2013: The Re-Up (box office predictions) - Part 1

[:eek:]

Lionsgate doesn't open The Hunger Games: Catching Fire until November 22, but the highly-anticipated sequel is already enticing fans to scoop up tickets early via Fandango. The ticketing site reports that Catching Fire is off to an excellent start.
The official release from Fandango:
(LOS ANGELES - October 2, 2013) - Fandango, the nation's leading moviegoer destination, reports that fan fever is spreading for Lionsgate's (NYSE: LGF) The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. Despite the nearly two-month wait before the movie hits theaters on November 22nd, voracious The Hunger Games fans have been scooping up the tickets at www.fandango.com/catchingfire.

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire tickets went on sale on October 1, 2013 at 9:00 a.m. PT, and by day's end, the highly-anticipated thriller saw the following achievements on Fandango:

· The Hunger Games: Catching Fire represented 70% of Tuesday's sales;
· The film outsold all current releases by 8 to 1;
· The film is already outpacing Fandango's presales of all previous wide releases 50 days before release date.

"The Hunger Games: Catching Fire was voted by filmgoers as Fandango's most anticipated movie of the year," says Paul Yanover, President of Fandango, "and the excitement is certainly reflected by Fandango's amazing first-day ticket sales for the film."

 

[:eek:]

International top ten 27-29 september

1. Young Detective Dee: Rise of the Sea Dragon $17 million
2. Runner Runner $11,9 million
3. Instructions not Included $9,4 million
4. The Smurfs 2 $8,7 million
5. We're the Millers $7,9 million
6. Planes $7,9 million
7. The Conjuring $7,5 million
8. Elysium $7,3 million
9. 2 Guns $6,4 million
10. White House Down $5,9 million

 

[:eek:]

Top 20 worldwide

1. Iron Man 3 $1214,7 million
2. Despicable Me 2 $872,9 million
3. Fast & Furious 6 $788,7 million
4. Monsters University $736,9 million
5. Man of Steel $662,8 million
6. The Croods $585,2 million
7. World War Z $539,6 million
8. Oz The Great and Powerful $493,3 million
9. Star Trek Into Darkness $467 million
10. Pacific Rim $407,5 million
11. The Wolverine $374,4 million
12. G.I. Joe: Retaliation $371,9 million
13. The Hangover Part III $351 million
14. The Great Gatsby $348,8 million
15. The Smurfs 2 $331,2 million
16. Now You See Me $323,9 million
17. The Conjuring $305,4 million
18. A Good Day to Die Hard $304,7 million
19. Oblivion $286,2 million
20. Elysium $272,7 million

 

[:eek:]

International top ten 4-6 October

1. Gravity $28,4 million
2. Young Detective Dee: Rise of the Sea Dragon $19,5 million
3. Turbo $9,5 million
4. Insidious: Chapter 2 $9 million
5. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 $7,9 million
6. Runner Runner $7,5 million
7. Rush $7,5 million
8. The Lone Ranger $7 million
9. Inferno 3D $6,5 million
10. The Smurfs 2 $6,4 million

 

[:eek:]

Top 20 worldwide

1. Iron Man 3 $1214,7 million
2. Despicable Me 2 $885,3 million
3. Fast & Furious 6 $788,7 million
4. Monsters University $737,4 million
5. Man of Steel $662,8 million
6. The Croods $585,2 million
7. World War Z $540 million
8. Oz The Great and Powerful $493,3 million
9. Star Trek Into Darkness $467,4 million
10. Pacific Rim $407,6 million
11. G.I. Joe: Retaliation $375,7 million
12. The Wolverine $374,7 million
13. The Hangover Part III $351 million
14. The Great Gatsby $348,8 million
15. The Smurfs 2 $337,5 million
16. Now You See Me $333 million
17. The Conjuring $309,9 million
18. A Good Day to Die Hard $304,7 million
19. Oblivion $286,2 million
20. Elysium $277 million

 

[:eek:]

International top ten 11-13 October

1. Gravity $28,5 million
2. Stalingrad $17,3 million
3. Despicable Me 2 $11 million
4. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 $9,2 million
5. Prisoners $8,6 million
6. Now You See Me $8,2 million
7. Insidious: Chapter 2 $7,5 million
8. Planes $6,2 million
9. Young Detective Dee: Rise of the Sea Dragon $6 million
10. Rush $6 million

 

[:eek:]

FORECAST: Marvel's 'Thor: The Dark World' Pacing Toward $90+ Million Debut in November

http://www.boxoffice.com/latest-news/2013-10-18-thor-the-dark-world-poised-for-90-million-debut

 

[:eek:]

Top 20 worldwide

1. Iron Man 3 $1214,7 million
2. Despicable Me 2 $898,5 million
3. Fast & Furious 6 $788,7 million
4. Monsters University $737,9 million
5. Man of Steel $662,8 million
6. The Croods $585,2 million
7. World War Z $540 million
8. Oz The Great and Powerful $493,3 million
9. Star Trek Into Darkness $467,4 million
10. Pacific Rim $407,6 million
11. The Wolverine $389,3 million
12. G.J. Joe: Retaliation $375,7 million
13. The Hangover Part III $351 million
14. The Great Gatsby $348,8 million
15. The Smurfs 2 $337,8 million
16. Now You See Me $333 million
17. The Conjuring $309,9 million
18. A Good Day to Die Hard $304,7 million
19. Gravity $286,2 million
20. Oblivion $286,2 million

 

[:eek:]

International top ten 18-20 October

1. Gravity $33,5 million
2. The Wolverine $17,6 million
3. Turbo $16,5 million
4. Stalingrad $12,6 million
5. Special ID $10,9 million
6. Escape Plan $9,4 million
7. Captain Phillips $9,3 million
8. Despicable Me 2 $8,3 million
9. Prisoners $7,3 million
10. Insidious: Chapter 2 $6,5 million

 

[:eek:]

Top 20 worldwide

1. Iron Man 3 $1215,4 million
2. Despicable Me 2 $906,3 million
3. Fast & Furious 6 $788,7 million
4. Monsters University $742,9 million
5. Man of Steel $662,8 million
6. The Croods $587,2 million
7. World War Z $540 million
8. Oz The Great and Powerful $493,3 million
9. Star Trek Into Darkness $467,4 million
10. Pacific Rim $407,6 million
11. The Wolverine $405,8 million
12. G.J. Joe: Retaliation $375,7 million
13. Gravity $365,6 million
14. Now You See Me $351,7 million
15. The Hangover Part III $351 million
16. The Great Gatsby $348,8 million
17. The Smurfs 2 $342,6 million
18. The Conjuring $312,5 million
19. A Good Day to Die Hard $304,7 million
20. Oblivion $286,2 million

 

[:eek:]

International top ten 25-27 October

1. Gravity $37,7 million
2. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 $16,9 million
3. Turbo $14,3 million
4. Captain Phillips $12,5 million
5. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa $8,1 million
6. Escape Plan $7 million
7. The Wolverine $6,7 million
8. Stalingrad $6 million
9. Now You See Me $5,6 million
10. Prisoners $5,1 million

 

[MrMaooz]

What numbers do you guys predict for the Winter releases?

 

[:eek:]

‘Hunger Games 2: Catching Fire’ Tracking New November Record: Hot $140M-$150M

By NIKKI FINKE, Editor in Chief | Thursday October 31, 2013 @ 8:40am
The 2nd installment of The Hunger Games film trilogy based on American writer Suzanne Collins’ bestselling books came on tracking this morning. Lionsgate’s Catching Fire three weeks out is currently looking to open with $140M to $150M in North American weekend gross. That should target the first installment’s opening of $152.5M and beat the recordholder for November, The Twilight Saga: New Moon at $142.8M. Three weeks out, Catching Fire has 11% unaided awareness, the same as New Moon. However, Catching Fire‘s first choice at 27% is 10 points ahead of where New Moon was three weeks out. “Which we hope suggests upside in a crowded November marketplace with Thor and Frozen,” an insider tells me. Of course, tracking has been very unreliable this year and may not be an accurate measure of the film’s domestic box office prospects. The movie will be released in November 22nd. Gary Ross, director of the first Hunger Games installment, did not return to direct and was replaced by Francis Lawrence. Pic stars Jennifer Lawrence, Josh Hutcherson, and Liam Hemsworth. The first installment of The Hunger Games was released in March 2012 and earned $408M domestic all in, for a worldwide total of $691M.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

The Wrap says Catching Fire tracking to do 185mil. I don't see it opening with less than the first. I'm predicting 165-170mil right now and 375-385mil total.

As for the other films; I think Ender's Game is doing 30-35mil this weekend with 90-110mil total. I'm predicting Thor: The Dark World will open with 85-95mil and 215-235mil. I'm not ruling out 100+mil at all I'm just not predicting that right now. I honestly wouldn't be shocked if it hit 100mil in it's opening weekend. Internationally the sky is the limit for The Dark World. And oh yeah, like the first one the Hobbit sequel is going to be another billion dollar grosser.

 

[metaphysician]

I'm actually not so sure about the Hobbit. The first movie triggered some *very* mixed feelings from pretty much everyone I've talked to. While, sure, its still going to be big, I could see it falling short of a billion, from people not going, or waiting for cheaper tickets, or forgoing 3D.

 

[jacobed]

The first one was barely a billion and I don't think Smaug will get there

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I bet all movies would like barely hit a billion.

 

[:eek:]

‘Thor 2′ Begins International Rollout: Stronger Starts In UK & France Than First

By NIKKI FINKE, Editor in Chief | Thursday October 31, 2013
EXCLUSIVE… UPDATE: Disney and Marvel Studios‘ Thor: The Dark World opened in a handful of territories on Wednesday taking in $8.2M. The pic starring Chris Hemsworth was the #1 film in each market which represented only 28% of its eventual international footprint. It had stronger starts in the UK and France than the 2011 first installment. The North American opening is November 8th. Disney and Marvel see what they call “tremendous room for growth” at the box office from the first Thor which grossed just under $450M worldwide. “All signs indicate we’ll have a much higher result,” an exec tells me. “I can’t put a number on it, but by the time we report domestic numbers on November 10th, we should be in really great shape.” Thor opened to $65M in May 2011 and went on to earn $181M domestic and $268.3M international. By contrast, the Thor sequel opens in November in the majority of its international footprint this weekend starting with major territories UK, France and Korea, then Australia, Germany, Spain, Taiwan and Hong Kong a day later, and Russia, Mexico and Brazil on Friday. Next week China and India open day and date with the domestic opening November 8th. The overseas release follows the world premiere on October 22nd and global press junket in London with director Alan Taylor, producer Kevin Feige, and stars Hemsworth, Tom Hiddleston, Natalie Portman, Idris Elba, Stellan Skarsgard, Kat Dennings, Christopher Eccleston, Adewale Akinnuoye-Agbaje and more. The U.S. premiere will be held in Los Angeles on Monday. Marvel revealed the title treatment at Comic-Con 2012 and followed it up at this year’s event with a Hall H panel featuring exclusive footage and a filmmaker Q&A. The standing-room-only crowd of 6,500 went wild when Tom Hiddleston appeared to address the crowd in character as Loki. Exclusive footage was also shown to fans at Disney’s D23 Expo in Anaheim in August. Since then Hiddleston has headlined a worldwide publicity tour with stops in Sydney, Beijing, Seoul, London, Paris and Berlin, plus New York and LA still to come. The Digital 3D and RealD actioner’s screenplay by credited writers Christopher L. Yost and Christopher Markus & Stephen McFeely from a story by Don Payne and Robert Rodat based on Marvel’s classic superhero Thor who first appeared in the comic book “Journey into Mystery” #83 in August 1962.

 

[:eek:]

A week ahead of its U.S. debut, Thor: The Dark World opened to $109.4 million from 36 foreign markets this weekend. That represents 70 percent of the international marketplace, and doesn't include major territories China, Japan, and Italy.

Thor 2's biggest markets were the U.K. ($13.4 million), France ($9.4 million), Mexico ($8.2 million), Brazil ($8.1 million), Germany ($7.9 million), Russia ($7.8 million), South Korea ($7.6 million) and Australia ($6.9 million). Across those eight markets, Thor 2 was up on average around 27 percent from the first Thor. This was also a little over half as much as Iron Man 3, which is the first of the Avengers follow-ups. This data suggests that Thor: The Dark World isn't going to be able to make it to $500 million overseas.

 

[:eek:]

Top 25 worldwide

1. Iron Man 3 $1215,4 million
2. Despicable Me 2 $911,8 million
3. Fast & Furious 6 $788,7 million
4. Monsters University $743,1 million
5. Man of Steel $662,8 million
6. The Croods $587,2 million
7. World War Z $540 million
8. Oz The Great and Powerful $493,3 million
9. Star Trek Into Darkness $467,4 million
10. Gravity $427,3 million
11. The Wolverine $413,6 million
12. Pacific Rim $407,6 million
13. G.I. Joe: Retaliation $375,7 million
14. Now You See Me $351,7 million
15. The Hangover Part III $351 million
16. The Great Gatsby $348,8 million
17. The Smurfs 2 $344,3 million
18. The Conjuring $316,4 million
19. A Good Day to Die Hard $304,7 million
20. Oblivion $286,2 million
21. Elysium $283,1 million
22. Turbo $267,6 million
23. We're the Millers $264 million
24. Epic $260,8 million
25. The Lone Ranger $260,5 million

 

[Marvin]

A week ahead of its U.S. debut, Thor: The Dark World opened to $109.4 million from 36 foreign markets this weekend. That represents 70 percent of the international marketplace, and doesn't include major territories China, Japan, and Italy.

Thor 2's biggest markets were the U.K. ($13.4 million), France ($9.4 million), Mexico ($8.2 million), Brazil ($8.1 million), Germany ($7.9 million), Russia ($7.8 million), South Korea ($7.6 million) and Australia ($6.9 million). Across those eight markets, Thor 2 was up on average around 27 percent from the first Thor. This was also a little over half as much as Iron Man 3, which is the first of the Avengers follow-ups. This data suggests that Thor: The Dark World isn't going to be able to make it to $500 million overseas.

Marvel will bet on their intl roll out and big non relative international numbers to build buzz for the domestic release. It's worked for them in the past but I'm not so sure this time.

 

[smashmode]

Marvel will bet on their intl roll out and big non relative international numbers to build buzz for the domestic release. It's worked for them in the past but I'm not so sure this time.

What makes you think it won't do well?

 

[smashmode]

Any Predictions on Frozen? Disney is building up a ton of buzz with no review embargos and a TON of screenings. Lots of comparisons to classic Disney, with this opening on Thanksgiving weekend I can see this doing 250 Domestic.

 

[Iceman]

Looking forward to numbers for Hunger Games & Thor. Hopefully both improve on their 1st films.

 

[jacobed]

I bet all movies would like barely hit a billion.

Guaranteed Wb is a little disappointed in what the first one made. Looking at movies like The Dark Knight, Avatar, The Avengers and even Return of the King what they were able to make. Hobbit coming off of the ridiculously successful trilogy and in a billion different versions of expensive 3d and iMax. It barely makes a billion, if im an executive at Wb. Im very disappointed in what it made. Smaug will be no different