2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 4

[Mrs. Sawyer]

You gotta read the Geneva convention more.

 

[akfj]

I'll have to dust off my copy.

 

[rayc1971]

so it looks like the auroa shooting did hurt the darknight rises some insiders are reporting only 165mill for the weekend nowhere near the record.

 

[danoyse]

There was like one cop car at our theater... just goes to show how this thing is really just an isolated incident. I doubt it's going to inspire copycats. That's a bit of a stretch and something out of a movie. As horrible as this is, it's interesting to think about the security to a movie theater now. I mean should it be more secure?

But I doubt something like this is going to kill the OW gross.

I was in NY today see a Broadway show and the AMC on 42nd St and had a few cops at the doors, but they usually have police there when it's busy, so it didn't look much different than normal. There were two TV news vans there as well.

But the place was busy. All of the IMAX shows were sold out for the day.

 

[El Hombre Gato]

Don't show up in costume, folks.

 

[:eek:]

so it looks like the auroa shooting did hurt the darknight rises some insiders are reporting only 165mill for the weekend nowhere near the record.

Well, it is a record for a non-3D release. And opening weekends aren't everything.

 

[psylockolussus]

Well, it is a record for a non-3D release. And opening weekends aren't everything.

Yeah I have a feeling TDKR will have good legs.

 

[Marvin]

So now we have a record for non 3D films?
Sure I guess....As if studios need more incentive to force the 3D surcharge.

Besides there could be great number of other reasons why this didn't pull avengers money. I think this did fine for not having the Joker and Heath, as well as could be expected. Moreover final numbers haven't been set yet.
I guessed 170 and I'm sticking with it.

 

[DACrowe]

I won't deny, I honestly think it would have made quite a bit more if that terrible tragedy did not occur. I'm not trying to be callous or trivialize such a terrible event--seriously words can not describe the horror of it--but if we're looking at BO numbers even if studios were overestimating TDKR's opening, there is little doubt if something is being tracked at $200-$220 million and then is off by $40-$60 million, something happened beyond overestimation. At the very least, I'm pretty sure it would have beaten Potter's $169 record from last year.

Oh well. Given what has occurred this weekend it really puts perspective on how trivial something like this is.

 

[terry78]

I know if it underperforms people are gonna say what it "should have" made, but in the grand scheme of things regarding it, it won't really matter anymore.

 

[rayc1971]

I won't deny, I honestly think it would have made quite a bit more if that terrible tragedy did not occur. I'm not trying to be callous or trivialize such a terrible event--seriously words can not describe the horror of it--but if we're looking at BO numbers even if studios were overestimating TDKR's opening, there is little doubt if something is being tracked at $200-$220 million and then is off by $40-$60 million, something happened beyond overestimation. At the very least, I'm pretty sure it would have beaten Potter's $169 record from last year.

Oh well. Given what has occurred this weekend it really puts perspective on how trivial something like this is.

yeah that was the point i was making its off by 40mill so it was hurt.im okay with it not beating avengers it still has a shot at being the highest grossing 3rd film in a trilogy.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

I hated the film so I am okay by the results.

 

[jacobed]

Yes we know. Shut it

 

[Tacit Ronin]

yeah that was the point i was making its off by 40mill so it was hurt.im okay with it not beating avengers it still has a shot at being the highest grossing 3rd film in a trilogy.

I doubt it'll beat Return of the King.

 

[Liam_H]

If it doesn't beat ROTK then that's a pretty terrible multiplier, basically HP7.2 front-loading.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Cut the smack talk guys. Discuss the BO/movies civilly on here. If you can't, then it is you who should shut it.

 

[rayc1971]

I doubt it'll beat Return of the King.

return of the king did 377mill domestic this movie will clearly do over 400mill the question is can it catch the 2nd films 533mill.im talkin domestic numbers only.

 

[rayc1971]

If it doesn't beat ROTK then that's a pretty terrible multiplier, basically HP7.2 front-loading.

yeah if this makes less than 377mill thats spiderman 3 level disaster.i think that guy said return of the king without even looking to see that it made 377mill.he probably thought it made more than that.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

yeah if this makes less than 377mill thats spiderman 3 level disaster.i think that guy said return of the king without even looking to see that it made 377mill.he probably thought it made more than that.

Not at all.

 

[Liam_H]

Well if you look at multipliers SM3 has 2.22 and if TDKR makes $377 million off a projected $161 million weekend thats only 2.34. That's pretty bad. And yes we do have to take in certain factors but its too hard to extrapolate what how that's gonna effect in the long run.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Well the final studio tally's only come out tomorrow so we'll have the definite results. However comparing it to S3 is silly. S3 actually had a great OW it was the record at the time it was in subsequent weekends that the tally fell due to poor word of mouth.

TDKR by all accounts has great word or mouth. We need to wait untill 2nd weekend grosses to get a good idea of how the film's legs are.

 

[akfj]

We need to wait untill 2nd weekend grosses to get a good idea of how the film's legs are.

That's pretty reasonable.

 

[Liam_H]

The weekday daily take will also be a pretty good indicator.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

I strongly doubt TKDR would have as close as bad legs to TDKR considering that its word of mouth is better.

 

[El Hombre Gato]

spiderman 3 level disaster

How is Spider-Man 3 a disaster? It did great box office considering it opened the same month as Shrek the Third and POTC: At World's End.