2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 2

[Marvin]

So what? (I was trying to agree with you) If I make a film about a super-powered goat for no reason that noone watches, it would have existed without needing the likes of X-Men & Spider-man to come to fruition. A film merely existing without relying on outside inspiration isn't the positive here. It's what it inspires and makes possible. Otherwise are you only going to give credit to people's ancestors for their own feats of success that inspire others?

Edit: It was terry I was agreeing with.

Who said anything about inspiring anything...

Blade was Marvel's first successful new age endeavor(unless I'm mistaken). Avi Arad was a joke before that(unless I'm mistaken). Everything that blade was and represented(solid film first comic book adaptation) came about in spite of of the camp that came before and was contingent on it's own success. Without that success anything Marvel made after the fact may not have occurred, and that's ignoring it's financial success. Enabling Marvel/Arad to move forward. Without Blade, would fox have green lit a non camp Xmen...who's to say? and that's the point! What did blade need to be green lit in the manner at which it was?

Who said anything about inspiring?

 

[Iceman]

I mentioned it before, but the speed at which international numbers grow is hard to compare with each new release on account of the fact that almost no two films open in the same amount of markets at the same rate. Sometimes films do china early in their wide release. Some films aren't allowed to open in China at all...etc. Of course this happens within North American releases when one looks at the amount of screens a film is shown, but that's very easy for me to accept.

Not talking anything away from any release but it's just hard to really get a handle on. Still, Avengers making surpassing Iron man numbers at any rate is great news.

It makes comparison a lot less straightforward than for two US releases for sure.

 

[Iceman]

Who said anything about inspiring anything...

Blade was Marvel's first successful new age endeavor(unless I'm mistaken). Avi Arad was a joke before that(unless I'm mistaken). Everything that blade was and represented(solid film first comic book adaptation) came about in spite of of the camp that came before and was contingent on it's own success. Without that success anything Marvel made after the fact may not have occurred, and that's ignoring it's financial success. Enabling Marvel/Arad to move forward. Without Blade, would fox have green lit a non camp Xmen...who's to say? and that's the point! What did blade need to be green lit in the manner at which it was?

Who said anything about inspiring?

Even in this post it sounds like you're talking about how these films were inspired by the artistic direction of Blade which was in stark contrast to the discredited Schumacher style. This influenced X-Men to be made into a more serious, conservative (eg outfits) film than one would expect. But the box office and critical success of X-Men made Spider-man possible which in turn made the whole industry a major point of interest for Hollywood.

I've not downplayed the importance of Blade at any stage. I'm just also giving credit to the other films that I think have made things possible for the comic book film industry. Blade started it, if it hadn't something else would have eventually, and you don't go from Blade to Avengers without the likes of Spider-man & Iron Man.

 

[The Shape]

This is really drifting away from the BO discussion we were having...

 

[Iceman]

This is really drifting away from the BO discussion we were having...

Mighty Money!!! THE AVENGERS swooped up $42.3M yesterday. Total is now $260.5M!!!

Source: Exhibitor Relations (can't link at moment)

Edit: Deadline have the story up http://www.deadline.com/2012/05/ave...sunday-with-u-s-canada-russia-china-openings/

 

[Bim]

Mighty Money!!! THE AVENGERS swooped up $42.3M yesterday. Total is now $260.5M!!!

Source: Exhibitor Relations (can't link at moment)

Edit: Deadline have the story up http://www.deadline.com/2012/05/ave...sunday-with-u-s-canada-russia-china-openings/

Wow

 

[rayc1971]

the avengers will make a billion ww

 

[Marvin]

Even in this post it sounds like you're talking about how these films were inspired by the artistic direction of Blade which was in stark contrast to the discredited Schumacher style. This influenced X-Men to be made into a more serious, conservative (eg outfits) film than one would expect. But the box office and critical success of X-Men made Spider-man possible which in turn made the whole industry a major point of interest for Hollywood.

I see how it could have sounded that way, but it's very much about how it not only proved a certain mentality could be profitable but also allowed marvel to move forward with whatever they wanted to at that point, they had clout and interest going forward.

I've not downplayed the importance of Blade at any stage. I'm just also giving credit to the other films that I think have made things possible for the comic book film industry. Blade started it, if it hadn't something else would have eventually, and you don't go from Blade to Avengers without the likes of Spider-man & Iron Man.

The point really was that Blade, for the most part is often downplayed. If it wasn't blade then you're right, it may very well have been another film. Evidently enough it was blade, not enough people acknowledge that. Earlier there was the discussion about batman not really looking like the "comic book film" to the GA. I'd say the same about blade when it came to advertising. This form of disguising these properties in familiar genre to entice the mass that isn't as inclined to buy into "superheroes." I'd say blades success at doing that perhaps inspired some of these later films. Especially one one looks at who wrote that particular film and who wrote the newest bats.

Anyways, speaking of Arad, Feige seems to be doing the job he never could. I wonder what he thinks of all this Marvel success.

Also, I don't see Avengers beating potter this weekend. It will flirt with TDK though.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

It will flirt with TDK though.

It'll take TDK to bed and ravage it, and then flirt with Potter and might be turned down.

 

[Iceman]

the avengers will make a billion ww

Yes, when is the question now. t:

I see how it could have sounded that way, but it's very much about how it not only proved a certain mentality could be profitable but also allowed marvel to move forward with whatever they wanted to at that point, they had clout and interest going forward.



The point really was that Blade, for the most part is often downplayed. If it wasn't blade then you're right, it may very well have been another film. Evidently enough it was blade, not enough people acknowledge that. Earlier there was the discussion about batman not really looking like the "comic book film" to the GA. I'd say the same about blade when it came to advertising. This form of disguising these properties in familiar genre to entice the mass that isn't as inclined to buy into "superheroes." I'd say blades success at doing that perhaps inspired some of these later films. Especially one one looks at who wrote that particular film and who wrote the newest bats.

Anyways, speaking of Arad, Feige seems to be doing the job he never could. I wonder what he thinks of all this Marvel success.

Also, I don't see Avengers beating potter this weekend. It will flirt with TDK though.

Agreed on all the above. I hope Arad is envious and bitter. t:

It'll take TDK to bed and ravage it, and then flirt with Potter and might be turned down.

Haha, couldn't have put it better myself.

 

[Marvin]

If TA does bed TDK, there will be a storm coming of sorts(nolanites loss of power).
And I suppose TDKR will be all the more appropriate as summer comes to a close.

 

[amazingfantasy15]

Even in this post it sounds like you're talking about how these films were inspired by the artistic direction of Blade which was in stark contrast to the discredited Schumacher style. This influenced X-Men to be made into a more serious, conservative (eg outfits) film than one would expect. But the box office and critical success of X-Men made Spider-man possible which in turn made the whole industry a major point of interest for Hollywood.

I've not downplayed the importance of Blade at any stage. I'm just also giving credit to the other films that I think have made things possible for the comic book film industry. Blade started it, if it hadn't something else would have eventually, and you don't go from Blade to Avengers without the likes of Spider-man & Iron Man.

While Spider-man may have been a very different movie if it didn't come out after X-Men, liscensing is what kept Spider-man out of the theaters for so long. Studios wanted to make a Spider-man movie for a long time, it was just wrapped up in legal hell.

 

[DACrowe]

Who said anything about inspiring anything...

Blade was Marvel's first successful new age endeavor(unless I'm mistaken). Avi Arad was a joke before that(unless I'm mistaken). Everything that blade was and represented(solid film first comic book adaptation) came about in spite of of the camp that came before and was contingent on it's own success. Without that success anything Marvel made after the fact may not have occurred, and that's ignoring it's financial success. Enabling Marvel/Arad to move forward. Without Blade, would fox have green lit a non camp Xmen...who's to say? and that's the point! What did blade need to be green lit in the manner at which it was?

Who said anything about inspiring?

I was always under the impression that X-Men was well into pre-production when Blade was released. Same with Spider-Man before X-Men was released. I don't think either of their failing would have prevented Spider-Man which is the movie that made all of Hollywood's collective ears perk up at the notion of superhero movies when done with just a little respect (or in Fox's case after X2, the illusion of it) could mean huge returns. I feel like Blade legitimized the concept of there being a way to making "serious" superhero movies that were profitable, X-Men kind of found the door to that and then Spider-Man kicked it wide open.

 

[Ultimatehero]

I feel like Blade legitimized the concept of there being a way to making "serious" superhero movies that were profitable, X-Men kind of found the door to that and then Spider-Man kicked it wide open.

/\ This, agreed.

ALSO, keep in mind that I may be wrong, sony acquiring Spider-Man may have inspired fox to attain The X-Men. I read somewhere, but I may be confused that Spider-Man was in pre-production and acquired before The X-Men and The X-Men just happened to come out first. I might be wrong with this, but just something I thought I heard before.

 

[Bruce Malone]

TDKR has the easier competition than the avengers coming in july. TDK was able to hold 4 weekends at number 1.

If you're talking really big money you need a big opening AND longevity tdk had both. However films like twillight only have the the former.

 

[terry78]

Batman is basically closing out the summer season, along with Neighborhood Watch I think. So it may very well have some legs unless something massive opens up early in August.

 

[Iceman]

While Spider-man may have been a very different movie if it didn't come out after X-Men, liscensing is what kept Spider-man out of the theaters for so long. Studios wanted to make a Spider-man movie for a long time, it was just wrapped up in legal hell.

Yeah I know lol. I kept repeating the Blade X-Men Spider-man thing till eventually I ballsed up the wording of it haha. I wish it had happened differently and another property had taken X-men's sacrificial lamb position with the nervous late budget cuts and the ultra safe direction which was almost necessary. Then X-Men could have been much later in the cycle after big budgets were commonplace. I'm sure X-Men could have been as big as Avengers if it was released in 2012 for the 1st time but I can't see it reaching those heights for 10-15 years now as 5 films have come out and the public have it pegged at a certain level.

 

[Iceman]

Theater counts are out. 4349 locations is enough for a big old weekend

http://www.deadline.com/2012/05/ave...sunday-with-u-s-canada-russia-china-openings/

UPDATE: Disney is setting its theater count for Friday’s North American opening of Marvel’s The Avengers: 4,349 locations, including 3,364 3D plays. Expect huge lines to snake around those U.S. movie theaters able to schedule midnight screenings. Some locations are now arranging to play The Avengers continuously during this opening 3-day weekend. Right now theater owners are adding post-midnight screens every minute. Though extremely big, this isn’t the all-time list of widest openings at the box office. It’s #8. (No. 1 is June 2010′s The Twilight Saga: Eclipse which released into 4,468 theaters.) The Avengers will be released in 275 theatres beginning May 4th, or more than half of the IMAX 3D format in 451 digital theatres worldwide. More IMAX territories are launching in tandem with the North American release this week, including China. Meanwhile, Fandango reports a surge in advance ticket sales for The Avengers which is scooping up 94% of today’s pre-sales. Marvel’s superhero ensemble is currently outpacing last summer’s blockbuster Transformers 3: Dark Of The Moon at the same point in that film’s sales cycle. Domestic IMAX pre-sales are also strong and significantly ahead of any previous Marvel releases.

 

[:eek:]

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3433&p=.htm

 

[Iceman]

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3433&p=.htm

TDK 500m
Avengers 420m
TASM 300m
Brave 260m
MiB3 175m
Bourne 160m
GI Joe 155m
Prometheus 145

I wouldn't disagree wildly with any of those. My own predictions are within 20% of them all (I guess that's not actually that close lol). TDKR & TASM will have to fight all the way to reach those kind of figures although they aren't outside the realm of possibility. It's got to be absolute best case for Spidey. I think Avengers will run TDKR closer also. I'm surprised there's no big non comic film this summer (not counting Brave).

They've also got Snow White & TH down at 110m. Hope it can do better than that. I'm only really fully supporting Prometheus and the comic films from the list above.

 

[Liam_H]

I don't see ASM making that much at this point.

 

[rayc1971]

TDK 500m
Avengers 420m
TASM 300m
Brave 260m
MiB3 175m
Bourne 160m
GI Joe 155m
Prometheus 145

I wouldn't disagree wildly with any of those. My own predictions are within 20% of them all (I guess that's not actually that close lol). TDKR & TASM will have to fight all the way to reach those kind of figures although they aren't outside the realm of possibility. It's got to be absolute best case for Spidey. I think Avengers will run TDKR closer also. I'm surprised there's no big non comic film this summer (not counting Brave).

They've also got Snow White & TH down at 110m. Hope it can do better than that. I'm only really fully supporting Prometheus and the comic films from the list above.

batman 400-not gonna hit 500mill avengers 375mill-spidey between 250 and 300mill ala batman begins bourne is too high 125 to 130mill- mib3 190mill-prometheus 200mill-gi joe about right-snow white and th 160 sleeper hit.

 

[Marvin]

TDKR has the easier competition than the avengers coming in july. TDK was able to hold 4 weekends at number 1.

If you're talking really big money you need a big opening AND longevity tdk had both. However films like twillight only have the the former.

I'm not so sure TDKR has an easier competition than Avengers this year. All in all I'd say they probably face the same amount.

Theater counts are out. 4349 locations is enough for a big old weekend

http://www.deadline.com/2012/05/ave...sunday-with-u-s-canada-russia-china-openings/

UPDATE: Disney is setting its theater count for Friday’s North American opening of Marvel’s The Avengers: 4,349 locations, including 3,364 3D plays. Expect huge lines to snake around those U.S. movie theaters able to schedule midnight screenings. Some locations are now arranging to play The Avengers continuously during this opening 3-day weekend. Right now theater owners are adding post-midnight screens every minute. Though extremely big, this isn’t the all-time list of widest openings at the box office. It’s #8. (No. 1 is June 2010′s The Twilight Saga: Eclipse which released into 4,468 theaters.) The Avengers will be released in 275 theatres beginning May 4th, or more than half of the IMAX 3D format in 451 digital theatres worldwide. More IMAX territories are launching in tandem with the North American release this week, including China. Meanwhile, Fandango reports a surge in advance ticket sales for The Avengers which is scooping up 94% of today’s pre-sales. Marvel’s superhero ensemble is currently outpacing last summer’s blockbuster Transformers 3: Dark Of The Moon at the same point in that film’s sales cycle. Domestic IMAX pre-sales are also strong and significantly ahead of any previous Marvel releases.

It really is turning into a number of screens game in these recent years. I still remember when Spiderman opened on 3,615 screens and hit 114mill. In a few years when that screen number is literally doubled I'm sure we'll see opening weekends all but double as well.
Hard to compare TF3 and Avengers sales at this point. There release schedules seem very different. If anything Iron Man2 would be the best comparison to get a good measure on the scale of numbers.

 

[Bruce Malone]

The avengers has dark shadows w johnny depp coming up the following week, it has battle ship coming up the week after that and finally to end off may it has MIB3.

I'd say conclusively the avengers will face more competition than tdkr has opening on july 20th.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

I honestly believe The Avengers is going to rake in 157-160 million OW, but TDKR will likely make 165-170 million OW.

I'm still not certain on whether or not TDKR will cross the billion dollar mark but if the rumors are true regarding TDKR topping TDK in every way, then I predict TDKR grossing 1.3 to 1.5 billion WW.