BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - Part 2

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]488879[/split]

 

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]477359[/split]

 

[Superchan]

If they do as good of a job as they did with MOS's marketing I see BvS having no trouble breaking the opening weekend record.

 

[jokesonm3]

Well here's hoping that once the review embargo lifts up util the opening weekend is finished on Sunday that the reviews still remain fresh

 

[Fallen Angel]

If they do as good of a job as they did with MOS's marketing I see BvS having no trouble breaking the opening weekend record.

I have no doubt Snyder and WB know how to market something as big as this .WB do it on a regular basis and MOS marketing was good. Viral marketing would be great way to start.

 

[mclay18]

I think it's unrealistic for BVS to crack a $100 million opening day. That $91M o.d. record for the final HP film was astonishing, but that weekend was incredibly front-loaded.

As long as BVS matches Furious 7 ($147M) or The Hunger Games ($152M), that would be a terrific opening. The movie would have to have terrific word-of-mouth and excitement that Jurassic World and The Avengers generated in order to reach that coveted $200M number.

And if some naysayers say that the spring opening cripples BVS' chances of hitting $200M, the first Avengers came out when school was mostly in session.

 

[jokesonm3]

Well the thing about the Friday opening record is that BvS opens during the 2016 Easter weekend and the film that opened on this years Easter was none other than Furious 7, in fact a lot of box office analysts noticed that Friday openings during good Friday tend to be extremely better then the average Friday for F7 whereas Easter Sunday (just like F7) tend to have a slightly less box office then a regular Sunday.

So due to the 2016 Easter weekend im banking on BvS doing incredibly well on the good Friday box office well slightly under-performing by a bit on Sunday therefore relying heavily on Friday.

Furious 7 this year pretty much gave us all a good glimpse on how BvS can perform financially on the Easter weekend, although to be fair that film while only beating MoS domestically by less then $100m, its international box office was mind bogglingly high to the point where it not only crossed the $1B mark but its china run actually out performed its domestic run which is truly impressive.

 

[Val_Zod]

Furious 7 this year pretty much gave us all a good glimpse on how BvS can perform financially on the Easter weekend, although to be fair that film while only beating MoS domestically by less then $100m, its international box office was mind bogglingly high to the point where it not only crossed the $1B mark but its china run actually out performed its domestic run which is truly impressive.

I don't expect BvS to have as high a international take. I expect a more evened out take of around 400mish domestic, 600mish os. Could be more, but I think these are the floors.

 

[jokesonm3]

I don't expect BvS to have as high a international take. I expect a more evened out take of around 400mish domestic, 600mish os. Could be more, but I think these are the floors.

Well yes but if a film like the final hobbit movie for example which was at its best 'ok' (60% on Rotten Tomatoes) can still make a staggering $700 million at the international box office then i highly believe that a film like BvS with the hype levels far out beating the final hobbit film will make even more then that, especially since BvS has a good total of 6 weeks of clear weekends of major competition until civil war releases to back that theory up.

However me personally as long as BvS makes:

Domestic: $400 million

International: $700 million

Worldwide: $1.1 billion

then ill be more than happy with the outcome and the future of the DCEU.

 

[Val_Zod]

Well yes but if a film like the final hobbit movie for example which was at its best 'ok' (60% on Rotten Tomatoes) can still make a staggering $700 million at the international box office then i highly believe that a film like BvS with the hype levels far out beating the final hobbit film will make even more then that, especially since BvS has a good total of 6 weeks of clear weekends of major competition until civil war releases to back that theory up.

However me personally as long as BvS makes:

Domestic: $400 million

International: $700 million

Worldwide: $1.3 billion

then ill be more than happy with the outcome and the future of the DCEU.

Well, Jungle Book is getting alot of great buzz,and that could take a bite out of BvS. Mind you, that's a good 3 weeks later, so hardly an issue.

As for what 'm saying, I'm not expecting only 400m and 600m, rather that is the floor I think for the film. It can conceivably make more. Won't be surprised if it made 500m+ domestic, and 900m+ OS. Because of the overseas expansion, making a billion is extremely easy for a big tentpole.

 

[DlAMONDZ]

I think it's unrealistic for BVS to crack a $100 million opening day. That $91M o.d. record for the final HP film was astonishing, but that weekend was incredibly front-loaded.

As long as BVS matches Furious 7 ($147M) or The Hunger Games ($152M), that would be a terrific opening. The movie would have to have terrific word-of-mouth and excitement that Jurassic World and The Avengers generated in order to reach that coveted $200M number.

And if some naysayers say that the spring opening cripples BVS' chances of hitting $200M, the first Avengers came out when school was mostly in session.

Yea, that HP record ain't going down anytime soon. That March record is a lock doe

 

[jokesonm3]

Well, Jungle Book is getting alot of great buzz,and that could take a bite out of BvS. Mind you, that's a good 3 weeks later, so hardly an issue.

As for what 'm saying, I'm not expecting only 400m and 600m, rather that is the floor I think for the film. It can conceivably make more. Won't be surprised if it made 500m+ domestic, and 900m+ OS. Because of the overseas expansion, making a billion is extremely easy for a big tentpole.

Agreed with this, Jungle book does look like something that could be a real bother with BvS, however inside out did beat Jurassic world on its 3rd week i believe and still made a healthy powerful box office even with inside out, and since thats 3 weeks so 21 days as long as BvS crosses the billion dollar mark by then (which 3 films as of this year easily did in lower days) then the rest of the weeks is just extra revenue

 

[Sharkboy]

well Cavil is no Pratt or Downey Jr and I think UNCLE proved that. I'm betting WB is going to focus a tad more on Affleck and Batman leading up to the film, which makes sense considering from day 1, most of the buzz and publicity, (negative or otherwise) has centered around him. I think if Affleck nails this role and (be it his doing or not) the film makes serious bank, they'll 100% go with making him the centerpiece of the whole DCCU movement; end credit cameos, beefed up guest roles in other films, a fully greenlit trilogy that every other film will have to move around and maybe even a push from WB to have Affleck feature in other big tentpoles (unlikely considering when he's not doing Batman he'll be doing his own movies) It's all a bit hypothetical...but as someone who's been in Afflecks camp since Mallrats and Chasing Amy, it's pretty surreal and I hope he can pull it off.

 

[DlAMONDZ]

Put Cavill in JW and it still makes bank. Actors aren't really draws anymore bruh, UNCLE would've flopped even if Cruise stayed on. The only actor that's a draw right now is The Rock, and even then his Hercules movie flopped

I don't expect BvS to have as high a international take. I expect a more evened out take of around 400mish domestic, 600mish os. Could be more, but I think these are the floors.

I agree with you, 400M/600M are the floors for this. Unless it drops off a cliff ala Spidey 3 I see this clearing 400 domestic. Oversees is hard to predict. It can make 800M+ or 500M

 

[JOE]

I see this doing TDKR numbers, which is great.

 

[Zordan]

2 billion, easy.

 

[joeshmow014]

Really it all depends on the opening weekend...that will determine how big it's run will be...initially I was thinking a conservative OW of $180+M but now I'm starting to think it's going to be a monster OW a record breaker $220M...when WB turns on the marketing with a third trailer in December probably with the new Star Wars movie showing off Doomsday, a possible Super Bowl spot in January and the commercial spots during March madness...the awareness of this movie is going to be off the charts and the anticipation is going to be unheard of.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I don't know if this can double the worldwide gross of MOS just be adding a Batfleck.

It should cross a billion though.

 

[Marz69]

Put Cavill in JW and it still makes bank. Actors aren't really draws anymore bruh, UNCLE would've flopped even if Cruise stayed on. The only actor that's a draw right now is The Rock, and even then his Hercules movie flopped

Agreed. People went to JW for the dinos.

 

[Marz69]

Really it all depends on the opening weekend...that will determine how big it's run will be...initially I was thinking a conservative OW of $180+M but now I'm starting to think it's going to be a monster OW a record breaker $220M...when WB turns on the marketing with a third trailer in December probably with the new Star Wars movie showing off Doomsday, a possible Super Bowl spot in January and the commercial spots during March madness...the awareness of this movie is going to be off the charts and the anticipation is going to be unheard of.

Trailers during star wars will be a boost for BvS for sure which is huge considering the hype is already there. I definitely think they do March madness. Not sure about a superbowl spot, but I hope so. Maybe they'll do a commercial with food or something kind of like this...

[YT]DtEjQKLDi4w[/YT]

... but a diet (superman) v regular (batman) coke. That could be fun

 

[mclay18]

Yea, that HP record ain't going down anytime soon. That March record is a lock doe

Yep, it is.

My current domestic estimate is this:

Friday: $71M-$75M
Saturday: $49M-$53M (-31%)
Sunday: $35M-$39M (-29%)

O.W.: $155M-$167M

If it has a THG or CA:TWS type hold -- a 2.75X multiplier is good for these movies -- BVS should have a terrific $426M domestic gross. Or if it's frontloaded like the FF series, the gross would be around $370M+.

 

[jokesonm3]

I wonder how big both Batman and Superman are in China?

 

[Knight-Tale]

People say actors don't draw numbers anymore but that obviously isn't the case nowadays
Chris Pratt and RDJ are box office draws
They make even the most mediocre film a must see
Henry Cavill just isn't big enough to push this movie to a huge record breaking weekend. I mean hell it took Batman quite a few tries and positive word of mouth before it topped a billion with TDK and TDKR. You could even say Christian Bale wasn't the draw of those movies but the villains were.

Its gonna be hard for Affleck to carry a huge tentpole movie like this it can't just be all Batman and Superman carrying the film since we saw how Man of Steel performed in spite of a lot of hype on it breaking a billion.

I'm somewhere between 800-900mil right now
There just isn't quite an Avengers level hype for this film.

 

[jokesonm3]

People say actors don't draw numbers anymore but that obviously isn't the case nowadays
Chris Pratt and RDJ are box office draws
They make even the most mediocre film a must see
Henry Cavill just isn't big enough to push this movie to a huge record breaking weekend. I mean hell it took Batman quite a few tries and positive word of mouth before it topped a billion with TDK and TDKR. You could even say Christian Bale wasn't the draw of those movies but the villains were.

Its gonna be hard for Affleck to carry a huge tentpole movie like this it can't just be all Batman and Superman carrying the film since we saw how Man of Steel performed in spite of a lot of hype on it breaking a billion.

I'm somewhere between 800-900mil right now
There just isn't quite an Avengers level hype for this film.

Mate no offence but it doesn't matter how 'big' Cavill and Affleck are, people are gonna watch this film for one main reason only:

Batman and Superman fighting.

And not how much 'fame' they have for an opening weekend, how big was Chris Pratt before GOTG? because all i see are the lego movie fans and the parks and recreations fans yet GOTG made bank, why? because it was a funny and entertaining film with some really good legs and NOT because pratt starred in it.

And finally, it doesn't have Avengers level hype?? this is THE most anticipated film of 2016 and were currently in a year where we have 3 films crossing the $1 billion mark with relative ease, not to mention its opening on the Easter 2016 weekend, a time where families want to go out and maybe go to the theatres to watch a film, and what's good that playing then? BvS, coupled with the fact that this films competition free for the next 6 weeks till civil war and the fact that Easter this year opened with F7 a film that made $1.5 billion.

So with all those factors how does BvS only make 800-900mill only?

 

[rockandrollsoul]

People say actors don't draw numbers anymore but that obviously isn't the case nowadays
Chris Pratt and RDJ are box office draws
They make even the most mediocre film a must see
Henry Cavill just isn't big enough to push this movie to a huge record breaking weekend. I mean hell it took Batman quite a few tries and positive word of mouth before it topped a billion with TDK and TDKR. You could even say Christian Bale wasn't the draw of those movies but the villains were.

Its gonna be hard for Affleck to carry a huge tentpole movie like this it can't just be all Batman and Superman carrying the film since we saw how Man of Steel performed in spite of a lot of hype on it breaking a billion.

I'm somewhere between 800-900mil right now
There just isn't quite an Avengers level hype for this film.

You couldn't be more wrong.