BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - - - Part 14

[bapi]

-60% drop this weekend, 295M after sunday and then 66-75% next weekend... I think BvS will finish around 325M DOM now.

 

[db85usa]

Is this the hardest a movie has crashed and burned at the box office, seems amazing that a movie could make 400+ million opening weekend and struggle to 850 to 900 million....

Possibly. Here's a comparison over the last 10 years of Superhero films that grossed over $250M domestic and their 3rd weekends and it is in order from least to greatest as far as final domestic total goes, too.

The Amazing Spider-Man -68.6% $10.8M
Man of Steel -49.8% $20.7M
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice -60% or -65% $18M-20M
Guardians of the Galaxy -40.4% $25.1M
Captain America: The Winter Soldier -38.0% $25.5M
Iron Man 2 -49.3% $26.3M
Spider-Man 3 -50.1% $29M
Deadpool -44.9% $31.1M
Iron Man -37.8% $31.8M
The Dark Knight Rises -42.5% $35.7M
Iron Man 3 -50.7% $35.7M
Avengers: Age of Ultron -50% $38.8M
The Dark Knight -43.2% $42.6M
Marvel's The Avengers -46.0% $55.6M

Given everything that has happened with this film, it should have landed somewhere between The Dark Knight and The Avengers 3rd weekend. This, IMO is still considered a box office failure even though it was heavily front loaded for opening weekend. The studio can pull their smoke and mirrors stuff all they want but at the end of the day, BvS vastly under performed. The social networking mentions alone should have put this film easily past $200M OW if it just had good critic reviews.

What this tells me is BvS may have a difficult time getting past $850M WW. Because of the high opening, its drops are worse than Man of Steel and that went on to gross $668 WW. I'd probably adjust my numbers a bit to look like this:

$330M dom, $520M foreign, $850M worldwide. This is what its on pace to close with.

 

[Limonade]

This total doesn't surprise me. I can't remember a time where BvS rode any type of positive momentum over this 3 year period. It was doom and gloom the moment MoS ended and it certainly carried over to every casting announcement that came after it. Then the 1 year pushback left even more doubt about this movie for the skeptics to ride out. Hell, Man of Steel had way more positivity heading into the movie that BvS could of ever dreamed of. MOS went downhill the moment the embargo lifted in 2013 and BvS rode those coattails. I've never seen expectations so high with people who yet, found every reason not to like it.

Audiences are use to the Marvel Avengers style action and rapid pace setting movies. Ever since Iron man 3, every movie has been at a winning pace. A lot of people expected Avengers type action and wanted to see the Superman and Batman duke it out and see a huge Justice League formation in the 3rd act. Didn't get it. Instead they got a dark and moody film that was a platform for the DCEU yet to take shape. The rotten reviews only sealed that fate. I'm shocked this movie is making as much as it is givin the despite of the DCEU from the beginning.

But it won't take much. I say all WB needs to do is temper the expectations and realize 2 world building films with brand new characters won't get you 1+ billion. There's so much more to take care of first. Stay the course and reap the benefits later. It was all about Justice League anyway. That's all we've heard about since 2009. If JL does 800mil, then consider rebooting if you must.

There were skepticism after MoS. One that I remember was again.... should Zack Snyder be driving this train? The responses, like Zack Snyder's most recent movies, are more of the same.

Give him one more shot at Justice League? I wouldn't. The Box Office predictions won't be so nice to WB anymore--giving them the benefit of the doubt.

It's crazy that JL is on schedule with little change up to the line up expecting a different result after the last two attempts.

 

[Tra-El]

I don't think there's anything they can do to increase the box office take of the current plan. IMO, they will probably do better to let it be and move forward than trying to tinker with it and expect a better result at the box office.

Either let it move forward or just stop it. But much has already been invested in JL1 counting on the revenue from BVS that it's probably too late. But I'm in the minority that enjoyed BVS and look forward to the story continuing.

Suicide Squad and Wonder Woman are said to be connected to BvS and Justice League. Snyder even said he added the dream sequence late and added in the photo for Wonder Woman in BvS also, so we're going to get origins of that nature in Wonder Woman as well. Wondy is the Joker card. If her movie works, this will easily be right back on track.

 

[Arach Knight]

I have returned to this thread for vindication. Nearly one year ago, I predicted a box office take that nearly matches this film's current standing. I was accused of trolling, and being a Marvel fanboy. It seems that my reasoning was sound, as were my numbers. There is still a chance for the film to make a good $70 million more than my predictions, so my little moment here may be brief, but I hope that in the future none will be so quick to accuse me of trolling just because I don't give glowing predicitions. Here is hoping that Wonder Woman does better.

Spoiler

Spoiler

Spoiler

 

[Clark-Kent]

I have returned to this thread for vindication. Nearly one year ago, I predicted a box office take that nearly matches this film's current standing. I was accused of trolling, and being a Marvel fanboy. It seems that my reasoning was sound, as were my numbers. There is still a chance for the film to make a good $70 million more than my prediction, so my little moment here may be brief, but I hope that in the future, none will be so quick to accuse me of trolling just because I don't give glowing predicitions. Here is hoping that Wonder Woman does better.

If you go through the old threads a lot of people predicted lower number as well. I remember constantly telling this one guy on here that BvS was by no means guaranteed to make a billion. He would even say stuff like "even if it sucks it is Batman v Superman" so is guaranteed a billion. No... It was guaranteed a good opening but that's it.

 

[Doctor Jones]

From the Variety article posted yesterday:

Not Sure about Justice League specifically.

On topic:

Scott Mendelson ‏@ScottMendelson 4h4 hours ago BoxOffice: #BatmanVSuperman Had Smaller 3rd Friday Than Tim Burton's #Batman

How is this a better thing? The last thing these properties need is more corporate handling on it instead of actual artists with a vision.

The more I think about it, as much as the Nolan films were appreciated in their time, this movie makes me feel I took Nolan's films for granted.

These films are just headed on a collision course.

 

[Tra-El]

There were skepticism after MoS. One that I remember was again.... should Zack Snyder be driving this train? The responses, like Zack Snyder's most recent movies, are more of the same.

Give him one more shot at Justice League? I wouldn't. The Box Office predictions won't be so nice to WB anymore--giving them the benefit of the doubt.

It's crazy that JL is on schedule with little change up to the line up expecting a different result after the last two attempts.

JL needs to play out and nothing is going to change. What people seem to be forgetting is that JL isn't the next film to hit. Those who are tired of Snyder will get a break from his directing style when we get Ayers Suicide Squad and Jenkin's Wonder Woman. If there's any a time for a fresh directing styles it's now. Good thing it's set up that way. I think Wonder Woman can right the ship with one big tug from her Lasso of Truth.

 

[bapi]

WW finish 850-880M so will even lose to Spider-Man 3. DOM total will be under Batman Forever+inflation.

 

[Tra-El]

I have returned to this thread for vindication. Nearly one year ago, I predicted a box office take that nearly matches this film's current standing. I was accused of trolling, and being a Marvel fanboy. It seems that my reasoning was sound, as were my numbers. There is still a chance for the film to make a good $70 million more than my prediction, so my little moment here may be brief, but I hope that in the future, none will be so quick to accuse me of trolling just because I don't give glowing predicitions. Here is hoping that Wonder Woman does better.

Your images aren't working. Where did you have it at? Personally, I cringed Everytime somebody would laugh and gurantee a billion. About 2 months before release, I believe I responded to maybe jokesonme (?) If I can remember and saying a billion isn't guranteed and we need to pump the breaks. Givin how this thing got mangled in the critics, it's doing the numbers it should with bad reviews and audiences being divisive.

I had BvS between $875 mil-900. I was always leery on the negative momentum this film built over 3 years.

 

[bapi]

JL needs to play out and nothing is going to change. What people seem to be forgetting is that JL isn't the next film to hit. Those who are tired of Snyder will get a break from his directing style when we get Ayers Suicide Squad and Jenkin's Wonder Woman. If there's any a time for a fresh directing styles it's now. Good thing it's set up that way. I think Wonder Woman can right the ship with one big tug from her Lasso of Truth.

Honestly WW should have very little impact on JL. She was already introduced to audience so it's not like with The Avengers where they were building anticipation.

And from my personal perspective - it's a movie directed by a tv director with cast & crew which includes a Game of Thrones/Fant4stic DP and actors like Danny Huston. I think it could be a fine war romance but don't really have high expectations. I understand that fans are like: "Ohh, finally Wondie has her own movie!" but I wouldn't expect more than 500-550M WW incl. China.

 

[Tra-El]

If you go through the old threads a lot of people predicted lower number as well. I remember constantly telling this one guy on here that BvS was by no means guaranteed to make a billion. He would even say stuff like "even if it sucks it is Batman v Superman" so is guaranteed a billion. No... It was guaranteed a good opening but that's it.

Exactly. I want to pinpoint my post questioning those fans. I may have to find it one day. That's a lot of posts though lol.

 

[Clark-Kent]

Your images aren't working. Where did you have it at? Personally, I cringed Everytime somebody would laugh and gurantee a billion. About 2 months before release, I believe I responded to maybe jokesonme (?) If I can remember and saying a billion isn't guranteed and we need to pump the breaks. Givin how this thing got mangled in the critics, it's doing the numbers it should with bad reviews and audiences being divisive.

I had BvS between $875 mil-900. I was always leery on the negative momentum this film built over 3 years.

Yeah, jokes basically said that if it was transformers bad it was still guaranteed to make a billion. No matter how bad it was, it would still make a billion, blah blah. I always thought in order to be a billion or billion + it had to be a well received movie.

 

[bapi]

DOM with 2016 inflation (but obviously it should be a little higher with more IMAX/3D tickets):

Batman - 550.5M
Batman Returns - 341.3M
Batman Forever - 368M
Batman & Robin - 203.4M
Batman Begins - 278.6M
The Dark Knight - 646.2M
The Dark Knight Rises - 489.8M


Of all these Batman movies BvS will only beat two. That's dissapointing. I was definitely expecting 370-390M. At least. After all BvS was supposed to be Warners' biggest movie since TDKR but now it won't even beat American Sniper DOM. Then you look at OS and with that very good release date and new WB contract in China... Again I was expecting 200-250M there. Honestly when you make a movie which includes Batman, Superman and Wonder Woman and despite IMAX, 3D and China it still can't make 1B worldwide... That's just not good enough.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

A mixed reception to Man of Steel
Over-confidence (BATMAN'S in it... it'll be fine)
A sloppy marketing effort
Toxic critic reviews/WOM.

WB have no one to blame for this but themselves.

 

[Pickleweasel]

Really fell fast

 

[TheVileOne]

I'm thinking it will finish under $850 million worldwide now, but we'll see.

 

[Bats123]

I'm thinking it will finish under $850 million worldwide now, but we'll see.

Jungle Book is coming out early in some places and i think that's for sure gonna put a stop to BvS i honestly dont think it'll even reach Zootopia.

 

[Arach Knight]

Your images aren't working. Where did you have it at? Personally, I cringed Everytime somebody would laugh and gurantee a billion. About 2 months before release, I believe I responded to maybe jokesonme (?) If I can remember and saying a billion isn't guranteed and we need to pump the breaks. Givin how this thing got mangled in the critics, it's doing the numbers it should with bad reviews and audiences being divisive.

I had BvS between $875 mil-900. I was always leery on the negative momentum this film built over 3 years.

I fixed the links, but I'll post the images here for convenience. I had domestic at $280 million and worldwide at $732 million. My domestic is a bit closer to the mark since the film is currently at $272 million here. I am a bit off on the global take, which is currently at $747 million. It was odd how so many people here at SHH thought that just because the film would have Batman, Superman and Wonder Woman in one film that the film would automatically beat out every other comic book film to date. The film is struggling to pass Deadpool let alone topple The Dark Knight Rises or The Avengers.

Spoiler

Spoiler

Spoiler

 

[Spiderdevil]

I don't think Wonder Woman will right any ship, to be honest. Her movie is so far removed from the current timeline of events that just occurred in BvS. It sounds like a very isolated and contained movie. If it does well with general audiences, that would be great. But within the bigger picture of the DCEU... I don't think it'll do much to flesh it out or explain events that we just saw unfold.

Yup, it's DCEU's version of TFA

 

[punishermax]

Word to the wise in this thread, talk only of box office and box office performance. Bashing the film as it once again has descended into will be bad for those involved.

Lee and others have warned everyone plenty of times. There are plenty of other threads to discuss your feelings on Snyder, the story, etc.

 

[antoineflemming]

Word to the wise in this thread, talk only of box office and box office performance. Bashing the film as it once again has descended into will be bad for those involved.

Lee and others have warned everyone plenty of times. There are plenty of other threads to discuss your feelings on Snyder, the story, etc.

The mods actually said that? Wow. All I've ever seen them do is tell the pro-BvS people to stop criticizing, bashing, and insulting the anti-BvS people. I've never seen any message directed towards those who didn't like the film.

 

[The Joker]

I fixed the links, but I'll post the images here for convenience. I had domestic at $280 million and worldwide at $732 million. My domestic is a bit closer to the mark since the film is currently at $272 million here. I am a bit off on the global take, which is currently at $747 million. It was odd how so many people here at SHH thought that just because the film would have Batman, Superman and Wonder Woman in one film that the film would automatically beat out every other comic book film to date. The film is struggling to pass Deadpool let alone topple The Dark Knight Rises or The Avengers.

Spoiler

Spoiler

Spoiler

Ah back in the days when people were so positive this would hit a billion easily.

 

[punishermax]

The mods actually said that? Wow. All I've ever seen them do is tell the pro-BvS people to stop criticizing, bashing, and insulting the anti-BvS people. I've never seen any message directed towards those who didn't like the film.

They did.

This is the BATMAN V SUPERMAN BOX OFFICE THREAD....

That means you discuss the Box Office results and predictions for the movie BATMAN V SUPERMAN....it DOES NOT MEAN you discuss if DC movies are better than Marvel movies....it DOES NOT MEAN you discuss what WB plans to do next....it DOES NOT MEAN you discuss the good and or bad points of the BATMAN V SUPERMAN movie....it means you discuss the BOX OFFICE FOR THE MOVIE BATMAN V SUPERMAN

 

[Poni_Boy]

Im so curious why they seemed to give up on this movie post release. There are so many ways to boost ticket sales it really couldn't have hurt.