2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 4

[HighFivingMF]

Don't use 3D as an excuse when something scores at the box office. Like I said before, the fact remains that all those people still went to see it, 3D or not.

Nobody is using it as an excuse... They're acknowledging it sold a lot of tickets but made more money than it would have because of the 3D.

 

[Liam_H]

If TDKR had grossed around $185 million a lot of people were saying that probably beats the attendance record set by TA. 3D surcharges were said to have added around $25 million to their opening weekend total.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Why not?

Leone had a falling out with Eastwood. Don't know why.

If TDKR had grossed around $185 million a lot of people were saying that probably beats the attendance record set by TA. 3D surcharges were said to have added around $25 million to their opening weekend total.

From the math that I did earlier in the thread, it added $29 million.

To think that it will make a significant difference is silly and ridiculous. Hunger Games collected only $10.8 million from IMAX theaters, and only part of that are IMAX surcharges considering the average number for a regular ticket price is around $8 rounded up from $7.93, and IMAX surcharges are only $3.

3 (IMAX surcharges) divided by 11 (the totall price of the average IMAX ticket) = .27 (so it's 27% of IMAX tickets). Now multiply that by the Hunger Games' IMAX opening, and that equals $3 million when rounded up, and this was considered to be the best IMAX debut for a non-3D movie. The Dark Knight Rises will probably make around $4, $5 million at best from IMAX surcharges.

For a comparison let's compare it to the Avengers opening weekend. Same Average, around $8 a ticket.

It made $207 million domestic. 52% were 3D tickets. Multiply that by .52 and it's $107.52 million. Now multiple that by .27 (since surcharges are usually $3, so it account for 27% of tickets), and it you can see that the 3D for the Avengers accounted for $29 million of tickets.

It got a huge boost. Still, The Avengers still would have broken the weekend record even without the 3D. And I didn't even go into the IMAX 3D for that.

The point is, IMAX surcharges are not going to have as big an effect at all, especially compared to 3D. 3D is way more widespread.

 

[terry78]

It just sounds to me like people are saying the 3D surcharge shouldn't count towards it.

 

[Liam_H]

From the math that I did earlier in the thread, it added $29 million.

Estimates have a pretty wide range since we don't have exact figures but going by your number TDKR had a good chance chance of surpassing that total.

No one is saying it shouldn't but that it can be somewhat deceptive when comparing.

 

[Shifty]

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=topsuperhero.htm

The Avengers
Mon $18,898,999
Tue $17,677,190

The Dark Knight Rises
Mon $19,389,129
Tue $17,745,000 (estimate)

The Dark Knight
Mon $24,493,313
Tue $20,868,722

TDKR is just slightly ahead of TA for the weekday grosses but well below TDK so it's hard to say what kind of second weekend TDKR will have.

 

[Liam_H]

Its a lot more impressive for TA since those are school weekdays.

 

[El Hombre Gato]

Its a lot more impressive for TA since those are school weekdays.

True, but it also has to be pointed out that Dark Knight Rises is selling more tickets during the weekday. And sold almost as much over the weekend. At the end of the day, Avengers will get all the glory but its attendence wasn't much higher.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Estimates have a pretty wide range since we don't have exact figures but going by your number TDKR had a good chance chance of surpassing that total.

No one is saying it shouldn't but that it can be somewhat deceptive when comparing.

It did have a good chance surpassing it, especially considering that that it was tracking at least $190 million.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Competition wise TDKR is stll in pretty good hands for the weekend step up part 4/5/666 whatever it is shouldn't pose much a of a threat. As for the watch i feel the marketing has been really muddled.

It's actually a sci-fi alien comedy but some ads totally downplay that element others don't its unbalanced so i don't expect big numbers from it this weekend.

 

[rayc1971]

tdkr is trackin at 66mill this weekend thats a 59% drop if true i had hoped it would do around 75mill and less than a 50% drop.those numbers means it wont hit 500mill domestic probably finish from 400 to 450mill domestic.

 

[Shifty]

Some updates as a few June/July releases are winding down.

On pace to be a....Box Office Bomb ● Box Office Disappointment ● Box Office Success ● Blockbuster ● Not Released Yet

based on worldwide gross, budget, marketing costs and type of film (indie/blockbuster) Films will likely turn a profit/break even with global TV cable sales and Blu-ray sales.

Dark Shadows ● Battleship ● What to Expect When You're Expecting ● Piranha 3DD ● Lola Versus ● Rock of Ages ● That's My Boy ● Girl in Progress ● Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter ● Seeking a Friend for the End of the World ● People Like Us ● Beasts of the Southern Wild ● Savages

The Dictator ● Hysteria ● Chernobyl Diaries ● Snow White and the Huntsman ● Prometheus ● Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection ● Katy Perry: Part of Me

MIB3 ● Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted ● Moonrise Kingdom ● Brave ● Ted ● Magic Mike ● The Amazing Spider-Man ●

The Avengers ● Ice Age: Continental Drift ● The Dark Knight Rises


Warner Bros.
Dark Shadows 5/11/12
Chernobyl Diaries 5/25/12
Rock of Ages 6/15/12
Magic Mike 6/29/12
The Dark Knight Rises 7/20/12
The Campaign 8/10/12
The Apparition 8/24/12

Buena Vista Pictures (Disney)
The Avengers 05/04/12
Brave 6/22/12
People Like Us 6/29/12
The Odd Life of Timothy Green 8/15/12

Universal
Battleship 5/18/12
Snow White and the Huntsman 6/1/12
Ted 6/29/12
Savages 7/6/12
The Bourne Legacy 8/10/12

20th Century Fox
Prometheus 6/8/12
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter 6/22/12
Ice Age: Continental Drift 7/13/12
The Watch 7/27/12
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days 8/3/12

Columbia Pictures / TriStar
MIB 3 5/25/12
That's My Boy 6/15/12
The Amazing Spider-Man 7/3/12
Total Recall 8/3/12
Hope Springs 8/10/12
Sparkle 8/17/12
Premium Rush 8/24/12

Paramount Pictures / Dreamworks Animation
The Dictator 5/16/12
Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted 6/8/12
Katy Perry: Part of Me 7/5/12

Weinstein / Dimension Films
Piranha 3DD 6/1/12
Easy Money 7/27/12
Lawless 8/31/12

Lionsgate
Girl in Progress 5/11/12
What to Expect When You're Expecting 5/18/12
Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection 6/29/12
The Expendables 2 8/17/12
The Possession 8/31/12

Focus Features
Moonrise Kingdom 5/25/12
Seeking a Friend for the End of the World 6/22/12
ParaNorman 8/17/12
For a Good Time, Call... 8/31/12

Fox Searchlight
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel 5/4/12
Lola Versus 6/8/12
Beasts of the Southern Wild 6/27/12
Ruby Sparks 7/25/12

Sony Pictures Classics
Hysteria 5/18/12
To Rome with Love 6/22/12
Searching for Sugar Man 7/27/12
Celeste and Jesse Forever 8/3/12

Summit Entertainment
Step Up Revolution 7/27/12

Open Road Films
Hit & Run 8/24/12

 

[El Hombre Gato]

During the weekday, attendance for Dark Knight Rises continues to be a lot higher than The Avengers. After 6 days of release, Dark Knight Rises is behind $47 million from Avengers 6th day. It's safe to say that Warner Bros' next Batman movie will be 3D. It also wouldn't surprise me if WB is thinking about converting Man of Steel into 3D.

 

[Liam_H]

They already announced they were thinking about 3D for MOS a few weeks ago.

July weekdays are suppose to be higher than weekdays in May, no surprise there.

 

[mclay18]

It also wouldn't surprise me if WB is thinking about converting Man of Steel into 3D.

They are seriously considering it. They saw the profits ASM and Avengers brought in with 3D surcharges ($233M and $615M domestic), and I think MOS in 3D is a definite go for WB. They just haven't announced it yet.

 

[Bruce Malone]

That's terrible news. What post converted 3d has ever looked good? Honestly who really likes 3d?

It makes me mad that people are just accepting these surcharges for these crappy post-converted flicks. People need to make a stand that we don't want this.

 

[terry78]

That's terrible news. What post converted 3d has ever looked good? Honestly who really likes 3d?

It makes me mad that people are just accepting these surcharges for these crappy post-converted flicks. People need to make a stand that we don't want this.

All you can do is see the 2D version, but most theatre chains have twice the amount of 3D showings than 2D.

 

[Bruce Malone]

All you can do is see the 2D version, but most theatre chains have twice the amount of 3D showings than 2D.

Exactly! I've been rallying that 3d is a ripoff for at least 2-3 years now. I remember like two years ago people giving me that same argument here well guess what 2 years have past and the number of 2d showing have dropped so much some theaters only have the 3d version.

If they do have the 2d version the few 2d showings they have are relegated to a couple times per day.

It is being totally force fed on us. I have never once heard someone come from a post-converted 3d film raving about the 3d most ppl forget it's even in 3d after like 10 minutes so your paying an extra $4-5 for nothing.

It's a scam and it will backfire on the studios down the line.

 

[rayc1971]

During the weekday, attendance for Dark Knight Rises continues to be a lot higher than The Avengers. After 6 days of release, Dark Knight Rises is behind $47 million from Avengers 6th day. It's safe to say that Warner Bros' next Batman movie will be 3D. It also wouldn't surprise me if WB is thinking about converting Man of Steel into 3D.

yeah the next batman will be 3d i can see mr.freeze or clayface being invovled if its 3d.

 

[jmc]

**** I hate 3D. We've had more billion dollar movies in the last 3 years than we've had in the last 20.

 

[marvelman2006]

**** I hate 3D. We've had more billion dollar movies in the last 3 years than we've had in the last 20.

It use to be special when a movie reached a billion, now all of a sudden its normal and expected. Im starting to realize Avatar didnt change the cinema experience but simply and secretly reshaped how much we pay for movie tickets. This is also why I will continue rip off stickers on blurays in stores to save some if not most money on my tickets.

 

[MadVillainy]

It use to be special when a movie reached a billion, now all of a sudden its normal and expected.

Yeah the records arent that fun to follow/interesting anymore. I also do think that the 3D and even the IMAX does put an unfair advantage over records.

I think there needs to start being a record for actual attendance or at least that record should be more prominent.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

I hate 3D too, but as long as I still have the option of viewing things in 2D I won't complain too much.

 

[mclay18]

That's terrible news. What post converted 3d has ever looked good? Honestly who really likes 3d?

There are:

Titanic
The Avengers
Beauty & The Beast
Chronicles of Narnia: Voyage of the Dawn Treader

The job done on the first two was truly impressive. As for 3D and 2D availability, it honestly depends on the release. At our theater, if it's a big-budget release like Transformers 3, Harry Potter 8 or even Narnia 3, there will be separate 2D and 3D shows (usually only one theater each unless its a behemoth like The Avengers where the 2D and 3D shows got 1.5 auditoriums each). If it's a smaller release like Dolphin Tale or Journey 2, both 2D and 3D are in the same auditorium (2 shows per format apiece).

However, if it's a Disney re-release -- the only 2D show is the first one of the day, and the remaining four are in 3D. And if it's still in theaters after two weeks, all of the shows are in 3D.

 

[marvelman2006]

The thing is though 3D is a cheap gimmick whether a movie is shot in or converted in post. I saw titanic and avengers in 3D and I went back and saw avengers in 2D and the 3D didnt enhance the experience that much and make me look at and think differently of the same movie. I mean the only difference was the screen was darker because of the glasses and it took away from some of the more colorful shots.