BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - Part 2

[Marvin]

Obviously not lol, just domestically. I'm guessing AOU numbers.

If this movies get's or opens higher than either Avengers movie(itself not being a justice league movie). I imagine WB will be pretty pleased.

 

[jokesonm3]

SpiderMan 3 was number one at the box office for 2 weeks as compared to MoS.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=spiderman3.htm

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=superman2012.htm

 

[jokesonm3]

If this movies get's or opens higher than either Avengers movie(itself not being a justice league movie). I imagine WB will be pretty pleased.

Expensive Champagne and Caviar would be splurged at the WB private yacht party near the Malta's if that happened.

Tsujihara's gonna get well knackered.

 

[fake]

SpiderMan 3 was number one at the box office for 2 weeks as compared to MoS.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=spiderman3.htm

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=superman2012.htm

That talks more to competition than anything else.

For example, in 2015 Jurassic World destroyed everything and made 650M but only spent 3 weeks at #1, AOU which made 450M spent only 2 weeks at #1. The movie to spend most weekends at #1 with 4 consecutive weekends was Mockingjay 2 which will finish with a lower gross than MoS.

 

[jokesonm3]

That talks more to competition than anything else.

For example, in 2015 Jurassic World destroyed everything and made 650M but only spent 3 weeks at #1, AOU which made 450M spent only 2 weeks at #1. The movie to spend most weekends at #1 with 4 consecutive weekends was Mockingjay 2 which will finish with a lower gross than MoS.

Yeah but Mockingjay 2 compared to JW & AOU barely had hype to begin with even as the last entry to the series, folks didn't care about that franchise anymore.

 

[fake]

Yeah but Mockingjay 2 compared to JW & AOU barely had hype to begin with even as the last entry to the series, folks didn't care about that franchise anymore.

Yup, just saying that spending X number of weeks at #1 is not the be all and end all.

 

[jokesonm3]

Yup, just saying that spending X number of weeks at #1 is not the be all and end all.

I agree with you there but having less competition would be a benefit for the film.

 

[Jekecy]

Like Bay, the movies unite audiences just fine. The discussion as far as I'm concerned is that of an extremely finite amount of the audience we like to call critics. An artists makes something for himself and his audience and whether critics accept or understand this is what it is. Jackson Pollock could tell you all about that, seeing as how critics took a while to decide what his audience already knew.
If everyone that loves nolan has been doing so from a place of bias that could easily be questioned too if someone wanted to I suppose. The idea that it doesn't exists is the issue. What arbitrates this is the masses, an entire world of biases from every which way makes it then as fair as one could ask.
My measure of accomplishment in art, is the communication of finding an audiences and speaking to them. The kid that can paint his mother's favorite crayola at will. The techno dj that can captivate an entire generation in ways mozzarts old stuff does absolutely nothing for. Seeking out the bias and catering to those people, the mastery of art is connecting to an your audience in my artistic opinion. Your audience likes to laugh, you make them laugh well vs make a so called 'good movie' by whomever at the time decides what that is. Why we let some tea spoon of the world audience somehow let their personal opinion decide any of these conversations...I'm not really cool with but that's beside the point I suppose.

Well for one, their opinion is held to a higher standard for the simple fact it is their job to critique any and every aspect of their respective industry. As opposed to the common layman who may only experience 20% of what the professionals have to endure. Naturally, we tend to defer to "experts" for a more informed opinion.

But it's far from the be-all, end-all. As you stated in your opening sentence, Bay has and will continue to rake in billions. That is in spite of the critics mauling his work. Audiences have decided for themselves their opinion holds no value in that respect, so that's just one example of the masses rejecting the so-called elite.

Not sure what this part of the topic has to do with Zack, but I did come in late so there's a good chance I've missed something.

As for why the discussion has brought this upon Zack and no one else. I have a feeling it might have to do with the fact that this discussion is about this his follow up to his last film. Otherwise people would be bringing this up on some other person. Some people don't like his style and they are bound to not see past that again(admittedly) regardless of if the movie is 'worthy' of praise or not. It happens. That it happens with critics and we can't see past that enough to not let them as in JRob here, inform our discussions in this place..again not a fan. Is what it is as you say. I'm not really one to bring it up.

One needs to ask themselves not if all those 2007 films made money, clearly they did, but rather how much more any of these films would have made with less competition. All those movies were big closers to mega trilogies so perhaps the numbers they pulled in is technically on the lower end for them vs what they could have made with no competition. We've already seen the difference between MoS' numbers and a superman Reboot with far less comp. All those 2007 examples could have made more, I argue this in light of how much more each of their prior sequels made, films which themselves in fact and truly performed ‘wonderfully’ as you say. About a hundred million more it seems... With that and to answer your proposition in simplest terms, perhaps competition did play a role, I wouldn’t rule it out.

That's a question with no limit. As you know, there are too many factors and variables which play into the final figures. Impossible to make a standardized figure with this market. I'm not one to play the box office game, so I would only chime in with a maxim that dictates most successes, whether it be financially or critically; you do well enough that your performance (in whatever respect) is so indisputable that it's never called into question. Regardless of its other faults.

MOS fell close enough to the "middle" in nearly all criteria that it has attracted one of the most polarizing opinions of any recent modern blockbuster. As with other films of similar performance, the debate even existing and lasting for so long already speaks volumes.

With risk of speaking for everyone, I know I'm not the only who has fingers crossed we don't tread the same territory with this film. For the sake of the DCEU.

 

[Marvin]

Well for one, their opinion is held to a higher standard for the simple fact it is their job to critique any and every aspect of their respective industry. As opposed to the common layman who may only experience 20% of what the professionals have to endure. Naturally, we tend to defer to "experts" for a more informed opinion.

I for one listen to various people discuss movies only to find out they are considered critics. Like you watch those guys from 'What the flick' all of them celebrated critics and they are just talking like laymen, especially when it comes to humor, it's insane to me personally. But there is an idea that what makes them happy means more, like they are working on a higher level... Like that joke that takes them back to their childhood and really makes them laugh is any more important than the one that takes joe average(a person the artists no doubt intended). I personally think it's all well captured in the finale to ratatouille. I get all this with science magazine, I just don't appreciate it with art tbh. This moment of something speaking to us...Especially with comedy and perfectly encapsulated when adult critics start waxing about kids movies. But that's me. I personally may not 'trust' one laymen over another or a critic but I do differ the consensus of opinion of the majority over the teaspoon sample when it comes to 'if something is liked' and nothing more. Again, not science mag.

MOS fell close enough to the "middle" in nearly all criteria that it has attracted one of the most polarizing opinions of any recent modern blockbuster. As with other films of similar performance, the debate even existing and lasting for so long already speaks volumes.

With "critics" maybe. Impossible to detect how much more so it has with fans than any other film tbh. I'm just having a hard time finding a big movie with a competition paradigm that compares to mos. I for one see our community very split on these thor movies...im3 etc. This one only so much more no doubt due to being that much more relevant, important even. There is an external reason to fight it's success for some, just as much as there is a reason to fight for it..etc. More people have a take as well, but I digress.

The final point however, all this talk of falling just short in financial performance only for this competition anomaly to be over looked is what sticks out to me. Again it fell just short of big money whilst at the same time making big. If you are making the normal amount of money a big film makes in your second weekend yet you are sitting at number ten that weekend, something is going on. The film's multiplier is down just a few decimals from normal and I fear the obvious reason is right there. Like anything it's not absolute, however enough to be readily pointed to, yet almost never is.

I agree, it would be unfortunate for similar to happen again however I predict the only chance of this happening(financially) is if they face the same competition paradigm.

 

[Jekecy]

I personally may not 'trust' one laymen over another or a critic but I do differ the consensus of opinion of the majority over the teaspoon sample when it comes to 'if something is liked' and nothing more. Again, not science mag.

You don't think that's what people generally do? The critics are relied upon mostly by the average joe who are on the fence or are curious about what their next seat purchase should be. Which is only rational considering if one were to actively participate in viewing every movie that's released, a significant portion of your income would have to be devoted to experiences not guaranteed to be enjoyable in the end. In this respect I do not blame people for placing a higher vote of confidence in the "pros" who have actually spent time viewing not only one movie, but its competitors within the same time frame. They're simply making an informed decision on probability (hence the beauty of RT).

Within the construct of general public reception, I think that's where the critic's power generally ends. Again someone like Bay would not be successful in this business otherwise.

With "critics" maybe. Impossible to detect how much more so it has with fans than any other film tbh.

One would only need to read what is the consistent discourse whenever the film is brought up in talkbacks. Not just for this site, but all over the web, or during conventions where fanboys reside. You genuinely don't think it's fairly easy to find the pulse of the conversation on any given CBM?

I'm just having a hard time finding a big movie with a competition paradigm that compares to mos. I for one see our community very split on these thor movies...im3 etc. This one only so much more no doubt due to being that much more relevant, important even. There is an external reason to fight it's success for some, just as much as there is a reason to fight for it..etc. More people have a take as well, but I digress.

The final point however, all this talk of falling just short in financial performance only for this competition anomaly to be over looked is what sticks out to me. Again it fell just short of big money whilst at the same time making big. If you are making the normal amount of money a big film makes in your second weekend yet you are sitting at number ten that weekend, something is going on. The film's multiplier is down just a few decimals from normal and I fear the obvious reason is right there. Like anything it's not absolute, however enough to be readily pointed to, yet almost never is.

I agree, it would be unfortunate for similar to happen again however I predict the only chance of this happening(financially) is if they face the same competition paradigm.

The dates are locked in and most of the promo material for the March films are out. Do you think it faces similar circumstances? At this point the only game-changer would be reviews.

 

[Marvin]

Within the construct of general public reception, I think that's where the critic's power generally ends.

If that's all it was used for that would be an interesting discussion. However what of the matter of using their consensus to determine if a movie was good or successful in retroactive discussion?

One would only need to read what is the consistent discourse whenever the film is brought up in talk backs. Not just for this site, but all over the web, or during conventions where fanboys reside. You genuinely don't think it's fairly easy to find the pulse of the conversation on any given CBM?

I don't. Again the world has become so small that a single thought can be allowed to influence others. I fear the 'pulse' of the conversation is far from pure these days. As for fanboys, there is alot of group think and agenda so yea I do find it kinda hard to find the 'truth' of the matter in simple observation. As for what the general audience thinks, well there are billions of them literally. The pulse you find on the 'internet' and the one you find at the water cooler and the one you find at the dinner table vary I suppose is my second point.

The dates are locked in and most of the promo material for the March films are out. Do you think it faces similar circumstances? At this point the only game-changer would be reviews.

I think this one faces very different circumstances, thus using mos(and ignoring it's epic dvd run)'s box office improperly would be very much a folly. I don't see competition fueling a 65% drop this time if you will. As for what faraci and the rest of them think being a game changer, again I find that sad but probably true.
I do think if they have a TDK like solid hit then the skies the limit. People flock to success like flies these days.
Novelty is also the wild card here, it's the ace in the hole for the mega movies and this one is sitting on a gold mine. Who knows.

 

[JOE]

I wonder if WB will spend money on a Superbowl spot for this movie? I can see Civil War throwing a few million on it to advertise Spider-Man for the first time. What elese can BvS show us we haven't already seen and would want spoiled for us? Typically they're going to show almost all new footage at that premium rate, what else could they show us? I really don't want to see any more of the movie.

 

[jokesonm3]

I wonder if WB will spend money on a Superbowl spot for this movie? I can see Civil War throwing a few million on it to advertise Spider-Man for the first time. What elese can BvS show us we haven't already seen and would want spoiled for us? Typically they're going to show almost all new footage at that premium rate, what else could they show us? I really don't want to see any more of the movie.

Snyder has been promoting the hell outta his Doritos sponsored Super Bowl competition.

Couple that with these two new TV spots that released for the NFL games leading up to the Super Bowl.

I have a strong gut feeling that Batman v Superman will be at the Super Bowl.

 

[mithravishnu]

I hope WB is going to market this movie very well in Over Seas . MoS had very weak marketing in OS.

 

[Marvin]

Snyder has been promoting the hell outta his Doritos sponsored Super Bowl competition.

Couple that with these two new TV spots that released for the NFL games leading up to the Super Bowl.

I have a strong gut feeling that Batman v Superman will be at the Super Bowl.

The MCU never misses an opportunity to go ham at the superbowl(historically). I expect them to pull out their 'trump card' during this one, perhaps spiderman. WB seemingly feels differently about the need for the bowl(especially given the cost), however their movies tend to open far enough away that they may have a point. They have used it in the past for spring snyder movies for though. And they do have a new ceo....
BvS marketing was built for the superbowl crowd imo.

In 2013/2014 an interesting technique was presented. A short spot(cause bowls spots are limited to a handful of seconds honestly), that of a short spot and a link to their bigger piece of marketing waiting online somewhere. Like RDJ staring at the screen or something. The result of this being a full on youtube trailer that has the eye/attention grabbing effect of 'superbowl'.
Truthfully I think wb shouldn't have had that trailer two. Ignoring the so called 'dulling' effect it had, I think that same trailer could have utilized this bowl technique wonderfully. What's more I fear for what wb can truly wow people with at this point without giving away that much more.
I don't know we'll see.

The big networks pass around the broadcasting rights for the bowl. Last year was universal(such a great year for these folks). The thing about WB is they don't have a major network like the rest of them(see CW/HBO). It will probably be fox this year.

 

[jokesonm3]

The MCU never misses an opportunity to go ham at the superbowl(historically). I expect them to pull out their 'trump card' during this one, perhaps spiderman. WB seemingly feels differently about the need for the bowl(especially given the cost), however their movies tend to open far enough away that they may have a point. They have used it in the past for spring snyder movies for though. And they do have a new ceo....
BvS marketing was built for the superbowl crowd imo.

In 2013/2014 an interesting technique was presented. A short spot(cause bowls spots are limited to a handful of seconds honestly), that of a short spot and a link to their bigger piece of marketing waiting online somewhere. Like RDJ staring at the screen or something. The result of this being a full on youtube trailer that has the eye/attention grabbing effect of 'superbowl'.
Truthfully I think wb shouldn't have had that trailer two. Ignoring the so called 'dulling' effect it had, I think that same trailer could have utilized this bowl technique wonderfully. What's more I fear for what wb can truly wow people with at this point without giving away that much more.
I don't know we'll see.

The big networks pass around the broadcasting rights for the bowl. Last year was universal(such a great year for these folks). The thing about WB is they don't have a major network like the rest of them(see CW/HBO). It will probably be fox this year.

If that is the case then it makes me wonder wht 'big gun' will get the most attention to all those Football fans, Wonder Woman in BvS or Spiderman in Civil War.

Given that the GA are mostly comic book readers or keep in touch with cbm related news like the rest of us on hype, they've already seen Spiderman a bunch of times in film so seeing him teaming up with Cap and Tony's gonna be awesome.

But i have a strong feeling that a small cheeky glimpse of Wonder Woman kicking ass will get a lot of buzz on Social Media, it's honestly amazing how much buzz she's getting everytime she appears in footage, especially the latest trailer lol.

Really believe that Wonder Woman's gonna be the key to winning that Social Media buzz during the Super Bowl.

 

[Marvin]

If that is the case then it makes me wonder wht 'big gun' will get the most attention to all those Football fans, Wonder Woman in BvS or Spiderman in Civil War.

Given that the GA are mostly comic book readers or keep in touch with cbm related news like the rest of us on hype, they've already seen Spiderman a bunch of times in film so seeing him teaming up with Cap and Tony's gonna be awesome.

But i have a strong feeling that a small cheeky glimpse of Wonder Woman kicking ass will get a lot of buzz on Social Media, it's honestly amazing how much buzz she's getting everytime she appears in footage, especially the latest trailer lol.

Really believe that Wonder Woman's gonna be the key to winning that Social Media buzz during the Super Bowl.

It's an interesting thing Spiderman. On one hand, how excited can the audience be to see a character they've seen over and over and recently rebooted...and not that well received. On the the other, linking stuff to the avengers and mcu success has an undeniable success, I suppose we'll see just what it yields.

As for wb's marketing plan. If I had my way, I would have dropped that 'trailer two' right now. When the news cycle has slowed a bit and they have the chatter all to themselves, plus it would have felt better for me specially. More importantly(and this is key) I would have cut that trailer in half. Stop at about 'what have you done' similar to that fan edit. Not for any spoiler avoided reasons but because they could have then dropped that second half during the 2nd quarter of the Superbowl and sat pretty as the world reacted to the trinity shot and doomsday chatter. The concept already sold, that would have been the time for the money shots. Then just coast.
That's what I would have done.
We'll have to see what they do instead, could still be even more effective.

 

[rogbngp]

If that is the case then it makes me wonder wht 'big gun' will get the most attention to all those Football fans, Wonder Woman in BvS or Spiderman in Civil War.

Given that the GA are mostly comic book readers or keep in touch with cbm related news like the rest of us on hype, they've already seen Spiderman a bunch of times in film so seeing him teaming up with Cap and Tony's gonna be awesome.

But i have a strong feeling that a small cheeky glimpse of Wonder Woman kicking ass will get a lot of buzz on Social Media, it's honestly amazing how much buzz she's getting everytime she appears in footage, especially the latest trailer lol.

Really believe that Wonder Woman's gonna be the key to winning that Social Media buzz during the Super Bowl.

It looks like from audience reactions to the second full length trailer at theaters during TFA that WW could well be the film's secret weapon marketing-wise. (At least there seem to be consistent reports of audible gasps, and oohs and at Wondy's reveal shot and the trinity assembled with her taking the lead.) If Gal knocks it out of the park with this performance, especially, then I have no doubt that we'll hear her speak for the final trailer, which I expect to be released for the Superbowl.

 

[JOE]

The MCU never misses an opportunity to go ham at the superbowl(historically). I expect them to pull out their 'trump card' during this one, perhaps spiderman. WB seemingly feels differently about the need for the bowl(especially given the cost), however their movies tend to open far enough away that they may have a point. They have used it in the past for spring snyder movies for though. And they do have a new ceo....
BvS marketing was built for the superbowl crowd imo.

In 2013/2014 an interesting technique was presented. A short spot(cause bowls spots are limited to a handful of seconds honestly), that of a short spot and a link to their bigger piece of marketing waiting online somewhere. Like RDJ staring at the screen or something. The result of this being a full on youtube trailer that has the eye/attention grabbing effect of 'superbowl'.
Truthfully I think wb shouldn't have had that trailer two. Ignoring the so called 'dulling' effect it had, I think that same trailer could have utilized this bowl technique wonderfully. What's more I fear for what wb can truly wow people with at this point without giving away that much more.
I don't know we'll see.

The big networks pass around the broadcasting rights for the bowl. Last year was universal(such a great year for these folks). The thing about WB is they don't have a major network like the rest of them(see CW/HBO). It will probably be fox this year.

I think BvS and Civil War both have one VERY BIG trump card left. Spider-Man is definitely Civl War's. What do you guys think of showing the Flash &/or Aquaman in a Superbowl spot? I know it'd be nice to see one or both for the first time on the big screen. I'm just trying to think what else they could show to wow us one last time before the movie comes out. They've already revealed the Trinity, they've revealed Doomsday... What's left?

 

[Jekecy]

I think BvS and Civil War both have one VERY BIG trump card left. Spider-Man is definitely Civl War's. What do you guys think of showing the Flash &/or Aquaman in a Superbowl spot? I know it'd be nice to see one or both for the first time on the big screen. I'm just trying to think what else they could show to wow us one last time before the movie comes out. They've already revealed the Trinity, they've revealed Doomsday... What's left?

That would officially cross into ASM2 levels of marketing overkill. The online backlash would be unreal.

 

[jokesonm3]

Honestly just like what Campea said on yesterdays Movie Talk.

Have the marketing of the film focus solely on the Batman vs Superman aspect of the film from now on until release.

I like that idea, anything else like doomsday, aquaman, flash etc, leave it for the fim.

 

[rogbngp]

Honestly just like what Campea said on yesterdays Movie Talk.

Have the marketing of the film focus solely on the Batman vs Superman aspect of the film from now on until release.

I like that idea, anything else like doomsday, aquaman, flash etc, leave it for the fim.

I think it could be very effective to have WW actually speak for us in a trailer or spot before the film is released--assuming that Gal is great in the film, of course. They don't have to feature her extensively to do that. Just a line that gives confidence that she's going to nail the part.

But, that said, it probably does make sense for most of the remaining spots and trailers to keep the focus on Batman and Superman's epic fight. Then WW and the trinity's battle against Doomsday will seem like the icing on the cake in the movie itself.

Well, and that said, I guess I'll add that if they do show just a glimpse of Doomsday fully evolved with his bony spikes (and hopefully horns as well), that might quiet some of the early complainers that Doomsday resembles a MNT or Abomination. In Death of Superman you see that to start the creature (although clothed and masked) actually resembles what we saw of Doomsday in the last trailer shape-wise in terms of his body and head, and just bony nodules that will become spikes.

 

[JOE]

That would officially cross into ASM2 levels of marketing overkill. The online backlash would be unreal.

Then they should stay away from a Superbowl Spot entirely if they're not going to show us anything worth going crazy over. It'd be a complete waste of money.

 

[Jekecy]

Then they should stay away from a Superbowl Spot entirely if they're not going to show us anything worth going crazy over. It'd be a complete waste of money.

They've barely shown any of the fight sequences. A whole bunch of reacting, but not the hits. There's plenty of trailer shots to go.

 

[JOE]

They've barely shown any of the fight sequences. A whole bunch of reacting, but not the hits. There's plenty of trailer shots to go.

Those aren't Super Bowl worthy, IMO.

Spoiler

Showing Bizarro punch Supes in the face would be though! t: