with the now solidified Marvel Studios. Let's see where Superman goes. If watchmen and bats are any indication I'd say things should get interesting.