June 18, 2008
4TH OF JULY TRACKING: 'Hancock' Seems Destined for $140M-$150M Over Five-Day 4th of July Frame, Marking Eight Dtraight $100M Movies for Will Smith!
by Steve Mason
By Monday, July 7, Will Smith will be the undisputed No. 1 movie star in the world. My sources tell me that tracking for Hancock (Sony) is in the stratosphere, and its five-day gross will be, conservatively, in the $140 million-$150 million range, with a bigger number highly possible. That would give the former Fresh Prince his eighth consecutive $100 million movie (his last dry spell was the back-to-back misfires of hybrid blockbuster/prestige releases Ali and The Legend of Bagger Vance), topping the all-time best streaks of two fellow screen legends.
Although I do not know anyone who has seen the movie at this point, the concept, in my estimation, is perfectly attuned to our current culture. Hancock, played by Smith, is a superhero who needs rehab, a down-on-his-luck loser with superpowers. Jason Bateman plays the publicist who volunteers to rehabilitate his image out of gratitude for Hancock's heroism. This new Will Smith role is, essentially, a superhero for the TMZ/Perez Hilton generation.
Hancock will, without question, be the twelfth $100 million movie of Smith's career (a tally that includes the animated Shark Tale). That will move him back into a fourth-place tie with Harrison Ford, whose Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Paramount) is still playing strongly in theatres and approaching the $300 million domestic mark.
MOST $100 MILLION MOVIES IN A CAREER (List includes animated films and excludes cameos)
1. Tom Hanks 15
2. Tom Cruise 14
3. Eddie Murphy 13
4. Will Smith 12 (including Hancock)
4. Harrison Ford 12
6. Jim Carrey 11
6. Robin Williams 11
8. Mel Gibson 10
9. Matt Damon 9
10. Bruce Willis 8
10. Jack Nicholson 8
Will Smith, however, is about to do something unprecedented, a feat never accomplished even by either of the Toms, Hanks and Cruise. Hancock will be his eighth consecutive blockbuster to gross $100 million or more.
Men in Black II (2002) $52.14 million opening, $190.41 million cume
Bad Boys II (2003) $46.52 million opening, $138.6 million cume
I, Robot (2004) $52.17 million opening, $144.8 million cume
Shark Tale (2004) $47.6 million opening, $160.86 million cume
Hitch (2005) $43.12 million opening, $179.49 million cume
The Pursuit of Happyness (2006) $26.54 million opening, $163.56 million cume
I Am Legend (2007) $77.21 million opening, $256.39 million cume
Hancock (2008) $150 million opening (Estimated)
The best streak that Tom Hanks put together was seven, beginning with Saving Private Ryan in 1998:
Saving Private Ryan (1998) $30.57 million opening,$216.54 million cume
Youve Got Mail (1998) $18.42 million opening,$115.82 million cume
Toy Story 2 (1999) $300,000 opening, $245.85 million cume
The Green Mile (1999) $18 million opening,$136.8 million cume
Cast Away (2000) $28.88 million opening,$233.63 million cume
Road To Perdition (2002) $22.07 million opening,$104.45 million cume
Catch Me If You Can (2002) $30 million opening,$164.61 million cume
And, surprisingly, were it not for the disastrous Lions For Lambs, Cruise would still be on a long winning streak. Instead, his MGM/UA debut ended his string of $100 million hits at seven as well:
Mission Impossible II (2000) $57.84 million opening, $215.4 million cume
Vanilla Sky (2001) $25 million opening, $100.61 million cume
Minority Report (2002) $35.67 million opening, $132.07 million cume
The Last Samurai (2003) $24.27 million opening, $111.12 million cume
Collateral (2004) $24.7 million opening, $101 million cume
War of the Worlds (2005) $64.87 million opening, $234.28 million cume
Mission Impossible III (2006) $47.74 million opening, $134 million cume
Currently, Will Smith is the closest thing that Hollywood has to a sure thing, and, notably, he is not making the same movie over and over again. The streak includes sequels, original sci-fi, animation, romantic comedy and Oscar-nominated drama. His next film, Seven Pounds (Sony), is set for December and reteams him with his Pursuit of Happyness director Gabriele Muccino. It is an eclectic drama, but it will not be surprising at all if he extends his $100 million winning streak to nine. Everything he touches turns to gold.