2013: The Re-Up (box office predictions)

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Abram's whole "keeping everything under wraps" plan backfired this time.

 

[Marvin]

And heads aren't going to roll now? The studio was projecting over $100 million, it opened below the previous film. They gave IM3 two free weeks, IM3 was always going to be front loaded and was never going to have the same return business as Avengers, they should have released it the following week. Now they've got Fast 6 coming out.

yup

Abram's whole "keeping everything under wraps" plan backfired this time.

and yup
Funny how that worked wonders for super 8, kinda the reverse here.

 

[Warhammer]

I wouldn't necessarily say it "worked" for Super 8. It's budget was a cool 50 million. It wasn't too hard for it to be successful.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

It worked. It doesnt matter what the budget was. The movie was a runaway success critically and financially.

 

[Marvin]

I don't know how much money it made, but it had people talking like crazy. Everyone wanted to know what the big mystery was. Without which it would been just another forgotten high profile passion picture.

 

[Liam_H]

It worked with Cloverfield so it worked again with Super 8.

 

[Warhammer]

It worked. It doesnt matter what the budget was. The movie was a runaway success critically and financially.

Of course that matters. If that film was made for 190 million, it wouldn't have been a success financially.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I don't think Trek 2 would've done much better during IM3's second weekend.

Gatsby did well that weekend because it was counter-programming, not sci-fi.

 

[Evil Twin]

Yeah, I don't think Star Trek would have opened any better on another weekend either. It might have a little better legs, but there's no reason it shouldn't have opened fine.

And I think the opening is all on the four year wait and a marketing campaign that was so focused on a mystery villain that it didn't sell much of anything except Benedict Cumberbatch monologuing and some flashy action that wasn't much different than what we've seen previously. Perhaps selling Khan as a big deal would have helped, Khan has to be a bigger deal than Bane, but they ended up selling not much of anything except obfuscation.

 

[Marvin]

Every time I try to apply the mystery villain to one of our modern hits, it seems like a bad idea. I'm sure it's worked out somewhere before though.

Def not with the Batman films(that would be stupid).

 

[BestGirl]

Yeah, I don't think Star Trek would have opened any better on another weekend either. It might have a little better legs, but there's no reason it shouldn't have opened fine.

And I think the opening is all on the four year wait and a marketing campaign that was so focused on a mystery villain that it didn't sell much of anything except Benedict Cumberbatch monologuing and some flashy action that wasn't much different than what we've seen previously. Perhaps selling Khan as a big deal would have helped, Khan has to be a bigger deal than Bane, but they ended up selling not much of anything except obfuscation.

Star Trek already isn't the most popular franchise out there, so telling people that the Enterprise crew is going to be fighting some mysterious human named John Harrison (Who?) isn't how you put butts in seats.

 

[rashad]

BoxOffice ‏@BoxOffice
Early #s: FAST & FURIOUS 6 $37M Fri/$100M+ 4-day; EPIC $12M Fri/$52M 4 day; HANGOVER 3 $12M Fri/$42M 4-day

 

[Liam_H]

The Hangover 3, how far you have fallen.

 

[Ultimatehero]

The #2 film is Warner Bros’ The Hangover Part III co-financed with Legendary Pictures making $14M today after earning $11.7M for its Wednesday late shows/Thursday midnights. It’s aiming for a $50M Memorial Weekend from 3,555 North American theaters over its 4 1/2 day debut.

- Deadline 1:30 PM, today.

I'd say they are ALL right on track, HANGOVER II earned about 150 + mil after it's initial 100 mil Memorial Weekend take. So saying HANGOVER 3 earns 75 mil (HALF of HANGOVER II following the same pattern) it'll be looking at 125 million domestically alone at least with a 103 million dollar budget. It's not grand, it's worse than II, but I wouldn't call that bad at all. In the end it'll still be successful. And if anyone says word of mouth -- people were complaining about II as well, that went on to earn 150 mil following opening weekend despite that.

 

[Liam_H]

On track to drop over half of the previous movie is pretty bad. The WOM is showing on this movie.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Of course that matters. If that film was made for 190 million, it wouldn't have been a success financially.

But it wasn't, so it was a success, and the mystery worked. You can't say it didn't.

 

[Ultimatehero]

On track to drop over half of the previous movie is pretty bad. The WOM is showing on this movie.

Nobody's saying it isn't bad, but to say that it's flop or a bomb? Or at least people on IMDB are, unsure which angle you're coming from, is not at all true. To make 125 mil domestically alone with a 103 million dollar budget? Plus worldwide, which for Hangover II made 332 mill. So even if we halve that, or hell just give it 100 mil. You're looking at 225 mill worldwide for a 103 mill dollar film, a clear profit. And while not as great, I wouldn't call it poor either.

Plus word of mouth did nothing against Hangover II which was similarly universally "seemingly" panned as well. I say "seemingly" because it went on to earn an additional 150 mil after it's opening weekend which doesn't exactly show poor word of mouth. And H III seems to have the same, or to look at a more negative side, a little more as well - thus halving it and it's still not a poor result just less.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

No one's calling it a bomb here. You're making it sound like we're calling it that here.

But The Hangover III is a flop, or did you forget P/A, and the fact that a movie has to make 2.5 multiplier usually to make a profit.

 

[Ultimatehero]

No one's calling it that here. You're making it sound like we're calling it that here.

Going "universal" and broad, people on IMDB are. Thus I'm addressing the people from there who might float over here. Less than the second yes, poor no, flop no, still a success and making a clear profit.

 

[Liam_H]

Expectations are relative. For a movie that had two previously make more than $250 million domestically this is a huge disappointment. Wouldn't really call that a profit since the general rule is you need to triple your budget to get even.

WOM is showing on this movie due to the previous. Hardly any people are rushing to see this like they did the 2nd.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Expectations are relative. For a movie that had two previously make more than $250 million domestically this is a huge disappointment. Wouldn't really call that a profit since the general rule is you need to triple your budget to get even.

WOM is showing on this movie due to the previous. Hardly any people are rushing to see this like they did the 2nd.

Agreed, it's obvious that the negative word of mouth, combined with how disappointing the second film was hurt the movie.

Going "universal" and broad, people on IMDB are. Thus I'm addressing the people from there who might float over here. Less than the second yes, poor no, flop no, still a success and making a clear profit.

But it's not making a profit going by the usual Hollywood logic.

 

[Marvin]

12 million to go for IM3 to pass TF3. Will it do it...

 

[Liam_H]

I'm guessing that's rhetorical.

 

[Marvin]

Honest question.
Just passed it domestically.

 

[Liam_H]

FF6 estimate is so close to that milestone. I'm surprised Universal didn't just give it a bigger push.

As for HO3 well if it follows HO2 trend then there's a chance its entire run won't even match FF6 4 day total.