BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - Part 1

[Val_Zod]

I think it'd probably do AoU numbers. Despite the World's Finest/proto Justice League novelty and immense hype, the March release date and serious subject matter might prevent it from pulling TA/F7/JW-type surprise runs.

This has been stated countless times in this thread, Spring is not a debilitating release date. The fact it has no competition for weeks means it can see a huge haul through potential strong legs. Heck, one of the films you just brought up, F7, made most of it's money during the Spring period, and look to surpass the original Avengers.

 

[Jekecy]

Jurassic World just did one billion worldwide in 13 days.

I'm increasingly getting more and more impressed at its performance. That's not even something I'd predict for Avengers, Star Wars, or BvS.

The next year is going to very interesting in gauging just how strong these long-running properties are.

 

[fake]

Jurassic World just did one billion worldwide in 13 days.

I'm increasingly getting more and more impressed at its performance. That's not even something I'd predict for Avengers, Star Wars, or BvS.

The next year is going to very interesting in gauging just how strong these long-running properties are.

It only beat Furious 7's pace because it got a day and date release in China and has made almost 200M there so far. Furious 7 didn't get a China release until its 13th day.

China's expansion really screws up these "fastest to a given number" milestones worldwide. Admittedly, JW's performance is amazing, but its WW performance is actually no better than Furious 7 (which itself is awesome).

 

[FeedOnATreeFrog]

^Yeah, the number doesn't really mean anything since most big movies don't have worldwide releases. Here in China we got Age of Ultron way later than the rest of the world. Fury Road still hasn't come out yet (not sure it even will...).

 

[Arrowshieldfan]

Furious 7 was released April 3 which is pretty close to the March 23 released date for BvS next year. I sure WB is expecting to make a lot of money from this despite the mixed review for MOS and not the most beloved director

 

[Marvin]

^Yeah, the number doesn't really mean anything since most big movies don't have worldwide releases. Here in China we got Age of Ultron way later than the rest of the world. Fury Road still hasn't come out yet (not sure it even will...).

I'm always confused myself why this is always so broadcast inspite that huge circumstantial difference in most films.
That being said, a billion isn't easy anyway you slice it.

 

[HaplessHenchman]

Do we know yet what kind of worldwide release schedule BM vs SM will have? I know it opens in the UK a week before the U.S. but what about other countries.

 

[JOE]

It's all about the marketing. If they loosen up and show some bada** snippets from the Superman/Batman fight, along with a brief shot of the trinity fighting together... There's nothing that can stop this movie.

 

[Jonwo]

Do we know yet what kind of worldwide release schedule BM vs SM will have? I know it opens in the UK a week before the U.S. but what about other countries.

UK is date and day with US AFAIK, I imagine as it opens on Good Friday, it'll be day and date for many places with perhaps 1-2 days before in some places like France and Australia.

 

[Silliminite]

^ Yeah it has been said before on here, but BvS should release day and date in most territories because of Easter weekend.

 

[HaplessHenchman]

According to Imdb, here is the release schedule for the movie:

--------------------------------
Belgium 23 March 2016
Spain 23 March 2016
France 23 March 2016
Argentina 24 March 2016
Azerbaijan 24 March 2016
Brazil 24 March 2016
Denmark 24 March 2016
Greece 24 March 2016
Iraq 24 March 2016
Italy 24 March 2016
Kazakhstan 24 March 2016
Lebanon 24 March 2016
Netherlands 24 March 2016
New Zealand 24 March 2016
Portugal 24 March 2016
Russia 24 March 2016
Ukraine 24 March 2016
Estonia 25 March 2016
UK 25 March 2016
Ireland 25 March 2016
Israel 25 March 2016
Latvia 25 March 2016
Malaysia 25 March 2016
Romania 25 March 2016
Singapore 25 March 2016
USA 25 March 2016
Germany 26 March 2016
Mexico 26 March 2016
Sweden 6 May 2016
--------------------------------------------
Link here: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2975590/releaseinfo

I don't know where I got that the film was releasing in the UK a week before the US. Thought I read it somewhere...

Anyway, the big one missing from this list is China. Haven't all the big recent releases (JW, AOU, etc...) released in China the same or close to the rest of the world? If BM v SM doesn't, how much could that affect its WW box office?

 

[JOE]

What's the release date in China?

 

[Urich Leeds]

I'm not entirely sure that list is correct. But even if it is, I wouldn't worry about China. Man of Steel got a Chinese release, and that wasn't confirmed until VERY late in the game:

http://variety.com/2013/film/global...erseas-with-china-set-for-june-20-1200493104/

Typically, with the Chinese release, it takes a tad more legal wrangling. Hell, TDK didn't even get a Chinese release thanks to conditions Warners couldn't meet. However, things seem to be fine now since TDKR and MOS both did.

 

[HaplessHenchman]

I'm not entirely sure that list is correct. But even if it is, I wouldn't worry about China. Man of Steel got a Chinese release, and that wasn't confirmed until VERY late in the game:

http://variety.com/2013/film/global...erseas-with-china-set-for-june-20-1200493104/

Typically, with the Chinese release, it takes a tad more legal wrangling. Hell, TDK didn't even get a Chinese release thanks to conditions Warners couldn't meet. However, things seem to be fine now since TDKR and MOS both did.

Yes, I'm not sure if it is 100% accurate either. Although I like the closeness of the dates for the release.

I think it would be better for WB if they can get somewhere close to March 23rd for China also. It would only help the box office I would think.

 

[Zordan]

where is Serbia?

 

[Greens]

According to Imdb, here is the release schedule for the movie:

--------------------------------
Belgium 23 March 2016
Spain 23 March 2016
France 23 March 2016
Argentina 24 March 2016
Azerbaijan 24 March 2016
Brazil 24 March 2016
Denmark 24 March 2016
Greece 24 March 2016
Iraq 24 March 2016
Italy 24 March 2016
Kazakhstan 24 March 2016
Lebanon 24 March 2016
Netherlands 24 March 2016
New Zealand 24 March 2016
Portugal 24 March 2016
Russia 24 March 2016
Ukraine 24 March 2016
Estonia 25 March 2016
UK 25 March 2016
Ireland 25 March 2016
Israel 25 March 2016
Latvia 25 March 2016
Malaysia 25 March 2016
Romania 25 March 2016
Singapore 25 March 2016
USA 25 March 2016
Germany 26 March 2016
Mexico 26 March 2016
Sweden 6 May 2016
--------------------------------------------
Link here: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2975590/releaseinfo

I don't know where I got that the film was releasing in the UK a week before the US. Thought I read it somewhere...

Anyway, the big one missing from this list is China. Haven't all the big recent releases (JW, AOU, etc...) released in China the same or close to the rest of the world? If BM v SM doesn't, how much could that affect its WW box office?

I built part of that list. China is missing because it's incredibly difficult to get good release info as a non-Chinese person. The actual list is way longer but not every country has made their release date public yet, and WB doesn't come out with the full release schedule until January/February.

WB is very consistent with their release dates. Most of their movies come out worldwide in a span of three days. Much better than other studios.

 

[sf2]

Sweden 6 may 2015.

 

[mithravishnu]

According to Imdb, here is the release schedule for the movie:

--------------------------------
Belgium 23 March 2016
Spain 23 March 2016
France 23 March 2016
Argentina 24 March 2016
Azerbaijan 24 March 2016
Brazil 24 March 2016
Denmark 24 March 2016
Greece 24 March 2016
Iraq 24 March 2016
Italy 24 March 2016
Kazakhstan 24 March 2016
Lebanon 24 March 2016
Netherlands 24 March 2016
New Zealand 24 March 2016
Portugal 24 March 2016
Russia 24 March 2016
Ukraine 24 March 2016
Estonia 25 March 2016
UK 25 March 2016
Ireland 25 March 2016
Israel 25 March 2016
Latvia 25 March 2016
Malaysia 25 March 2016
Romania 25 March 2016
Singapore 25 March 2016
USA 25 March 2016
Germany 26 March 2016
Mexico 26 March 2016
Sweden 6 May 2016
--------------------------------------------
Link here: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2975590/releaseinfo

I don't know where I got that the film was releasing in the UK a week before the US. Thought I read it somewhere...

Anyway, the big one missing from this list is China. Haven't all the big recent releases (JW, AOU, etc...) released in China the same or close to the rest of the world? If BM v SM doesn't, how much could that affect its WW box office?

Good job

 

[Kanye West]

Coming out may 6 in Sweden. Wasn't the the release date before the March 25 one? And the release date for civil war

 

[KangConquers]

I'm expecting a high 50s/ low 60s tomato meter, and love it or hate it word of mouth. It is a Zak Snyder film after all. Some will consider this the best Superhero film ever. Others will call it garbage.

Opening will be very high. I'm expecting $175 M, with a multiplier close to Man of Steel's 2.5. So $435 M.

China, I'm going to say it can triple Man of Steel's $63 M, for $190 M.

Outside of those markets the other foreign territories should be able to match Iron Man 3's China-less $685 M total.

$435 M + $190 M+ $685 M= $1.31 B
If tomato meter is significantly higher than expected, add 15%. If lower, subtract 15%.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Opening will be very high. I'm expecting $175 M, with a multiplier close to Man of Steel's 2.5. So $435 M.

Man of Steel didn't have a 2.5 multiplier. There is $12m in Thursday preview money you missed. From the total after its first Sunday, the calculation goes $291m/$128m = 2.27 multi. It had some pretty bad legs.

 

[DlAMONDZ]

Are those dates legit?

Sweden is getting ****ed hard if it is

 

[GreenKToo]

I expect at least 175 ow. From there it depends on how good it is, but it will no doubt have a huge opening.

 

[kguillou]

Wait TDK wasnt released in China?? And that film had a whole badass Hong Kong sequence...my goodness, imaginw how much more money they could've made!

 

[Zordan]

I am happy that Serbia, even if it's one of the *****iest contries ever, get all the movies before USA, I even had some in my small town before the offical premier. So I guess I am seeing it on 25th. Plus they are building Cineplexx here so hell yeah.