2013: The Re-Up (box office predictions) - Part 1

[jacobed]

I knew Kick-Ass 2 was going to fall from the first one. I was thinking 15-17mil instead of 13.58mil but I knew that it was not going to match or exceed the opening weekend gross of the original. And that Friday to Saturday drop is disastrous. I think the studio is over estimating that Sunday drop so I see it actually doing 13.2-13.4mil.

The Kick-Ass phenomenon was always a media and fanboy creation, those are the only people who love the first film. Hell even the first film didn't live up to all the media hype as it only opened with 19.8mil and ended with 48mil. There were no new openers vying for Kick-Ass 2's audience and it still couldn't hit 15mil.

It's not going to lose any money because it is low budget but unless it does exceptionally well overseas for the type of film it is all the bloom is off of this franchise. I know I'm kinda ranting but this rant was 3 years in the making. I wonder if a 3rd will be made?

The Butler did well, better than I thought it would. I think it looks lousy but go black people.

We're the Millers is doing great. I'm thinking it's going to pass the Hang Over 3 and be the second highest grossing comedy of the Summer...domestically.

Elysium's drop is lame and disappointing which is kinda fitting because the movie was lame and disappointing.

Don't care about Planes and Percy Jackson will drop like all get out when all the tweens see The Mortal Instruments. I still don't think it's going to do great but it's probably going to do well enough to hurt Percy. Domestically even if Percy isn't hurt by the latest Tween film it's still not going to do as well as the first film.

Jobs had a low budget so it's not really a failure but it's not a success either. It looked terrible and was starring Kelso so it's lucky it did that well. That 3.5mil for Paranoia is humorously disastrous. Even a generic movie like it should have hit 8mil, especially with all the marketing that went into it.

The Wolverine only did okay here in the states. It stopped the bleeding this weekend, which is good but it's too late. Fox should take the performance of the film in the states to heart and not just pimp Wolverine during the promotion of the next film.

I agree with all of this. I think there will be a Kick Ass 3. They're cheap to make, they've both been pretty good and Millar and Vaughn have some clout over at Fox

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Thanks for appreciating my analysis but I don't think a sequel it's set in stone. They will have to lower the budget if they do make a sequel because a 3rd is guaranteed to do worse domestically.

Personally I didn't like Kick-Ass and the dismally reviewed sequel wasn't going to get my money if I didn't even like the well reviewed one with the better director. I am happy for the fans who enjoyed the films but I'm still annoyed at the over the top coverage of such a niche franchise.

 

[MrMaooz]

Will all this flopping mean more mid budget flicks?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

^I hope so. Filmmakers are more creative, interesting when they don't have money to burn.

BTW, After a lousy first quarter Warners really had a very good summer. The Great Gatsby, Man of Steel, The Conjuring, We're the Millers. All hits and only two of them had big budgets.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Well, at least Thor TDW won't have stiff competitive cuz it appears low budget and superhero/CBM fatigue is setting in.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Well, at least Thor TDW won't have stiff competitive cuz it appears low budget and superhero/CBM fatigue is setting in.

People always say this after a lukewarm comic book year (like 2011), then the next year completely blows those assertions.

 

[terry78]

You can't predict this stuff as accurately as you used to.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

There is no Superhero movie fatigue. People say this every other year.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

People always say this after a lukewarm comic book year (like 2011), then the next year completely blows those assertions.

This was a lukewarm comic book year? One of those comic book movies grossed over 1.2 billion dollars this year.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

People have their standards way too high. Iron Man 3 made good numbers. Man of Steel making a billion was always just talk and the movie grossed big numbers (not as big WB wants once again), and The Wolverine is an example of franchise fatigue especially when his first solo movie was terrible. Days of Future past will be the move to test X-Men's popular that will either disappoint or get the X-Men franchise back to it's highs of popularity.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

A third in a series grossed over a billion and a reboot grossed 650mil and we are suffering from comicbook movie fatigue??? I wish we were because I want different kinds of movies but we aren't.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

People always say this after a lukewarm comic book year (like 2011), then the next year completely blows those assertions.

To be honest, if you have 5-6 CBMs a year there'll be some sort of fatigue. As of right now, the genre isn't being affected that greatly yet.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

This was a lukewarm comic book year? One of those comic book movies grossed over 1.2 billion dollars this year.

True. I guess Wolverine was the only one that disappointed. Depending on one's perception. It still made back its modest budget I think.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

The Wolverine never really seemed to generate much buzz in the months prior to release. It was always the forgotten comic book film of the year. Thor received more hype and it isn't out for months.

 

[Liam_H]

Still quite successful considering its budget.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Yeah, there's no fatigue at all.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Still quite successful considering its budget.

Well that's good, since I also think it might be the best superhero film of the summer.

 

[MadVillainy]

Well, at least Thor TDW won't have stiff competitive cuz it appears low budget and superhero/CBM fatigue is setting in.

Not at all. I dont think there is any evidence of this

There is no Superhero movie fatigue. People say this every other year.

This.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Yeah, there's no fatigue at all.

2015 will be a great test. No genre is untouchable after all.

Take a look at the UFC. Oversaturation has caused the company's popularity to plateau. More isn't always better.

 

[Liam_H]

It depends on CB movies that people want to see. Avengers 2, Batman/Superman etc. Don't think anyone cares for a FF reboot at this point.

 

[Heretic]

It isn't superhero fatigue...it's blockbuster fatigue...and the studios are pumping out more and more superhero "blockbusters." I love Sci-Fi, Horror and fantasy movies...and I haven't bothered to see over half the genre films that have been released to theaters. People can't get excited about movies when we are being told that we should be excited about 2 films per week. Heck, we just went a THREE WEEK period with FIVE comic book based movies released!!! I just can't care enough about that many movies to spend that much money. It doesn't help that the best movies I've seen this year have been straight to DVD films. The constant hype for dozens of films is starting to wear thin, and if people aren't genuinely excited, they are staying home.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I hated how many movies came out this summer. There were way too many films and that's why we have seen so many disappointments and flops. People are not made of money. I guess the studios won't care because this will be a record summer for the box office.

 

[jmc]

I'm kinda not surprised at Kick-Ass 2 failing to be honest. There was a certain novelty factor with the first film that I don't think was ever going to be replicated. The idea of a satire of the superhero genre as well as an 11 year old going around and killing people was enough to get my money first time around. The fact the sequel isn't a satire and said 11 year old is now bordering on becoming a young adult kinda takes away that novelty. It comes out here this week and I'll probably end up seeing it because I almost feel obligated due to how much I enjoyed the first film.

 

[MrMaooz]

Sorry, but I don't think there is Superhero fatigue, at all.

 

[jmc]

It will happen eventually.