2013: The Re-Up (box office predictions) - Part 1

[Shifty]

It's too bad July 2013 will lag behind last year's July earnings. Pacific Rim just didn't turn into that massive hit WB was hoping for. While The Conjuring will be a moneymaker, thanks to it costing a fraction of PC's production budget, I don't think it'll be a big juggernaut.

Maybe it's time WB should rethink their summer blockbuster playbook, since Alan Horn and Jeff Robinov were ousted.

Legendary was behind Pacific Rim, they financed the majority of that film and will take the most of the loss. That was mentioned when the Legendary/Universal deal was announced, that it isn't the worst thing for WB.

 

[rashad]

Weekend Estimates (July 26-28)
http://boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/

2013 WORLDWIDE GROSSES
http://boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?view2=worldwide&yr=2013&p=.htm

 

[Marvin]

Would have been a great month for a singular block buster to dominate.

 

[Evil Twin]

It's really not been a good summer to be in the live action tentpole business. Way too much was spent on a lot of films that will be moderately profitable at best. When Lucas and Spielberg were talking about studios collapsing because of a couple of tentpoles in a row failing, this summer seems to be a small scale warning.

God help the studios if 2015 doesn't see a significant bump in worldwide attendance.

 

[Marvin]

It's really not been a good summer to be in the live action tentpole business. Way too much was spent on a lot of films that will be moderately profitable at best. When Lucas and Spielberg were talking about studios collapsing because of a couple of tentpoles in a row failing, this summer seems to be a small scale warning.

God help the studios if 2015 doesn't see a significant bump in worldwide attendance.

2015 looks to be exactly like this year.
A hand full of big heavy hitters and a crap load of high and low profile under performers.

Same old story.

 

[:eek:]

Top 20 worldwide

1. Iron Man 3 $1212 million
2. Fast & Furious 6 $741,2 million
3. Despicable Me 2 $663,6 million
4. Man of Steel $644 million
5. The Croods $582,7 million
6. Monsters University $577,5 million
7. Oz The Great and Powerful $491,9 million
8. World War Z $473,4 million
9. Star Trek Into Darkness $450,2 million
10. G.I. Joe: Retaliation $371,9 million
11. The Hangover Part III $350,8 million
12. The Great Gatsby $330,4 million
13. A Good Day to Die Hard $304,7 million
14. Oblivion $286,2 million
15. Epic $243,4 million
16. After Earth $235,9 million
17. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters $225,7 million
18. Pacific Rim $225,2 million
19. Now You See Me $212,6 million
20. Journey to the West: Conquering the Demons $207,9 million

 

[jacobed]

Really surprised by how well 2 Guns and Wolverine are doing and how bad Smurfs 2 is doing

 

[:eek:]

Really surprised by how well 2 Guns and Wolverine are doing and how bad Smurfs 2 is doing

Well, the original Smurfs was more of an international hit, so it will be the same again with the sequel

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Really surprised by how well 2 Guns and Wolverine are doing and how bad Smurfs 2 is doing

The woed of mouth is healthy on the Wolverine.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Are you guys kidding with Wolverine? A 69% drop isn't good at all.

 

[Liam_H]

69% is deceiving since that's only for the Friday number. It should be more like 61-63% for the weekend.

 

[rayc1971]

the smurfs didn't do that great domesctically so not surprised by part 2 underperforming as well.i think there was too much animated films this summer look at turbo and smurfs2 not doing well we had monster u-the croods-depictable me2 just to many jammed in one summer.

 

[MrMaooz]

Do you guys think Percy Jackson will flop?

 

[rashad]

2013 Worldwide Grosses
http://boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?view2=worldwide&yr=2013&p=.htm

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

69% is deceiving since that's only for the Friday number. It should be more like 61-63% for the weekend.

You're right about that. It actually went to 59%. I jumped the gun there.

 

[:eek:]

Top 20 worldwide

1. Iron Man 3 $1212,3 million
2. Fast & Furious 6 $771,2 million
3. Despicable Me 2 $715 million
4. Man of Steel $647,3 million
5. Monsters University $613,7 million
6. The Croods $582,9 million
7. Oz The Great and Powerful $491,9 million
8. World War Z $488,7 million
9. Star Trek Into Darkness $450,9 million
10. G.I. Joe: Retaliation $371,9 million
11. The Hangover Part III $350,9 million
12. The Great Gatsby $330,7 million
13. A Good Day to Die Hard $304,7 million
14. Pacific Rim $294 million
15. Oblivion $286,2 million
16. The Wolverine $256,3 million
17. Epic $245 million
18. After Earth $242,5 million
19. Now You See Me $233,1 million
20. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters $225,7 million

 

[terry78]

I just realized how crowded this weekend is. Elysium, Planes, Percy Jackson, We're the Millers...somebody is gonna fall.

 

[:eek:]

Top 20 worldwide

1. Iron Man 3 $1212,4 million
2. Fast & Furious 6 $782,5 million
3. Despicable Me 2 $749,4 million
4. Man of Steel $648,3 million
5. Monsters University $637,2 million
6. The Croods $583,1 million
7. World War Z $502,8 million
8. Oz The Great and Powerful $491,9 million
9. Star Trek Into Darkness $452,1 million
10. G.I. Joe: Retaliation $371,9 million
11. The Hangover Part III $351 million
12. Pacific Rim $344,4 million
13. The Great Gatsby $330,9 million
14. The Wolverine $307,7 million
15. A Good Day to Die Hard $304,7 million
16. Oblivion $286,2 million
17. Now You See Me $255,8 million
18. Epic $249,2 million
19. After Earth $244,6 million
20. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters $225,7 million

 

[MadVillainy]

Title Weekend Total
1. Lee Daniels’ The Butler $25,010,000 $25
2. We’re the Millers $17,780,000 $69.5
3. Elysium $13,600,00 $55.9
4. Kick-Ass 2 $13,568,000 $13.5
5. Planes $13,141,000 $45
6. Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters $8,375,000 $38.9
7. Jobs $6,700,000 $6.7
8. 2 Guns $5,600,000 $59.2
9. The Smurfs 2 $4,600,000 $56.9
10. The Wolverine $4,425,000 $120.4

http://collider.com/weekend-box-off...-25-million-debut-kick-ass-2-falls-to-fourth/

Damn Kick Ass... and wow Wolverine is already about to be out of the top 10

 

[Octoberist]

Congrats to The Butler.

But maybe it's just me, but I can feel the collective fatigue coming from the public in the types of movies they want and are sick of. Many of these films should do a lot better, and that includes Percy Jackson, Kick-Ass, The Smurfs 2, and even The Wolverine (Thank God it made it's money back. But it's not the big hit that Fox probably wanted.)

Elysium is doing fine and will probably hit past it's budget and Planes is so low budget that no matter what, it's a success story.

 

[MadVillainy]

Congrats to The Butler.

But maybe it's just me, but I can feel the collective fatigue coming from the public in the types of movies they want and are sick of. Many of these films should do a lot better, and that includes Percy Jackson, Kick-Ass, The Smurfs 2, and even The Wolverine (Thank God it made it's money back. But it's not the big hit that Fox probably wanted.)

Elysium is doing fine and will probably hit past it's budget and Planes is so low budget that no matter what, it's a success story.

I suppose.

I think it's also because it's later in the summer. I think people might just be burnt out because the summer is coming to an end and unless it's a big even movie (like for example TDKR last year) people dont feel like spending the money. Or at least that's my guess. I think Percy Jackson and Kick Ass wouldve done better if they were released in months similar to the first film's release dates.

As for the WOlverine and X-Men in general, I can see FOX rebooting if DOFP does domestic numbers similar to THe WOlverine (which I dont think it will). The Wolverine has made good money but dont studios not see as much money from international ticket sales as they do domestic? Idk just speculating

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I knew Kick-Ass 2 was going to fall from the first one. I was thinking 15-17mil instead of 13.58mil but I knew that it was not going to match or exceed the opening weekend gross of the original. And that Friday to Saturday drop is disastrous. I think the studio is over estimating that Sunday drop so I see it actually doing 13.2-13.4mil.

The Kick-Ass phenomenon was always a media and fanboy creation, those are the only people who love the first film. Hell even the first film didn't live up to all the media hype as it only opened with 19.8mil and ended with 48mil. There were no new openers vying for Kick-Ass 2's audience and it still couldn't hit 15mil.

It's not going to lose any money because it is low budget but unless it does exceptionally well overseas for the type of film it is all the bloom is off of this franchise. I know I'm kinda ranting but this rant was 3 years in the making. I wonder if a 3rd will be made?

The Butler did well, better than I thought it would. I think it looks lousy but go black people.

We're the Millers is doing great. I'm thinking it's going to pass the Hang Over 3 and be the second highest grossing comedy of the Summer...domestically.

Elysium's drop is lame and disappointing which is kinda fitting because the movie was lame and disappointing.

Don't care about Planes and Percy Jackson will drop like all get out when all the tweens see The Mortal Instruments. I still don't think it's going to do great but it's probably going to do well enough to hurt Percy. Domestically even if Percy isn't hurt by the latest Tween film it's still not going to do as well as the first film.

Jobs had a low budget so it's not really a failure but it's not a success either. It looked terrible and was starring Kelso so it's lucky it did that well. That 3.5mil for Paranoia is humorously disastrous. Even a generic movie like it should have hit 8mil, especially with all the marketing that went into it.

The Wolverine only did okay here in the states. It stopped the bleeding this weekend, which is good but it's too late. Fox should take the performance of the film in the states to heart and not just pimp Wolverine during the promotion of the next film.

 

[matrix_ghost]

http://collider.com/weekend-box-off...-25-million-debut-kick-ass-2-falls-to-fourth/

Damn Kick Ass... and wow Wolverine is already about to be out of the top 10

About 2 weeks ago Wolverine lost 1000 screens so that significantly had an impact on its boxoffice performance.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottme...ce-elysium-debuts-to-30-5m-planes-opens-soft/


Weré the Millers had a good chance of hitting 100 million domestic which along with The Conjuring definately can be called one of the more profitable movies of WB this summer.

 

[Octoberist]

wait why did Wolverine lose so much screens like that? That's weird!

Then again, it seems like Fox almost forgotten all about Wolverine and rooting for 'Days of Futures Past'. I think there was more hype for a movie that is due next Summer than the movie that they had out now. That being the Wolverine.

 

[Liam_H]

The Wolverine lost so many screens because there has been so many new wide releases. Smaller theaters have to make room, and TW isn't going to be bringing in as much money in its 3rd/4th weekend compared to the new openers.

Also in Pacific Rim news for those who care, it has just passed $100M in China this weekend. Its gonna make more there than domestically, not often you see that happening.