2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 2

[Iceman]

thats my thought as well they are going to make a killing on the sequel.fans have to trust this first film like batman begins so it wont make as much the first time around.its budget is 220mill they will be fine with between 250 and 300 million domestic.it will do about 400 to 500 os.they will let the sequel be made on those numbers.

I'll trust it when I hear good things about it. I'm certainly open to liking it & the leads were well cast.

I think the key with reboots is to make the movie distinct and travel new ground.

Star Trek did that, it was very much it's own new thing, not connected to the other movies.

With the Incredible Hulk, Ang Lee's Hulk left a very bad taste in everyone's mouth and people weren't sure if this was connected to that movie or if it was it's own thing. For X-Men, they really wanted you to think it was connected, which I feel really hurt it because the continuity of that franchise is totally screwed. I think they really just needed to throw out any and all connection to the old franchise. Also for both these movies the reboot happened too close to the last movie.

Batman Begins should have made more money, I think it's a little better than The Dark Knight actually. However, the brand was damaged at that point and not everyone knew what to make of this new movie. A friend actually asked me if it was a prequel to Tim Burton's Batman when we left the movie.

Yep and it was similar for Superman Returns where it was also kind of connected but not at the same time. I can't imagine what these reboots are like for the GA who don't have the info we have.

New ground/freshness is key. BB did the amazing job of taking Batman from the sewer and putting him on the path of greatness while telling an origin story that wasn't a retread. I hope Spider-man can do something similar but I'll wait and see. Just finding it difficult to get excited about it with Avengers & TDKR in the same summer.

 

[Marvin]

The difference I feel for Spidey in comparison to the WB reboots(and even the Marvel Studio one), is that they just weren't all that watchable as films. Especially Returns.

If a movie is dope in context and viewability than it will do strong numbers. I've mentioned it before but Begins just falls short of this in large part, whereas I remember running back to watch TDK twice.

From what I've seen I think ASM will have this.

 

[CConn]

The difference I feel for Spidey in comparison to the WB reboots(and even the Marvel Studio one), is that they just weren't all that watchable as films. Especially Returns.

If a movie is dope in context and viewability than it will do strong numbers. I've mentioned it before but Begins just falls short of this in large part, whereas I remember running back to watch TDK twice.

From what I've seen I think ASM will have this.

Wait, you didn't think BB was good, and SR was downright unwatchable?

 

[Marvin]

Wait, you didn't think BB was good, and SR was downright unwatchable?

I find Returns unwatchable yes.
Begins I find "good" or rather watchable most mostly because of what's come after.

 

[CConn]

I find Returns unwatchable yes.
Begins I find "good" or rather watchable most mostly because of what's come after.

I'd say your opinion is a lot stricter than the GA.

The B&R argument makes a lot more sense to me when people talk about BB's lackluster showing.

Not being able to watch Returns period belies a lack of film knowledge in general, IMO, but we won't go into that.

 

[DACrowe]

thats my thought as well they are going to make a killing on the sequel.fans have to trust this first film like batman begins so it wont make as much the first time around.its budget is 220mill they will be fine with between 250 and 300 million domestic.it will do about 400 to 500 os.they will let the sequel be made on those numbers.

I think TASM will make enough to gets its sequel, but that number is not going to be near $250 million, much less 300, domestic. I'd say $200 to $220 million is more like what it will actually do (my final prediction was at $210 million). I've seen some make solid arguments for it grossing under $190 million, but I think they're being too cynical.

 

[DACrowe]

I just don't see it getting horrible reviews.
And as redundant as a reboot may or may not be, it's also an intrigue generating endeavor.

I heard the reaction to the test screenings back in February/January were mixed. That's why there were a few reshoots. Granted, that could just be industry gossip, but you never know.

 

[Marvin]

I'd say your opinion is a lot stricter than the GA.

The B&R argument makes a lot more sense to me when people talk about BB's lackluster showing.

Not being able to watch Returns period belies a lack of film knowledge in general, IMO, but we won't go into that.

I'm actually the opposite of strict most of the times(just hop over to the TF forms if you don't believe). When people criticize the GA(happens alot in this day and age), I mostly sympathize with them. They're the only real honestly left in this industry in a lot of ways.

The B&R argument isn't without it's grounds, obviously if you replace B&R with TDK, then Begins performs very differently. But if you replace BB with TDK then numbers would also be different. From my experience Begins just didn't have what it needed to captivate an the audience and it was in the position where it really needed to. B&R is not the reason why most people appreciate TDK over BB. It's just one of the films really hits home whilst the other doesn't.

Let me rephrase, I find Returns an unwatchable experience. My film knowledge is fine, at least I hope it is, I did go to film school
If Returns was a comic book I'd put it down half way though...put it down and pick up many of the far more readable Superman books.

 

[CConn]

I can't imagine the film would be anywhere near complete in January. At very least editing/CGI-wise.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Didn't Begins sell out like hot cakes in the home video market? The general public response to the film was generally pretty positive.

 

[Marvin]

I heard the reaction to the test screenings back in February/January were mixed. That's why there were a few reshoots. Granted, that could just be industry gossip, but you never know.

I've heard a lot of gossip about this picture. Probably because it's in the position where people will believe most of it. Supposedly the Exec's at Sony hate it Again, out of the three comicbook films this year which one are we more likely to believe that about...There are very few films that don't need reshoots in some capacity.

That being said, an early screening could have very well gone poorly. I think that's the nature of this film. Spidey's humor, the organic effects, all things that need lots of tweeks in the end.

..I'm waiting till tonight

 

[CConn]

I'm actually the opposite of strict most of the times(just hop over to the TF forms if you don't believe). When people criticize the GA(happens alot in this day and age), I mostly sympathize with them. They're the only real honestly left in this industry in a lot of ways.

Well, that's nice. But just because you're forgiving with some things, doesn't mean you aren't strict with others.

I'm not a massive fan of BB, but I've never heard anything but positive things about it from the GA. Aside from the people who thought it was a B89 prequel, of course.

The B&R argument isn't without it's grounds, obviously if you replace B&R with TDK, then Begins performs very differently. But if you replace BB with TDK then numbers would also be different. From my experience Begins just didn't have what it needed to captivate an the audience and it was in the position where it really needed to. B&R is not the reason why most people appreciate TDK over BB. It's just one of the films really hits home whilst the other doesn't.

Okay, that makes sense. Maybe you were just being heavy handed with your original comments. BB doesn't have the explosiveness of TDK, "falls short of viewable".

Let me rephrase, I find Returns an unwatchable experience. My film knowledge is fine, at least I hope it is, I did go to film school

What the hell does an unwatchable experience mean?

I totally agree it had issues story-wise, but it was a beautifully shot filmed, with strong set design, costuming, and production value. I've always appreciated the film for those reasons alone.

 

[DACrowe]

I'm actually the opposite of strict most of the times(just hop over to the TF forms if you don't believe). When people criticize the GA(happens alot in this day and age), I mostly sympathize with them. They're the only real honestly left in this industry in a lot of ways.

The B&R argument isn't without it's grounds, obviously if you replace B&R with TDK, then Begins performs very differently. But if you replace BB with TDK then numbers would also be different. From my experience Begins just didn't have what it needed to captivate an the audience and it was in the position where it really needed to. B&R is not the reason why most people appreciate TDK over BB. It's just one of the films really hits home whilst the other doesn't.

Let me rephrase, I find Returns an unwatchable experience. My film knowledge is fine, at least I hope it is, I did go to film school
If Returns was a comic book I'd put it down half way though...put it down and pick up many of the far more readable Superman books.

BB did a pretty great job captivating its audience. It got mostly great reviews, only slightly less than what TDK would later get and that was mostly because a lot of critics felt initially turned off by a "serious Batman movie." It opened small because most of the GA was just not interested in another Batman movie after they had 4 in the previous 15 or so years, the last two of which sucked. But BB had amazing legs. It opened ridiculously small for a superhero movie ($41 million, I think?) and went on to have very small drops and crossed $200 million. People were writing off a sequel to it as impossible it's OW, but by the end of its run a Joker-sequel was all but inevitable.

I also think it helped contribute to the hype for TDK given that BB was so well received on DVD by those who skipped "another Batman movie" in the theater. Personally, I remember being ind of blown away by it. I still preferred other superhero movies (like SM2), but I didn't realize Batman could be don so well on the screen and that I could see a superhero movie break away from the clichés so easily. I honestly think that if the Schumaucher films didn't exist, it would have crossed $300 million that year.

 

[CConn]

Hah. Apparently Marvin was more wrong than even I thought. Thank God for film school.

 

[DACrowe]

I've heard a lot of gossip about this picture. Probably because it's in the position where people will believe most of it. Supposedly the Exec's at Sony hate it Again, out of the three comicbook films this year which one are we more likely to believe that about...There are very few films that don't need reshoots in some capacity.

That being said, an early screening could have very well gone poorly. I think that's the nature of this film. Spidey's humor, the organic effects, all things that need lots of tweeks in the end.

..I'm waiting till tonight

True. I heard that Sony rumor. Sometimes that crap is unfounded (like Lord of the Rings), founded but irrelevant (Disney's reaction to the first Pirates of the Caribbean) and rarely true (John Carter).

But let's just say, other than the excellent casting of the two leads, everything I've seen thus far of TASM has left me skeptical. I'm going to see it because I grew up a Spidey fanboy and Lizard was my favorite villain, but if it doesn't work, I don't expect that sort of loyalty from most audiences in the world.

 

[EML420]

I was suprised at how many people I know who saw Dark Knight and not BB I feel like the origin story of Batman and a few other super heros are kinda know the general idea like Batman his parents killed infront of him seeks just etc.

 

[CConn]

I wonder why they hate it.

 

[CConn]

I was suprised at how many people I know who saw Dark Knight and not BB I feel like the origin story of Batman and a few other super heros are kinda know the general idea like Batman his parents killed infront of him seeks just etc.

That's probably because BB was woefully under-marketed.

As was SR, actually.

 

[EML420]

BB is known and loved by comic fans but its still seems really off the radar to the GA im still kinda amazed by how easy it is to watch DK with out knowing much about Bats in general.

I hope TASM does good but man the buzz is like non existent heck TDKR is already getting the buzz going but then again its much more anticipated.

 

[Chewy]

But BB had amazing legs. It opened ridiculously small for a superhero movie ($41 million, I think?) and went on to have very small drops and crossed $200 million. People were writing off a sequel to it as impossible it's OW, but by the end of its run a Joker-sequel was all but inevitable.

Batman Begins opened well. It's skewed because it opened on a Wednesday.

 

[dark_b]

spending more money on BB would be money thrown away IMO. it couldnt make more money because of B&R. people needed to see the movie to give it positive word of mouth.

 

[CConn]

spending more money on BB would be money thrown away IMO. it couldnt make more money because of B&R. people needed to see the movie to give it positive word of mouth.

I think that's a pretty unfounded prediction.

If they marketed BB appropriately, it would've been more clear to people that it was absolutely nothing like B&R. Plus, Y'know, people might have gone purely because it was Batman.

As it was, a lot of people didn't even know the movie existed until TDK came out. That's not gaining positive WOM, that's a mistake on the marketing department.

 

[DACrowe]

Batman Begins opened well. It's skewed because it opened on a Wednesday.

Really? I'd forgotten that. Even still, I'd say Batman's popularity is comparable to Spider-Man (they both rise and fall at different times but are about even overall) when Spidey was a character people craved at multiplexes he could open on a Wednesday (SM2) and still garner $85 or $86 million his OW eight years ago. $41 million was low for the Batman character.

I think that's a pretty unfounded prediction.

If they marketed BB appropriately, it would've been more clear to people that it was absolutely nothing like B&R. Plus, Y'know, people might have gone purely because it was Batman.

As it was, a lot of people didn't even know the movie existed until TDK came out. That's not gaining positive WOM, that's a mistake on the marketing department.

I guess there could have been more TV commercials, I can't really remember. But I think this trailer pretty much straight out says "I ain't your daddy's Batman:"



This movie had to find its audience beyond fanboys just like TASM will have to do.

 

[mclay18]

That being said, an early screening could have very well gone poorly. I think that's the nature of this film. Spidey's humor, the organic effects, all things that need lots of tweeks in the end.

I don't think it's necessarily the quality of the movie, but the quality of marketing also plays a big factor here. You'd figure that Sony, who did a phenomenal job marketing the hell out of SM-2 and SM-3, would nail the approach for a reboot. And on top of that, the reaction to it is indifferent.

And all the footage I see, my reactions are mixed. TASM will be lucky to gross $200M domestic, and if it does -- the quality of the movie and WOM will decide that.

That's probably because BB was woefully under-marketed.

I remember seeing some TV ads prior and after it came out in theaters. But WB didn't want to splash out a big marketing campaign because the franchise was tarnished back then, and they didn't know if it would make a profit. They gave it a modest marketing push, and let the film speak for itself.

It makes sense. I don't see why you thought any different.

 

[CConn]

I don't think it's necessarily the quality of the movie, but the quality of marketing also plays a big factor here. You'd figure that Sony, who did a phenomenal job marketing the hell out of SM-2 and SM-3, would nail the approach for a reboot. And on top of that, the reaction to it is indifferent.

And all the footage I see, my reactions are mixed. TASM will be lucky to gross $200M domestic, and if it does -- the quality of the movie and WOM will decide that.



I remember seeing some TV ads prior and after it came out in theaters. But WB didn't want to splash out a big marketing campaign because the franchise was tarnished back then, and they didn't know if it would make a profit. They gave it a modest marketing push, and let the film speak for itself.

It makes sense. I don't see why you thought any different.

Because it was needlessly timid and probably lost them money given how successful TDK was when it was marketed properly.

I get the logic. But it's the safest logic, not exactly the best.