2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

[Liam_H]

Go to deadline, predicting $36 million Friday so far. Don't believe the OW total based on a Friday like that, Nikki is completely wrong as usual.

http://www.deadline.com/2012/12/the...dnight-u-s-canada-opening-sets-december-mark/

 

[Ultimatehero]

The latest from my sources has The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey looking around $36M and $90M-$105M for the weekend. Those are two records shattered – biggest December Friday and biggest December weekend for the domestic box office.

http://www.deadline.com/2012/12/the...dnight-u-s-canada-opening-sets-december-mark/

So, um, where is the 'bad' part exactly? Making a new december Friday record is now a bad thing??? Same with weekend. Am I living in bizarro world or something lol? Typically when a film smashes records and gets more money than its predecessor - its seen as a good thing.

 

[Liam_H]

Did you not see the part where I said don't believe the opening weekend total if that Friday number holds. Nikki will be wrong with that kind of multiplier. Its going to be around $75-80 million weekend finish if it holds.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Dude, with every report saying its going to be the top grossing LOTR film and you just posting a link to a professional source that says the same exact thing with it smashing two records this weekend? I think I'll go with the widely accepted professional outlook than a singular one on here no offense. I just have not seen anything go against the professional trades so far other than "I don't think so."

 

[Liam_H]

Every Lord of the Rings film opened on a Wednesday. ROTK still grossed $72 million in its 3 days when demand had been burned off by the 2 days prior.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Then you're saying you really can't say anything until the monday and tuesday grosses have additionally come in? Sounds fair enough.

 

[:eek:]

Saturday (12/15) Update:
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey continues to dominate with $29.6m from 18,200 screens in 56 markets, for a running tally of $57m.

Top Territories: UK – 70% market share. £2.5m (US$4.1m) from 601 situations. The running cume is now £4.6m (US$7.4m).
Germany – Friday pulled in €2.4m (US$3.1m) from 1,332 screens with a 63% market share, bringing the running cume to €5.5m (US$7.1m).
Spain – €1.8m (US$2.4m) from 1,052 screens, taking 72% share of the market. France – €1.5m (US$1.9m) with 200k admissions from 958 screens, bringing the 3 day cume to €4.3m (US$5.5m) with 577k admissions.
Brazil – excellent #'s at R$3.2m (US$1.5m) from 969 screens, taking 61% market share.
Korea – Friday numbers continue to be outstanding, coming in at KRW 1.6b (US$1.5m) from 1,200 screens, ranking a strong #1. The 2 day running cume is now KRW 2.9b (US$2.7m).
Mexico – fantastic Ps.18m (US$1.4m) from 2,414 screens, dominating the market with a 66% box office share and ranking as the best opening day ever in December.

 

[rashad]

Weekend Estimates
http://boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/

 

[terry78]

Jesus, that's a massive uptake from the previous weeks.

 

[kedrell]

Looks like Skyfall is soon to beat Twilight5 domestic.

 

[Evil Twin]

From what I can tell, The Hobbit has attendance comparable to The Two Towers and an "A" cinemascore. And it's doing great overseas as well. It's going to be well over $200 million domestic by the end of Christmas, maybe over $300 million by then.

The only question is where it settles in over $1 billion worldwide.

 

[kedrell]

Will Skyfall manage to get past the $1B WW total? Looks very possible to me.

 

[Marvin]

Hobbit(with it's lack of ending) I assume is and somewhat positive word of mouth/critical reception is not going anywhere near ROTK totals.
This should be interesting though.

 

[Marvin]

hobbit's worldwide opening just goes to show how crazy an accomplishment avenger's domestic opening really was.

 

[Liam_H]

Skyfall's march towards $1 billion worldwide continues. I think it'll hit that mark even without China. But once it does TDKR look out.

 

[Marvin]

Not sure about that film, but if it overtakes TDKR...
I remember when James Cameron first hit that number...now it's atleast 2 films a year.

Though I do wonder about next year.
The last trek movie didn't do all that well, and MoS is a box office mystery.
Pre-avengers ironman did struggled to do spiderman money. PRim isn't doing it.

Next year may be strong but does it have any killer apps?

 

[Spideyfan93]

1: Star Trek made a ridiculous amount of money, much more than most expected.
2: Iron Man, for being a newly introduced cinematic hero at the time, made more than it had business making.

 

[Liam_H]

There will be, movies surprise every year.

I believe IM3 and TH: DoS are the most likely choices to hit that number. Catching Fire could expand its audience like the first Twilight sequel did. I don't see Pacific Rim either but it could pull a TF, especially with the Asian market backing it.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Mark my words Star Trek 2 will atleast make 2.5 times. the 127Mil the first one did overseas. If it's good and marketed well I see 325 to 350mil domestically.

 

[Bruce Malone]

For start trek i see a big up-tick in overseas gross but not that much more domestically.

 

[Iron_Stark]

Star Trek isn't going to make Star Wars type numbers.

 

[Evil Twin]

Honestly, I think the "mystery box" marketing is going to backfire on Star Trek. The general public doesn't know who Benedict Cumberbatch is and keeping the villain, and story, a secret while highlighting that they're cribbing notes from The Dark Knight isn't likely to get people excited about the movie on its own terms. All their selling with their obsession with mystery is spectacle, and any big budget movie can sell spectacle.

It will still be a success, especially overseas, but I can't imagine that a mystery that no one but hardcore Trek fans cares about, is the best way to go about marketing a movie to the masses.

I'll be interested in how Iron Man does post-Avengers. I imagine it will get a boost, but I can't imagine it will be be in the range of the Avengers.

 

[Marvin]

Mark my words Star Trek 2 will atleast make 2.5 times. the 127Mil the first one did overseas. If it's good and marketed well I see 325 to 350mil domestically.

it would be hard not too

The first one made like 380 world wide no? If it simply doubled that it would be around ASM numbers...which aren't all that celebrated...compared to the films above it this year and it's own pantheon There are some here who might say that's great for StarTrek, and they may be right, but considering that's supposedly one of the big ones next year(some say the biggest), just look where we were at this point last year. Avengers/TDKR..etc were the big ones. Trek can't be the new "big".
3D alone should help.

Maybe that's why JJ is pulling yet another mystery with the marketing, can star trek only make so much on it's own?

 

[Ultimatehero]

To the masses before JJ's 'Star Trek' it was seen as "how that's just that old franchise which wasn't as action packed as Star Wars!" I would know, I was among them. Then 'Star Trek' came and surprised people by actually being really something cool. That's why there were all those Star Wars comparisons back then. Thus, this Trek will perform differently and more like a sequel to a first film everyone liked than a Trek film. JJ knew what many people thought of the franchise and threw that notion out the window, now its about building something new.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

it would be hard not too

The first one made like 380 world wide no? If it simply doubled that it would be around ASM numbers...which aren't all that celebrated...compared to the films above it this year and it's own pantheon There are some here who might say that's great for StarTrek, and they may be right, but considering that's supposedly one of the big ones next year(some say the biggest), just look where we were at this point last year. Avengers/TDKR..etc were the big ones. Trek can't be the new "big"._
3D alone should help.

Maybe that's why JJ is pulling yet another mystery with the marketing, can star trek only make so much on it's own?

I don't know who those some you are talking about the Hunger Games made under 700mil worldwide and everyone is calling it a raving success.

I don't even understand any of the comments against my prediction in order to refute them. All I can say is that my prediction is based on me assuming that the film is good and will have good marketing to go along with the good reception of the first movie. I could be dead wrong but those are my predictions for now.

If Star Trek makes over 600mil it's going to be seen as a big success. A movie doesn't have to make a billion to be seen as a hit.