95th Annual Academy Awards

[Scarlet Spider]

We'll see. As you said, it's not 100%. Last time that happened was in 2019 when Emily Blunt won the SAG for Supporting Actress while Regina King won the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress. However, that was an interesting case because Emily Blunt wasn't nominated for the Oscar and Regina King wasn't nominated for the SAG award that year.

Also the Globes are trash but for the most part it's usually a good Oscar indicator of whoever wins in the Supporting Actor/Actress categories.

Your original point was Bassett was a lock to win and now your changing your arguement by using an extreme example.

Which is it? Is she a lock or an underdog?

Also, the Globes have ZERO bearing on the Oscars. There's virtually no overlap between the two. Everyone knows this.

 

[Kane52630]

Yeah, Angela Bassett getting recognition for Wakanda Forever is basically a legacy nod for her career just like when Scorsese won for The Departed.

 

[Drizzle]

While Angela owns those two scenes, she has so many better full forced roles in her career. Anything surrounding this campaign just feel like legacy noms/wins.

This isn't like the Heath situation, where he was a chameleon in the makeup. Joker pretty much stole that film. Heath's Joker is legendary.

Ramonda serves her purpose, but once her character exits the film... you don't feel her character's weight throughout the rest of the film.

For me, I can easily blame Wright's capability to sell that and honestly Namor stole any repercussion of Ramonda (or even T'Challa) for me.

It's a legacy nomination for sure but from a personal standpoint I thought Bassett did more with what she had in Wakanda Forever than JLC in EEAAO or Condon in Banshees. All great performances but Bassett's stood out to me more.

Your original point was Bassett was a lock to win and now your changing your arguement by using an extreme example.

Which is it? Is she a lock or an underdog?

Also, the Globes have ZERO bearing on the Oscars. There's virtually no overlap between the two. Everyone knows this.

Not a lock or the 100% frontrunner, certainly not an underdog, but the likeliest to win.

 

[Scarlet Spider]

Not a lock or the 100% frontrunner, certainly not an underdog, but the likeliest to win.

She's definitely not the likeliest to win and there's evidence to back that up. She's most certainly an underdog with Curtis and Condon ahead of her.

 

[Drizzle]

She's definitely not the likeliest to win and there's evidence to back that up. She's most certainly an underdog with Curtis and Condon ahead of her.

Again, we'll see in two weeks. That's the last thing I'll say about it.

 

[Scarlet Spider]

Again, we'll see in two weeks. That's the last thing I'll say about it.

I still don't understand why you think it's so likely based on a meaningless Golden Globe win but yeah we'll see.

 

[antsman41]

It's a legacy nomination for sure but from a personal standpoint I thought Bassett did more with what she had in Wakanda Forever than JLC in EEAAO or Condon in Banshees. All great performances but Bassett's stood out to me more.

...weird, but ok.

Hell, just the 'hot dog finger' universe gave me the most beautiful acting from Jamie ever.

And, the way Condon could show love and frustration over her brother ... let alone her utter disdain yet simple respect to 'Barry' was ten-fold over any emotion in Wakanda.

 

[Kane52630]

Maybe the Globes were "meaningless" in the past but they got different people running the organization now and everyone and their agent has said they've finally cleaned up their act. It's far from them having no impact on the Oscar race.

 

[Drizzle]

...weird, but ok.

Hell, just the 'hot dog finger' universe gave me the most beautiful acting from Jamie ever.

And, the way Condon could show love and frustration over her brother ... let alone her utter disdain yet simple respect to 'Barry' was ten-fold over any emotion in Wakanda.

It's all a matter of opinion. JLC is great in EEAAO, Kerry Condon is great in Banshees of Inisherin. Personally, this one scene from Bassett moved me more than the other performances.

 

[Scarlet Spider]

Maybe the Globes were "meaningless" in the past but they got different people running the organization now and everyone and their agent has said they've finally cleaned up their act. It's far from them having no impact on the Oscar race.

But there's no overlap between the two voting bodies, right? Aren't the Globes still voted on by a bunch of foreign journalist who have nothing to do with the academy?

So how does a Globe win give us any indication as to how the academy will vote?

That is why the guild awards are so important. The same people voting for those are the same ones voting for the Oscars.

Isn't this common knowledge? What am I missing?

 

[Kane52630]

But there's no overlap between the two voting bodies, right? Aren't the Globes still voted on by a bunch of foreign journalist who have nothing to do with the academy?

So how does a Globe win give us any indication as to how the academy will vote?

That is why the guild awards are so important. The same people voting for those are the same ones voting for the Oscars.

Isn't this common knowledge? What am I missing?

Voters watches award shows? They see who won and the speech they gave and that always influences their vote.

James Hong gave one hell of a speech last night and that for sure is going around the news cycle.

 

[Kane52630]

Of course but that's why it's a Oscars race. Everything is influences peoples votes (IE press junkets, speeches, interviews, ads ect ect) and so was The Golden Globes which you think has "virtually no overlap".

Also the Oscar voters start voting on March 2.

 

[Scarlet Spider]

Of course but that's why it's a Oscars race. Everything is influences peoples votes (IE press junkets, speeches, interviews, ads ect ect) and so was The Golden Globes which you think has "virtually no overlap".

Also the Oscar voters start voting on March 2.

Dude, the idea of a Golden Globe speech single handedly winning someone an Oscar seems like a huge stretch.

 

[Kane52630]

Dude, the idea of a Golden Globe speech single handedly winning someone an Oscar seems like a huge stretch.

Me: Golden Globe has some impact and influence on the Oscars race
You: What do you mean Golden Globes speeches automatically wins you the Oscar?

 

[Scarlet Spider]

Me: Golden Globe has some impact and influence on the Oscars race
You: What do you mean Golden Globes speeches automatically wins you the Oscar?

Okay sorry. SOME impact. It still seems weak.

 

[Kane52630]

 

[Kane52630]

 

[Boom]

Picture: EEAAO
Director: Steven Spielberg
Actor: Austin Butler
Actress: Michelle Yeoh
Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan
Supporting Actress: Jamie Lee Curtis

 

[Kane52630]

You know Questlove has to reference the Will Smith slap.

 

[samsnee]

Jamie Lee won the SAG for supporting so Angela may not be a sure thing to win.

 

[emielaen]

Will:
Picture: EEAAO
Director: Daniels
Actor: Austin Butler
Actress: Michelle Yeoh
Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan
Supporting Actress: Jamie Lee Curtis

"Should" (my picks):
Picture: Tar
Director: Todd Fields
Actor: Farrell or Mescal
Actress: Cate Blanchett
Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan
Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon

Tar should also win best original screenplay.

 

[Kane52630]

There's still time to get your picks in:

Join a group
Password: hype

ESPN's Oscar pickems is back. I created a group for us to pick the winners.

Join a group
Password: hype


@flickchick85 @Drizzle @Snow Queen @Shinobi Shaw @Boom @CaptainWagner @samsnee @Prison Mike @antsman41 @Spider-Fan @scarlet-witch @Sawyer @DarkKnight88 @Lily Adler @Albright @Iceman @-Arya- @SwordOfMorning @Sithborg

 

[Kane52630]

For anyone who wants to know how Oscar campaigns are run... *wink* *wink* *cough* *cough*

Matthew Belloni did a great job describing how they take everything into account.

 

[Kane52630]

Watch the Show - Film Independent

The Spirit Awards
The 2023 Film Independent Spirit Awards, hosted by Hasan Minhaj, will take place on Saturday, March 4 at 2:00 pm PT/5:00 pm ET and can be streamed live via:

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Film Independent
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[Kane52630]

THR’s 2023 Oscar Predictions as Final Voting Gets Underway – The Hollywood Reporter