2013: The Re-Up (box office predictions)

[jmc]

I don't think it devalues Disney's brand at all.

Outside of Pixar and Marvel the only big movie franchise Disney has is POTC.

Their non-Pixar animation is no where as successful as Pixar and their non-POTC movies are no where as successful as Marvel.

If anything the Disney brand was slowly dying without mega-franchises.

and Disney will keep well over a billion in profit from releasing Pixar-Marvel-Star-Wars movies every year. Thanks to dvd, tv rights, rides, toys, and other merchandise.

It's way better than relying on strictly new ''franchises'' like John Carter and Lone Ranger.

Slowly dying? Please. Disney would have been fine with or without Marvel or Lucasfilm, the reason they bought those companies is because they lacked a key demographic that those companies filled. They were too lazy to get the creative talent to fix the issues within the live action department. Smart from a business perspective, but lazy for live action Disney films. Just look at the list of turkeys they've produced since Pirates 1, it's not pretty reading.

 

[jmc]

Yeah but that's why their film division can take those risks. Disney isn't a one trick poney and it doesn't depend on its film division nearly as much as many of its competitors in that industry.

But there talent isn't there for those risks and the judgement from those higher up is poor. Seriously, the Lone Ranger? What in gods name made them think that was ever a good idea?

 

[Bruce Malone]

But there talent isn't there for those risks and the judgement from those higher up is poor. Seriously, the Lone Ranger? What in gods name made them think that was ever a good idea?

Trust me I agree. I've actually been responding to a lot of people who's response is "we'll disney is rich they don't care", trust me they do care. No business no matter how rich likes to lose money, that's how they stay rich.

The Lone Ranger was the last of these "experiments" i'm sure. After POTC 5 i'm predicting disney will just go back to releasing G and PG movies and leave the pg-13 stuff to marvel.

 

[jmc]

It won't surprise me in the least if Disney shuts down live action completely in the next few years and just let the likes of Lucasfilm earn them coin.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I wouldn't be so sure about Disney stopping the experiments, maybe this new live action Jungle Book film will get a 200mil budget? You never know.

 

[jmc]

Is it any wonder films have to make so much money these days? I remember when $150 million was a crap load of money for a blockbuster, now it's the low end.

 

[:eek:]

Top 15 worldwide

1. Iron Man 3 $1211,1 million
2. Fast & Furious 6 $695,6 million
3. Man of Steel $588,1 million
4. The Croods $578,6 million
5. Oz The Great and Powerful $491,9 million
6. Star Trek Into Darkness $444 million
7. Monsters University $403,2 million
8. G.I. Joe: Retaliation $371,9 million
9. World War Z $368,6 million
10. The Hangover Part III $346,6 million
11. The Great Gatsby $321,9 million
12. Despicable Me 2 $304,7 million
13. A Good Day to Die Hard $304,7 million
14. Oblivion $285,6 million
15. Epic $236,6 million

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

This weekend: early estimates.

1. Grown-Ups 2 (Sony) NEW [Runs 3,491] PG13
Friday $16.5M, Weekend $46.0M
2. Despicable Me 2 (Illumination/Universal) Week 2 [Runs 4,003] PG
Friday $15.0M (-56%), Weekend $47.0M, Cume $230.0M
3. Pacific Rim (Legendary/Warner Bros) NEW [Runs 3,275] PG13
Friday $13.5M, Weekend $37.0M
4. The Heat (Fox) Week 3 [Runs 3,128] R
Friday $4.2M, Weekend $13.0M, Cume $111.4M
5. The Lone Ranger (Disney) Week 2 [Runs 3,904] PG13
Friday $3.4M (-68%), Weekend $10.4M, Cume $70.5M
6. Monsters University (Pixar/Disney) Week 4 [Runs 3,142] G
Friday $3.3M, Weekend $10.5M, Cume $237.6M
7. World War Z (Paramount) Week 4 [Runs 3,003] PG13
Friday $2.8M, Weekend $9.3M, Cume $177.0M
8. White House Down (Columbia/Sony) Week 3 [Runs 2,566] PG13
Friday $1.8M, Weekend $6.0M, Cume $62.8M
9. Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain (Summit/Lionsgate) Week 2 [Runs 892] R
Friday $1.5M (-59%), Weekend $4.7M, Cume $26.1M
10. Man Of Steel (Legendary/Warner Bros) Week 5 [Runs 2,150] PG13
Friday $1.4M, Weekend $5.0M, Cume $281.2M

 

[mclay18]

The Lone Ranger dropped almost 70% this week. Not pretty.

I don't think it'll make it to $100M domestic at the end of its run.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Actually it dropped 62%.

 

[mclay18]

I read it wrong, sorry. You were right, Spidey.

 

[Liam_H]

LR will eek out to around $100M I believe.

 

[Shifty]

Top 15 worldwide

1. Iron Man 3 $1211,1 million
2. Fast & Furious 6 $695,6 million
3. Man of Steel $588,1 million
4. The Croods $578,6 million
5. Oz The Great and Powerful $491,9 million
6. Star Trek Into Darkness $444 million
7. Monsters University $403,2 million
8. G.I. Joe: Retaliation $371,9 million
9. World War Z $368,6 million
10. The Hangover Part III $346,6 million
11. The Great Gatsby $321,9 million
12. Despicable Me 2 $304,7 million
13. A Good Day to Die Hard $304,7 million
14. Oblivion $285,6 million
15. Epic $236,6 million

There's some WB exec out there who is probably taking pitches for a sequel/prequel to The Great Gatsby...

 

[psylockolussus]

Thats a very weak start for Pacific Rim especially it had a 190m budget!!!

 

[redhawk23]

Is it any wonder films have to make so much money these days? I remember when $150 million was a crap load of money for a blockbuster, now it's the low end.

The thing is, impressive movies don't require 200 million dollar budgets, as we're reminded from time to time.

The budget problems tie into a number of problems that have come to light the past few years.

A major part of the skyrocketing budgets are the increased reliance on visual effects along with shortened production times that lead to huge amounts of overtime for effects companies. Getting all those effects shots done in less and less time demands more money thrown at the problem.

 

[MrMaooz]

Trust me I agree. I've actually been responding to a lot of people who's response is "we'll disney is rich they don't care", trust me they do care. No business no matter how rich likes to lose money, that's how they stay rich.

The Lone Ranger was the last of these "experiments" i'm sure. After POTC 5 i'm predicting disney will just go back to releasing G and PG movies and leave the pg-13 stuff to marvel.

Star Wars is going to be pg-13.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

LR will eek out to around $100M I believe.

I think it will get close but not make it.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Star Wars is going to be pg-13.

Yeah but i'm talking about Disney's in house-studio. The Marvel films are all pg-13 as well.

Also it's not a sure thing the new star wars will even be pg-13? To my knowledge the only previous star wars film to get a pg-13 rating was Revenge of the Sith and that film was pretty dark for a star wars pic, the rest were all pg.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

It's most likely gonna end up being PG-13.

 

[Bruce Malone]

That would seem to be the trend, however going with the past Star Wars films and Disney's own recent bad luck with pg-13 films it wouldn't surprise me if they decide to plan for a pg rating? I'm not sure JJ would be necessarily down for that? but it's disney's call.

TLR aside from other aspects got a lot of flack for it's perceived violence and how it was "inappropriate" for children.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

I don't know how attack of the clones or Phantom Menace wasn't got PG rating, but I think the original trilogy by today's standards would have gotten a PG-13 rating, especially considering that PG-13 didn't start appearing until after the original trilogy. I guess the prequel trilogy was given the benefit of the doubt because the original trilogy was PG.

Anakin slaughtered a whole village and lost his hand in attack of the clones.

 

[Bruce Malone]

It's been a while since I watched the prequels but only Revenge really struck me with its violent content or darker themes necessitating a pg-13. Although I wouldn't be surprised if Lucas's clout played a role in the ratings? The MPAA is pretty corrupt.

I give it 60/40 that the new Star Wars will get a pg-13.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Raiders of the Lost Ark is also PG.

No way in hell that would have been PG-13 if it existed at the time.

 

[Bruce Malone]

The pg-13 rating actually came about due to Temple of Doom and it's violent content which upset some parents.

If you actually look at some of the older "PG" movies you could actually find nudity in them also. I think in some ways ratings are even stricter or the content has gotten weaker now.

 

[terry78]

Look at that movie from '87 called Overboard. You had Goldie Hawn in a thong for extended periods.