BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - Part 8

[Limonade]

It varies from country to country, some estimates have put the Overseas (except China) at about 40% going to the studio, with China at 25% (which is a big improvement as it used to be about half that until a few years ago). Of course with the US the studios get a higher cut (which goes down each week to give the cinema owners more incentive to keep showing the film), off hand I think it might start as high as 80%. Thats the reason the US box office gets so much attention, its worth far more to the studios.

Ah. Thanks for the clarification.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

I think it will get to TDKR numbers when it comes to the end of its' run. TDKR snuck into the billion $ club. it beat TDKR opening weekend numbers, so that's a start.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=batman3.htm

It could. But this film should well exceed those numbers, not equal them.

 

[Tymminator]

The 2nd weekend drop will be key.

I think one thing that this movie did and Deadpool as well is show that you really can release a superhero movie on a month formally not considered a "desirable" month to drop such a movie on.

 

[Fallen Angel]

You are not counting Marketing into that, $250M is the production budget, the marketing in a film like this can reach $200M.

So $500m give or take. It's already made $420m in 4 days give or take.

 

[Jumpman]

If it needs to make twice its budget to break even, then it will need $500 million and it's at $420 after 4 days, lol.

People are blowing this way out of proportion.
The movie is a huge success. Get over it.

Pretty much.

 

[Rocketman]

You are not counting Marketing into that, $250M is the production budget, the marketing in a film like this can reach $200M.

And I already said I don't buy that. They didn't spend $250 million. Neither did MoS. Everyone wants to willfully forget IHop, UHaul, Sears, Aston Martin, Olay, Turkish Airlines, Jeep, Dr. Pepper, Kellogg's, Nikon, ESPN, etc.

The movie paid for its damn self.

 

[antoineflemming]

The movie cost over $400 mil to release. Hence the $800 mil break even estimate. The facts are out there. BSing them to prove a point does nothing

I know $250m was the budget. What was the other $150m again? I know there were some reports on it, but do you know what it was?

EDIT: NVM, it's right under my post...

 

[marieylee]

If it needs to make twice its budget to break even, then it will need $500 million and it's at $420 after 4 days, lol.

People are blowing this way out of proportion.
The movie is a huge success. Get over it.

250 production budget + 150 marketing = 400 million.

Studios usually get back about 60% of what it makes, but other places (like China) gets back even less. Thats why domestic totals are so important, they make more money. They will obviously make money back via DVD/Blu-Ray/Streaming, etc but it probably needs to make at least 750 million (which it will).

 

[JC00]

No. They opened in all 66 markets. Which is why the "BvS beat Avengers OW" headlines make no sense.

Makes zero sense. But I already brought that point up and was told by some of the BvS knights that Avengers opened over a span of 3 weeks and BvS was all at once so Avengers numbers are inflated because apparently opening it in Europe a week before N. America and then China a week after that even thought they are 3 different continents somehow inflates the number.

Avengers OW: $392m (without China's OW which is not listed on bomojo)
AoU OW: $392 with ($547m with China OW)

This movie opened up in basically every country at once and only was $30m better than Avengers and AoU and those don't have China's OW included.


It's a nice positive spin headline in the midst of bad reviews But anyone that has a decent knowledge of box office numbers knows this it isn't really the biggest OW for a superhero. AoU is by a far margin.

 

[Fallen Angel]

It could. But this film should well exceed those numbers, not equal them.

Agreed but it is what it is.

 

[Orba]

So $500m give or take. It's already made $420m in 4 days give or take.

Yes but only about $210m of that will go to the studio.

 

[Reel-Man]

The movie cost over $400 mil to release. Hence the $800 mil break even estimate. The facts are out there. BSing them to prove a point does nothing

Isn't the budget/breakaway point speculation by various sources? I have never seen personally the official budget plus marketing being released by a studio.

 

[Poni_Boy]

So $500m give or take. It's already made $420m in 4 days give or take.

Stop being obtuse. If a movie cost $400 mil to release it needs to make twice that at the BO to break even. The studio doesn't get to put every box office dollar in their pocket. The theaters profits almost equally (and more than half overseas)

 

[Limonade]

$800 million is the breakeven number being reported by most trades.

I'm also accounting for product placements to cut the cost of marketing... although I'm playing it safe, in this case.

 

[antoineflemming]

Makes zero sense. But I already brought that point up and was told by some of the BvS knights that Avengers opened over a span of 3 weeks and BvS was all at once so Avengers numbers are inflated because apparently opening it in Europe a week before N. America and then China a week after that even thought they are 3 different continents somehow inflates the number.

Avengers OW: $392m (without China's OW which is not listed on bomojo)
AoU OW: $392 with ($547m with China OW)

This movie opened up in basically every country at once and only was $30m better than Avengers and AoU and those don't have China's OW included.


It's a nice positive spin headline in the midst of bad reviews But anyone that has a decent knowledge of box office numbers knows this it isn't really the biggest OW for a superhero. AoU is by a far margin.

Yeah. I liked the movie, and I'm aware of that. But I don't think this movie ever should've been expected to be as big as Avengers or AOU. The Trinity is popular but they aren't THAT popular, imo.

 

[Iceman]

WB knew this. The question now is why estimate up in this particular case? If they would have said "167" million it would have still hit their public expectations.

All the studios are entitled to use normal drops and internal weekend multipliers to predict the rest of the weekend; that is the most unbiased thing to do. In the case of a film with a poorer than expected Sunday night gross it will always be overestimated. Many recent big films have had better than expected Sunday night grosses and have been underestimated as a result meaning the initial headline is less favourable, which would never happen if studios were always looking to skew the headline.

I don't think it's a big deal here anyway, maybe if it was the difference between crossing $200m or not, or getting an overall record, and especially so soon after TFA came in with nearly $250m!

 

[SomeOldGuy]

And I already said I don't buy that. They didn't spend $250 million. Neither did MoS. Everyone wants to willfully forget IHop, UHaul, Sears, Aston Martin, Olay, Turkish Airlines, Jeep, Dr. Pepper, Kellogg's, Nikon, ESPN, etc.

The movie paid for its damn self.

Well, the marketing probably paid for itself, or a lot of itself. Not the movie, though. Given the numbers reported so far WB has likely pocketed about $170-180 million though so they are well on their way to at least breaking even.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Isn't the budget/breakaway point speculation by various sources? I have never seen personally the official budget plus marketing being released by a studio.

Yes it's an estimate. That's why WB got pissed when someone leaked the HP7 balance sheet.

 

[samsnee]

Probably marketing. But as others have said, with sponsorships, who knows what the real budget it. And who knows how much a cut WB gets from international. I do think that $800M is probably a safe bet for profitability but the only people who will really know is the studio. And they are notorious for they're fuzzy math in order to not have to pay actors or talent additional money if a movie does well.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Maybe. But it'll follow the same trend as MoS. If the drop of GA for this movie is beyond 50% this film will limp towards that $1b mark at the end of this run.

Not enough to save WB from there mistakes of last year.

And that royally pisses I off. Time Warner is the only company I own stock in that lost me money last year. They do it again this year and I quit

 

[SyntaxError]

WB is definitely not angry, that's for sure. At most, they're slightly disappointed, if at all. The movie will be a huge success when it's all said and done. I don't buy all those fudgy marketing budget numbers and billion dollar projection requirements. If the movie cost $250 million to make, it cost $250 million to make, and it's made $420 million in its first weekend.

Believe me, WB will be very very disappointed about this. BvS, along with Fantastic Beasts, was supposed to make this year for the studio. They have just come out of an abysmal 2015 (think Pan, U.N.C.L.E, Jupiter Ascending), and this year was supposed to bring them back to the top. BvS has failed on all accounts.

250M production + 150+ marketing/promotion means total cost (not including ancillary platforms) is ~400M. That requires at least 800M to break even, since Theatres split Box office revenues with studios. In fact, big markets like China take 60% of BO revenues so the studio may need to take in 1B to consider it profitable (also factoring in unreported costs of production; some speculate total cost was more like 500M).

The movie had a 165M+ OW. Thats good. But it doesn't break records, and the outlook is grim. The drop from Friday-Monday is horrifying. Its a record. Worse than Fantastic Four. It means the movie has no legs. It will struggle to crack 400M total run Domestic.

In China, a crucial market, it debuted way under forecasts, had a bad Friday-Sunday drop, and may struggle to meet the same total run numbers as Ant-Man.

The prospects of the movie getting to 800M, let alone 1B, aren't guaranteed. In fact, they are pretty depressing.

Remember, Warner didn't just want this to break-even. They wanted this to be a massive win. It ended up a dud.

 

[Orba]

Isn't the budget/breakaway point speculation by various sources? I have never seen personally the official budget plus marketing being released by a studio.

Its always estimates as studios never show there books, mainly due to the fact that studio accounting can be highly creative. For example Box office smashes can make no profit if the accountants want as it means that if there are no profits then they don't have to give people a cut. Also films budgets can include money spent on previous failed productions, Superman Returns' budget included the budget of 'Superman Lives'.

 

[Reel-Man]

Yes it's an estimate. That's why WB got pissed when someone leaked the HP7 balance sheet.

Obviously the name box office is attached to ticket sales but how does the toys and merchandise figure in the balance?

 

[Zarex]

And I already said I don't buy that. They didn't spend $250 million. Neither did MoS. Everyone wants to willfully forget IHop, UHaul, Sears, Aston Martin, Olay, Turkish Airlines, Jeep, Dr. Pepper, Kellogg's, Nikon, ESPN, etc.

The movie paid for its damn self.

So your thinking is that Turkish Airlines, Jeep and other BvS partners, in addition to spending big bucks on co-branded advertisement (including a very pricey SB spot), also kicked in cash to cover Warner Brothers production costs? Did ESPN, like Marvel a Disney subsidiary, pay for the catering costs?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Probably marketing. But as others have said, with sponsorships, who knows what the real budget it. And who knows how much a cut WB gets from international. I do think that $800M is probably a safe bet for profitability but the only people who will really know is the studio. And they are notorious for they're fuzzy math in order to not have to pay actors or talent additional money if a movie does well.

The other thing about marketing is that all the big studios are part of media conglomerates so a lot of the advertising and promotion amounts to taking money from one pocket and putting it in the other. It's generally best just to ignore marketing costs.