2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 2

[Bruce Malone]

Ehh if were talking box office here i don't think china will be a huge money maker. Hunger games has not performed nearly as well over seas as it has in NA. I mean are those books even being legally sold in china?

 

[Iceman]

Nikki Finke finally mentioning the possibility of a $200m opening weekend for Avengers. If Friday is $80m, Saturday $70m it would need $50m more to get there.

 

[Iceman]

Ehh if were talking box office here i don't think china will be a huge money maker. Hunger games has not performed nearly as well over seas as it has in NA. I mean are those books even being legally sold in china?

I'm surprised this film is being allowed to play given the anti-government subject matter. At the moment it seems to be a mainly US phenomenon. Could easily do much better overseas in the sequel though. Quite a few films take a sequel before overseas audiences get on board.

It will be a success, it will likely not be the biggest film of the year though. I won't totally rule that out happening because these records are practically meaningless now since no film can seemingly hold on to it for more than a year or so.

That's probably what's so impressive about Spider-man 1 as it held the record for 4 years, which is longer than anyone else has at this point.

Breaking records in the US market is more impressive as it's far more mature and apart from inflation, you're not getting as much help from the market size itself massively increasing (like overseas). That said 3D & IMAX to a much lesser extent have also made records much easier to break in recent years. I still see breaking a record as a big deal whoever does it & for however long it stands. Of course it's a lot more impressive if you can keep it for a long time but with so much franchise fare around nowadays, if noone breaks your record it's odds on that your own sequel will.

 

[Marvin]

China isn't the market it used to be.

 

[DACrowe]

So, I was off about my predictions for TA by like $15 million if it really did open at $175 million this weekend. That crow sure tastes good.

 

[Iceman]

Finke now saying on track for $200m (earlier just mentioned as a possibility). She's upgraded the Saturday to $69.7m

 

[DACrowe]

It's dumb that Raimi even had to consider it as being forced down us throat.

If I was directing Spider-Man, and the studio said I had to do Venom, I'd be "Really? Awesome. I'll make it work."

Not ***** out because I didn't get to use Vulture instead.

I'm of the mind that Venom can not be done satisfactorily in one movie. To tell the story properly you need to devote at least two acts to Peter getting the symbiote and it effecting him. Thus, in a single film Venom is automatically regulated to being solely a third act villain. Raimi ran into this problem in SM3 (as well as a poor execution of the symbiote's effect on Peter Parker). The only way to do the character well is to do a 2-part film where he loses the symbiote at the end of the first part and Venom is the baddie in the second. And honestly, he's always been a weak character to me, so I don't really want to see two movies devoted to him. Raimi had the right idea with making Brock his doppleganger and casting Topher Grace. The problem is he didn't have time to develop Brock/Grace, but the concept is far more interesting that comic-Brock.


As for all the bashing of Raimi/Maguire going around in this thread:

For whatever minor problems his first two movies had, they worked incredibly well as films. Maguire and Raimi made audiences care about Peter Parker as more than an action hero, but as a truly engaging protagonist. And SM2 captures in spirit, if not details, the things that made the Stan Lee Spidey comics Marvel's "golden age" (visceral action, soap opera drama, romance, humor, and a young superhero who hates his life). I do think Andrew Garfield looks to capture more of Peter's personality form the comics in TASM, but I'm not going to jump for joy yet, because the movie still looks like it could be a mess and the buzz around it is toxic. I won't join the bandwagon of ****ting on the Raimi films until I see how good this supposedly superior reboot/remake is.

P.S. One thing people can't deny is Raimi knows how to do comic book action scenes. Even after The Avengers, I've yet to see someone capture the kinetic energy and "OMG" whiz factor in a superhero movie the way he did with the train fight in SM2 or even his first fight with Harry in SM3.

Just a thought.

 

[The Morningstar]

Whilst the Spidey action scenes were great, nothing, nothing compares to *that* tracking shot. It was a moment where i thought i'd died and gone to comic book fan heaven. The way it showed all the heroes doing their thing in one continuous shot. It was action, but full of character moments.

And the way it finished? Brilliance.

Oh and BTW seems Avengers has made 200 million OW.

 

[mclay18]

Wow. A $200M opening weekend for The Avengers, but that's with 3D surcharges as well.

 

[DACrowe]

It's now $200 million?

Not only was I wrong, I now wonder if TDKR can pass that. It may not.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Avengers did way better than I expected. I was thinking maybe $150 million tops. I have doubts TDKR will surpass this now as well. TASM has no chance of doing so.

 

[The Morningstar]

Avengers may have had 3D, but so did Potter right? The fact that it completely stomped Potter's OW is insane. Not just a few million more, 40 million more? You kidding me?!

And TDKR won't beat it, not without 3D i don't think. No film will beat this for a long time.

So now, what will it get overall? If the drops are small, which i imagine they will be with the amazing WOM and lack of competition, a billion is a lock at this point.

 

[:eek:]

Yeah, Avengers might be hard to top after this insane opening weekend. Perhaps being released in May is a huge advantage. After all, Thor was the biggest superhero-movie last year.

 

[matrix_ghost]

Well at least Disney can breath a sigh of relief . THis has to compensate for JC failure.

 

[TheComicbookKid]

And TDKR won't beat it, not without 3D i don't think. No film will beat this for a long time.

Bull. Between increasing ticket prices and 3D/IMAX expansion and forcing out 2D.

Avengers and Harry Potter have just explained how to do it.

This is just like when someone breaks a track and field record. Then suddenly more people are able to do it.

 

[kvz5]

That is just mind-blowingly amazing.

 

[Whiskey Tango]

The Avengers Sets New Opening Weekend Record with $200.3M!

 

[DoomsdayApex]

This feels so good.

WB, do you see what you missed out on? Ha!

 

[The Morningstar]

Bull. Between increasing ticket prices and 3D/IMAX expansion and forcing out 2D.

Avengers and Harry Potter have just explained how to do it.

This is just like when someone breaks a track and field record. Then suddenly more people are able to do it.

Avengers didn't just top Potter, it completely stomped it.

This is like the 100 metre record going from 9 seconds down to 5 seconds.

This wasn't just 3D, it was a perfect storm of multiple factors.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Yeah, Avengers might be hard to top after this insane opening weekend. Perhaps being released in May is a huge advantage. After all, Thor was the biggest superhero-movie last year.

Maybe, but I think Thor was the easiest sell too.

X-Men & Captain America were both period pieces, and X-Men had the further disadvantage of following two terrible films in a franchise that was now missing its biggest star. Cap may have been hurt a bit by anti-American sentiments.

Green Lantern looked awful and was generally thought of to be awful.

Thor didn't have the red flags that the others had and also had the biggest star out of all the films (Natalie Portman). In particular, and this is based upon my personal experience so I don't have stats to back it up, I suspect that Thor had a greater appeal to women than the other superhero films that came out last summer.

 

[:eek:]

So... ten years ago we had the first movie (Spider-Man) to make over $100 million the opening weekend. Now we have a $200 million OW. Perhaps we will have a $300 million OW in 2022 then.

 

[chaseter]

Iceman...now it will probably make $500 million domestic hahaha. $200 million opening weekend is crazy!

 

[The Morningstar]

It's truly insane. This film might be in the billions before it's first real competition gets released in MiB3.

 

[Iceman]

Iceman...now it will probably make $500 million domestic hahaha. $200 million opening weekend is crazy!

Yep! Doesn't even need good legs anymore t:

 

[:eek:]

Sunday Update: Disney reports that The Avengers will have an international cume of $441.5 million by the end of this weekend. If that and the domestic estimate of $200.3 million both stick, then the worldwide cume will be a staggering $641.8 million.