2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 2

[Boom]

Just so I've got this straight...

BoxOfficeMojo is predicting $500 million domestic for TDKR, and $850 overseas? That'd bring in a total of $1,350,000,000 - making it the third highest grossing movie of all time.

I just don't see that happening.

 

[Liam_H]

He's predicting it'll be HP7.2 this year and I just don't see that happening.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Yeah, 850 million OS is way too out there. 550 million is a possibility but I'm predicting 475 million OS and 450 million DM (with a 165-170 million OW).

 

[Boom]

He's predicting it'll be HP7.2 this year and I just don't see that happening.

Same.

I think they're setting their expectations way too high. But then again, Transformers: Dark of the Moon is the 4th highest grossing film of all time, so anything is possible I guess.

 

[Liam_H]

People overseas love their alien invasion/Earth being destroyed movies along with 3D.

 

[Bruce Malone]

At this point i think people should learn not to bet against nolan. Few people expected tdk to gross a billion fewer saw inception grossing over 800 million.

Looking at those higher end predictions i'm not totally betting against them.

TDK was the superhero film for people who love superheroes and for those who can care less. I've talked to several people who can care less about comics and have still seen and enjoyed tdk. It hits all the demo marks kids will see it cuz it's batman, super hero fans will see it for batman/nolan and everyone else in the general public will see it due to the hype and christopher nolan's resume.

I'm persoanlly exicited for the avengers but i've heard a few non comic fans scoff at it. Nolan films do not run into that problem.

 

[Boom]

My guess is that TDKR ends its theatrical run with a worldwide total of $850 million - a respectable number that would ensure the future of the Batman franchise.

 

[Bruce Malone]

My guess is that TDKR ends its theatrical run with a worldwide total of $850 million - a respectable number that would ensure the future of the Batman franchise.

I've explained my beliefs in the above post but if you really think tdkr will only make 25 million more than inception you are waaay off.

 

[Liam_H]

Yea but that $850 million to me for international numbers just seems so staggering to me.

 

[Boom]

I've explained my beliefs in the above post but if you really think tdkr will only make 25 million more than inception you are waaay off.

We'll just have to wait and see.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

I've explained my beliefs in the above post but if you really think tdkr will only make 25 million more than inception you are waaay off.

Time will tell but 925 million is pushing it, right now. If Batmania/Batfever is at an all-time high and the film tops TDK, then yeah, maybe the film make over a billion but it's too early to tell.

800-900 million is the more reasonable route.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Yea but that $850 million to me for international numbers just seems so staggering to me.

850 international may be pushing it. I see low 700's a possibility again t3 made 771 internationally. People don't realize how much the international box office has taken off since tdk came out. It's getting a china release this time i believe and the hype will be that much more.

Look at the international numbers for spider-man 2 to 3, despite 3 being terrible. Superhero films take time to grow over seas.

 

[Liam_H]

TDKR does not have 3D on its side which is a bigger factor overseas.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Time will tell but 925 million is pushing it, right now. If Batmania/Batfever is at an all-time high and the film tops TDK, then yeah, maybe the film make over a billion but it's too early to tell.

800-900 million is the more reasonable route.

I'm sorry i think you're wrong. It is not the more reasonable estimate. Box office mojo is not the only source predicting an above 1 billion gross for tdkr. Fewer people are predicting tdkr to make less than they are more.

I was actually a low baller avengers predictor for the avengers myself i think if any two movies are going to go beyond expectations this year it is the avengers and tdkr.

We'll just have to wait and see.

Well that's a cop out answer. This thread if for semi-factual predictions. We might as well lock the thread and put wait and see as the only post.

 

[Bruce Malone]

TDKR does not have 3D on its side which is a bigger factor overseas.

True but 3d is waning in other countries outside of north america. Regardless tdk grossed a billion but only 468 million worldwide. There is no doubt in my mind that gross will increase a great deal. Even if it doesn't reach 500 million domestic its overseas growth will be enough to push it over a billion worldwide.

 

[Boom]

Well that's a cop out answer. This thread if for semi-factual predictions. We might as well lock the thread and put wait and see as the only post.

There's nothing cop-out about it. I gave my prediction. You gave yours. We're clearly in disagreement over a theoretical scenario. I can't prove or disprove anything at this point in time, so to try and convince you of my stance is pretty much a waste of time.

You can post as much semi-factual information as you want, but it's ultimately a crap shoot at the end of the day. Using your own example, nobody predicted Inception would perform as well as it did. No semi-factual information made $825 million a safe (almost guaranteed) bet for that film. And yet here we are.

 

[Bruce Malone]

There's nothing cop-out about it. I gave my prediction. You gave yours. We clearly in disagreement.

You can post as much semi-factual information as you want, but it's ultimately a crap shoot. As you said, nobody predicted Inception would perform as well as it did. No semi-factual information made $825 million a safe (almost guaranteed) bet.

Yes but were at the point where we can extrapolate from past performances. Nolan's box office average from his last two films is near a billion and the hype for this movie is much close to the 1 billion dollar grosser tdk than 825 million inception.

Like i said earlier if anything based on the past predictions for nolan they tend to come out under the expected box office result not over. I just don't see any real arguments for why this films would not gross at least a billion. Again if it's all a random crap shoot there is no point in this thread. I'm just using data here.

 

[Boom]

Yes but were at the point where we can extrapolate from past performances. Nolan's box office average from his last two films is near a billion and the hype for this movie is much close to the 1 billion dollar grosser tdk than 825 million inception.

Like i said earlier if anything based on the past predictions for nolan they tend to come out under the expected box office result not over. I just don't see any real arguments for why this films would not gross at least a billion. Again if it's all a random crap shoot there is no point in this thread. I'm just using data here.

I'm not denying the success of Nolan's last two films. It would be foolish of me to do so.

The reason why I temper my expectations is because this isn't The Dark Knight or Inception. It's its own film, and there are too many unknown variables for me to justify predicting over a billion dollars at this point in time.

How good is the film?
Does it live up to Nolan's last two cinematic ventures?
What's the word-of-mouth going to be like?
Will the lack of The Joker have any notable impact on the general audience's interest level?
Will people be turned off by what I can only assume is going to be a very solemn film?

That's why these threads are for fun, more than anything. It's impossible to realistically predict a film's box office months in advance when A) We don't know how good or bad the film is, and B) We don't know how it will resonate with audiences.

 

[Octoberist]

How much money will that Brandon Routh lacrosse movie make?

 

[Marvin]

The avengers has dark shadows w johnny depp coming up the following week, it has battle ship coming up the week after that and finally to end off may it has MIB3.

I'd say conclusively the avengers will face more competition than tdkr has opening on july 20th.

I think it's close. Avengers opens almost literally with nothing out(it's been a very weak april and even march for that matter) with only THG and it's fast diminishing numbers. So it only faces a hungry audience and I'm not sure what the buzz is for DS but battleship so far looks to be an under performer. If Avengers doesn't hold top spot against these two that would be bad news for marvel I think. Then 3 whole weeks later it's "MiB" looking to be in strong form, but it's also memorial weekend. I compared this May to the May of 2007 earlier...

Batman not only has to deal with a much more stacked summer than it did in 2008, it will be coming in two weeks after spidey(very different from what Avengers is coming in facing, this bo dude things it's going for 300mill?) and a week after the always consistent Ice age. TDKR or rather Batman may have young fans in spite of Nolan's wishes but unlike Avengers(which seems more kid friendly) it has to deal with this kids being drawn to Ice Age just a week prior, again very different from Avengers.

Moreover unlike in 2008, TDKR has post release competition(in a similar genre to boot) to deal with. Now I'm not saying that either (Mat Damonless)Bourne or (Arnoldless)Recall will be a show stopper, but together on the same day(just two weeks after bats, is equivalent to combining both of their figures together. For example, what if both Dark Shadows and "Mib" opened up two weeks after avengers? It would be a combined figure enough to knock if off the top.

Lastly the late summer release is a blessing and a curse, sure there is less competion, but supposedly people actually take vacations during that time, it might not have affect TDK but then again maybe it did.

In conclusion, I do not agree that TDKR has faces less competition than Avengers this year, it's just different.

 

[Marvin]

True but 3d is waning in other countries outside of north america. Regardless tdk grossed a billion but only 468 million worldwide. There is no doubt in my mind that gross will increase a great deal. Even if it doesn't reach 500 million domestic its overseas growth will be enough to push it over a billion worldwide.

This is a great point. And something worth considering. However, it all adds credence that idea that Batman isn't really an international performer. That being said, one look at TF's performance overseas over the years has increased would lend to the idea that Batman will too. Especially given inceptions numbers.

Plus this time Nolan doesn't dance around China's corrupt foreign legal policies as a major plot point.

I'm still of the mind that TDKR will fall short of TDK. Especially when viewing the trailers back to back.I'm also of the mind that Spiderman is the major dark horse this year...

 

[Bruce Malone]

I'm not denying the success of Nolan's last two films. It would be foolish of me to do so.

The reason why I temper my expectations is because this isn't The Dark Knight or Inception. It's its own film, and there are too many unknown variables for me to justify predicting over a billion dollars at this point in time.

How good is the film?
Does it live up to Nolan's last two cinematic ventures?
What's the word-of-mouth going to be like?
Will the lack of The Joker have any notable impact on the general audience's interest level?
Will people be turned off by what I can only assume is going to be a very solemn film?

That's why these threads are for fun, more than anything. It's impossible to realistically predict a film's box office months in advance when A) We don't know how good or bad the film is, and B) We don't know how it will resonate with audiences.

Yes it is fun and that's exactly what i'm doing my figures are not gospel. At the same it isn't impossible to come up with predictions at this point. Hell there are people being paid out there right now to do so.

I feel at this point it is safe to hover a figure of around a billion this based on all i've said before and other predictions out there. How close or far from that number will yes come down to the factors you've mentioned.

I'm just saying to predict a movie making a billion now is not as it was even right before tdk came out. For a movie like tdkr rise i feel it's a safe bet.

I think it's close. Avengers opens almost literally with nothing out(it's been a very weak april and even march for that matter) with only THG and it's fast diminishing numbers. So it only faces a hungry audience and I'm not sure what the buzz is for DS but battleship so far looks to be an under performer. If Avengers doesn't hold top spot against these two that would be bad news for marvel I think. Then 3 whole weeks later it's "MiB" looking to be in strong form, but it's also memorial weekend. I compared this May to the May of 2007 earlier...

Batman not only has to deal with a much more stacked summer than it did in 2008, it will be coming in two weeks after spidey(very different from what Avengers is coming in facing, this bo dude things it's going for 300mill?) and a week after the always consistent Ice age. TDKR or rather Batman may have young fans in spite of Nolan's wishes but unlike Avengers(which seems more kid friendly) it has to deal with this kids being drawn to Ice Age just a week prior, again very different from Avengers.

Moreover unlike in 2008, TDKR has post release competition(in a similar genre to boot) to deal with. Now I'm not saying that either (Mat Damonless)Bourne or (Arnoldless)Recall will be a show stopper, but together on the same day(just two weeks after bats, is equivalent to combining both of their figures together. For example, what if both Dark Shadows and "Mib" opened up two weeks after avengers? It would be a combined figure enough to knock if off the top.

Lastly the late summer release is a blessing and a curse, sure there is less competion, but supposedly people actually take vacations during that time, it might not have affect TDK but then again maybe it did.

In conclusion, I do not agree that TDKR has faces less competition than Avengers this year, it's just different.

Regardless TDKR has no "blockbusters" it will directly have to fight. MIB 3 and to a lesser extant battleship are positioned as blockbusters. Maybe dark shadows as well depp is huge internationally.

Spider-man by its 3rd week will not be competition when tdkr rises grooses 150 milllion to it's maybe 30 million at that point. Bourne without bourne and total recall and wild cards and the fact they are bing released in augus shows to me they are not expected to go wild on the box office.

Ice age has its own demo, literally no one but young kids overseas see those movies any more.

 

[Boom]

I honestly have no clue what to expect for Dark Shadows. Every time I've seen the trailer in theaters, the audience gives me nothing to worth with as far as gaging interest level.

 

[Marvin]

Regardless TDKR has no "blockbusters" it will directly have to fight. MIB 3 and to a lesser extant battleship are positioned as blockbusters. Maybe dark shadows as well depp is huge internationally.

Spider-man by its 3rd week will not be competition when tdkr rises grooses 150 milllion to it's maybe 30 million at that point. Bourne without bourne and total recall and wild cards and the fact they are bing released in augus shows to me they are not expected to go wild on the box office.

Ice age has its own demo, literally no one but young kids overseas see those movies any more.

A different demo is what executives say to keep their jobs. If Toy Story opened the same weekend as say TDK there would be a huge clash no matter what the demo's say. Batman derives a portion of it's audience from kids, the only reason there is an animated series on the air(consistently) is because of children's merchandising. As "dark" as burtons batman got, there were still kids in the line up. And the same goes for this property. Kids that, on any other day would be up for watching a Fox animated picture might want to watch the new superhero movie starring the most popular superhero currently. Ice Age(if it performs well) will affect TDK's numbers.

Bourne and Recall opening up two weeks after TDKR(especially in a month where blockbusters are far and in between) is at least as equivalent as this somewhat still Relevant MIB opening 3 weeks after avengers. Dark Shadows is a wild card but a Johny Depp genre comedy is a very different entity than a Depp genre action adventure with comedic elements(Pirates) I honestly don't see that picture breaking 110. Battleship is actually the one I'm keeping my eye on two weeks after and presenting similar spectacle. But word is horrible on it. We have no idea what the word will be on the two films opening up 2 weeks after TDKR. Both of which are almost the exact same audience Nolan is vying for. The minute the reviews say "this is the best Bourne yet"(very possible) then what?

If Spidey is making 30 mill in it's third week(very possible) than that takes away from Bat's 150mill opening. It's almost literally the same audience and just think what would bat's 150mill OW actually be if the 30mill that was going to spiderman wasn't going to spiderman. Avengers at least get's a pure opening weekend figure(which adds to buzz) seeing as it currently faces nothing of the sort. I think Bat's would rather be facing a 3 week gaped MIB than Spiderman to be honest.

 

[Bruce Malone]

You always rather face your competition in the rear view than coming ahead. 30 million could be very optimistic for spider-man tbh. TDK absolutly obliterated any comic film that came within weeks of it. Hellboy and TIH were victims there.

Honestly by tdkr's opening weekend all the hard core spider fans will have seen spider-man in the previous weeks and anyone with even the least interest in seeing a comic film will be going to tdkr that weekend. I kid you not but i think the only way spider-man can benefit that weekend is by people who are too late to catch a sold out screening of tdkr and see spider-man instead. Happened to me for step-brothers tdk's 2nd week i think.

Nobody is scared of ice-age trust me. It is not in TDKR's peripherals. It will bomb in north america and at most it will get the 7 year olds over seas. It will have no affect trust me.

Finally for bourne and recall if they are indeed being released the same weekend i actually see them crossing each other out. They are more similar to each than the the dark knight and again MI3 will open big no matter what will MF smith. The other two with jeremy renner and colin farell no such guarantee.