BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - Part 8

[Ms. Marvel]

So those pushing that there will be a big drop, you really think Snyder will get moved? I don't think he's leaving regardless but he'll get more supervision just fot the RT scores alone.

That's all I want really.

 

[Doctor Octopus]

I wouldn't be so sure. People aren't looking deeply enough at these numbers. As I have been saying for days, the percentages, not the numbers are what matters. It is certainly an impressive opening weekend, but it was always going to be. But look at day 2...nearly a 40 % drop from day one. Day three...another 30 % drop. These are alarming numbers, indicative of less than favorable word of mouth reactions.

For context, The Avengers (which pulled in almost identical numbers on day one), only dropped 13 % on day two and then only 18 % on day three. Jurassic World, same boat. Almost identical day one, 15 % drop on day two, 17 % on day three.

The real telling number is day three. Similar films include TDKR which had a 40 % drop on day two, but only dropped 10 % on day three. Age of Ultron had a 33 % drop on day two, but again, only about 10 % on day three.

BvS is experiencing pretty high drop off. And this is the part where folks will come in and say its Easter...to which I say, precisely. Holidays are good for the theater..especially minor ones like Easter. That is why Warners moved the movie to Easter weekend.

If these are the type of drops we are looking at on the second day, the second weekend is going to be brutal. And has been said for days, THAT is when Snyder's fate will be determined.

Agree with all of this.

 

[Marvin]

My main takeaway from reading and contributing to this thread today is that we're going to have to wait a few days before anyone can clearly say that they're predictions are on the money.

We could be looking at a 70% drop and we're back in the disaster / Snyder unemployed camp, or it could have more legs than expected and be cruising towards a potential billion plus with not many issues.

This time next week will tell the tale...

saturday morning most likely.

Synder is a slippery one though, WB loves him.

 

[Matt]

So those pushing that there will be a big drop, you really think Snyder will get moved? I don't think he's leaving regardless but he'll get more supervision just fot the RT scores alone.

Yes. This is business. Warners does not give a **** about rotten tomatoes because that is not what makes them money. Warners does not give a **** about opening weekend, because movies do not generally make money back on opening weekend. Warners cares about one thing at this point; protecting future investments. It really is that cynical. If there is a massive drop, it indicates bad word of mouth. The high day to day drops are already indicating bad word of mouth. That is problematic because Warners needs positive hype going into JL, which will be their biggest investment of all time. Anyone who thinks that Warners will push forward in lieu of a bad second week drop (1) does not know how business works; and (2) does not know how Warners does business. They are not a risk adverse studio. They do not take chances. They especially do not gamble 500 million dollars. I am not saying it will happen. I am saying Warners execs will be watching the numbers very carefully and considering ALL options.

 

[Just_Bleed]

I guess Snyder keeps his job which saddens me. I hope you all enjoy what he brings.

I will, especially with his interpretation of Darksied.

 

[Reel-Man]

Has this been posted?

"There is no question this is an extraordinary achievement," said Warners domestic distribution chief Jeff Goldstein. "Clearly, audiences have embraced it and we are already seeing repeat business. It's just fun. Often, there's a disconnect between critics and audiences."

“When you swing for the bleachers and connect, it’s a tremendous feeling,” Jeff Goldstein, Warner Bros. distribution chief told TheWrap Sunday. “This felt like we were launching several films, so to come through like this makes all of us very proud.”

The beauty of this date around the world versus summer is that you don’t have titles before and afterward. When you kick off Easter, you’re all by yourself. We have all this head room moving forward,” beamed domestic distribution Warner Bros. chief Jeff Goldstein

http://www.henrycavillnews.com/2016/03/batman-v-superman-rules-world-justice.html?m=1

 

[Marvel Knight]

Where do he go?

http://forums.superherohype.com/showpost.php?p=33287289&postcount=196

For some reason my posts from this morning were deleted so I guess I'll just repost (Zod bless Google Docs).

It's easy to understand this "hater hater hater" stuff if everyone would shelve their like/dislike of the movie itself and look at what it represents. BvS represents the live action realization of many comics fans most favorite heroes. It's the first time they are ever seen together on the big screen in their history. It's the tent pole of all tent poles to usher in the most famous comic book superteam ever. It comes on the heels of a film that had a lukewarm reception. It comes after a three year wait, one year of which was inexplicable and very frustrating for even a casual fan. It comes with an insane amount of publicity. It comes with an Oscar winning screenwriter who was the Great White Hope of this franchise. It comes on months and months of reports of positive word of mouth, some going as far as to say studio execs gave it standing ovations in test screenings. It comes with equal parts anticipation and skepticism. It's without the doubt the most talked about movie this summer. No matter where you turn there is a promotion for this movie. Everyone knows about it. Grandmothers, priests, neighbors who don't really go to the movies. Over the past few months fans were given a downpour of visual engagement and promises that THIS was the movie they've been waiting forever for and THIS was the movie that would absolutely satisfy them. Amid the whispers and stories of problems surrounding it, hardly anyone gave up hope. Fans waved their BvS banners loud and proud and struck down anyone who tried to even manage their expectations. We're they wrong? Hell no. That is the movie they were sold. But it's not the movie they got. What a Beautiful Lie.

It doesn't matter if you liked this movie. It doesn't matter if you hated this movie. Truly, neither of those factor in. What matters is understanding that this entire experience was stillborn. Is this what you wanted this release to look like? DC fan civil war? Fans are divided almost equally and very brutally. Most haven't even seen this kind of vitriol in even Marvel vs DC debates. A movie that was supposed to unite a fan base ala Avengers has divided it quicker than anything else DC related has, quite possibly ever. Think about that. You may have liked the movie. That's for you to decide. But you cannot deny that the entire experience of this movie's production, release and fallout has been a frustrating, exhausting and unsatisfying one for all of us. We, who it was supposed to champion. It failed us. The filmmakers failed us. And the studio, who obviously knew this was on the horizon, failed us most of all. People aren't hating the movie, they're hating what the movie represents. A waste of a decade or more of hope and promise, leading to an unsure cinematic future. These characters deserved better and so did we.

And to the one or two Snarky McSnarksters who will undoubtedly pull the "relax bro it's just a superhero thing" to prove some nonsensical point. Of course it's just a superhero thing. But superheroes are important. If you don't believe that just Google "Batkid" and educate yourself.

And now, I'm off of here till the next big movie drops. It's been an eye opening three weeks, and an exhausting last three days being on here pretty much 24/7. Learned a lot. Took a ton of notes and screencaps I'll be putting to use next week. Seriously, both sides, thanks for the market research. You have no idea how helpful this has been. I'll leave you with two things to think about. Based on the past 5,000 posts as of 12:01 this morning:

42% of comments were on the negative side of this movie
48% were on the positive side
Less than 10% were completely off topic but still argumentative

39% of comments referenced Marvel and/or Fox and/or Sony in a negative way

33% of comments used the word "hater" or "troll"

38% of users are firmly in the "replace Zack Snyder" court

And here's a fun one: 8 new users with over 30 posts are accounts created on WB IPs in Burbank, CA. (And two of those created threads)

Also, Henry Cavill has been reading the board. Even last night. Be judgmental but kind.


Lastly, remember at the end of the day it really is only a movie. Even if it's a bad one. It could be worse. It could be a musical. #StayGold

 

[db85usa]

I anticipate this to drop on or around MoS 2nd weekend drop (64.6%) but like others have said Batman/Wonder Woman add a special element to the film. My son who is 10 wants to see it for a third time just to see Batman again.

 

[Marvel Knight]

Has this been posted?

Yup. I called it. The spin begins. Expect this to continue till the DVDs and Blu-Rays come out.

Snyder is staying.

 

[Zur-en-Arrh]

http://forums.superherohype.com/showpost.php?p=33287289&postcount=196

how did this guy have access to so much site information? like the ip's, cavil been reading, etc?

 

[Marvin]

Yep.. I actually think there are people touting the movie that are fooling themselves because they don't want to come to the realization that after MoS and BvS Snyder has done absolutely nothing to show he will do two JL movies justice, no pun intended. So they've fooled themselves and decided to eat that **** sandwich Snyder has served up twice and will continue to grin and bear it.

sure.
But here's a question if all these people do hate it what do you expect they do about it exactly? How to they(the ones here) fix it? Piss and moan on some fan site all day?

I know what I'd do if and when I have given up on something of this nature, but even implying it comes off as telling people what to do.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

sure.
But here's a question if all these people do hate it what do you expect they do about it exactly? How to they(the ones here) fix it? Piss and moan on some fan site all day?

I know what I'd do if and when I have given up on something of this nature, but even implying it comes off as telling people what to do.

You're right. Though I assume it's harder for people who are hardcore fans of Superman and don't like Snyder's interpretation to simply stop watching the films.

 

[Reel-Man]

Of course you guys closed the positivity thread. Way to make to encourage an iminent debate war. Like that wasn't already a problem. Well looks like I'm off here. Disagree completely wit this decision. Oh well.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

Of course you guys closed the positivity thread. Way to make to encourage an iminent debate war. Like that wasn't already a problem. Well looks like I'm off here. Disagree completely wit this decision. Oh well.

The scepticism thread was closed too. Come on!

 

[db85usa]

Of course you guys closed the positivity thread. Way to make to encourage an iminent debate war. Like that wasn't already a problem. Well looks like I'm off here. Disagree completely wit this decision. Oh well.

way to hijack the Box Office Thread.

 

[Matt]

Of course you guys closed the positivity thread. Way to make to encourage an iminent debate war. Like that wasn't already a problem. Well looks like I'm off here. Disagree completely wit this decision. Oh well.

Both the positivity and skepticism threads were closed. If you are not old enough to handle opinions that you disagree with, without being patted on the head and assured that you are right and the haters are just gonna hate, you probably aren't old enough to be using the internet unsupervised anyway.

 

[Val_Zod]

I can tell you one reason why this film did well on its first weekend: Batman. Batman puts people's butts in seats. That's just a fact of life now (and there's a good reason for it: Nolan made Batman incredibly popular again). If this had been a MoS sequel with Superman solo, I highly doubt it would garner this interest from the general audience.

I would like for Warner Bros. to take this away from this opening weekend: That this is more about people being interested in the DC Cinematic Universe more than it is about Zack Snyder and his "filmmaking."

People are definitely interested in a series of DC films. Instead of rewarding Zack Snyder, though, how about you reward the FANS, WB? Find a better person to work on Justice League. Reward the fans with a better film and a better director.

I'd argue Wonder Woman contributed a large part in this film's opening as well. Polls showed she was the main reason for people to check this out.

 

[JC00]

sure.
But here's a question if all these people do hate it what do you expect they do about it exactly? How to they(the ones here) fix it? Piss and moan on some fan site all day?

Well I definitely don't think they should continue to act like they like it and use OW numbers to justify accepting Snyder's DCEU which has already done an injustice to multiple characters.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

Edit: Never mind

 

[Reel-Man]

Both the positivity and skepticism threads were closed. If you are not old enough to handle opinions that you disagree with, without being patted on the head and assured that you are right and the haters are just gonna hate, you probably aren't old enough to be using the internet unsupervised anyway.

That's rich coming from a mod which is engaged in said debate. Clearly you can't respect opinions without having to resort to calling someone who's very likely older than you, a child. You don't need to respond. I'll just show myself out. But I have a feeling I'll see my post either vanish or a nice little surprise of being banned.

Edit: Forgot to say take care to those cool ones in here like DarthSkywalker and a few others. You guys are awesome to chat with here, regardless of our different opinions.

 

[8Diagrams(WU)]

Of course you guys closed the positivity thread. Way to make to encourage an iminent debate war. Like that wasn't already a problem. Well looks like I'm off here. Disagree completely wit this decision. Oh well.

Im out of here too. This place has reached maximum toxicity status.

 

[Aejej]

And now you've gotten a full on infraction. Up for a probation?

 

[Doctor Jones]

It just shows that Batman, and to a lesser extent Superman and Wonder Woman more then have the power to be up there.

It's too bad. The Trinity are called The Trinity for a reason. In a perfect world, they would be at the top like they always have been known as. You would think they would be the most successful.

 

[db85usa]

Another very good article on BvS box office performance and the never-ending question if Snyder should direct JL. Looks as though WB is counting on Suicide Squad to do well to justify the financial outcome of BvS.

http://www.inquisitr.com/2933232/ba...but-should-zack-snyder-direct-justice-league/

 

[Matt]

Okay, how about this as an alternative, I reopen it and if I see any bad mouthing of people who dislike the movie, any fan boy wars, if I see so much as even the word hater, I will just ban the poster going on with that nonsense. If it is reopened, it will be reopened as a thread to talk about what you like regarding the movie. Nothing more. You guys pick which you want.