2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 2

[Raiden]

That's a perfectly fine number and slightly larger than TDK, although TDK didn't have 3D in addition to Imax ticket prices. So it sold less tickets but that's not a big deal. I still don't understand why anyone thought that it would break the midnight record.

It should do over 150mil for the weekend. I still don't see it breaking Potter's record but it's not impossible. At this point I'll give it a 50/50 shot. If I had to predict though, I'd say between 158 and 163mil is where it should come in.

Given the high critic score on RT, extreme awareness of the movie on social networking sites, and momentum hitting the public at the right time, I'd give TA about 90% chance of overtaking Potter for the OW crown. It's not going to be easy, but I think it can be done.

 

[amazingfantasy15]

I don't think Dark Shadows stands a chance against Avengers next weekend. Hopefully Avengers can beat Battleship in two weeks, because that movie looks like full blown diarrhea.

Dark Shadows isn't going to do anything, Tim Burton movies hit big when it's a known property, Dark Shadows isn't a known property. It won't hit $100 million domestic in it's entire run.

I really don't see Battleship being a hit, I think it'll be this year's Speed Racer.

 

[DACrowe]

$18.7 M midnight.

Pretty great. Still, not record breaking. I feel more comfortable now with my $157-$162 opening prediction. Of course, this could just do astonishing all weekend and I'll have egg on my face come Sunday.

 

[DACrowe]

I don't think Dark Shadows stands a chance against Avengers next weekend. Hopefully Avengers can beat Battleship in two weeks, because that movie looks like full blown diarrhea.

Dark Shadows, if it's good, should do quite well. I can see it opening with 40-55 million and having a solid run. Let's say TA makes around $160 million this weekend, an average drop will put it around $70 million next weekend. So, it's going to win, but DS isn't trying to play in the same league. They can both have a good showing next week.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Given the high critic score on RT, extreme awareness of the movie on social networking sites, and momentum hitting the public at the right time, I'd give TA about 90% chance of overtaking Potter for the OW crown. It's not going to be easy, but I think it can be done.

I think TA would have had to take the midnight showing record for that to happen. Also the thing with potter is it had an insanely devoted following of the millions who were gonna see it no matter what.

Avengers is technically a new property so it will still have some people waiting for the word of mouth before seeing.

TDKR however is sort of like potter now the conclusion to a very popular series with its diehards wanting to pre-oder tickets 6 months ahead if it were possible.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'm still going with 50/50 because social networking sites and Rotten Tomatoes mean nothing. 50/50 is not bad anyway. If it gets the record I won't be surprised based on that midnight number, if it doesn't I won't be surprised based on that midnight number. I just don't know and I'm taking a wait and see attitude for the most part.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Avengers: what a fantastic movie.

My BO verdict:

OW-164 mill

Dom - 440 mill

Worldwide - 1,200,000 mill

By the way, where does it rank in midnight numbers?

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

$65-$67M Friday (including the midnight grosses) per TOLDJA.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

I can't really see The Hobbit breaking it. It just doesn't strike me as 'midnighty' as the other films. I'd probably say similar for Avatar 2. Not that they won't beat most of those films in final gross. They just have broader family friendly appeal & maybe less weight on tween trendiness.

I don't see those two being huge opening weekend movies. They're +400m, but not +125m OW movies in my eyes.

Avengers will come close, I'm saying 163m. TDKR will break it with 177m. If it doesn't, I don't see what will, since nothing extraordinary, box office wise, comes out in 2013..

Avatar was huge. I can imagine the sequel garnishing alot of hype based on the popularity of the film now. It's arduous to predict numbers right now but I feel positive that the sequel will be more sought out than the first installment. As for The Hobbit, it's a property of the LOTR franchise (which has a massive fan-base similar to Potter's) but it positively doesn't appear to possess the identical power to lure in clusters of fans at midnight. However, it wouldn't shock me if the film did break the OW record.

I see The Avengers making 160 million OW, but I don't see it making any more.

 

[Iceman]

$65-$67M Friday (including the midnight grosses) per TOLDJA.

So stripping out midnights from the opening day figures it did roughly inline with DH2's non midnight takings..91m-43m=48m. (TA 65m-18m=47m). Now it needs to hold a lot better on Saturday & Sunday to have any chance of getting close. Got to make up 25m somewhere lol.

 

[Iceman]

Avatar was huge. I can imagine the sequel garnishing alot of hype based on the popularity of the film now. It's arduous to predict numbers right now but I feel positive that the sequel will be more sought out than the first installment. As for The Hobbit, it's a property of the LOTR franchise (which has a massive fan-base similar to Potter's) but it positively doesn't appear to possess the identical power to lure in clusters of fans at midnight. However, it wouldn't shock me if the film did break the OW record.

I see The Avengers making 160 million OW, but I don't see it making any more.

Yeah but it will have lost its freshness as a lot of its attraction was breaking technological barriers (which I believe it very much succeeded at). Repeating that trick is necessary to see similar box office levels and even then it's difficult to repeat it to the same extent. Also regarding the reception in the US, although very positive, there were more detractors than many other well regarded films. More importantly although it will be a hell of a lot more front loaded than the first film, I think it will remain a series with the best legs in the market rather than the biggest openings. Many people who do see it will want to wait (if necessary) to see it in IMAX rather than opening night on their local small screen. If it does smash through further technological barriers while improving on the story elements I think it can do over $500m with a $150m+ opening weekend. No midnight records though.

The Hobbit will have to be LOTR standard to make any mark at the box office. There will be fast travelling bad WoM/disappointment if it's not a good fit. I don't see it breaking any US opening records of any kind but again having good legs similar to its predecessors. Must say the Wednesday openings do throw me off a bit when I'm trying to make comparisons.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

$65-$67M Friday (including the midnight grosses) per TOLDJA.

I'm going to wait for the complete estimates before I estimate it's opening weekend. But of course it's doing great numbers.

I still don't see it breaking the opening weekend record but anything is possible.

 

[Marvin]

I'm still holding with my 154mill

but kids are in school during these weekdays, there is still hope yet.

 

[Liam_H]

By the way, where does it rank in midnight numbers?

8th place, I believe.

 

[:eek:]

Top 13 worldwide

1. The Hunger Games $603,5 million
2. The Intouchables $328,5 million
3. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island $323 million
4. Titanic $317,5 million ($2 160,7 million in total)
5. Marvel's The Avengers $304 million
6. Dr. Seuss' The Lorax $296,3 million
7. Wrath of the Titans $290 million
8. John Carter $269,9 million
9. Safe House $201,3 million
10. The Vow $183,1 million
11. 21 Jump Street $175 million
12. Battleship $170 million
13. Underworld Awakening $160,1 million

 

[jmc]

Holy crap Titanic has made another $300 million?

 

[Liam_H]

Holy crap Titanic has made another $300 million?

Yeap. It blew up in China. Almost half of its overseas total from the re-release came from them.

 

[mclay18]

Saw The Avengers tonight. If there's any indication, the film will hold great for the next couple of weeks. Packed theaters (both 2D and 3D), and most of the audience reactions were very positive.

It won't take the OW record away, but it won't be as frontloaded either. I can see this doing a 3x multipler, similar to the first Iron Man.

 

[Liam_H]

That would mean ~$450 million domestic finish.

 

[mclay18]

That would mean ~$450 million domestic finish.

I can see it happening, if people don't take a shine to Battleship in two weeks.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

That would mean ~$450 million domestic finish.

I'm actually predicting The Avengers gets 475-480 million DM. It's laborious to predict whether or not Dark Shadows and Battleship will cause consequential dents but I don't see either dethroning The Avengers.

I see The Avengers at #1 for three weeks in a row until MIB3 comes around.

 

[:eek:]

I can't really see The Hobbit breaking it. It just doesn't strike me as 'midnighty' as the other films. I'd probably say similar for Avatar 2. Not that they won't beat most of those films in final gross. They just have broader family friendly appeal & maybe less weight on tween trendiness.

And let's not forget that summer movies usually are more frontloaded than December-releases. And if these two movies turns out to be three-hour-movies they will likely be even less frontloaded

 

[Avenger]

I can see it happening, if people don't take a shine to Battleship in two weeks.

I don't think they will. Battleship looks poised to be this year's big summer flop, IMO.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

$175M 3-day for The Avengers.

We have a new champion!

 

[chaseter]

Good movie...so it deserves it! Bring on Avengers 2.