91st Annual Academy Awards

[Kaleb]

 

[Gold Samurai]

Having just watched the "Vice" trailer I think this could be the third Oscar contender


First Man
A Star Is Born
Vice

-Gosling for best actor and Claire Foy getting her first nomination

-Bradley for best director and actor with Lady Gaga getting her first acting nomination

-Bale with maybe a nomination for Amy Adams and first time one for Steve Carrell

 

[MadderMaximus]

I'm thinking it's possible for another nom for Sam Rockwell, though unsure he would be a winner.

 

[Gold Samurai]

Oh right. He could get best supporting actor nod along side Carrell

 

[Boom]

Best Actor is Bradley Cooper's to lose.

 

[Kane52630]

Feinberg Forecast: First Look at the 2018-2019 Oscar Race

BEST PICTURE

22 July (Netflix) VENI, TIFF
At Eternity's Gate (CBS Films) VENI, NYFF
Vice (Annapurna)
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Netflix) VENI, NYFF
Beautiful Boy (Amazon) TIFF
Ben is Back (Roadside Attractions) TIFF
Bird Box (Netflix)
BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features) CANN
Black Panther (Disney)
Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox)
Boy Erased (Focus Features) TELL, TIFF
Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight) TELL, TIFF
Capernaum (Sony Classics) CANN, TIFF
Cold War (Amazon) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
Colette (Bleecker Street) SUND, TIFF
Crazy Rich Asians (Warner Bros.)
Destroyer (Annapurna) TELL, TIFF, LOND
Disobedience (Bleecker Street) TRIB
Eighth Grade (A24) SUND
Everybody Knows (Focus Features) CANN, TIFF
The Favourite (Fox Searchlight) VENI, TELL, NYFF
First Man (Universal) VENI, TELL, TIFF
First Reformed (A24) VENI ['17], TELL ['17], TIFF ['17], NYFF ['17]
The Front Runner (Sony) TELL, TIFF
Green Book (Universal) TIFF
The Hate U Give (Fox) TIFF
Hereditary (A24) SUND
Hotel Mumbai (Bleecker Street/ShivHans Pictures) TIFF
If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna) TIFF, NYFF
Isle of Dogs (Fox Searchlight) BERL
Leave No Trace (Bleecker Street) SUND, CANN
Life Itself (Amazon) TIFF
Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
Mary Queen of Scots (Focus Features)
Mission: Impossible — Fallout (Paramount)
The Old Man & The Gun (Fox Searchlight) TELL, TIFF, LOND
Non-Fiction (IFC) TELL, TIFF, NYFF
On the Basis of Sex (Focus Features)
Outlaw King (Netflix) TIFF
Peterloo (Amazon) VENI, TELL
A Private War (Aviron) LOND
Private Life (Netflix) SUND, NYFF
A Quiet Place (Paramount)
Roma (Netflix) VENI, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
The Sisters Brothers (Annapurna) VENI, TIFF
Sorry to Bother You (Annapurna) SUND
A Star Is Born (Warner Bros.) VENI, TIFF
Suspiria (Amazon) VENI
White Boy Rick (Sony) TELL, TIFF
Widows (Fox) TIFF, LOND
The Wife (Sony Classics) TIFF ['17]
Wildlife (IFC) SUND, CANN, TIFF, NYFF


STILL SEEKING U.S. DISTRIBUTOR (alphabetical)

Dumplin'
Galveston TIFF
High Life NYFF
Icebox
My Life on the Road
The Public TIFF
Red Joan TIFF
Stan & Ollie LOND
Vox Lux TIFF
Trial by Fire TELL
The Wedding Guest TIFF

BEST DIRECTOR

Olivier Assayas (Non-Fiction)
Ari Aster (Hereditary)
Jacques Audiard (The Sisters Brothers)
Susanne Bier (Bird Box)
Bo Burnham (Eighth Grade)
Damien Chazelle (First Man) — podcast
Jon M. Chu (Crazy Rich Asians)
Ethan Coen & Joel Coen (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)
Ryan Coogler (Black Panther)
Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Paul Dano (Wildlife)
Yann Demange (White Boy Rick)
Joel Edgerton (Boy Erased)
Asghar Farhadi (Everybody Knows)
Peter Farrelly (Green Book)
Dan Fogelman (Life Itself)
Debra Granik (Leave No Trace)
Paul Greengrass (22 July)
Luca Guadagnino (Suspiria)
Peter Hedges (Ben is Back)
Matthew Heineman (A Private War)
Marielle Heller (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk) — podcast
Tamara Jenkins (Private Life)
John Krasinski (A Quiet Place)
Karyn Kusama (Destroyer)
Nadine Labaki (Capernaum)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Mimi Leder (On the Basis of Sex)
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Mike Leigh (Peterloo)
Sebastian Lelio (Disobedience)
David Lowery (The Old Man & The Gun)
Anthony Maras (Hotel Mumbai)
Rob Marshall (Mary Poppins Returns)
Adam McKay (Vice)
Christopher McQuarrie (Mission: Impossible — Fallout)
Steve McQueen (Widows)
Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)
Lynne Ramsay (You Were Never Really Here)
Jason Reitman (The Front Runner)
Boots Riley (Sorry to Bother You)
Josie Rourke (Mary Queen of Scots)
Bjorn Runge (The Wife)
Julian Schnabel (At Eternity's Gate)
Paul Schrader (First Reformed)
George Tillman, Jr. (The Hate U Give)
Gus Van Sant (Don't Worry, He Won't Get Far on Foot)
Felix Van Groeningen (Beautiful Boy)
Wash Westmoreland (Colette)

STILL SEEKING U.S. DISTRIBUTOR (alphabetical)

Jon S. Baird (Stan & Ollie)
Brady Corbet (Vox Lux)
Claire Denis (High Life)
Emilio Estevez (The Public)
Anne Fletcher (Dumplin')
Melanie Laurent (Galveston)
Trevor Nunn (Red Joan)
Julie Taymor (My Life on the Road)
Michael Winterbottom (The Wedding Guest)
Edward Zwick (Trial by Fire)

BEST ACTOR

Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Christian Bale (Vice)
Javier Bardem (Everybody Knows)
Chadwick Boseman (Black Panther)
Steve Carell (Vice)
Steve Carell (Beautiful Boy)
Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate)
Marcello Fonte (Dogman)
Ryan Gosling (First Man)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Wildlife)
Ethan Hawke (First Reformed)
Lucas Hedges (Ben is Back)
Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased)
Oscar Isaac (Life Itself)
Oscar Isaac (Operation Finale)
Hugh Jackman (The Front Runner)
Brady Jandreau (The Rider)
Rory Kinnear (Peterloo)
John Krasinski (A Quiet Place)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
Joaquin Phoenix (The Sisters Brothers)
Chris Pine (Outlaw King)
Jonathan Pryce (The Wife)
Robert Redford (The Old Man & the Gun)
John C. Reilly (The Sisters Brothers)
Lakeith Stanfield (Sorry to Bother You)
John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)

STILL SEEKING U.S. DISTRIBUTOR (alphabetical)

Steve Coogan (Stan & Ollie)
Jack O'Connell (Trial by Fire)
Robert Pattinson (High Life)
John C. Reilly (Stan & Ollie)

BEST ACTRESS

Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)
Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place)
Sandra Bullock (Bird Box)
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Toni Collette (Hereditary)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Viola Davis (Widows)
Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade)
Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Kindergarten Teacher)
Kathryn Hahn (Private Life)
Isabelle Huppert (Greta)
Dakota Johnson (Suspiria)
Felicity Jones (On the Basis of Sex)
Nicole Kidman (Destroyer)
Keira Knightley (Colette)
Joanna Kulig (Cold War)
KiKi Layne (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Thomasin McKenzie (Leave No Trace)
Julianne Moore (Gloria Bell)
Chloe Grace Moretz (The Miseducation of Cameron Post)
Carey Mulligan (Wildlife)
Maxine Peake (Peterloo)
Michelle Pfeiffer (Where Is Kyra?)
Rosamund Pike (A Private War)
Julia Roberts (Ben is Back)
Saoirse Ronan (Mary Queen of Scots)
Amandla Stenberg (The Hate U Give)
Hilary Swank (What They Had)
Charlize Theron (Tully)
Emma Thompson (The Children Act)
Rachel Weisz (Disobedience)
Olivia Wilde (Life Itself)


STILL SEEKING U.S. DISTRIBUTOR (alphabetical)

Danielle Macdonald (Dumplin')
Julianne Moore (My Life on the Road)
Elisabeth Moss (Her Smell)
Natalie Portman (Vox Lux)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Casey Affleck (The Old Man & the Gun)
Riz Ahmed (The Sisters Brothers)
Harry Belafonte (BlacKkKlansman)
Dave Chappelle (A Star Is Born)
Jason Clarke (First Man)
Andrew Dice Clay (A Star Is Born)
Russell Crowe (Boy Erased)
Jamie Dornan (A Private War)
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
Robert Duvall (Widows)
Joel Edgerton (Boy Erased)
Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)
Robert Forster (What They Had)
Ben Foster (Leave No Trace)
Rupert Friend (At Eternity's Gate)
Paul Giamatti (Private Life)
Topher Grace (BlacKkKlansman)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Michael Greyeyes (Woman Walks Ahead)
Jake Gyllenhaal (The Sisters Brothers)
Armie Hammer (On the Basis of Sex)
Brian Tyree Henry (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Nicholas Hoult (The Favourite)
Oscar Isaac (At Eternity's Gate)
Stephan James (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther)
Ben Kingsley (Operation Finale)
Anders Danielsen Lie (22 July)
Matthew McConaughey (White Boy Rick)
Mike Myers (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Tim Blake Nelson (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)
Alessandro Nivola (Disobedience)
Sam Rockwell (Vice)
Michael Shannon (What They Had)
Sebastian Stan (Destroyer)
Christian Slater (The Wife)
Justin Theroux (On the Basis of Sex)
Tom Waits (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)
Dominic West (Colette)
Ben Whishaw (Mary Poppins Returns)
Alex Wolff (Hereditary)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams (Vice)
Angela Bassett (Black Panther)
Kathy Bates (On the Basis of Sex)
Annette Bening (Life Itself)
Blythe Danner (What They Had)
Marina de Tavira (Roma)
Elizabeth Debicki (Widows)
Ann Dowd (Hereditary)
Claire Foy (First Man) — podcast
Vera Farmiga (The Front Runner)
Ari Graynor (The Front Runner)
Danai Gurira (Black Panther)
Regina Hall (The Hate U Give)
Siobhan Fallon Hogan (Private Life)
Zoe Kazan (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)
Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased) — podcast
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Jennifer Jason Leigh (White Boy Rick)
Nia Long (Roxanne Roxanne)
Rachel McAdams (Disobedience)
Emily Mortimer (Mary Poppins Returns)
Elisabeth Moss (The Old Man & The Gun)
Lupita Nyong'o (Black Panther)
Sarah Paulson (Bird Box)
Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots)
Millicent Simmonds (A Quiet Place)
Sissy Spacek (The Old Man & The Gun)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Meryl Streep (Mary Poppins Returns)
Tilda Swinton (Suspiria)
Letitia Wright (Black Panther)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Michelle Yeoh (Crazy Rich Asians)
STILL SEEKING U.S. DISTRIBUTOR (alphabetical)

Jennifer Aniston (Dumplin')
Laura Dern (Trial by Fire)

 

[Lencho01]

Black Panther Has Its Eyes Set on a Lot of Oscars

‘Black Panther’ Oscar Chances Increase as Disney Limits ‘Infinity War’ to Only One Possible Nomination

 

[Boom]

With the reviews Bohemian Rhapsody is getting, I'd say Rami Malek is done for. And that's not even taking into account the Bryan Singer story that's supposedly about to break.

I'd say these three are safe bets right now:

Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born (He is as close to a lock as we are going to get)
Christian Bale, Vice
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

I think Ryan Gosling is safe, but it also would not surprise me if he missed. His film underperformed at the box office, and going off of reactions from the Academy screening, it sounds like he didn't particularly stand out. But for now, I'll keep him on.

It's that fifth and final spot where things get interesting. I'm hoping that Ethan Hawke gets the critics push and makes it in, but there's still Clint Eastwood looming overhead. I'd say if The Mule gets good-to-great reviews, Eastwood is in. But for now, I'm predicting:

Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Christian Bale, Vice
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Ryan Gosling, First Man
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Side note: It's a shame that Ben Foster hasn't picked up any sort of traction. His performance in Leave No Trace absolutely deserves to be in the conversation.

 

[Kev4000]

If Panther wins Visual Effects over Infinity War, I cant take that serious.

 

[Schlosser85]

Black Panther in no way or universe deserves an Oscar nomination for Visual Effects.

 

[Lencho01]

Oscars: 25 Films Submitted for Best Animated Feature

 

[terry78]

Jesus Christ.

 

[Drizzle]

I’m thinking that award is Pixar’s to lose this year as per usual unless Wreck-It Ralph 2 gets even more praise than Incredibles 2 (unlikely). But at what point do the producers of Hotel Transylvania 3 think “Yeah, we totally have a shot at this”?

 

[scarlet-witch]

Black Panther has the best chance in the costume category, IMO. Nothing other than Infinity War should be winning visual effects (at least from what I've seen so far)

 

[Lencho01]

Can Barrier-Breaking ‘Black Panther’ Become The First Superhero Movie Nominated For Best Picture?

 

[Teelie]

There is no reason other than old Hollywood stubborness against celebrating a superhero movie preventing it from getting a nomination.

 

[Schlosser85]

Black Panther is no more Oscar-worthy than like two-thirds of other CBMs though.

 

[Teelie]

It might not be Best Picture but snubbing it in everything else is still wrong.

 

[Schlosser85]

Is it "snubbing", though? It's no better or worse than your average CBM.

I'd say maybe costuming and production design. Visual effects would be a joke.

 

[Man in the Suit]

The 3rd act of Martin Freeman flying a spaceship and terrible CG rhinos/fights should prevent it.

 

[AResistor]

Black Panther is no more Oscar-worthy than like two-thirds of other CBMs though.

That is your opinion of the movie, now to enter facts into the equation:

100% Rotten Tomatoes Top Critics, 8.9/10
97% Rotten Tomatoes All Critics, 8.2/10
4.1/5 (79%) Rotten Tomatoes Average Audience Score

#1 Comic Book Adaptation/Superhero at the Box Office (beating out even Infinity War)
#3 ALL TIME Domestic Box Office (not adjusted for inflation)

Historically it is the first (potentially) mega-blockbuster with a black director and mostly black cast.

Historically it is the first mega-blockbuster with a black protagonist that contends with what it means to be black today, I was going to say in America - but in the UK, etc. it'd still largely be the same.

So while for you it was like 2/3rds of the other comic book films - I'll let the records (critically and at the box office (audience response)) and historical as well as cultural landmarks speak for themselves.

As said, I imagine this rolling out the same way that 'Get Out' did last year - genre film that is critically acclaimed and audience beloved at the box office that presents resonating and poignant cultural themes for today's society, while at the same time making cinematic history in terms of on-screen representation.

 

[Kane52630]

It's definitely getting some recognition for costume, production design, and music.

 

[CB Fan]

That is your opinion of the movie, now to enter facts into the equation:

100% Rotten Tomatoes Top Critics, 8.9/10
97% Rotten Tomatoes All Critics, 8.2/10
4.1/5 (79%) Rotten Tomatoes Average Audience Score

#1 Comic Book Adaptation/Superhero at the Box Office (beating out even Infinity War)
#3 ALL TIME Domestic Box Office (not adjusted for inflation)

Historically it is the first (potentially) mega-blockbuster with a black director and mostly black cast.

Historically it is the first mega-blockbuster with a black protagonist that contends with what it means to be black today, I was going to say in America - but in the UK, etc. it'd still largely be the same.

So while for you it was like 2/3rds of the other comic book films - I'll let the records (critically and at the box office (audience response)) and historical as well as cultural landmarks speak for themselves.

As said, I imagine this rolling out the same way that 'Get Out' did last year - genre film that is critically acclaimed and audience beloved at the box office that presents resonating and poignant cultural themes for today's society, while at the same time making cinematic history in terms of on-screen representation.

I wouldn’t even list the Rotten Tomatoes audience score as it was well known that there was a movement to lower the score by folks (reported to be DC fans) mad at Disney and they moved against The Last Jedi as well. Instead I’d say that the film is among only 77 films to receive an A+ cinema score since 1982.

The film is in the top tier of Superhero films.

 

[Schlosser85]

Otherwise mediocre movies shouldn’t get Oscars just for meeting diversity/representation quotas.

That’s kind of ironically racist cheap pandering.

 

[CB Fan]

Cute, but the movie is much more than that. You dont see it? Oh well...