BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - - - Part 14

[Stark Bauer]

I'm betting it's 3rd week gross is about $20M, give or take like $2M.

The BO seems to be balancing out somewhat, I don't think BvS will make less than 14m this weekend but no more than 21 m.

20 sounds about right. I'm going to live dangerously and wager it turns out just below 20m.

$19.38m (-62%)

For comparisons sake Furious 7 made 29.1M in its 3rd weekend

MOS did 20.7m

We have been comparing BvS BO data to F7 and using it as a benchmark. I am going to introduce another benchmark another comparable movie. Watchmen.

Except instead of comparing them week for week, instead, look at Watchmen's first week as BvS' second week and that would be a sign of where things might be going:

Wk 1 $55,214,334	-00.0%	$55,214,334	
Wk 2 $17,817,301	-67.7%	$85,751,993	
Wk 3 $6,801,114	      -61.8%	$98,140,886	
Wk 4 $2,732,439	       -59.8%	$103,273,462	
Wk 5 $1,074,320	      -60.7%	$105,346,566

 

[Lily Adler]

So Melissa McCarthy may overtake it this weekend.

 

[WilliamK99]

I think movie is dropping 60 to 65% this weekend...

 

[NotSoLongAgo]

So Melissa McCarthy may overtake it this weekend.

There's also Hardcore Henry

 

[wobbly]

So Melissa McCarthy may overtake it this weekend.

Atm, it's a bit of a coin toss tbh. I'd say BVS is the more likely to edge it, but probably not by much.

 

[jokesonm3]

Anyone know when we'll get the Friday numbers?

 

[Logan0327]

There's also Hardcore Henry

hardcore henry is tracking in the single digits lol

 

[wobbly]

Anyone know when we'll get the Friday numbers?

Might be some early estimates in the evening or morning. I don't think the actuals are put out until Monday though?

 

[jokesonm3]

Might be some early estimates in the evening or morning. I don't think the actuals are put out until Monday though?

Estimates are good enough.

 

[Logan0327]

So Melissa McCarthy may overtake it this weekend.

Universal’s R-rated Melissa McCarthy comedy The Boss drew $985K from 7 PM shows last night at 2,533 theaters, however, Warner Bros.’ Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice continued to reign supreme with a No. 1 take of $2.7M at 4,256.
http://deadline.com/2016/04/the-weekend-box-office-batman-v-superman-melissa-mccarthy-1201734178/

 

[Stark Bauer]

Universal’s R-rated Melissa McCarthy comedy The Boss drew $985K from 7 PM shows last night at 2,533 theaters, however, Warner Bros.’ Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice continued to reign supreme with a No. 1 take of $2.7M at 4,256.
http://deadline.com/2016/04/the-weekend-box-office-batman-v-superman-melissa-mccarthy-1201734178/

From Deadline:

The Thursday night take for The Boss slots below McCarthy’s R-rated comedies Spy ($1.5M), Tammy ($1.3M) and The Heat ($1M), but those were all released in the summer when there’s better access to crowds. When Boss is compared to her February 2013 R-rated title Identity Thief, which made $409K on its preview night, it fared quite well. Identity Thief went on to open to $34.6M.

The Boss is making at least 21.0M this weekend ($7M per day)

 

[Logan0327]

which is still #2 below bvs

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

I didn't realize Identity Theft had that big of an OW. Clearly, The Boss and Hardcore Henry are bigger competition for BvS' young male demo than God Is Not Dead 2.

which is still #2 below bvs

isn't BvS number for the entire day?

 

[Tymminator]

The BO seems to be balancing out somewhat, I don't think BvS will make less than 14m this weekend but no more than 21 m.

20 sounds about right. I'm going to live dangerously and wager it turns out just below 20m.

$19.38m (-62%)

For comparisons sake Furious 7 made 29.1M in its 3rd weekend

MOS did 20.7m

We have been comparing BvS BO data to F7 and using it as a benchmark. I am going to introduce another benchmark another comparable movie. Watchmen.

Except instead of comparing them week for week, instead, look at Watchmen's first week as BvS' second week and that would be a sign of where things might be going:

Wk 1 $55,214,334	-00.0%	$55,214,334	
Wk 2 $17,817,301	-67.7%	$85,751,993	
Wk 3 $6,801,114	      -61.8%	$98,140,886	
Wk 4 $2,732,439	       -59.8%	$103,273,462	
Wk 5 $1,074,320	      -60.7%	$105,346,566

Wow, Watchmen really dropped like a rock, but BvS had such a big opening, even if it drops similar It won't look quite as bad.

 

[Holy Slapper]

I think he meant 2.1 million. Anyone hear back on how huge an impact Finland's massive audience drop will be on the international box office of the movie?

The huge drops from Denmark, Estonia, Latvia and Luxembourg also will crush this movie's chances of real international success

One more comment like that and we'll shut down your Angry Birds and Clash Of Clans...

 

[Stark Bauer]

which is still #2 below bvs

A 60% drop would result in 20.5m. THIS IS TOO HIGH.

It's more likely going to be 65% or 18M

 

[Poni_Boy]

A 60% drop would result in 20.5m. THIS IS TOO HIGH.

It's more likely going to be 65% or 18M

Sounds about right. I think it'll top out at $22 mil

 

[Stark Bauer]

Wow, Watchmen really dropped like a rock, but BvS had such a big opening, even if it drops similar It won't look quite as bad.

True. I don't think the totals will be the trend to use for BvS, the percentage drops are what I was focusing on

 

[Stark Bauer]

Sounds about right. I think it'll top out at $22 mil

57% drop? Is that your high estimate/best case scenario?

 

[Poni_Boy]

57% drop? Is that your high estimate/best case scenario?

Yep

 

[johnboy3434]

My revised weekend and total predictions (now based only off of a comparison with Furious 7, ignoring Clash of the Titans)...

Friday: $7.66 million (+181%)
Saturday: $11.7 million (+53%)
Sunday: $7.07 million (-39.7%)
THIRD WEEKEND TOTAL: $26.5 million (-48.5%)

TOTAL PROJECTED DOMESTIC GROSS: $340 million

 

[Stark Bauer]

My revised weekend and total predictions (now based only off of a comparison with Furious 7, ignoring Clash of the Titans)...

Friday: $7.66 million (+181%)
Saturday: $11.7 million (+53%)
Sunday: $7.07 million (-39.7%)
THIRD WEEKEND TOTAL: $26.5 million (-48.5%)

TOTAL PROJECTED DOMESTIC GROSS: $340 million

Thanks for your concise numbers. I will plug in my own numbers using your format

Friday: $5.25 million (-65% from last week)
Saturday: $7.8 million (-65%)
Sunday: $4.9 million (-65%)
THIRD WEEKEND TOTAL: $18.0 million (-65%)

TOTAL PROJECTED DOMESTIC GROSS: $330 million

 

[WilliamK99]

My revised weekend and total predictions (now based only off of a comparison with Furious 7, ignoring Clash of the Titans)...

Friday: $7.66 million (+181%)
Saturday: $11.7 million (+53%)
Sunday: $7.07 million (-39.7%)
THIRD WEEKEND TOTAL: $26.5 million (-48.5%)

TOTAL PROJECTED DOMESTIC GROSS: $340 million

So a movie goes from a nearly 70% drop to less than a 50% drop in one week. Unless they fixed the movie and made it better over the past week, this isn't going to happen...

 

[Stark Bauer]

I wonder if it is possible for BvS to drop 70% two weeks in a row?
(FYI 3rd weekend 15.4M)
Anybody think this is possible? One thing I learned about this movie is to throw out all expectations.

 

[lukebrodyg]

I think it's possible it holds better since its second weekend drop was relative to its huge OW.