BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - Part 1

[antoineflemming]

Would be pretty sad if BvS does end up surpassing these current numbers but falling short of the Star Wars one. WB's luck in a nutshell imo.

I just want it to do as well as TDK.

 

[Silliminite]

I just want it to do as well as TDK.

I just want it to hit a billion and be generally well-received.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I definitely would like it to be well received but Snyder has a tendency to polarize people.

 

[mclay18]

I'm baffled by JW's gigantic opening. What are the factors, apart from nostalgia, that contribute to an opening THIS big?

1) The actual movie delivered.
2) Word-of-mouth was terrific, as a lot of people were raving about it who went to the Thursday night shows. So people decided to go see it and be part of the conversation, adding to the numbers.
3) Great marketing.
4) Solid reviews.

No one expected JW to explode like it did. BVS could surprise next year, but it has to tick off the boxes and whip up the perfect storm like The Avengers and JW did.

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

1) The actual movie delivered.
2) Word-of-mouth was terrific, as a lot of people were raving about it who went to the Thursday night shows. So people decided to go see it and be part of the conversation, adding to the numbers.
3) Great marketing.
4) Solid reviews.

No one expected JW to explode like it did. BVS could surprise next year, but it has to tick off the boxes and whip up the perfect storm like The Avengers and JW did.

I don't see BvS beating JW record opening but it will still do huge numbers.

 

[steve4991]

It ain't topping JW (although I wish it would!). Star Wars is gonna be the one to beat. If 20 years of not having a dinosaur movie can make the box office explode like that, imagine over 30 years of your favorite, iconic Star Wars characters returning to the screen. BUT! Batman and Supes have a lot going for them. Not only is it a new Batman everyones interested in thats played by an extremely well known actor (no matter how much they hate), there is also a historical aspect here. Not to mention, we still have true marketing to get to, as well as some more well thought out trailers that are sure to sell any innocent bystanders on seeing it as soon as possible. So far I've showed a few people in my office the BvS teaser, who have no interest nor care for movies at all. The response? "That looks good. I'm gonna actually have to make sure I see that one in the theater."

 

[mclay18]

I don't see BvS beating JW record opening but it will still do huge numbers.

WB will be very happy if BVS opens to $145M-$170M. The thing about box office is that it's unpredictable -- no one expected The Avengers or Jurassic World to have $200M+ opening weekends -- but BVS is in a better spot in terms of competition.

 

[Mrs. Wayne]

JW's huge opening came out of nowhere. No one predicted that. Now, with Star Wars, I can easily imagine it making record breaking money as it's got such a big fan base who have been awaiting it and the amount of views its trailers got and the nostalgia. So with BvS, anything can also happen. It could also get a surprised record breaking opening but I feel it's unlikely especially given that it's not opening in the Summer. So an opening of anywhere around 185-190 (at the most) is likely.

 

[JOE]

This movie is still very unpredictable... We haven't seen enough for me to think one way or the other. It's a huge wild card considering it has the potential to make over 1B and give both Avengers movies a run for their money. It also has the potential to land past MOS, but not reach the billion dollar mark if it's not well received and the WOM is terrible. I'd say worst case scenario this movie makes 800M, any less than that is very unlikely in my eyes. Batman and Superman together on the big screen is an epic moment in cinematic history. This movie will do well, the question remains how the other movies do without Supes and Bats filling seats. However, the sky is the limit for this movie as well, and that's dangerous. Not crazy about the March release though, still not sold on that yet...

 

[Val_Zod]

I think people need to look at the openings in Spring again.

We have films that have opened at 152 million, 147 million, and 116 million. And now, Furious 7, which opened in the same time frame as BvS opens, is on course to outgross the first Avengers. Captain America The Winter Soldier made as much as it due much in part to it's Spring release. I am quite confident that film would not have gross nearly as much if it was released in the crowded May/June release window.

March is an advantageous release window at this point.

And everyone talks about how Star Wars will break the record. Star Wars is releasing in a period in which no film broke 100 million. The final Hobbit film couldn't even do it. Star Wars will more or less be the film that does break 100 mill, but to expect record breaking numbers on the first weekend is an even more uphill battle because of it's release window being a period where people christmas shop, travel to meet family members, or it's too cold to go to the movies.

I'm not saying Star Wars won't break JW record(Stands a better chance than all the other films releasing this year), but between it and BvS, I say BvS stands a better chance, purely because it's being released in a much more proven release window.

 

[DlAMONDZ]

It ain't topping JW (although I wish it would!). Star Wars is gonna be the one to beat. If 20 years of not having a dinosaur movie can make the box office explode like that, imagine over 30 years of your favorite, iconic Star Wars characters returning to the screen. BUT! Batman and Supes have a lot going for them. Not only is it a new Batman everyones interested in thats played by an extremely well known actor (no matter how much they hate), there is also a historical aspect here. Not to mention, we still have true marketing to get to, as well as some more well thought out trailers that are sure to sell any innocent bystanders on seeing it as soon as possible. So far I've showed a few people in my office the BvS teaser, who have no interest nor care for movies at all. The response? "That looks good. I'm gonna actually have to make sure I see that one in the theater."

Be honest, did you ever think MOS was going to open at 100? I know I didn't. MOS was a tough sell and not only did it open at 100, it set the month record

Not saying it's going to do it, but anything can happen. The awareness is already there, and it'll only grow once the marketing heats up. A month out WB is gonna go ham with a 4th and final trailer and an avalanche of tv spots

You can open big in the spring, it's been proven. December not so much

 

[Jonwo]

Be honest, did you ever think MOS was going to open at 100? I know I didn't. MOS was a tough sell and not only did it open at 100, it set the month record

Not saying it's going to do it, but anything can happen. The awareness is already there, and it'll only grow once the marketing heats up. A month out WB is gonna go ham with a 4th and final trailer and an avalanche of tv spots

You can open big in the spring, it's been proven. December not so much

December is all about legs rather than OW. Star Wars doesn't need to beat Avengers or Jurassic World OW in order to achieve a huge domestic total.

March has proven to a lucrative month and BvS is opening on Good Friday so many people will see it through the Easter Weekend and there's no competition for at least two weeks so BvS will dominate for at least three weekends

 

[mclay18]

December is all about legs rather than OW. Star Wars doesn't need to beat Avengers or Jurassic World OW in order to achieve a huge domestic total.

If I recall correctly, big December movies have suppressed openings but great legs. Highest grossing ones tend to have a final gross that has a 4 - 5x multiplier (or higher). Even if SW:TFA opens to $100M on opening weekend, it could leave theaters with over $500M domestic, depending on its playability.

[...] Batman and Superman together on the big screen is an epic moment in cinematic history. This movie will do well, the question remains how the other movies do without Supes and Bats filling seats. However, the sky is the limit for this movie as well, and that's dangerous. Not crazy about the March release though, still not sold on that yet...

Alice in Wonderland and Furious 7 proves that studios can pull in summer-sized grosses during March and April. The latter especially, since BVS also opens Easter weekend.

 

[mithravishnu]

If JW can open to 200+m weekend BvS may has higher CHANCE to break 200m OW. I can't talk about domestic BO as I am a foreigner. So I am talking about general Asian countries which have a taste for ACTION movies and event films. MOS overseas marketing was pathetic. I have only seen a poster on the scheduled theater a week ago. News paper advertisements were very poor. Only one on the releasing day. If WB goes full on the BvS they can get it work like marvel movies.
because
1. The first time Batman and Superman on same film. (WW and Aquaman are not so popular)
2. The first time Batman and Superman FIGHTING onscreen.
3. The first time Batman in 3D. (Asians still love 3D.t: Mos was renamed here as SUPERMAN 3D in newspaper advts)
If WB goes full on marketing overseas it can crack 800+ overseas.

 

[dalonewolf]

If JW can open to 200+m weekend BvS may has higher CHANCE to break 200m OW. I can't talk about domestic BO as I am a foreigner. So I am talking about general Asian countries which have a taste for ACTION movies and event films. MOS overseas marketing was pathetic. I have only seen a poster on the scheduled theater a week ago. News paper advertisements were very poor. Only one on the releasing day. If WB goes full on the BvS they can get it work like marvel movies.
because
1. The first time Batman and Superman on same film. (WW and Aquaman are not so popular)
2. The first time Batman and Superman FIGHTING onscreen.
3. The first time Batman in 3D. (Asians still love 3D.t: Mos was renamed here as SUPERMAN 3D in newspaper advts)
If WB goes full on marketing overseas it can crack 800+ overseas.

That's good thinking

 

[Jonwo]

If I recall correctly, big December movies have suppressed openings but great legs. Highest grossing ones tend to have a final gross that has a 4 - 5x multiplier (or higher). Even if SW:TFA opens to $100M on opening weekend, it could leave theaters with over $500M domestic, depending on its playability.

Alice in Wonderland and Furious 7 proves that studios can pull in summer-sized grosses during March and April. The latter especially, since BVS also opens Easter weekend.

December openers benefit from the fact that January is a slow month so they can pretty much still do decent business. Mission Impossible Ghost Protocol ended up doing $200m from its $12m limited release OW and $29m OW wide release for example and Avatar did $760m from a $77m OW

 

[Silliminite]

December openers benefit from the fact that January is a slow month so they can pretty much still do decent business. Mission Impossible Ghost Protocol ended up doing $200m from its $12m limited release OW and $29m OW wide release for example and Avatar did $760m from a $77m OW

That's absolutely staggering. I hope BvS ends up having good legs.

 

[DlAMONDZ]

If JW can open to 200+m weekend BvS may has higher CHANCE to break 200m OW. I can't talk about domestic BO as I am a foreigner. So I am talking about general Asian countries which have a taste for ACTION movies and event films. MOS overseas marketing was pathetic. I have only seen a poster on the scheduled theater a week ago. News paper advertisements were very poor. Only one on the releasing day. If WB goes full on the BvS they can get it work like marvel movies.
because
1. The first time Batman and Superman on same film. (WW and Aquaman are not so popular)
2. The first time Batman and Superman FIGHTING onscreen.
3. The first time Batman in 3D. (Asians still love 3D.t: Mos was renamed here as SUPERMAN 3D in newspaper advts)
If WB goes full on marketing overseas it can crack 800+ overseas.

MOS also had a terrible release date

What was WB thinking releasing it a week before a kids movie and a zombie movie coming off TWD? Not too mention Despicable Me 2?

 

[Jonwo]

MOS also had a terrible release date

What was WB thinking releasing it a week before a kids movie and a zombie movie coming off TWD? Not too mention Despicable Me 2?

In hindsight, WB should have put Pacific Rim in June and MOS in July but to be fair, I don't think anyone expected WWZ to do well due to problems it had. It makes me wonder whether Wonder Woman will remain in June 2017.

 

[DlAMONDZ]

In hindsight, WB should have put Pacific Rim in June and MOS in July but to be fair, I don't think anyone expected WWZ to do well due to problems it had. It makes me wonder whether Wonder Woman will remain in June 2017.

Let's hope it doesn't. If MOS is any indication it'll get eaten alive by even bigger movies in Toy Story 4 & Despicable Me 3. There's also that new Pirates movie with Depp. Wonder Woman is an underperformance waiting to happen if it stays in June

 

[Val_Zod]

Let's hope it doesn't. If MOS is any indication it'll get eaten alive by even bigger movies in Toy Story 4 & Despicable Me 3. There's also that new Pirates movie with Depp. Wonder Woman is an underperformance waiting to happen if it stays in June

August would be a great period. The only other notable film I can think of coming out in that period is Pacific Rim 2.

 

[Marvin]

In hindsight, it was one of the worst spots a film this big has ever had, historically speaking. That much competition money during a films second weekend, from two separate sections of said films target demos, combined with solid reviews, and a slew of other big films in subsequent weeks topped off by another whopper animation movie. Only for WB to pull 3D/Imax screens for Prim.
Crazy it still made near 300 domestic.
One can only imagine it had Last April/August. Another 15 mill or so would have been within reach at worst imo.

 

[dalonewolf]

I don't see BvS beating JW record opening but it will still do huge numbers.

LMao

 

[DlAMONDZ]

In hindsight, it was one of the worst spots a film this big has ever had, historically speaking. That much competition money during a films second weekend, from two separate sections of said films target demos, combined with solid reviews, and a slew of other big films in subsequent weeks topped off by another whopper animation movie. Only for WB to pull 3D/Imax screens for Prim.
Crazy it still made near 300 domestic.
One can only imagine it had Last April/August. Another 15 mill or so would have been within reach at worst imo.

It was. If WB pushes it up a week it easily over 300 domestic and possibly 700+ WW

 

[Saitou Hajime]

I think it'd probably do AoU numbers. Despite the World's Finest/proto Justice League novelty and immense hype, the March release date and serious subject matter might prevent it from pulling TA/F7/JW-type surprise runs.