Sci-Fi Avatar: The Way Of Water

[Kane52630]

Previously, Cameron made headlines by seemingly speculating that The Way of Water would have to earn at least $2 billion at the box office just to break even and justify a sequel. “To clarify, I never actually gave it a number,” Cameron said. “I said it would has to be among the highest-grossing films in history and somebody else applied that number and it got picked up. The number is actually less.”

I knew it.

 

[dark_b]

Cameron never said that the movie needs to make 2 billion. The quote is a story he told in an interview. that . It was the conversation he had with Fox in 2013/2014.

 

[DarkKnight88]

Yet even with that it’s still on its way to 2 billion. Someone throw out 3 billion for Avatar 3 to be profitable.

 

[Monsieur Xavier]

Random thought.
There is a mystery about Kiri's father, they are web articles

Spoiler

about it but what about Miles Jr's mother ?!
Quaritch didn't slack on Pandora for sure

 

[moviedoors]

Avatar 2 Deleted This Adorable Sea Creature (Photos) | The Direct

Judging by the folds on that snout, I wouldn’t be surprised if the maw on that cute little guy was a nightmare. It looks very similar to the slinth, which was cut from the first movie and had a similar head.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

I wonder if we will get an Extended Edition of WoW on disc like the first movie.

Preferably in 4K

 

[Bary]

James Cameron Says ‘Avatar 2’ is Profitable and He’ll Make the Sequels – The Hollywood Reporter

Im still rather confused by this break even point Cameron keeps talking about, if the budget ended up around $400 mil including marketing then it just needed $800-$850 mil to break even. By that logic this now has a profit of $400 mil plus. Me thinks Mr Cameron is full of it trying to drum up ticket sales.

 

[DarkKnight88]

Im still rather confused by this break even point Cameron keeps talking about, if the budget ended up around $400 mil including marketing then it just needed $800-$850 mil to break even. By that logic this now has a profit of $400 mil plus. Me thinks Mr Cameron is full of it trying to drum up ticket sales.

?

When have people ever actually gone out only to see a movie cause the director said he needed more money to break even? lol

John Carter would’ve grossed 2 billion as well by that logic.

 

[moviedoors]

?

When have people ever actually gone out only to see a movie cause the director said he needed more money to break even? lol

John Carter would’ve grossed 2 billion as well by that logic.

You don't understand; there must be some ulterior reason that people claim to like these movies.

/s
-----

That whimper we all hear in the distance: it's the sound of all the naysayers over the past decade and change having to deal with the fact that they didn't like a movie once upon a time, but that's IT: their dislike wasn't indicative of some larger trend or lack of cultural currency.

I hate to deal so much in schadenfreude, but goddamnit, I've been hopeful about sequels to this movie for so long, and, to see this second film be successful enough that it opens the floodgates for 3 more movies: it's so satisfying. All the *****ing and ****-talking: all for not. Hope y'all had your fun, cause it's all ****ing over:

We're getting a full five movies now. ****. Yeah.

 

[:eek:]

Avatar: The Way of Water | Stunt Team - YouTube

 

[dark_b]

James Cameron: Avatar 2 Will Turn a Profit at Box Office - Variety
''Sources have told Variety that “Avatar: The Way of Water’s” break-even point was set at roughly $1.4 billion''

James wtf

 

[Bary]

?

When have people ever actually gone out only to see a movie cause the director said he needed more money to break even? lol

John Carter would’ve grossed 2 billion as well by that logic.

what Im getting at is Camerons claims would have to mean the movie cost $500-$600 million or more to make with marketing included and no movie has ever cost that much nor would any studio ok a budget that size.

 

[Dr.]

Im still rather confused by this break even point Cameron keeps talking about, if the budget ended up around $400 mil including marketing then it just needed $800-$850 mil to break even. By that logic this now has a profit of $400 mil plus. Me thinks Mr Cameron is full of it trying to drum up ticket sales.

Reportedly, production cost was between $350M and $450M. And prints & advertising, etc. may have been as much as $200M — over and above production costs. But even adding the higher figures, Avatar 2 should have broken-even back around $1.3B. And if you include secondary revenues (future DVD sales, action figures, theme-park rides, etc.), breakeven was assured much earlier.

 

[Iceman]

$500m domestic very close now. Friday was $11.4m.

 

[Batgirl0202]

Reportedly, production cost was between $350M and $450M. And prints & advertising, etc. may have been as much as $200M — over and above production costs. But even adding the higher figures, Avatar 2 should have broken-even back around $1.3B. And if you include secondary revenues (future DVD sales, action figures, theme-park rides, etc.), breakeven was assured much earlier.

Exactly this.

I've read that the movie had a production cost as high as $500 million and marketing/distribution costs as high as $250 million

Studios typically earn 55% of total international box office, with the rest going to exhibitors/theatres, though that may have changed a bit in the streaming era. Using this math, the film would have to earn roughly $1.5 billion to break even, which it has already done. This means we'll be getting Avatar 3 at the very least...

It kinda begs the question though if these films are even worth it for Disney to keep bankrolling. Assuming Way of Water runs out of gas around $2 billion, Disney will pocket roughly $1.1 billion. If the above costs are correct, the studio is looking at roughly $350 million in profit.

But wait, Cameron also needs to get his share! You can bet his backend profit participation is huge. He's probably looking at a $100 million payday, which brings Disney's banked cheddar down to $250 million. Now that's still a good chunk of change, plus they have all their auxiliary income sources to look forward to as well (streaming subscriptions, physical media sales, TV showings, theme park draws, etc).

However, compare this to Avengers Endgame, where final net profit for Disney has been estimated to be $890 million. Or Infinity War whose net profit was calculated to be $500 million. Or The Force Awakens whose net profit was calculated as $780 million. You see where I'm going with this...

I'm really just thinking out loud haha. Obviously the Avatar franchise is now a jewel in Disney's hat, but just think about how much more profitable these films could be if Cameron could get his budgets under control...

 

[moviedoors]

but just think about how much more profitable these films could be if Cameron could get his budgets under control...

Then they wouldn't be the movies they are.

 

[DarkKnight88]

Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t the budget for 3 already going to be lower because of the years of work already put into the effects and filming of 2 and 3 back-to-back? I think Cameron mentioned working out a lot of the kinks with 2 in terms of learning again.

 

[Batgirl0202]

Then they wouldn't be the movies they are.

I'm talking about the economics of the Avatar films, not their quality. Obviously these movies are ridiculously successful...

Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t the budget for 3 already going to be lower because of the years of work already put into the effects and filming of 2 and 3 back-to-back? I think Cameron mentioned working out a lot of the kinks with 2 in terms of learning again.

Makes sense to me. I can't imagine Disney will want to spend another $600 to $700 million on Avatar 3, considering the second film will probably do roughly two thirds of the first one's box office despite 13 years of pent up demand...

 

[moviedoors]

Makes sense to me. I can't imagine Disney will want to spend another $600 to $700 million on Avatar 3, considering the second film will probably do roughly two thirds of the first one's box office despite 13 years of pent up demand...

The budget for 2 is frontloaded. The tech, the infrastructure, the assets that where developed and will be used in all the films going forward are counted as part of 2's budget.

And two-thirds of the first one's gross will not be sneezed at by a single exec at Disney.

 

[moviedoors]

I'm talking about the economics of the Avatar films, not their quality. Obviously these movies are ridiculously successful...

It's a moot point. The films audiences are responding to are expensive. You hamper their budgets, and they fundamentally won't be the same movies anymore. This is AMC "WALKING DEAD is a big hit, now let's slash the budget for season 2" non-logic.

 

[Batgirl0202]

It's a moot point. The films audiences are responding to are expensive. You hamper their budgets, and they fundamentally won't be the same movies anymore.

My background is in statistics, particularly financial/data analysis, and I've yet to encounter a company that wasn't obsessed with cost/expense ratio versus profit optimization. Which is why we have Trillion Dollar Tech Companies reducing their workforce despite profits in the billions, and why we see companies tweaking the recipes of iconic products to replace cane sugar with cheaper high glucose corn syrup, irrespective of how successful their product line may be.

Hell, even Marvel has gone on record saying they'll be focussing more on "quality rather than quantity" moving forward. Perhaps the cost to profit ratio of their 2022 theatrical releases failed to impress them...

This is AMC "WALKING DEAD is a big hit, now let's slash the budget for season 2" non-logic.

LOL. Your "non-logic" innuendo is more ironic than you probably realize

The bottom line is that Disney had no choice but to release Way of Water and hope for the best. Fox had already allowed Cameron to spend hundreds of millions on the property even before the acquisition took place. And according to Cameron, Avatar 3 is mostly "in the can" so that one will definitely be seeing the light of day as well.

However, the expense/profit ratio of the third film will tell the true tale. If the law of diminishing returns kicks in, which is entirely possible - just look at the box office trajectory of the recent Star Wars films starting after The Force Awakens - you can bet there's gonna be some interesting conversations over at Disney regarding Cameron and his budgets, well before Avatar 4 or Avatar 5 ever see the light of day.

 

[Kane52630]

 

[Shinobi Shaw]

Remember how I said I didn’t see any memes for this movie? I take it back.



I got a good chuckle from this.

 

[moviedoors]

My background is in statistics, particularly financial/data analysis, and I've yet to encounter a company that wasn't obsessed with cost/expense ratio versus profit optimization. Which is why we have Trillion Dollar Tech Companies reducing their workforce despite profits in the billions, and why we see companies tweaking the recipes of iconic products to replace cane sugar with cheaper high glucose corn syrup, irrespective of how successful their product line may be.

Hell, even Marvel has gone on record saying they'll be focussing more on "quality rather than quantity" moving forward. Perhaps the cost to profit ratio of their 2022 theatrical releases failed to impress them...



LOL. Your "non-logic" innuendo is more ironic than you probably realize

The bottom line is that Disney had no choice but to release Way of Water and hope for the best. Fox had already allowed Cameron to spend hundreds of millions on the property even before the acquisition took place. And according to Cameron, Avatar 3 is mostly "in the can" so that one will definitely be seeing the light of day as well.

However, the expense/profit ratio of the third film will tell the true tale. If the law of diminishing returns kicks in, which is entirely possible - just look at the box office trajectory of the recent Star Wars films starting after The Force Awakens - you can bet there's gonna be some interesting conversations over at Disney regarding Cameron and his budgets, well before Avatar 4 or Avatar 5 ever see the light of day.

And the cycle of doubt starts all over again…

 

[Batgirl0202]

And the cycle of doubt starts all over again…

Not sure exactly what you're talking about...

I don't recall anyone here or anywhere else predicting Way of Water was going to fail. I personally feel the brand isn't as relevant as it once was, and the box office does seem to reflect this.

$2 billion is a phenomenal result, but the fact remains that the second film will shed about a third of its predecessor's audience and/or repeat viewings. Sure you can argue the novelty factor of the first film, but we're still talking about a franchise in decline here, not one in ascendance.

If Avatar 3 declines even further - and historical box office statistical data suggests it will - Disney won't be handing Cameron any additional $400 million budgets for future installments. Trust me.

A good parallel to this discussion would be Top Gun Maverick, another legacy sequel to an iconic film. Here's a sequel that capitalized on the original in every way, expanded the global audience for the brand, and only had a reported production/marketing budget of $300 million. Even with Cruise's participation points, the film will still net Paramount roughly $400 million in profit.

Anyone who thinks Disney will continue allowing Cameron to spend twice as much money for half the profit doesn't understand the economics of movie-making...