"300" Box Office Prediction Thread

your opening weekend prediction

  • less than 10 million

  • 10 to 20 million

  • 20 to 30 million

  • 30 to 40 million

  • 40 to 50 million

  • 50 to 60 million

  • more than 60 million


Results are only viewable after voting.
http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117961374.html?categoryid=13&cs=1

300's gonna have a huge international weekend next week...

<H1>'300' wins overseas box office battle
Film buried competition in every territory

By DAVE MCNARY




The Spartans easily conquered the international box office as "300" amped up an otherwise moderate frame with $15.6 million at 1,300 playdates in 13 markets.

Pic buried the competition in every territory, led by a socko South Korean opening of $6.3 million at 353 that captured 69% of the top five market share in Seoul and topped the "Troy" launch. Its second Greek frame stayed solid with $2.5 million at 140, down only 19%.
War actioner has taken in $24.6 million internationally and should dominate foreign biz in coming weeks with a major expansion next weekend into France, Spain, Italy, Mexico and the U.K.
Pic's drawn impressive box office blood in midsize markets so far, launching in Turkey with $1.5 million at 115 to see the second-best opening day for a Warner Bros. film; in Thailand with $917,000 at 120, ahead of three local pics; in its second Taiwanese sesh with $852,000 at 91, down 28%; in Hong Kong with $730,000 at 33; and in India, where it finished first ahead of two local pics with $582,000 at 161.
Results in most markets for "300" have been on par with or better than those for other battle epics, such as "Troy" and "The Last Samurai," both of which topped $300 million overseas. And the emergence of "300" as a likely worldwide blockbuster will keep overall biz in coming weeks matching last year's record-setting pace in April, when "Ice Age: The Meltdown" dominated.
Warner also took the second slot as previous winner "Music and Lyrics" tuned in with a decent $9.1 million at 2,900 in 46 markets, led by its German soph sesh with $1.96 million at 621, topping the opening of local title "Neues vom Wixxer." In France, "Music" opened in second with $1.8 million at 350, trailing local holdover "La Mome."
The romantic comedy has turned in respectable numbers amid a lack of rival fare with $56.6 million overseas, $9 million better than its domestic total.
Eddie Murphy's "Norbit" showed the staying power of broad comedy with $8.6 million at 2,405 in 33 markets, led by a first-place finish in its second U.K. frame with $2.1 million at 362, down 46%; its second German sesh with $1.7 million at 505; and a Spanish launch of $1.1 million at 234. "Norbit" has totaled $31 million overseas and $123 million worldwide for Paramount.
Sony's "Ghost Rider" zoomed off with $7.3 million at 3,635 in 56 markets, led by a second-place Italian launch with $1.7 million at 304. Nicolas Cage starrer, which won three straight weekends earlier, has ridden to $87.5 million overseas and $198 million worldwide.
Fox's sturdy "Night at the Museum" grabbed $6.7 million at 1,900 -- three-quarters of that coming from its Japanese launch of $5.1 million at 575 including previews. "Museum" has outperformed expectations with a foreign cume of $288 million and $537 million worldwide -- the 39th highest of all time.
Local romancer "Ho voglia di te," distribbed by Warner, stayed in first in Italy with $3.9 million at 694, sliding 55% from its boffo launch frame. Fox's "Epic Movie" took $3.4 million at 1,000 with a second-place launch in Mexico of $1.3 million at 456.
BVI continued driving to decent early results on "Wild Hogs" with $3.1 million at 470 in four markets, led by an Australian soph sesh of $2 million at 237, off only 21%, and a Russian launch of $775,000 at 200 in what was the first pic out of the newly minted BVI-Sony joint venture in that market. "Hogs" will move into other major markets in mid-April.
Aside from "Night at the Museum," Japan also saw launches of two other high-profile pics that have run their course in the rest of the world --Warner's "Happy Feet" with $2 million at 499 to lift the foreign cume to $174.8 million and worldwide to $371 million and BVI's "Deja Vu" with $1.5 million at 275 for a foreign total of $108 million, $42 million ahead of the domestic cume.
"Premonition" debuted day-and-date in the U.K. via Entertainment with a moderate $1.9 million at 357, trailing "Norbit." Oscar winners took in a bit more coin with "Dreamgirls" adding $1.8 million at 1,393 to lift the foreign cume to $47.4 million and "The Last King of Scotland" grossing $1.1 million at 500 with a German launch of $433,000 at 86.
Universal's "Hot Fuzz" laughed its way to $2.8 million at 660, led by its Oz launch of $1.3 million at 186. "Fuzz" has cumed a boffo $37.5 million in six weeks in the U.K.
Sony saw a decent second Mexican frame for its local production "Charm School" with $1.2 million at 352, off 28%. Other notable performers: BVI's "Becoming Jane" with $1 million in its second U.K. frame; U's "Smokin' Aces" with $1.1 million at 600 and its "The Good Shepherd" with $1.1 million at 609; and Par's "Charlotte's Web" with $2 million at 1,318 and its "Freedom Writers" with $1 million at 569. Fox's "The Devil Wears Prada" ended the frame by crossing the $200 million milestone internationally, pushing the worldwide cume to $325 million.
</H1>
 
Actuals are in, higher than the estimate:

$ 32,877,328 (- 53.6%).
 
Wow, WB was conservative in its estimates... It actually dropped less than GR, even though it had a much bigger opening...
 
this makes sense...
http://imdb.com/news/sb/2007-03-19/

The biker comedy Wild Hogs remained in second place, dropping only 32 percent, as it raked in about $18.8 million and crossed the $100-million mark in its third weekend. (There have been numerous reports that teens have been buying tickets for the PG-13-rated Hogs, then sneaking in to see the R-rated 300.)

300 is making Wild Hogs a hit.
 
I thought the movie was very good. Doesn't has a great plot or good acting but it delivers in terms of visuals and nice actions scenes.

I am glad the movie is doing well.
 
I think its a bit sad that people are buying tickets for one movie,and seeing 300.I wonder if they just bought tickets for 300..how much more would be 300`s box office sum?Is it more than Ghost Rider?I hope so.
 
I think its a bit sad that people are buying tickets for one movie,and seeing 300.I wonder if they just bought tickets for 300..how much more would be 300`s box office sum?

its how it goes sometimes...if only it were something else right now that the people who can't get into 300 right now were buying tickets for...something a little more worthy than Wild Hogs. Its just funny that most box office tracking sites are scratching thier heads as to why Wild Hogs continues to do well when its pretty obvious whats happening. Not saying all of its take obviously...but a decent chunk of what could have been 300's box office went to WH in the last 2weeks.
 
but i got to admit i have never seen so many ppl come to the theatres and watch this movie several times...i seen it 4 times, i work at a theatre though, but i went and paid to c it at IMAX
 
Well, people prefer Quality over cheeze and overpolished fx. Oh, and actual battle scenes, people love a good fight.
 
Latest numbers:

Monday: $ 3,455,216.
Tuesday: $ 3,318,411.

Domestic total to date: $ 135,939,283.
Worldwide total to date: $ 161,139,283.
 
3million 3 days in a row...these are great daily #'s! It'll be over 150m after this weekend.
 
Looks like TMNT wins the weekend easily.

http://forum.fantasymoguls.com

from Steve Mason, FantasyMoguls.com

As of 6:30p pacific on Friday evening, it appears that Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (Warner Bros) will coast to an easy weekend win battling past 5 other new films entering the marketplace. My studio sources are telling me that TMNT will finish the 3-day in the $21-$24 million range.

These early numbers are based on raw data from east coast matinees which is compared to early numbers from comparable films. Studios revise their numbers all weekend, and as more data comes in, projections naturally become more accurate, but my sources are in agreement that the super-charged computer animated Ninja Turtles will definitely win the weekend by a comfortable margin.

Second place for the weekend will go to either Warner Bros holdover 300 or Shooter (Paramount) starring Mark Wahlberg. Both films are in the $14-$17 million range. This will be a huge disappointment to Paramount, which has invested heavily in Antoine Fuqua’s thriller. Shooter will not be one of Wahlberg’s Top 5 opening weekends, and it could be as far down as his 8th best 3-day opening.

1. Planet of the Apes - $68.5 million
2. The Perfect Storm - $41.3 million
3. The Departed - $26.8 million
4. Four Brothers - $21.1 million
5. The Italian Job - $19.4 million
6. Invincible - $17 million
7. Three Kings - $15.8 million
8. The Big Hit - $10.8 million

The lackluster performance will dampen some of the momentum that Wahlberg might have had coming off of his Oscar-nominated role in The Departed.

Holdover Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) and The Hills Have Eyes 2 (Fox Atomic) are neck-and-neck for 4th place for the weekend. My studio box office gurus put Hills 2 at $9-$11 million and Hogs could finish anywhere from $9.5-$11.5 million.

New Line’s The Last Mimzy, directed by studio chief Robert Schaye, will likely finish 6th with an estimated $9-$11 million. That’s not bad considering that the film was scoring zeroes in the industry tracking as recently as 3 weeks ago. Premonition (Sony) is taking a major second week tumble with a projected $6-$8 million in a dead heat with Reign Over Me (Sony) at $6-$7.5 million. Pride (Lionsgate), starring Terrence Howard, will finish no better than 9th with an estimated $4.5-$6 million.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
-as of 6:30p pacific on Friday, 3/23-
1. TMNT (Warner Bros) - $21-$24 million
2. 300 (Warner Bros) - $14-$17 million
2. Shooter (Paramount) - $14-$17 million
4. Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) - $9.5-$11.5 million
4. The Hills Have Eyes (Fox Atomic) - $9-$11 million
6. The Last Mimzy (New Line) - $8-$10 million
7. Premonition (Sony) - $6-$8 million
7. Reign Over Me (Sony) - $6-$7.5 million
9. Pride (Lionsgate) - $4.5-$6 million
10. Bridge To Terabithia (Buena Vista) - $1.75-$2.75 million
10. Dead Silence (Universal) – $1.5-$2.5 million
10. I Think I Love My Wife (Fox Searchlight) - $1.25-2.25 million
 
Went to see this (in the UK) on Thursday. It was a daytime showing and yet the cinema was still pretty packed. Should get some pretty decent numbers over here.
 
Dang, Wild Hogs and TMNT are both going to benefit alot this weekend because of all the R-rated movies.
_____________________
300 made $2,916,262 on Thursday.
 
6.1mil for friday. Thats like a 40% drop I think. It would be amazing if this movie made it to 200mil.
 
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