BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - Part 4

[NoLaNitE007]

I posted this in the All Things thread, and it feels like a relevant post to the current convo in this thread:



In a nutshell how I feel about MoS, which I am a fan of. People can say what they want, but the fact that we're STILL talking about it with such intensity 3 years later is a testament to it's impact on comic and fanboy culture.

This is true.

 

[Silliminite]

Yeah, I agree with Jaymes too.

 

[OneKickMan]

Man of Steel was receiving 3/5 ratings from some critics on their sites and still gave it a rotten score on Rotten Tomatoes. That's what's always frustrated me. Rotten Tomatoes really needs a better way for critics to vote up or down.

Right, also there are B- scores that received Rotten Tomatoes and the same critic has Red Tomatoes for C+ and C in other movies...

 

[Silliminite]

I think a critic's decision to give a movie either a fresh or a rotten tomato boils down more to their overall feeling of satisfaction and enjoyment of the film, than is based on their objective rating. That is why you can think a film is trashy and objectively give it a 5/10 but still give it a fresh tomato because they enjoyed it. That's what BvS needs to be: a film that's ultimately enjoyable and satisfying for a viewer.

 

[Tensor]

**** RT and **** these hippie-ass critics.

 

[morningmimosa]

**** RT and **** these hippie-ass critics.

Preach, my man!

 

[Juha Bach]

I pretty sure people in China uk Korea and all over the world are besides themselves with great anticipation waiting to see this movies RT score right? Just like they are with transformers franchise right? Hilarious. For this movie to make a billion it needs the overseas market. It just so happens that that market does not even know what RT is. Critic reviews barely influence the box office returns. Especially abroad. The way people here worship RT you would think Its at the same level As Facebook and Twitter.

 

[Tensor]

^ Truth. Barely any place in the east cares about stupid RT and even stupider pretentious "critics". What does matter is exposure. Hopefully, BvS has had good marketing overseas.

 

[metaphysician]

Did I miss something? Last time I frequented these forums (several months ago) everyone went absolutely livid with hate whenever El Maybe's name was mentioned. Have opinions of him on this forum changed in that time?

No, he's just making a claim that people want to believe, this time. Well, I shouldn't say "this time", because he's *always* made claims people wanted to believe. That's his MO.

Which is to say, no, nobody should take him seriously.

 

[DieSmiling]

You would also think that in non-english speaking countries a movie with great visual flair would play well -- Snyder may have his faults but he's obviously got an impressive visual style.

 

[metaphysician]

RT scores are misleading. Each critic submits a rating out of 5. Below 5 is rotten, above 5 is good.

So critics could universally give a movie 3 out of 5 and it'd be 100% RT score.

It's flawed.

Every system is flawed. The question is whether they are *useful*. RT doesn't distinguish between "perfect" and "adequately good", and that's one of its strengths. Metacritic, by contrast, gets bogged down into trying to compare one critic's 3 stars with another critics 75% with a third's 3/10, when none of those individual ratings are precise in the first place.

Here's the thing you need to understand: 100% on RT is not an incredibly good rating because everybody said its perfect. Its an incredibly good rating because it means *hundreds of critics all liked it*. This is sufficiently unlikely to happen by chance as to be indicative of extreme quality, because only a ridiculously good movie is going to get 300+ critics, of widely varying tastes and backgrounds, to agree on something.

 

[metaphysician]

I know they can..... but I feel it's stupid to rate something above average and give it a rotten score. Why not rate it average or below if they think it's rotten?

60% isn't "above average". 60% is "you failed, hope you like summer school".

 

[Gerontophobe]

I concur with the (minority) sentiment here that RT is actually a pretty good system in that it requires a simple binary response by critics (fresh or rotten, basically thumbs up or down). The TomatoMeter score doesn’t tell you what critics scored a movie, just how many of them liked it. (The average critic score is probably a better metric of perceived quality as it translates reviews into a common 100-point scale.) I get that many of you dislike RT because it seems to disagree with your sentiments but that just means you would be in the minority of critics or that you liked a divisive film. Personally, I am generally within 1 point of the average score (e.g. I would score MoS a 7, or 0.8 points from the 6.2 average score) and so find it a useful tool in making decisions on which movies to see. Of course there are exceptions (I hated the Master, 8.1 average and 85%, while enjoying At World’s End, 5.5 average and 45%) but overall I like it.

All told, I think RT is a reasonably good representation of quality as perceived by the frequent movie-going audience (which tends to be wealthier and white). For any individual film, it will likely fail to represent the opinions of a minority group (e.g. DC fans for MoS) but does capture the bigger picture. An interesting argument can be made that RT does not equally represent the tastes of the lower-income or non-white audience as critics are more homogenous that the general populace (and films that are quite popular among these groups, such as Transformers, are often rated very poorly). In the end, if you don’t like RT then don’t use it, but don’t be angry if other moviegoers find it a useful tool (in conjunction with trailers and WoM) in making decisions.

 

[Val_Zod]

60% isn't "above average". 60% is "you failed, hope you like summer school".

No its not. The grading system, and how it's valued is different across different institutions. That said, grading a film is a totally different regime and matter from the school grading system. Heck, 60% on RT is considered the minimum for fresh.

 

[Gerontophobe]

No its not. The grading system, and how it's valued is different across different institutions. That said, grading a film is a totally different regime and matter from the school grading system. Heck, 60% on RT is considered the minimum for fresh.

Yeah, I agree that grades (in which the percentage reflects how well you know the material) aren't really comparable to the RT score (which just shows how broad is the pool of critics who like the movie). If 60% of critics (a majority outside of the margin of error) like your movie, then I feel a "fresh" designation is fair (as liking a film is pretty subjective), but if you know only 60% of the material for a course, you probably haven't learned enough.

 

[Gerontophobe]

http://deadline.com/2016/03/hollywood-studios-too-many-big-budget-films-hurt-profits-1201714566/

This article further stresses why I think it was a good move by WB to release BvS in March. As the it notes, there are 30 pics this year that have $100M+ budgets compared to only 22 last year. The film calendar is getting more crowded with blockbusters so analysts think a lower percentage will financially succeed. Moving your tentpole to a major world holiday that happens to correspond with a lot of spring breaks in the US seems like a great move to avoid the clutter of the summer season. On a side note, in the first 13 weekends this summer (May 6 to Aug 5) there are 15 movies that I would give a credible chance of opening to $50M+ (although I'm skeptical of Warcraft, Tarzan, and Ghostbusters; BFG is also a question mark).

 

[ManWithNoName18]

boxoffice.com now posting 159 million opening weekend
http://pro.boxoffice.com/statistics/movies/man-of-steel-2-2015

 

[jokesonm3]

Funny how i like boxoffice.com's projection over deadlines.

I mean $120M - $140M? I know they're lowballing it but yeesh, a bit too low. :/

 

[teardrop]

boxoffice.com now posting 159 million opening weekend
http://pro.boxoffice.com/statistics/movies/man-of-steel-2-2015

as I said in the main thread...it's their prediction, but they somehow feel they have some solid numbers to "project" BO result.

anyway, they "projected" 85m OW for JW in long range forecast; then they raised the number to 130m before opening....they really think they're doing "projection"???

the point, though, is not that BvS definitely will open way higher than their projection as did JW, it's that what Boxoffice.com has been doing is simply boxoffice prediction, it can off a lot.

 

[jokesonm3]

Batman v Superman is now currently scheduled to premiere in about 60+ countries all on the same week, which is good, were getting close too Furious 7 level opening release dates.

And back in 2015 through Sunday, April 5, Furious 7 earned a 4-day opening weekend total of $250.4 million from 10,683 screens in 64 countries,

$250M international opening weekend, and granted this was a film that grossed $1,1 Billion in overseas gross alone.

Would be awesome if Batman v Superman grosses as much as Furious 7 internationally.

 

[teardrop]

Would be awesome if Batman v Superman grosses as much as Furious 7 internationally.

that would be, and BvS needs one to two breakout markets for that.

besides Avatar (and Titanic back in 1997) which had multiple breakout markets, most big OS grossers nowadays rely on particular markets.

Furious 7...China gave it 390m

TFA lagged behind, with 3 markets grossing over 100m (China 125m)

JW China again, 228m and UK provided 99m.

the shortcut...China

 

[jokesonm3]

that would be, and BvS needs one to two breakout markets for that.

besides Avatar (and Titanic back in 1997) which had multiple breakout markets, most big OS grossers nowadays rely on particular markets.

Furious 7...China gave it 390m

TFA lagged behind, with 3 markets grossing over 100m (China 125m)

JW China again, 228m and UK provided 99m.

the shortcut...China

Indeed, China's been the main reason we had an astonishing record of 5 films easily crossing the billion dollar mark by a landslide.

Hell even both Terminator Genysis and Warner Bros own San Andreas, two notoriously bad films of last year, both shockingly made more than $100 million dollars each in China which is incredibly impressive for a bad film lol.

China's definitely going to be the key in Batman v Superman grossing a lot internationally and worldwide.

China Yearly Box Office 2015

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/china/yearly/

 

[Gerontophobe]

So how much do we think BvS could do in China? TDKR did $53M back in 2012 but China’s box office growth has been explosive in the past few years. Last year alone, admissions grew by 51% (although a lot of that was local movies) and number of screens jumped 34%. The first Avengers movie did $86M (also in 2012) and then AoU did $240M in 2015. It probably isn’t fair to expect a similar jump (+179%) for BvS (to about $150M) since Marvel released several movies in between while DC only had MoS ($63M in 2013), but to me $150M seems very attainable for BvS.

 

[teardrop]

So how much do we think BvS could do in China? TDKR did $53M back in 2012 but China’s box office growth has been explosive in the past few years. Last year alone, admissions grew by 51% (although a lot of that was local movies) and number of screens jumped 34%. The first Avengers movie did $86M (also in 2012) and then AoU did $240M in 2015. It probably isn’t fair to expect a similar jump (+179%) for BvS (to about $150M) since Marvel released several movies in between while DC only had MoS ($63M in 2013), but to me $150M seems very attainable for BvS.

yeah, all cbm actually did quite well there recently, except for Thor 2. but it's very difficult to gauge BvS potential, as you mentioned, MoS didn't do well in 2013, and TDKR was pretty much before the full explosion of China market.

I can only hope the good superhero appetite can give BvS decent numbers there.

 

[jokesonm3]

I mean if Ant-man and Terminator Genysis could make $100M a pop and given the fact that it comes out the same day as the states thus reducing the chances of online film piracy.

I say that $200M is in the bag there.