BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - Part 1

[kguillou]

Its astonishing that we measure films' success by the $1bill mark. Like how last year ASM 2 grossing over 700 mill was considered a disaster. I'm wondering if this is a sign that studios really do need to scale back on tbe budgets of these things.

 

[Pickleweasel]

IF there actually is a tendency brewing towards superhero fatigue, BVS vs Warcraft could let that show. Warcraft is no Edge of Tomorrow or some original movie underdog, it's a huge brand name that's been popular for a good while. Universal will give it a huge marketing push, that old LOTR fever could come rushing back out of nowhere... They won't be competing directly, but they will be competing. They're only 2 weeks apart and they're appealing to the same crowd.

That possibility, along with both Civil War and X-Men Apocalypse coming out less than 2 months later, put a damper on BVS's chances of 1 billion, I think.

So what do you think Warcraft is going to open to, what will be its second weekend and what will be its third?

 

[lukebrodyg]

Its astonishing that we measure films' success by the $1bill mark. Like how last year ASM 2 grossing over 700 mill was considered a disaster. I'm wondering if this is a sign that studios really do need to scale back on tbe budgets of these things.

That applies to Sony and their bloated Spider-man films.

WB, Marvel and Fox are making great returns.

 

[Zoom]

To me, even if the movie is just ok, it can do U$ 1B. If it's great, it's very hard to predict how high it can go!

 

[Nemeres]

Personally, I think your way off. I doubt Warcraft is going to effect BvS and 6 weeks of box office domination could be huge if it has good word of mouth.

I could be, sure. But alternatives to superhero fare (Avatar, Hunger Games, Hobbit, etc) keep pulling in huge numbers and Warcraft has enough brand appeal. I think it's a contender, even more if it's a strong film.

So what do you think Warcraft is going to open to, what will be its second weekend and what will be its third?

I don't know. I don't think it'll outgross BVS, but they'll eat away at each other, they overlap enough. How much depends on both films.

 

[MrMaooz]

I don't know if Warcraft will be gigantic, but if people find it to be a great substitute for Middle Earth, it should make some nice money. As for its effect on BvS' opening weekend, I think it will little to no influence on the OW.

 

[mclay18]

I think opening on Easter weekend might dampen Sunday's grosses though.

 

[rockandrollsoul]

I think opening on Easter weekend might dampen Sunday's grosses though.

If anything, I would think it would increase it.

 

[Pickleweasel]

I think opening on Easter weekend might dampen Sunday's grosses though.

Thursday night and Friday will have a big increase because of good friday. Plus a lot of people are going to have Monday off so it will probably help Sunday's gross. People usually don't celebrate Easter at night, I don't think. Our family just does brunch. Usually over by 2ish which is when people start going to the movies.

 

[dalonewolf]

I think opening on Easter weekend might dampen Sunday's grosses though.

Either way it's still spring break trough out the week after Easter so it'll make it up

 

[MrMaooz]

Mu current predictions.

OW: 175
DOM: 450
Total WW: 1.1 Billion

 

[Herolee10]

Predictions of how Fans will react to the Potential Box Office Results:

1. Makes less than 1 Billion WW= Fans calling this film a complete bomb/failure.

2. Making 1 Billion WW but not meeting the BO Totals for the likes of "The Avengers"= Fans calling this a disappointment.

3. Surpassing the Avengers revenue= Fans being moderately pleased with the results.

 

[dnno1]

Predictions of how Fans will react to the Potential Box Office Results:

1. Makes less than 1 Billion WW= Fans calling this film a complete bomb/failure.

2. Making 1 Billion WW but not meeting the BO Totals for the likes of "The Avengers"= Fans calling this a disappointment.

3. Surpassing the Avengers revenue= Fans being moderately pleased with the results.

If it surpasses Avengers or AoU's performance, haters will still say it was a bad film and a bad idea and use the quality over quantity straw-man argument as a justification.

 

[brownknightrise]

Predictions of how Fans will react to the Potential Box Office Results:

1. Makes less than 1 Billion WW= Fans calling this film a complete bomb/failure.

2. Making 1 Billion WW but not meeting the BO Totals for the likes of "The Avengers"= Fans calling this a disappointment.

3. Surpassing the Avengers revenue= Fans being moderately pleased with the results.

If it makes less than a billion, it will be a bomb/failure though. Maybe not 'Technically', but c'mon.

 

[Greeneyes]

I think BO figures should be kept private and not released to the general public.

Would stop the madness that BO seems to generate.

Close thread.

 

[Greeneyes]

But... I see it doing 1.2 Bil, If it is a great film and has great word of mouth then it could potentially go up to 1.4. Not a great film then 1 Bil just because it's BatSoupWondy blah blah blah.

So to sum up my amazing predictions I think it does more than some of them and less than the one with the thing that had the explosions and the big green monkey.

 

[Val_Zod]

Predictions of how Fans will react to the Potential Box Office Results:

1. Makes less than 1 Billion WW= Fans calling this film a complete bomb/failure.

2. Making 1 Billion WW but not meeting the BO Totals for the likes of "The Avengers"= Fans calling this a disappointment.

3. Surpassing the Avengers revenue= Fans being moderately pleased with the results.

In no reality should Batman v Superman make less than a billion. Something would have to go seriously wrong for that to happen. The Dark Knight and Rises made over a billion with no 3d or Imax release, the international market was much less expanded, and lower ticket prices, and that was just Batman alone. Not to mention, Batman v Superman has a much less competitive release window. Less than a billion would most certainly be a failure from the long term look of things, because that suggest a drop in interest. If DC 2 most iconic characters can't crack a billion together, despite great marketing, build up, expanded and open release, then hope would pretty much be done for WB. So yes, it would be a bomb.


Personally, I don't need this film to outgross Avengers, a billion dollar film, which is well received by critics and audience, and in which I enjoy, would be enough for me.

 

[Iceman]

Less than a billion will be a disappointment when Batman can make a billion on his own even before the superfast overseas box office expansion plus nearly a decade of inflation.

 

[mclay18]

If anything, I would think it would increase it.

I don't know. Most opening weekends for movies, the Sunday grosses dip 30% (or more) from Saturday's numbers unless it's Christmas Day or Mother/Father's Day. Or if you're a behemoth like The Avengers (which only dipped 18% from Saturday) or The Dark Knight (which only dropped 8%). MOS only dropped 0.1% on Sunday, thanks to the Father's Day crowds.

I've looked at several movies that opened on Easter weekend, and the Sunday dropoffs range from 35 - 51% from the preceding Saturdays. It just depends on how well-received BVS is and how well it holds throughout the weekend. WB isn't concerned about it setting the Easter opening weekend (which it will), but whether it'll exceed the first Hunger Games' o.w. numbers.

I think I'm looking too much into this.

 

[Iceman]

WB is most concerned with it doing a number that is ...big!

 

[Rocketman]

I think BO figures should be kept private and not released to the general public.

Would stop the madness that BO seems to generate.

Close thread.

I ABSOLUTELY agree with that. Not because of the fanboy bickering, but because it's none of our business.

We don't even need to know the budgets. Who cares. People discuss this stuff on here like they have an expertise about it. Most people here would have no idea what to do with a million dollars, let alone 200 of them to make a summer movie.

 

[Nemeres]

Lol. That's got nothing to do with it.

 

[Greeneyes]

I ABSOLUTELY agree with that. Not because of the fanboy bickering, but because it's none of our business.

We don't even need to know the budgets. Who cares. People discuss this stuff on here like they have an expertise about it. Most people here would have no idea what to do with a million dollars, let alone 200 of them to make a summer movie.

Imagine after AOU, Star Wars 7 and BvS are released and everyone would be like.."what did it make?, what did it make!, who won!? WHO WON!!!, WHO IS DA BEST!!?!?"

And the studios are just like... "Not tellin ya. Now go away!"

People would still discuss it and argue that Star Wars had beaten Ultron because their mom had seen Star Wars but she didn't bother with Ultron as she said she'd wait for the blu ray, etc etc hahaha.

It's all madness. All of it.

 

[Jumpman]

WB is most concerned with it doing a number that is ...big!

As long as the film's worldwide opening weekend (which this film opens internationally on the same weekend as domestic) is huge, it won't techincally matter how much it does or doesn't do domestically.

If the headline on Sunday/Monday reads "Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice makes 300 million worldwide on its opening weekend" no one's going to care at WB if it didn't surpass AGE OF ULTRON'S opening weekend.

All this film has to do is make serious money worldwide for the 5 weeks it has by itself before CIVIL WAR is released. If the film is at or close to 800 million before CIVIL WAR hits, it's a success. I don't care how anyone spins it.

Great reviews and word of mouth would be nice but let's get real, WB is looking at the money and as to whether or not they can REALLY go full steam ahead with their shared universe.

The perfect scenario is having great word of mouth, great reviews (70-80% on rottentomatoes) and the box office is pure fire for 5 weeks to the point of a billion five worldwide before CIVIL WAR hits.

But, at the end of the day, measure a film's success on whether it makes a billion dollars worldwide is frankly ******ed.

When IRON MAN 3 hit a billion dollars worldwide back in 2013, I knew then that expectations for each film in this genre, based on which characters were in the film, was going to be trouble. GUARDIANS' sequel eventual success is going to make the expectations even worse.

To me, MAN OF STEEL (especially when you factor in how much it killed IRON MAN 3 in home video) was a unqualified success.

 

[Iceman]

It will technically matter. WB still likes the 2/3 of the cash that comes after the opening weekend. Better to get all the cash rather than a bit of it. Or they could pull it on the Sunday. t: And domestic numbers are more important than overseas not only because they are more directly comparable (while overseas are heavily dependant on the exchange rate of the time), the studio also keeps a much bigger perecentage of the gross. But agreed that AoU's opening is irrelevant. They just have to do well on their own terms.

Civil War is too far away now to have that much of an impact. When they were coming out in the same weekend it would have been a disaster (for both) but now it shouldn't be the end of the world. BvS will have made most of its money by then.

Yes they want to make a killing to get their shared universe off the ground. The measure of a normal film making a billion dollars doesn't make sense but for a behemoth like future Avengers & Justice League films, Star Wars films and even Batman solos it is relevant. For AoU for eg $1B would be a disappointment and hopefully we'll be able to say the same for the JLs once BvS has made it's billion.

You say that when those films hit (IM3 and GotG2 in future) it ruined/will ruin expectations but those are based on real numbers. What else should the expectations of future comparable films be based on?

If it was an unqualified success you wouldn't need the caveat of home video sales, that itself is the qualification. I don't want to need to talk about blu-ray sales when BvS figures come out as that means there probably isn't that much to get excited about from its box office numbers (which I don't believe will be the case). I'm note expecting it to go miles over a billion but a billion is not an unrealstic target given what Batman himself has achieved in his last 2 outings and what lesser properties have acheived worldwide recently.