The Dark Knight Batman's Competition in 2008

[HolyPurpleSocks]

I agree I think at the end of the year it will be number 3 or 4 when it comes to money but probably the best when it comes to quality.

Quoted for truth...Just because a movie grosses ridiculous numbers, doesn't automatically make it the most well-made film of that year, or that it actually had substance to it: Just means it had a widespread appeal and happened to have an impact at a time when alot of people want to go out and pump their money into seeing it.

 

[Kirk Langstrom]

Failure for me is anything short of 300 Mil, I think TDK needs to out sale Iron Man.

Why does it "need" to out sell Iron Man?

(and good luck with that, btw. )

 

[GlasgowBat]

it doesn't. he just thought it would beforehand, and has therefore found himself in a bit of a pickle.

i would love the film to come out on top in the box-office, but i won't be holding my breath. if the film does enough to green-light a sequel, it has done enough.

 

[FlawlessVictory]

it doesn't. he just thought it would beforehand, and has therefore found himself in a bit of a pickle.

He made that comment just a few days ago.

i would love the film to come out on top in the box-office, but i won't be holding my breath. if the film does enough to green-light a sequel, it has done enough.

That's the only thing I care about.

 

[HolyPurpleSocks]

Knowing the fanatical nature of all the people who love Batman, and the fact that seeing how much many here spend on costumes, collectibles, apparel and such- we are much like the fans of other die-hard franchises. We are dedicated and true to the stories we follow. I, for one, know I will be seeing this movie at least 7 or 8 times in theatres. Probably taking my girlfriend, assembling large groupings of my friends almost each and every time that I go to see it. Many others here are doing the same, and I know that even though pirated versions of the movie will probably be available and could cripple its maximum potential- DARK lighted movies like these don't translate well to that medium.

Thus, the people who really wanna see it will GO AND SEE IT. And those who love it will go see it again, and again, and again. Especially due to the added effects of older generations(Freeman, Michael Caine, Eric Roberts) getting who they respect, young kids being attracted to it(It's freaking Batman), girls getting their beefcakes(Christian Bale- and Heath's a heartthrob), lots of respected vets and 'underground' faves(Gyllenhaal, Eckhart, Oldman), plus the defining performance of Heath to top it all off...I really can't see this film pulling in any less than 275- DOMESTICALLY alone.

 

[StorminNorman]

Why does it "need" to out sell Iron Man?

(and good luck with that, btw. )

it doesn't. he just thought it would beforehand, and has therefore found himself in a bit of a pickle.

i would love the film to come out on top in the box-office, but i won't be holding my breath. if the film does enough to green-light a sequel, it has done enough.

If you guys think a film with the amount of hype, the amount of marketing, the amount of everything The Dark Knight has is only a success if it makes enough to green light a sequel - you guys don't understand reality.

This movie has everything in place to be the biggest film of the summer - WB is EXPECTING this movie to be if not the biggest movie, the second biggest and certainly the biggest Superhero movie of the summer. If a BATMAN movie can't out gross Iron Man - a character with zero mainstream credibility - then there is something seriously wrong here and WB will look at that.

I have long said I think TDK will gross over 300 Mil, I think that is still very much the case - I will be shocked if it doesn't and it will be failure if doesn't.

This is not simply a movie that is suppose to do very well this summer, this and Indiana Jones are suppose to be the movies that MAKE this summer. If TDK is not at least the second highest grossing film, if it is not the highest grossing film in its genre - then it has not lived up to the hype and the marketing. Period.

 

[Negative Creep]

I agree. TDK has everything in place to be THE movie of the summer box office wise. I also expect it to do over 300 million.

 

[The Shape]

If you guys think a film with the amount of hype, the amount of marketing, the amount of everything The Dark Knight has is only a success if it makes enough to green light a sequel - you guys don't understand reality.

This movie has everything in place to be the biggest film of the summer - WB is EXPECTING this movie to be if not the biggest movie, the second biggest and certainly the biggest Superhero movie of the summer. If a BATMAN movie can't out gross Iron Man - a character with zero mainstream credibility - then there is something seriously wrong here and WB will look at that.

I have long said I think TDK will gross over 300 Mil, I think that is still very much the case - I will be shocked if it doesn't and it will be failure if doesn't.

This is not simply a movie that is suppose to do very well this summer, this and Indiana Jones are suppose to be the movies that MAKE this summer. If TDK is not at least the second highest grossing film, if it is not the highest grossing film in its genre - then it has not lived up to the hype and the marketing. Period.

While I agree with mostly everything you've said, that one part stands out. If TDK does not cros the $300 million mark, it is by no means a failure in any sense of the word. In fact, even if it only grosses $260 million domestically, it will have greatly surpassed BB's domestic take and will be pretty darn good for a film with such a dark and adult nature.

With that said, I'm still confident it will make over 300 million by a small margain.

 

[Stupify_me]

If you guys think a film with the amount of hype, the amount of marketing, the amount of everything The Dark Knight has is only a success if it makes enough to green light a sequel - you guys don't understand reality.

This movie has everything in place to be the biggest film of the summer - WB is EXPECTING this movie to be if not the biggest movie, the second biggest and certainly the biggest Superhero movie of the summer. If a BATMAN movie can't out gross Iron Man - a character with zero mainstream credibility - then there is something seriously wrong here and WB will look at that.

I have long said I think TDK will gross over 300 Mil, I think that is still very much the case - I will be shocked if it doesn't and it will be failure if doesn't.

This is not simply a movie that is suppose to do very well this summer, this and Indiana Jones are suppose to be the movies that MAKE this summer. If TDK is not at least the second highest grossing film, if it is not the highest grossing film in its genre - then it has not lived up to the hype and the marketing. Period.

It took me five minutes to stop laughing so I could comment. Do you know anything about the box office what so ever?

Does TDK have a shot at being number two of the summer ? Yes. Is it very likely? No.

While it may have a chance of out grossing Iron Man it probably will not happen. TDK will be considered a success if it make more money than Begins counting inflation. Iron- Man had plenty of mainstream appeal It featured Robot Tech and after Transformers that became very popular. Iron Man had an excellent marketing campaign it was all over the place. In it's Trailers Iron Man highlighted big time action and doses of comedy which strongly appeals to audiences. It also was lucky enough to be the first big movie of the summer with zero competition.

The second big movie was widely considered terrible and flopped which kept Ironman way up top. The third movie of the summer was not all that well received and may not even make it's budget or will just barely make it. Which kept Iron-Man on top.

TDK will be opening in late July after all the huge summer movies come out and will also be followed by two more decently sized summer flicks. Don't get me wrong I think TDK will do great, but beating Iron-Man and reaching 300M isn't very likely plausible, but not probable.

 

[Negative Creep]

It took me five minutes to stop laughing so I could comment. Do you know anything about the box office what so ever?

Does TDK have a shot at being number two of the summer ? Yes. Is it very likely? No.

While it may have a chance of out grossing Iron Man it probably will not happen. TDK will be considered a success if it make more money than Begins counting inflation. Iron- Man had plenty of mainstream appeal It featured Robot Tech and after Transformers that became very popular. Iron Man had an excellent marketing campaign it was all over the place. In it's Trailers Iron Man highlighted big time action and doses of comedy which strongly appeals to audiences. It also was lucky enough to be the first big movie of the summer with zero competition.

The second big movie was widely considered terrible and flopped which kept Ironman way up top. The third movie of the summer was not all that well received and may not even make it's budget or will just barely make it. Which kept Iron-Man on top.

TDK will be opening in late July after all the huge summer movies come out and will also be followed by two more decently sized summer flicks. Don't get me wrong I think TDK will do great, but beating Iron-Man and reaching 300M isn't very likely plausible, but not probable.

You're acting like he's predicting the rapture will happen on monday. Is it really that crazy to suggest TDK might make more than Iron Man? Do you have any guarantees? No. So get off your high horse.

 

[Stupify_me]

You're acting like he's predicting the rapture will happen on monday. Is it really that crazy to suggest TDK might make more than Iron Man? Do you have any guarantees? No. So get off your high horse.

I'm not laughing that he said it might I'm laughing that he said if it doesn't it will be a failure. Hell I said it has a chance at doing it. I just think to consider it a failure if it doesn't is hilarious and sad.

 

[Negative Creep]

I'm not laughing that he said it might I'm laughing that he said if it doesn't it will be a failure. Hell I said it has a chance at doing it. I just think to consider it a failure if it doesn't is hilarious and sad.

Ok, that I agree with.

 

[StorminNorman]

While I agree with mostly everything you've said, that one part stands out. If TDK does not cros the $300 million mark, it is by no means a failure in any sense of the word. In fact, even if it only grosses $260 million domestically, it will have greatly surpassed BB's domestic take and will be pretty darn good for a film with such a dark and adult nature.

With that said, I'm still confident it will make over 300 million by a small margain.

It will be by WB's estimations. I have no doubt WB is expecting this movie to make at least 300 Mil, and it should - because this film SHOULD be in that sort of range.

A 260 Million Domestic earning will be only 40 Mil more than Batman Begins made (when figuring for inflation) - that small a bump would be really hard to consider a success.

Batman Begins was not treated like a real summer block buster, it was not an event movie - this is, thats why you can't simply look at any total that surpasses Begins numbers to be a success. The potential is far greater, so the expectations should be far greater and if the reality is NOT far greater, then it is a failure.

 

[Negative Creep]

I wouldn't call it a failure. If it makes 250 million it is financially successful and per definiton can't be called a failure. You can say it didn't meet expectations (maybe your own - I don't know what the biz is predicting) but it's not a failure.

 

[StorminNorman]

It took me five minutes to stop laughing so I could comment. Do you know anything about the box office what so ever?

Does TDK have a shot at being number two of the summer ? Yes. Is it very likely? No.

While it may have a chance of out grossing Iron Man it probably will not happen. TDK will be considered a success if it make more money than Begins counting inflation. Iron- Man had plenty of mainstream appeal It featured Robot Tech and after Transformers that became very popular. Iron Man had an excellent marketing campaign it was all over the place. In it's Trailers Iron Man highlighted big time action and doses of comedy which strongly appeals to audiences. It also was lucky enough to be the first big movie of the summer with zero competition.

If you REALLY think that, then you are delusional. If Begins makes 250-260 Mil, it was not a successful film. The hype for this movie is exponentially larger than Batman Begins, it needs to exponentially more successful too.

The Dark Knight has plenty of mainstream appeal as well, it features two of the most popular American characters battling out in a (supposedly) fantastic film. Iron Man has no advantage over The Dark Knight in that respect.

The trailers for The Dark Knight have been every bit as well received - if not more - than Iron Man and Indiana Jones.

The second big movie was widely considered terrible and flopped which kept Ironman way up top. The third movie of the summer was not all that well received and may not even make it's budget or will just barely make it. Which kept Iron-Man on top.

TDK will be opening in late July after all the huge summer movies come out and will also be followed by two more decently sized summer flicks. Don't get me wrong I think TDK will do great, but beating Iron-Man and reaching 300M isn't very likely plausible, but not probable.

What two more decently sized summer flicks? TDK has no competition in the following weeks.

If you think 300 Mil for TDK is not likely or plausible, I must ask you the same question you asked me: Do you know anything about the Box Office?

 

[StorminNorman]

I wouldn't call it a failure. If it makes 250 million it is financially successful and per definiton can't be called a failure. You can say it didn't meet expectations (maybe your own - I don't know what the biz is predicting) but it's not a failure.

Do you consider Superman Returns a failure?

 

[Negative Creep]

I don't know. Did it make a profit?

 

[Stupify_me]

If you REALLY think that, then you are delusional. If Begins makes 250-260 Mil, it was not a successful film. The hype for this movie is exponentially larger than Batman Begins, it needs to exponentially more successful too.

The Dark Knight has plenty of mainstream appeal as well, it features two of the most popular American characters battling out in a (supposedly) fantastic film. Iron Man has no advantage over The Dark Knight in that respect.

The trailers for The Dark Knight have been every bit as well received - if not more - than Iron Man and Indiana Jones.




What two more decently sized summer flicks? TDK has no competition in the following weeks.

If you think 300 Mil for TDK is not likely or plausible, I must ask you the same question you asked me: Do you know anything about the Box Office?

So apparently you did not read my post at all. Are you blind ? I said it was plausible. It's not likely most analysts will tell you that. Yes there is a chance it can happen and I will be so very happy if it does, but the only people who actually think that it will are over eager fan boys.

Yes two more decently sized summer movies X-files 2 and the new Mummy movie. The previous films for both made a decent amount. They won't make as much as Ironman, Indy or TDK, but they will most likely be in the top grossing movies of the year. Mummy has a good chances of getting over 200M and it is released shortly after TDK. X-files will probably be mid to high 100's which won't cripple TDK, but it will take away from it's box office.


Yes Superman Returns was a failure it had a budget of 270M and only made 200M. It was a failure indeed.

 

[StorminNorman]

So apparently you did not read my post at all. Are you blind ? I said it was plausible. It's not likely most analysts will tell you that. Yes there is a chance it can happen and I will be so very happy if it does, but the only people who actually think that it will are over eager fan boys.

You said " isn't very likely plausible", and I think that is a silly position to take. Most "analysts" also thought Narnia was going to be a huge success and had no idea Iron Man was going to make Iron Man numbers, so their opinion isn't very...well...relevant?

I am also NOT an over eager fan boy - if it was simply my own personal thoughts about this movie fueling my box office predictions, I would state so and probably not be as active in this thread as I am. I come to my predictions based on listening to people leaving theaters, listening to my friends (who are varied in interests, cliques, etc.) and reading various message boards on various topics appealing to various demographics. I tend to have as good, if not better, record on reading the Box Office than any typical Box Office analyst - though I have been wrong, as anyone here has.

Yes two more decently sized summer movies X-files 2 and the new Mummy movie. The previous films for both made a decent amount. They won't make as much as Ironman, Indy or TDK, but they will most likely be in the top grossing movies of the year. Mummy has a good chances of getting over 200M and it is released shortly after TDK. X-files will probably be mid to high 100's which won't cripple TDK, but it will take away from it's box office.

X Files 2? A movie that no one knows about that had almost no demand? Yes - thats a big summer sizzler. The original made 121 Mil (accounting for inflation) and the sequel won't make that much, its not going to be a blip on the radar. The Dark Knight will still be the number one movie when X Files comes out. It has no chance at making mid-100 Mil.

The Mummy is interesting - I am personally looking forward to it, I just don't know if (again) people really were interested in a sequel.

I don't think Mummy will make 200 Mil, high 100's Mil though. Mummy is less competition for TDK than Narnia was for Iron Man.

Yes Superman Returns was a failure it had a budget of 270M and only made 200M. It was a failure indeed.

Actually it made 390+ Mil.

 

[Stupify_me]

You said " isn't very likely plausible", and I think that is a silly position to take. Most "analysts" also thought Narnia was going to be a huge success and had no idea Iron Man was going to make Iron Man numbers, so their opinion isn't very...well...relevant?

I am also NOT an over eager fan boy - if it was simply my own personal thoughts about this movie fueling my box office predictions, I would state so and probably not be as active in this thread as I am. I come to my predictions based on listening to people leaving theaters, listening to my friends (who are varied in interests, cliques, etc.) and reading various message boards on various topics appealing to various demographics. I tend to have as good, if not better, record on reading the Box Office than any typical Box Office analyst - though I have been wrong, as anyone here has.



X Files 2? A movie that no one knows about that had almost no demand? Yes - thats a big summer sizzler. The original made 121 Mil (accounting for inflation) and the sequel won't make that much, its not going to be a blip on the radar. The Dark Knight will still be the number one movie when X Files comes out. It has no chance at making mid-100 Mil.

The Mummy is interesting - I am personally looking forward to it, I just don't know if (again) people really were interested in a sequel.

I don't think Mummy will make 200 Mil, high 100's Mil though. Mummy is less competition for TDK than Narnia was for Iron Man.



Actually it made 390+ Mil.

Were talking Domestic numbers. You can't discuss TDK's domestic numbers, but then switch to worldwide for SR. Also Movies are generally considered failures if they don't make Budget with their Domestic numbers Most people will agree with that especially if they miss it by 70M .

Adjusted Mummy Returns was in the mid to high 200M's which leads this next one to having a great shot at 200M again. Also I didn't say that X-files would take TDK out of number one I said it would lower their ticket sales.

I guess this is pointless obviously reasoning with you is out of the question since you refuse to use logic. Making 300Mill is possible, but not likely it's that simple. However you thinking it will make 300M doesn't really bother me what annoys me is saying that if it doesn't it's a failure. That's simply pathetic and makes no sense. No one in the world with even a fraction of intelligence would agree with that not even WB execs trust me they will be plenty happy with 260M

 

[StorminNorman]

Were talking Domestic numbers. You can't discuss TDK's domestic numbers, but then switch to worldwide for SR. Also Movies are generally considered failures if they don't make Budget with their Domestic numbers Most people will agree with that especially if they miss it by 70M .

You are making the argument that a film is a failure if it doesn't make money - Superman Returns, technically, made money. I think that such a definition is ridiculous.

Simply making a profit doesn't mean you have succeeded, if you fail to live up to expectations - then you should consider something a failure.

TDK not being a top 2 movie would be TDK not meeting up to WB's expectations.

Adjusted Mummy Returns was in the mid to high 200M's which leads this next one to having a great shot at 200M again. Also I didn't say that X-files would take TDK out of number one I said it would lower their ticket sales.

The Scorpion King, however, was a failure.

TDK won't lose a single ticket to X-Files. No one is going to go to the movies and then think "you know what, I wanted to see that Batman movie...but X Files does look good!"

You can't talk about Iron Man having a fantastically weak competition in the box office, and then talk about X Files being relevant to The Dark Knight.

I guess this is pointless obviously reasoning with you is out of the question since you refuse to use logic.

You have yet to even apply logic. For you, logic has been "well its hard for a movie to make 300 Mil, so The Dark Knight probably won't". Yes, I do refuse THAT sort of philosophy, because its ridiculous.

Making 300Mill is possible, but not likely it's that simple. However you thinking it will make 300M doesn't really bother me what annoys me is saying that if it doesn't it's a failure. That's simply pathetic and makes no sense. No one in the world with even a fraction of intelligence would agree with that not even WB execs trust me they will be plenty happy with 260M

WB will not be happy with 260 Mil. They have no marketed this film to be a successful film - they have marketed this film, hyped this film to be THE film of the Summer. You can't deny that. If this film is NOT the film of the Summer than it has failed to live up to the Hype and thus is a failure.

 

[Stupify_me]

You are making the argument that a film is a failure if it doesn't make money - Superman Returns, technically, made money. I think that such a definition is ridiculous.

Simply making a profit doesn't mean you have succeeded, if you fail to live up to expectations - then you should consider something a failure.

TDK not being a top 2 movie would be TDK not meeting up to WB's expectations.



The Scorpion King, however, was a failure.

TDK won't lose a single ticket to X-Files. No one is going to go to the movies and then think "you know what, I wanted to see that Batman movie...but X Files does look good!"

You can't talk about Iron Man having a fantastically weak competition in the box office, and then talk about X Files being relevant to The Dark Knight.



You have yet to even apply logic. For you, logic has been "well its hard for a movie to make 300 Mil, so The Dark Knight probably won't". Yes, I do refuse THAT sort of philosophy, because its ridiculous.



WB will not be happy with 260 Mil. They have no marketed this film to be a successful film - they have marketed this film, hyped this film to be THE film of the Summer. You can't deny that. If this film is NOT the film of the Summer than it has failed to live up to the Hype and thus is a failure.

First of all you are expecting the movie to live up to your expectation which you then assume that everyone else has the same expectations. If a movie doesn't live up to expectations then it didn't live up to expectations, but can still be a success.


The Scorpion King was only loosely tied in to the Mummy series it was simply a spin off.

There are people out there who are fanatics toward the X-files absolutely obsessed with the show who also think Batman is a cool character. I know people who don't plan to watch Batman opening day, but are gonnna watch X-files on opening day.

I've applied plenty of logic you seem to ignore it. My logic has been that Batman is coming out in a spot that historically isn't the best position. My logic is that When TDK comes out people will not only be tired of Blockbusters , but a little worn out on Comic movies. My logic is that TDK doesn't appeal to as broad of an audience as Iron-man given it's tone. My logic is that TDK comes soon After Hancock not long before Mummy. My logic is that while in the past some movies have done better than the first it is very rare for a movie to leap up 100M more than the first. Even despite all that and many other things it's still possible to hit 300m however if it doesn't it will not be a failure and your probably the only person in the world who would think that. I can tell you right now the WB execs would never be DUMB enough to think that. They are far more educated in this matter than you and know better. As am I.

 

[explode7]

This isn't right now is it?

http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2008-05-30&p=.htm

 

[Stupify_me]

This isn't right now is it?

http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2008-05-30&p=.htm

Well it's just an estimate, but the actuals usually aren't that far apart from the estimates. I'm not really all that shocked. I expected SATC to have a huge opening it's probably gonna be the most front loaded movie of the summer all the fans of the show will rush to see it opening weekend. After that Expect a huge drop. At the end of the year it won't be even in the top5 maybe not even in the top 6.

 

[StorminNorman]

First of all you are expecting the movie to live up to your expectation which you then assume that everyone else has the same expectations. If a movie doesn't live up to expectations then it didn't live up to expectations, but can still be a success.

Again - it has nothing to do with MY expectations. It has to do with what I fully believe are WB's expectations - which are pretty easy to spot if you look at the way they have treated this movie. In the end it really is WB's expectations that matter - not mine, not yours not Bob and Joe and Jonie - its the studio. If a film does not meet the Studio's expectations its a failure.

The Scorpion King was only loosely tied in to the Mummy series it was simply a spin off.

Yes, but I think it helped show that the Mummy franchise is not exactly the strongest. I have heard no one, outside of fanboy-centric message boards, talk about this movie. I want Mummy 3 to do well, I want it to do VERY well - I am just not sure if its going to make over 180 mil.

There are people out there who are fanatics toward the X-files absolutely obsessed with the show who also think Batman is a cool character. I know people who don't plan to watch Batman opening day, but are gonnna watch X-files on opening day.

I am willing to bet that almost all X-Files fanboys are the type of people that are going to see The Dark Knight, anyway - again, TDK is not going to lose any meaningful money to X Files.

I have talked to people of all walks of life, no one has even mentioned X Files. I don't think X Files is going to be successful at all. It will be a film viewed by the real X Files fanboys and a portion of the casual X Files fanbase - little else.

I've applied plenty of logic you seem to ignore it. My logic has been that Batman is coming out in a spot that historically isn't the best position. My logic is that When TDK comes out people will not only be tired of Blockbusters , but a little worn out on Comic movies. My logic is that TDK doesn't appeal to as broad of an audience as Iron-man given it's tone. My logic is that TDK comes soon After Hancock not long before Mummy. My logic is that while in the past some movies have done better than the first it is very rare for a movie to leap up 100M more than the first. Even despite all that and many other things it's still possible to hit 300m however if it doesn't it will not be a failure and your probably the only person in the world who would think that. I can tell you right now the WB execs would never be DUMB enough to think that. They are far more educated in this matter than you and know better. As am I.

1. Historically blockbuster movies aren't released on the weekend - that doesn't necessarily mean its a BAD weekend, just not one that has a history of success. Harry Potter, a film that is historically a Winter film in a genre that tends to do far better in the winter than the summer, made just shy of 300 Mil on the same weekend.

2. I think movie goers will probably skip over Hulk and Hellboy - I see neither being huge box office winners, so I don't think the general audience will be tired of "comic book movies". More importantly is the fact that I really don't think The Dark Knight as "another comic book film", the tone is completely different. Again - with everyone I have talked to, and its a large number of people of all ages and interests and background - The Dark Knight tends to be universally interesting.

3. Hancock could play an impact, Mummy will not.

4. Its also rare for a movie to be as badly hurt by previous films as Batman Begins was. Batman and Robin turned people off the franchise - it hurt and limited the audience. Batman Begins has made people interested in the franchise again, through DVD and Cable viewings. I am looking for a similar jump that Matrix 2 had.

5. WB executives are educated?

That comment aside, if you don't think WB isn't staking their summer success on TDK, you are delusional. Again - this film has been pushed and positioned by WB to be the event movie of the summer, if this movie doesn't do event movie type numbers, they will be disappointed.