2013: The Re-Up (box office predictions)

[Mace Dolex]

Yikes Pacific Rim bombed

It's not surprising unless it's a giant robot movie featuring Transformers the audience is gonna stay at home in droves, people that saw the trailers and saw the Godzilla-like monsters probably got turned off by it.

 

[Mace Dolex]

Yeah this is a good point.

Audiences are too savvy these days to support a movie simply because a single person is in it. Lone Ranger and After Earth taught are perfect examples since Depp and Smith are the biggest stars out there.

Yeah and plus audiences know a stinker when they see it (sometimes at least which explains Grown Ups 2 making money), that they've seen every apocalyptic movies end of the world type of movie which is why After Earth tanked.

And with The Lone Ranger bombing one need not forget Cowboys & Aliens and they one had stars like Daniel Craig and Harrison Ford.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I didn't say stars alone guarantee cash because clearly they don't. Stars in a movie with an interesting premise does help box office numbers. The Heat would not be on it's way to 140-150mil if it were starring Anna Farris and Oliva Wilde.

 

[Dr. Evil]

Except for The Internship, comedies have done well this summer.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I made my point, disagreeing with it is fine.

 

[rayc1971]

brad pitt did go out and promote the heck out of world war z.that movie was only trackin at 40mill opening weekend and did 66mill opening weekend I think he had a lot to do with that so it works both ways.will smith nd johnny depp were in to crappy movies that had huge budgetsand shouldn't have been made.

 

[tek]

johnny depp has been recently only in crappy movies

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

I made my point, disagreeing with it is fine.

I don't think Dr. Evil was disagreeing though.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

What do you guys think Wolverine will do?

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Wolverine

55/150 m

 

[terry78]

I think fans will go see this one moreso as opposed to Origins because it's based on a classic story from the books.

 

[Dr. Evil]

I don't think Dr. Evil was disagreeing though.

I wasn't. I was just making a point that the moviegoer apparently likes to laugh this year.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I have a feeling bad WOM from Origins is going to hurt The Wolverine.

People still remember getting burned the first time.

 

[mclay18]

I have a feeling bad WOM from Origins is going to hurt The Wolverine.

People still remember getting burned the first time.

Oh yeah. Just because X: First Class was better, doesn't mean people forget that god awful Origins. First time I was intensely disappointed and ANGRY at a film, and at a midnight show too.

I'm not seeing The Wolverine on principal. Forget that it's based on a famous comic book arc, the marketing makes it look like a generic prequel.

 

[Liam_H]

I have the same feelings too. Hated Origins so much that I just really don't want to see The Wolverine because of that. If it gets good word I'll check it out later.

As for how much it makes I guess around $60/150M. That's still quite a bit all things considered.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'm thinking 65mil opening at best for The Wolverine (watch it open with 70-75mil) and the same bad legs every X-Men film has. I think it looks bad but I'm a sucker so I'm seeing it.

Although I think that Elysium could hit 40-45mil in it's opening weekend I consider Wolverine the last really big opener. I mean hopefully Elysium proves me wrong and opens with 60mil because it looks fantastic and I wish the cast and crew nothing but success.

EDIT: My Prediction for The Wolverine is 60/150mil. People like the character I don't think it's drop off will be too bad. Then again I was shocked that The Hangover 3 only did 111.7mil so far. But that kind of drop off won't happen to Wolverine because it's not foolishly going up against Furious 6.

 

[mclay18]

My Prediction for The Wolverine is 60/150mil. People like the character I don't think it's drop off will be too bad. Then again I was shocked that The Hangover 3 only did 111.7mil so far. But that kind of drop off won't happen to Wolverine because it's not foolishly going up against Furious 6.

The Hangover 3 did badly because 1) People were soured on Part 2, and 2) Part 3 was AWFUL. Opening against Fast 6 hurt it some, but those two factors really did it in due to toxic word-of-mouth.

I don't care how glowing the reviews are for The Wolverine, people will probably steer clear of it because of Origins. They'll come out in droves for Days of Future Past because of X: First Class, not because of The Wolverine.

 

[jacobed]

I don't think so. Origins wasn't hated like it is on here. Wolverine is going to do great business. Hangover 3 did worse than it should have because it went up against Fast 6

 

[psylockolussus]

What do you guys think Wolverine will do?

Opening Weekend - 40 to 60 million
Over-all - 120 to 160 million

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

^Your multiplier is too good. None of the X-Men or X-Men related films have had a 3.0 multiplier and The Wolverine is a sequel so it definitely will not be getting those kinds of legs.

 

[Liam_H]

Wolverine's multiplier will end up around 2.5-2.7 probably depending on WOM.

 

[:eek:]

Top 15 worldwide

1. Iron Man 3 $1211,5 million
2. Fast & Furious 6 $704,3 million
3. Man of Steel $619,7 million
4. The Croods $581,9 million
5. Oz The Great and Powerful $491,9 million
6. Despicable Me 2 $477,2 million
7. Monsters University $475,7 million
8. Star Trek Into Darkness $447 million
9. World War Z $424,2 million
10. G.I. Joe: Retaliation $371,9 million
11. The Hangover Part III $347 million
12. The Great Gatsby $326,9 million
13. A Good Day to Die Hard $304,7 million
14. Oblivion $285,6 million
15. Epic $240,5 million

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Wolverine's multiplier will end up around 2.5-2.7 probably depending on WOM.

The first film had a 2.12 multiplier. I say 2.1-2.4 at best. So I'll change my prediction to 60/143mil.

Oh and Variety has some truly awful tracking numbers for R.I.P.D, they are saying late teens on 130mil budget? I think the trailers have only been eh, the marketing campaign has been very slight and where are the reviews? Yep Universal will be using that Furious 6 money to pay off this upcoming dud.

 

[Liam_H]

Yea but then were approaching Twilight/Potter level type of frontloading with that that number(the low end). I am assuming this movie won't be dog s**t like the last one and have terrible WOM. Also there isn't a movie(Star Trek) to come out and steal it audience completely away the 2nd week.

So I can still see something like $60/150M. Despite the last movie people are still interested in this and the character.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Yea but then were approaching Twilight/Potter level type of frontloading with that that number(the low end). I am assuming this movie won't be dog s**t like the last one and have terrible WOM. Also there isn't a movie(Star Trek) to come out and steal it audience completely away the 2nd week.

So I can still see something like $60/150M. Despite the last movie people are still interested in this and the character.

Oh yes Trek and quite a few people not liking it definitely hurt the film's second weekend. I'm factoring that into my range for the sequel. Even if it gets good word of mouth I still only see 2.4 at best.