2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

[Kahran Ramsus]

I heavily doubt that notionm though it also involves selling the movie right.

Superman is viewed as a boring, out of touch hero. Not only is not cool, unlike characters like Batman, Iron Man & Wolverine, but he's the opposite of cool. He's a boy scout. Argue all you want over whether the character is actually like that or not, but that's the public perception of him. It is an enormous uphill battle to fight that and would make it very difficult for any solo Superman film to do gangbusters these days.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Eh, I disagree.

While Superman is a boyscout, he's still this juggernaut. He's basically Zeus in the pantheon of superheroes. The problem is his image, especially nowadays. Kal-El hasn't precisely been an asskicker or badass like Batman or Iron Man. As a matter of fact, one of the big criticisms [from Superman Returns] was that general audience thought the film lacked action and physicality. A makeover, however, fixes that issue, and Man of Steel appears to be a more crowd-pleasing film.

 

[Shifty]

I think some of the general public who skipped seeing Hulk, Thor and Captain America in theaters saw this film coming and wanted to see this because they didn't want to miss out on this 'event' of four films coming together to fight an alien invasion. It became on obligation to catch up and see the film opening weekend almost. Plus it was something you could bring young kids to see.

Some people watched all the films they missed from Netflix or borrowing a DVD (from just one to all of them) before they went and saw it and while all five weren't great, the appeal and setups in each film was enough to get some people, who would've skipped Iron Man 3, Thor 2 or Hulk 2, into the theatre opening weekend.

While others didn't play catch up and just went and saw the film. My parents went and saw its first week and they didn't see Hulk, Thor or Captain America in theatres or likely at all on demand or DVD. My dad did collect comics in the 1960s from Thor to Nick Fury, so it was appealing to him but he didn't go to previous films.

Loki didn't play any factor in the draw, after watching the trailer the general audience wouldn't know his name. The majority of the trailer features the four leads, a little bit of Loki talking and then ends with some alien invasion.

Whereas The Joker is in the majority of The Dark Knight trailer, with some teases of Two-Face, some Batman and Michael Caine. Obviously the death of Ledger and the marketing played a factor but ultimately The Joker and the solid performance of Batman Begins was the draw for TDK.

Certainly will be interesting on how the second phase of the MCU does box office wise here and abroad.

 

[mclay18]

Certainly will be interesting on how the second phase of the MCU does box office wise here and abroad.

The goodwill from The Avengers will definitely benefit Iron Man 3 and Thor 2, financially, next year. And Captain America 2, as well. We'll see if audiences warm up to Guardians of the Galaxy and Ant-Man before Avengers 2 hits theaters.

 

[chaseter]

Audiences aren't going to warm up to GotG or Ant Man. Those heroes are lesser known than the X-Men, Thor, or Cap...and those movies just did ok. I also don't think either of those are going to have the lightning in a bottle performance like RDJ gave in IM. I think those two movies are going to be weak at the box office. I can't say it will bomb yet but they certainly won't do good.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Guardians is really going to have to heavily lean on the Avengers' connection to be successful because a talking raccoon and walking stick fighting in space or other planets isn't exactly appealing (no matter how badass they were in the comics).

 

[marvelman2006]

Thats also why I keep saying we'll never see a deadpool movie. The deadpool character like the punisher and other smaller characters that have cult followings but for movie studios that doesnt ussually translate to box office success despite level of popularity. They barely got by with thor and captain america here domestically so to turn around and throw the GotG at them along with antman is pushing it if you ask me.


i feel like going foward there will be two types of super hero movie categories, the one would be Avengers/TDK/ Ironman/ Superman and the other the catwomans/ green lantern/ hulk/ fantastic four/ punishers.

 

[terry78]

See, the walking tree and cockney raccoon will definitely bring in the kids. Gamora will bring the dads.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

But Gamora definitely won't be wearing anything revealing like in the comics. I'm guessing they'll dress her like a warrior princess.

Rocket will likely be targeted to younger demographic but Groot is still Groot.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Superman is viewed as a boring, out of touch hero. Not only is not cool, unlike characters like Batman, Iron Man & Wolverine, but he's the opposite of cool. He's a boy scout. Argue all you want over whether the character is actually like that or not, but that's the public perception of him. It is an enormous uphill battle to fight that and would make it very difficult for any solo Superman film to do gangbusters these days.

Batman had the same issue after Batman and Robin. He was seen a character who's popular outside of animated shows was on the decline with WB having no idea what to do with the character, along with Superman. Luckily, Batman got Christopher Nolan to take over their franchise. They thought giving the series to Bryan Singer would do the same for them, but if I'm going to be honest, I don't think Singer does that well with big scope action movies. His X-men movies, while good, felt too isolated and made the mutant population feel small in comparison to the comics or other different mediums. I do not think that Man of Steel will make a billion but if it is really good (like 90% on RT and A cinemascore good), and it gets marketed well, I would not say it's not possible at all that it wouldn't make a billion, especially with 3D and an increased international presence.

And with Snyder directing, you know the movie will have action and it won't disappoint like Singer did.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

It wasn't quite as bad with Batman. The issue with that franchise was never really the character itself being viewed as being boring, but people taking issues with the lighter and softer approach and general crummy quality of his films. They were still skeptical when Batman Begins came out, but because it was a great film they came back relatively quickly. With Superman the problem runs deeper than just the last few Superman films being terrible. I think it will take quite the effort to win enough of the audience to put up Batman numbers. Either that or wait long enough for people's tastes to change. Noble and heroic is out right now. Dark and/or snarky is in. That won't last forever.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

I don't think the problem is as bad as you're making it out to be. Superman Returns was an average movie and the box office reflected that. Not to mention it still made more than Batman Begins internationally.

Even though it did cost more, I think you're underestimating how popular a character Superman is.

 

[Marvin]

It wasn't quite as bad with Batman. The issue with that franchise was never really the character itself being viewed as being boring, but people taking issues with the lighter and softer approach and general crummy quality of his films. They were still skeptical when Batman Begins came out, but because it was a great film they came back relatively quickly. With Superman the problem runs deeper than just the last few Superman films being terrible. I think it will take quite the effort to win enough of the audience to put up Batman numbers. Either that or wait long enough for people's tastes to change. Noble and heroic is out right now. Dark and/or snarky is in. That won't last forever.

You've been making alot of sense.
However I won't describe nolan's batman as dark and or snarky, that would be more Miller's work or even Watchmen or something like the pitch black movies. If anything Nolans batman is a fluent idealist and noble hero. His entire interaction with Harvey Dent is a testament to this single fact.

His villains(well the one real villain he faced) I'd consider dark and snarky but superman can have that too.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

I don't think the problem is as bad as you're making it out to be. Superman Returns was an average movie and the box office reflected that. Not to mention it still made more than Batman Begins internationally.

Superman Returns had the advantage of being the first Superman films in two decades. The stench of Superman IV was not hanging over it the same way Batman & Robin was over Batman Begins. And despite that handicap, Batman Begins still did better domestically than Superman Returns.

Even though it did cost more, I think you're underestimating how popular a character Superman is.

I hope I'm wrong since I like the character, but I've seen so many people complain about how dull, boring, and too goody-goody Superman is that I think it is a legitimate problem.

I've heard the same thing about Captain America and his movie didn't do as well as the more marketable Iron Man or Thor.

 

[Bruce Malone]

You're wrong about any stench from superman IV on returns. Barely anyone even saw that film and it was released some 18 years or so before returns was. So it had no real effect on it.

Superman Returns under-performed due to aside from not being a very good movie had the job of reserecting the superman character as something relevant to modern audiences. It didn't do a great job at that. So now that burden falls on MOS.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Sorry, that was a typo. I meant to say it was not hanging over it. I'll fix it.

 

[Evil Twin]

And yet, Superman Returns still made more than Thor, Wolverine, X-Men: First Class, and Captain America domestically. Films all considered successful. Without inflation working in its favor.

Make a good movie, and people will see a Superman movie. Heck, people have kept Superman alive on television regularly since the 1980s. Smallville's only been off the air one year, after all. There's been hundreds of hours of live action Superman the past few decades, so that speaks well to the fact that people still like watching the adventures of Superman.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

You're wrong about any stench from superman IV on returns. Barely anyone even saw that film and it was released some 18 years or so before returns was. So it had no real effect on it.

Superman Returns under-performed due to aside from not being a very good movie had the job of reserecting the superman character as something relevant to modern audiences. It didn't do a great job at that. So now that burden falls on MOS.

Agreed. In addition to underwhelming action and plot points, SR also relied too much on nostalgia. Sometimes nostalgia and being a huge fan of a franchise can hurt it. John Carter (especially marketing wise in which Stanton had complete control) is another huge example.

Superman Returns had the advantage of being the first Superman films in two decades. The stench of Superman IV was not hanging over it the same way Batman & Robin was over Batman Begins. And despite that handicap, Batman Begins still did better domestically than Superman Returns.

True, and agreed.

I hope I'm wrong since I like the character, but I've seen so many people complain about how dull, boring, and too goody-goody Superman is that I think it is a legitimate problem.

I've heard the same thing about Captain America and his movie didn't do as well as the more marketable Iron Man or Thor.

Ill give you Iron Man, but Thor had the advantage of having no real competition at all for not one, but 2 weeks. If Captain America had that same spot instead of being sandwiched between the lat Harry Potter movie and a movie with James Bond and Indiana Jones (Cowboys and Aliens), it's box office returns would have been much higher, at least domestically. I think for a movie that was good, not great and considering the circumstances of the release (which makes April a good time for the Cap sequel), Captain America did pretty well.

As of right now, Man of Steel's competition is decent, but not as bad as what Cap had. I still expect it to get at least ASM type numbers at least if it's good.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Cowboy and Aliens did terrible.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

It still took a chunk out of the profits of Captain America due to appealing to similar audiences.

 

[Gianakin_]

Nmd

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Yeah. I'll fix that.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It still took a chunk out of the profits of Captain America due to appealing to similar audiences.

What did it take repeat viewers or people who were never going to watch Cap anyways? One you are assuming that people go to the movies no matter what and the others you are assuming it somehow stopped people from seeing it again. Not sure how you figure that.

 

[Evil Twin]

Captain America had a totally acceptable opening weekend multiplier of 2.7.

Considering it was the 4th superhero film of the summer, that's right in line with expectations. If anything took a chunk of Captain America's box office it was Rise of the Planet of the Apes by being a better movie.

 

[marvelman2006]

Yeah rise of the apes did some big business when it came out and no offense but Cap from the trailers and tv spots didnt exactly grab people to come see it.